arXiv subjects

Ibne Farabi Shihab

Publications and source records attributed to Ibne Farabi Shihab.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

When Is Benchmark Contamination Detectable? Information Limits and Power-Calibrated Audits

Behavioral contamination detectors can return "no evidence" either because a benchmark is clean or because the audit has little power. We formalize this distinction for a benchmark in which an unknown fraction alpha of items was seen during training. With matched clean and seen controls, the behavioral channel is the sparse mixture Q_alpha = (1 - alpha) P_0 + alpha P_1, and an exact second-moment argument shows that detectability is governed by alpha * rho * sqrt(m), where rho^2 = chi^2(P_1 || P_0) measures behavioral separability. Any scalar detector reduces to its efficacy, ef = |E_1 f - E_0 f| / sqrt(Var_0(f)) <= rho, which can be estimated from controls before the audit is run. A separate sample-split certificate lower-bounds alpha distribution-free, without requiring an orientation assumption. Our empirical finding is two-sided. Frozen calibration efficacy predicts held-out power curves, with R^2 = 0.83-0.98 across six exact-permutation channels, but the efficacy-only Gaussian budget is miscalibrated at the small sample sizes it prescribes, failing in 9/9 gate-passing channels even though efficacy itself transports. The failure is in the inversion, not the calibration. A predeclared two-stage planner that simulates the deployed test repairs the budgets, is uniformly conservative, and abstains when its probe does not transport. The certificate is valid but vacuous at audit scale, and a five-seed paired injection study recovers the mechanism ordering verbatim > paraphrase > surface, in which the apparent answer-only signal is explained by baseline drift. We report the audit contract and its failures together: a non-rejection is interpretable only alongside the efficacy, budget, and validity gates that produced it.

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arXiv2026

Evaluator Ensembles Under Reward Hacking: Covariance Geometry and Finite-Search Guarantees

Language-model judges and reward models enable scalable supervision, but finite optimization can exploit evaluator errors rather than improve response quality. We characterize this failure through the covariance geometry of evaluator ensembles. For calibrated judges, the ensemble mean retains common-mode error along the all-ones direction, whereas cross-judge disagreement captures only orthogonal error. Consequently, disagreement can be high despite robust aggregation, or low while shared response-dependent errors persist. We prove that common-mode error is not identifiable from internal judge scores alone. Under a joint sub-Gaussian model, we bound best-of-K selection overstatement and target-quality regret, extending the guarantees to predictably adaptive search under conditional calibration. The resulting search terms scale as the square root of log K and are asymptotically tight for Gaussian projected errors. We further show that noisy quality proxies introduce artificial rank-one covariance without changing disagreement, and propose a bounded two-anchor Bernstein certificate for finite-search error and regret. Fixed-seed Gaussian stress tests over 120 (J, rho, K) configurations and real-model audits validate the theory while revealing the limits of disagreement-based diagnostics under increasing search pressure.

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arXiv2026

Quality-Diversity Stress Tests for Process Reward Models:What Archive Coverage Can and Cannot Certify

Process reward models (PRMs) score intermediate reasoning steps and are widely used for search, ranking, and training, but optimization can exploit these learned proxies by increasing reward while turning correct reasoning into incorrect reasoning. We formulate PRM stress testing as a quality-diversity search problem using MAP-Elites, retaining the most severe correctness-flipping edit in each behavior-space region while separating search coverage from exploit coverage. We characterize what such archives certify: finite-cell repair bounds covered-cell tail risk and average residual severity but cannot bound the worst remaining cell from covered fraction alone; under Lipschitz post-repair loss and metric-cover auditing, the residual is bounded by archive fitting error plus the Lipschitz constant times the covering radius. A controlled landscape validates this certificate and the impossibility of any fraction-only worst-case guarantee. On real PRMs, the search reveals an aggregation-dependent vulnerability in Qwen2.5-Math-PRM-7B: padding yields 44 strict exploits with maximum gain 0.294 under mean pooling versus one exploit under minimum readout; a matched syntactic control isolates the mechanism, and an RLHFlow value-head model shows the same qualitative effect with maximum gain 0.005. A predeclared paired LoRA repair protocol reduces exploit rates from 0.148 to 0.037 to 0.074, lowers the worst attack from 0.333 to 0.177 to 0.212, improves ranking AUROC without degrading best-of-4 accuracy, attributes gains to adversarial fine-tuning rather than archive diversity, and is confirmed by independent unpaired replications (44 to 1, clean-split worst gain 0.0092, MATH-500 41 to 0, clean ranking 40/40).

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arXiv2026

Opportunity Is Not Realizability: Selection-Valid Diagnostics for Multi-LLM Routing

Oracle routing measures how much a pool of language models could gain from per-query selection, but the diagnostic has two flaws: testing against a best fixed model selected on the same examples invalidates paired inference, and a full-information oracle sees outcomes no deployable router observes. We separate three estimands (outcome-oracle opportunity, the Bayes-optimal gain from a declared pre-answer signal, and the held-out gain of a learned router) and prove selection-valid confidence intervals that survive choosing the best fixed model or the best member of a router family, a signal-information sandwich, and a $(1-1/e)$ greedy guarantee for building compact pools from submodular complementary coverage. On eight checkpoints from six families over four benchmarks, selection-valid intervals certify a population oracle gap of $9.7$--$30.7$ points on every task, yet the strongest deployable prompt router recovers only $7.5$--$14.4\%$ of it, and the simultaneous interval for the best of eleven tested policies has lower limit zero throughout. The realizable share of oracle opportunity is small and certifiable: strong routers beat the best fixed model, and most of the gap remains.

