arXiv subjects

Iason Saganas

Publications and source records attributed to Iason Saganas.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Nonparametric Variational Inference Reconstruction of the Cosmic Expansion History from SNe Ia -- the charm2 code

Cosmological analyses using the latest set of type Ia SNe data weakly favor an evolving dark energy (EDE) model without strongly disfavoring the standard LCDM paradigm. Nonparametric reconstructions of the expansion history may reveal signal features potentially missed by a parametric LCDM model without laying out a specific functional form for the evolution of dark energy. Information field theory (IFT) is a Bayesian framework for optimal, nonparametric reconstruction algorithms. In this work, we present charm2, the successor to charm1, a previous IFT-based code to reconstruct the cosmic energy density's redshift evolution from SNe Ia. We apply our reconstruction algorithm to the Union2.1, Pantheon+, DESY5 and DESY5-Dovekie data sets to investigate the agreement between the nonparametric reconstruction and the signal suggested by a parametric, flat LCDM model. To enable an accurate Gaussian approximation, we employ geometric variational inference, which finds a coordinate transformation through which a curved posterior gets "flattened". The redshift evolution of the energy density can then be traced on a double-logarithmic scale, which, after de-trending, is well described by a stationary Gaussian process. The nonparametric charm2 reconstructions using the Union2.1 and Pantheon+ data sets are consistent with flat LCDM signal fields. The DESY5 and DESY5-Dovekie reconstructions deviate from flat LCDM comparison fields and are compatible with an evolving dark energy signal. However, using the evidence lower bound (ELBO) measure for model selection, we find no conclusive evidence supporting a preference for non-flat-LCDM features in any of the data sets. We note that at current DESY5 noise levels, the ELBO tends to favor flat LCDM over our nonparametric model although the latter better recovers the ground truth in synthetic EDE data; a trend reversing only at ~7x lower noise covariance.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

A revision of the lifetime of submoons: tidal dynamics with the Euler-Lagrange equation

Submoons, moons orbiting other moons, may be exotic environments capable of hosting extraterrestrial life. We extend previous studies to revise the maximum lifetime of these objects due to planetary, lunar and sublunar tidal migration. Using the Euler-Lagrange equation with a tidal dissipation process as specified by the Constant Geometric Lag model, we derive and solve the governing equations numerically to map the semi-major axis parameter space for star-planet-moon-submoon systems in which the submoon could be massive enough to host life. We find that Earth could have hosted asteroid-sized submoons ($\sim10^{15}\mathrm{kg}$), whereas a submoon near the previously proposed upper limit ($\sim4.6\cdot10^{17}\mathrm{kg}$) would have driven the Moon $\sim30\%$ farther from Earth than its current orbit. A Warm Jupiter system like Kepler1625 has greater potential of hosting a massive submoon. We found that a submoon of around $10\%M_{\text{Luna}}$ could survive if Kepler1625b's hypothesized moon were $68\%$ farther away then what the best-fit model suggests ($67R_{\mathrm{p}}$ instead of $40R_{\mathrm{p}}$). Giant submoons of mass $1.8M_{\oplus}$ are stable in a Kepler1625-like system. In these cases, the moon orbit is wide ($> 100R_{\mathrm{p}}$). Decreasing the submoon mass to a habitability prerequisite of $0.5M_{\oplus}$, likely needed for a stable atmosphere and plate tectonics, leads to a smaller total number of stable iterations relative to the $m_{sm}=1.8M_{\oplus}$ case. In fact, we identified a minimum number of stable iterations on intermediate submoon mass-scales of around $0.1M_{\oplus}$. This is likely due to an interplay between small tidal forces at small submoon masses and small Roche-Limits at very high submoon masses. If submoon formation pathways in Warm Jupiter systems prefer such intermediate mass-scales, habitable submoons could be a rare phenomenon.

astro-ph.EP↗