arXiv subjects

Ian Gemp

Publications and source records attributed to Ian Gemp.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Paradoxes of Game Theoretic Equilibria and Price of Anarchy

For decades, static solution concepts (Nash, Correlated, and Coarse Correlated Equilibria) and the Price of Anarchy (PoA) have formed the bedrock of algorithmic game theory, with no-regret learning proving fast convergence to such game-theoretic equilibria. We show that reducing multi-agent learning to static equilibrium and black-box regret analysis obscures underlying dynamic disequilibrium and game theoretic bounds. First, interior Nash equilibria lack $C^1$ vector field information, meaning agents cannot distinguish aligned from strictly opposing incentives. Inheriting this geometry, the worst-case pure Nash equilibria dictating robust PoA bounds manifest as topologically unstable strict saddles, and in canonical congestion games, as global repellers supported on almost everywhere strictly dominated strategies. Anchoring efficiency guarantees to these unstable states causes algebraic sensitivity; we prove that accommodating all strictly positive affine costs renders the PoA unbounded. Furthermore, projecting learning trajectories onto the discrete simplex of correlated play systematically accommodates non-rationalizable behavior. Evaluating dynamics via Coarse Correlated Equilibria or proximal refinements fails to preclude strictly dominated strategies. Moreover, optimal $O(1/T)$ swap-regret minimization does not preclude macroscopic turbulence, manifesting as chaotic limit sets even in minimal games. Finally, we examine the non-atomic limit of congestion games. Though considered highly stable with tight sub-linear $\Theta(p/\ln p)$ PoA bounds (where $p$ is the polynomial degree), we prove that under discrete-time learning, the unique equilibrium destabilizes into Li-Yorke chaos and global attractors whose time-averaged inefficiency degrades exponentially as $2^p$. These results necessitate re-evaluating worst-case equilibrium frameworks for dynamically grounded metrics.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Nash without Numbers: A Social Choice Approach to Mixed Equilibria in Context-Ordinal Games

Nash equilibrium serves as a fundamental mathematical tool in economics and game theory. However, it classically assumes knowledge of player utilities, whereas economics generally regards preferences as more fundamental. To leverage equilibrium analysis in strategic scenarios, one must first elicit numerical utilities consistent with player preferences, a delicate and time-consuming process. In this work, we forgo precise utilities and generalize the Nash equilibrium to a setting where we only assume a player is capable of providing an ordinal ranking of their actions within the context of other players' joint actions. The key technical challenge is to rethink the definition of a best-response. While the classical definition identifies actions maximizing expected payoff, we naturally look towards social choice theory for how to aggregate preferences to identify the most preferred actions. We define this generalized notion of a context-ordinal Nash equilibrium, establish its existence under mild conditions on aggregation methods, introduce notions of regularization, approximation, and regret, explore complexity for simple settings, and develop learning rules for computing such equilibria. In doing so, we provide a generalization of Nash equilibrium and demonstrate its direct applicability to elicited preferences in human experiments.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Tight Inapproximability for Welfare-Maximizing Autobidding Equilibria

We examine the complexity of computing welfare- and revenue-maximizing equilibria in autobidding second-price auctions subject to return-on-spend (RoS) constraints. We show that computing an autobidding equilibrium that approximates the welfare-optimal one within a factor of $2 - \epsilon$ is NP-hard for any constant $\epsilon > 0$. Moreover, deciding whether there exists an autobidding equilibrium that attains a $1/2 + \epsilon$ fraction of the optimal welfare -- unfettered by equilibrium constraints -- is NP-hard for any constant $\epsilon > 0$. This hardness result is tight in view of the fact that the price of anarchy (PoA) is at most $2$, and shows that deciding whether a non-trivial autobidding equilibrium exists -- one that is even marginally better than the worst-case guarantee -- is intractable. For revenue, we establish a stronger logarithmic inapproximability, while under the projection games conjecture, our reduction rules out even a polynomial approximation factor. These results significantly strengthen the APX-hardness of Li and Tang (AAAI '24). Furthermore, we refine our reduction in the presence of ML advice concerning the buyers' valuations, revealing again a close connection between the inapproximability threshold and PoA bounds. Finally, we examine relaxed notions of equilibrium attained by simple learning algorithms, establishing constant inapproximability for both revenue and welfare.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Chaos in Autobidding Auctions

As autobidding systems increasingly dominate online advertising auctions, characterizing their long-term dynamical behavior is brought to the fore. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of autobidders who optimize value subject to a return-on-spend (RoS) constraint under uniform bid scaling. Our main set of results show that simple autobidding dynamics can exhibit formally chaotic behavior. This significantly strengthens the recent results of Leme, Piliouras, Schneider, Spendlove, and Zuo (EC '24) that went as far as quasiperiodicity. Our proof proceeds by establishing that autobidding dynamics can simulate -- up to an arbitrarily small error -- a broad class of continuous-time nonlinear dynamical systems. This class contains as a special case Chua's circuit, a classic chaotic system renowned for its iconic double scroll attractor. Our reduction develops several modular gadgets, which we anticipate will find other applications going forward. Moreover, in discrete time, we show that different incarnations of mirror descent can exhibit Li-Yorke chaos, topological transitivity, and sensitivity to initial conditions, connecting along the way those dynamics to classic dynamical systems such as the logistic map and the Ricker population model. Taken together, our results reveal that the long-term behavior of ostensibly simple second-price autobidding auctions can be inherently unpredictable and complex.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

Active Evaluation of General Agents: Problem Definition and Comparison of Baseline Algorithms

As intelligent agents become more generally-capable, i.e. able to master a wide variety of tasks, the complexity and cost of properly evaluating them rises significantly. Tasks that assess specific capabilities of the agents can be correlated and stochastic, requiring many samples for accurate comparisons, leading to added costs. In this paper, we propose a formal definition and a conceptual framework for active evaluation of agents across multiple tasks, which assesses the performance of ranking algorithms as a function of number of evaluation data samples. Rather than curating, filtering, or compressing existing data sets as a preprocessing step, we propose an online framing: on every iteration, the ranking algorithm chooses the task and agents to sample scores from. Then, evaluation algorithms report a ranking of agents on each iteration and their performance is assessed with respect to the ground truth ranking over time. Several baselines are compared under different experimental contexts, with synthetic generated data and simulated online access to real evaluation data from Atari game-playing agents. We find that the classical Elo rating system -- while it suffers from well-known failure modes, in theory -- is a consistently reliable choice for efficient reduction of ranking error in practice. A recently-proposed method, Soft Condorcet Optimization, shows comparable performance to Elo on synthetic data and significantly outperforms Elo on real Atari agent evaluation. When task variation from the ground truth is high, selecting tasks based on proportional representation leads to higher rate of ranking error reduction.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Code World Models for General Game Playing

Large Language Models (LLMs) reasoning abilities are increasingly being applied to classical board and card games, but the dominant approach -- involving prompting for direct move generation -- has significant drawbacks. It relies on the model's implicit fragile pattern-matching capabilities, leading to frequent illegal moves and strategically shallow play. Here we introduce an alternative approach: We use the LLM to translate natural language rules and game trajectories into a formal, executable world model represented as Python code. This generated model -- comprising functions for state transition, legal move enumeration, and termination checks -- serves as a verifiable simulation engine for high-performance planning algorithms like Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS). In addition, we prompt the LLM to generate heuristic value functions (to make MCTS more efficient), and inference functions (to estimate hidden states in imperfect information games). Our method offers three distinct advantages compared to directly using the LLM as a policy: (1) Verifiability: The generated CWM serves as a formal specification of the game's rules, allowing planners to algorithmically enumerate valid actions and avoid illegal moves, contingent on the correctness of the synthesized model; (2) Strategic Depth: We combine LLM semantic understanding with the deep search power of classical planners; and (3) Generalization: We direct the LLM to focus on the meta-task of data-to-code translation, enabling it to adapt to new games more easily. We evaluate our agent on 10 different games, of which 4 are novel and created for this paper. 5 of the games are fully observed (perfect information), and 5 are partially observed (imperfect information). We find that our method outperforms or matches Gemini 2.5 Pro in 9 out of the 10 considered games.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Solving Zero-Sum Convex Markov Games

We contribute the first provable guarantees of global convergence to Nash equilibria (NE) in two-player zero-sum convex Markov games (cMGs) by using independent policy gradient methods. Convex Markov games, recently defined by Gemp et al. (2024), extend Markov decision processes to multi-agent settings with preferences that are convex over occupancy measures, offering a broad framework for modeling generic strategic interactions. However, even the fundamental min-max case of cMGs presents significant challenges, including inherent nonconvexity, the absence of Bellman consistency, and the complexity of the infinite horizon. We follow a two-step approach. First, leveraging properties of hidden-convex--hidden-concave functions, we show that a simple nonconvex regularization transforms the min-max optimization problem into a nonconvex-proximal Polyak-Lojasiewicz (NC-pPL) objective. Crucially, this regularization can stabilize the iterates of independent policy gradient methods and ultimately lead them to converge to equilibria. Second, building on this reduction, we address the general constrained min-max problems under NC-pPL and two-sided pPL conditions, providing the first global convergence guarantees for stochastic nested and alternating gradient descent-ascent methods, which we believe may be of independent interest.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

LLM-Mediated Guidance of MARL Systems

In complex multi-agent environments, achieving efficient learning and desirable behaviours is a significant challenge for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) systems. This work explores the potential of combining MARL with Large Language Model (LLM)-mediated interventions to guide agents toward more desirable behaviours. Specifically, we investigate how LLMs can be used to interpret and facilitate interventions that shape the learning trajectories of multiple agents. We experimented with two types of interventions, referred to as controllers: a Natural Language (NL) Controller and a Rule-Based (RB) Controller. The RB Controller showed a stronger impact than the NL Controller, which uses a small (7B/8B) LLM to simulate human-like interventions. Our findings indicate that agents particularly benefit from early interventions, leading to more efficient training and higher performance. Both intervention types outperform the baseline without interventions, highlighting the potential of LLM-mediated guidance to accelerate training and enhance MARL performance in challenging environments.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2025

Re-evaluating Open-ended Evaluation of Large Language Models

Evaluation has traditionally focused on ranking candidates for a specific skill. Modern generalist models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), decidedly outpace this paradigm. Open-ended evaluation systems, where candidate models are compared on user-submitted prompts, have emerged as a popular solution. Despite their many advantages, we show that the current Elo-based rating systems can be susceptible to and even reinforce biases in data, intentional or accidental, due to their sensitivity to redundancies. To address this issue, we propose evaluation as a 3-player game, and introduce novel game-theoretic solution concepts to ensure robustness to redundancy. We show that our method leads to intuitive ratings and provide insights into the competitive landscape of LLM development.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Deviation Ratings: A General, Clone-Invariant Rating Method

Many real-world multi-agent or multi-task evaluation scenarios can be naturally modelled as normal-form games due to inherent strategic (adversarial, cooperative, and mixed motive) interactions. These strategic interactions may be agentic (e.g. players trying to win), fundamental (e.g. cost vs quality), or complementary (e.g. niche finding and specialization). In such a formulation, it is the strategies (actions, policies, agents, models, tasks, prompts, etc.) that are rated. However, the rating problem is complicated by redundancy and complexity of N-player strategic interactions. Repeated or similar strategies can distort ratings for those that counter or complement them. Previous work proposed ``clone invariant'' ratings to handle such redundancies, but this was limited to two-player zero-sum (i.e. strictly competitive) interactions. This work introduces the first N-player general-sum clone invariant rating, called deviation ratings, based on coarse correlated equilibria. The rating is explored on several domains including LLMs evaluation.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Charting the Shapes of Stories with Game Theory

Stories are records of our experiences and their analysis reveals insights into the nature of being human. Successful analyses are often interdisciplinary, leveraging mathematical tools to extract structure from stories and insights from structure. Historically, these tools have been restricted to one dimensional charts and dynamic social networks; however, modern AI offers the possibility of identifying more fully the plot structure, character incentives, and, importantly, counterfactual plot lines that the story could have taken but did not take. In this work, we use AI to model the structure of stories as game-theoretic objects, amenable to quantitative analysis. This allows us to not only interrogate each character's decision making, but also possibly peer into the original author's conception of the characters' world. We demonstrate our proposed technique on Shakespeare's famous Romeo and Juliet. We conclude with a discussion of how our analysis could be replicated in broader contexts, including real-life scenarios.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Nash Equilibria via Stochastic Eigendecomposition

This work proposes a novel set of techniques for approximating a Nash equilibrium in a finite, normal-form game. It achieves this by constructing a new reformulation as solving a parameterized system of multivariate polynomials with tunable complexity. In doing so, it forges an itinerant loop from game theory to machine learning and back. We show a Nash equilibrium can be approximated with purely calls to stochastic, iterative variants of singular value decomposition and power iteration, with implications for biological plausibility. We provide pseudocode and experiments demonstrating solving for all equilibria of a general-sum game using only these readily available linear algebra tools.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Soft Condorcet Optimization for Ranking of General Agents

Driving progress of AI models and agents requires comparing their performance on standardized benchmarks; for general agents, individual performances must be aggregated across a potentially wide variety of different tasks. In this paper, we describe a novel ranking scheme inspired by social choice frameworks, called Soft Condorcet Optimization (SCO), to compute the optimal ranking of agents: the one that makes the fewest mistakes in predicting the agent comparisons in the evaluation data. This optimal ranking is the maximum likelihood estimate when evaluation data (which we view as votes) are interpreted as noisy samples from a ground truth ranking, a solution to Condorcet's original voting system criteria. SCO ratings are maximal for Condorcet winners when they exist, which we show is not necessarily true for the classical rating system Elo. We propose three optimization algorithms to compute SCO ratings and evaluate their empirical performance. When serving as an approximation to the Kemeny-Young voting method, SCO rankings are on average 0 to 0.043 away from the optimal ranking in normalized Kendall-tau distance across 865 preference profiles from the PrefLib open ranking archive. In a simulated noisy tournament setting, SCO achieves accurate approximations to the ground truth ranking and the best among several baselines when 59\% or more of the preference data is missing. Finally, SCO ranking provides the best approximation to the optimal ranking, measured on held-out test sets, in a problem containing 52,958 human players across 31,049 games of the classic seven-player game of Diplomacy.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2024

Convex Markov Games: A New Frontier for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Behavioral diversity, expert imitation, fairness, safety goals and others give rise to preferences in sequential decision making domains that do not decompose additively across time. We introduce the class of convex Markov games that allow general convex preferences over occupancy measures. Despite infinite time horizon and strictly higher generality than Markov games, pure strategy Nash equilibria exist. Furthermore, equilibria can be approximated empirically by performing gradient descent on an upper bound of exploitability. Our experiments reveal novel solutions to classic repeated normal-form games, find fair solutions in a repeated asymmetric coordination game, and prioritize safe long-term behavior in a robot warehouse environment. In the prisoner's dilemma, our algorithm leverages transient imitation to find a policy profile that deviates from observed human play only slightly, yet achieves higher per-player utility while also being three orders of magnitude less exploitable.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Visualizing 2x2 Normal-Form Games: twoxtwogame LaTeX Package

Normal-form games with two players, each with two strategies, are the most studied class of games. These so-called 2x2 games are used to model a variety of strategic interactions. They appear in game theory, economics, and artificial intelligence research. However, there lacks tools for describing and visualizing such games. This work introduces a LaTeX package for visualizing 2x2 games. This work has two goals: first, to provide high-quality tools and vector graphic visualizations, suitable for scientific publications. And second, to help promote standardization of names and representations of 2x2 games. The LaTeX package, twoxtwogame, is maintained on GitHub and mirrored on CTAN, and is available under a permissive Apache 2 license.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

NfgTransformer: Equivariant Representation Learning for Normal-form Games

Normal-form games (NFGs) are the fundamental model of strategic interaction. We study their representation using neural networks. We describe the inherent equivariance of NFGs -- any permutation of strategies describes an equivalent game -- as well as the challenges this poses for representation learning. We then propose the NfgTransformer architecture that leverages this equivariance, leading to state-of-the-art performance in a range of game-theoretic tasks including equilibrium-solving, deviation gain estimation and ranking, with a common approach to NFG representation. We show that the resulting model is interpretable and versatile, paving the way towards deep learning systems capable of game-theoretic reasoning when interacting with humans and with each other.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Approximating the Core via Iterative Coalition Sampling

The core is a central solution concept in cooperative game theory, defined as the set of feasible allocations or payments such that no subset of agents has incentive to break away and form their own subgroup or coalition. However, it has long been known that the core (and approximations, such as the least-core) are hard to compute. This limits our ability to analyze cooperative games in general, and to fully embrace cooperative game theory contributions in domains such as explainable AI (XAI), where the core can complement the Shapley values to identify influential features or instances supporting predictions by black-box models. We propose novel iterative algorithms for computing variants of the core, which avoid the computational bottleneck of many other approaches; namely solving large linear programs. As such, they scale better to very large problems as we demonstrate across different classes of cooperative games, including weighted voting games, induced subgraph games, and marginal contribution networks. We also explore our algorithms in the context of XAI, providing further evidence of the power of the core for such applications.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Steering Language Models with Game-Theoretic Solvers

Mathematical models of interactions among rational agents have long been studied in game theory. However these interactions are often over a small set of discrete game actions which is very different from how humans communicate in natural language. To bridge this gap, we introduce a framework that allows equilibrium solvers to work over the space of natural language dialogue generated by large language models (LLMs). Specifically, by modelling the players, strategies and payoffs in a "game" of dialogue, we create a binding from natural language interactions to the conventional symbolic logic of game theory. Given this binding, we can ask existing game-theoretic algorithms to provide us with strategic solutions (e.g., what string an LLM should generate to maximize payoff in the face of strategic partners or opponents), giving us predictors of stable, rational conversational strategies. We focus on three domains that require different negotiation strategies: scheduling meetings, trading fruit and debate, and evaluate an LLM's generated language when guided by solvers. We see that LLMs that follow game-theory solvers result in dialogue generations that are less exploitable than the control (no guidance from solvers), and the language generated results in higher rewards, in all negotiation domains. We discuss future implications of this work, and how game-theoretic solvers that can leverage the expressivity of natural language can open up a new avenue of guiding language research.

cs.CL↗