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arXiv2026

Stateful CARS: Exact Cross-History Reuse for Policy-Constrained LLM Agents

Tool-using language-model agents face constraints whose meaning changes with observations and prior actions. We study exact sampling from the model distribution conditioned on a hard stateful validator while reusing invalidity certificates across histories. Stateful CARS freezes a bank of sound state--continuation schemas within each attempt and removes every trajectory containing a certified continuation at a matching abstract state. An exact residual Doob transform samples from the resulting proposal. We give a checkable future-validity bisimulation condition, prove schema soundness, adaptive exactness, i.i.d.\ outputs, almost-sure termination, monotone acceptance, and compression invariance, and characterize computation by the number of reachable full-history product states. This number can be exponential for a history-dependent language model; the evaluated method therefore makes no generic finite-trie scalability claim. On enumerable workflows, its analytic law matches the valid conditional to $10^{-16}$ at validity probability $6\times10^{-8}$, whereas state-aware local decoding can be $0.97$ away. A matched comparison is negative: observation-keyed official CARS is cheaper in sampler steps (root/Stateful ratio $0.942$ $[0.934,0.951]$), and the Qwen comparison is null ($0.99$ $[0.90,1.08]$). Cross-history transfer helps only in an internal matched-key ablation ($1.27\times$). Thus the evidence supports exact schema-induced conditioning, not a systems advantage over CARS.

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arXiv2026

Sub-Quadratic Bisimulation Metrics via Approximate Nearest Neighbors: Coverage-Augmented Guarantees and Computable Two-Sided Certificates

Bisimulation metrics quantify behavioral similarity in Markov decision processes, but their Wasserstein fixed-point operator updates every state pair and incurs quadratic pairwise work. We give a certificate-carrying sub-quadratic method for MDPs with bounded transition support and a useful low-dimensional indexing representation: an approximate-nearest-neighbor index selects the pairs updated by the exact restricted operator, while monotone lower and upper runs enclose the exact metric at every sweep. The main analytical result is a coverage-augmented anytime bound: local index quality alone cannot control global error, because uncovered pairs retain their initialization gap. The limiting error is at most $\max(ρ,\eop/(1-γ))$, and with exact covered backups the lower arm satisfies $\|\dann-d\|_\infty=ρ$. Because $ρ$ depends on the unknown exact metric, the algorithm returns the observable sandwich width instead; agreement of the induced lower and upper clusterings certifies exact recovery of the covered aggregation. A reward-oblivious lower bound shows sub-quadratic index-first coverage cannot remove the coverage term, while a separate adaptive lower bound requires $Ω(|\Scal|)$ pair evaluations. Exact-operator experiments verify the identity and enclosure in every seeded run, and timing experiments recover quadratic versus sub-quadratic scaling under both cheap and full Wasserstein backups. On the grouped $|\Scal|=64$ benchmark, exact restricted refinement reaches the exact-metric skyline once retrieval covers roughly half of all pairs, while independently trained MICo and DBC baselines stay $22$-$33\times$ above that skyline at every retrieval budget. Taxi shows the certificate abstaining under an uninformative embedding, while a $2500$-state gridworld improves over a reward-only metric by $28.6\%$ using $12.8\%$ of one quadratic sweep.

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arXiv2026

CODS: Iterative Bellman-Residual Data Selection for Reusable Offline Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning repeatedly trains policies from a fixed transition pool, making redundant data costly across seeds and hyperparameters, while naive subsampling can remove rare transitions needed for long-horizon credit assignment. We introduce CODS, a critic-guided selector that alternates between fitting an algorithm-matched critic and acquiring high-residual transitions before freezing a reusable subset. Unlike prioritized replay, CODS produces a static artifact; unlike one-shot residual selection, it refreshes scores as the critic changes. At a 10\% budget, CODS retains 96.6\% of eligible-pool performance across 20 valid D4RL task--algorithm cells. It exceeds ReDOR and OPER on 19/20 cells and every other subset baseline on 20/20; all six subset advantages remain significant under predeclared hierarchical inference with Holm correction. Holding total selector updates fixed, five acquisition rounds improve four representative cells by 11.23 points over one round and saturate thereafter. Equal-pass and equal-hour evaluations clarify that reuse, rather than a single-run speedup, creates the compute advantage. Mechanism and corruption interventions expose both useful sparse-reward enrichment and sensitivity to outliers. Finally, a whole-trace extension retains 95.4\% of pooled ALFWorld success and 96.5\% of pooled GSM8K exact match. CODS is therefore a reusable selection procedure, not a formal coreset guarantee.

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arXiv2026

Finite Constant Frontiers and Auditable Regret Certificates for Average-Reward Reinforcement Learning

Average-reward reinforcement-learning regret is known up to logarithmic factors, but the numerical content of published guarantees is difficult to compare because probability mode, structural parameter, logarithmic normalization, prior information, and planning assumptions differ. We introduce a constant-aware comparison protocol and derive an explicit finite lower certificate for communicating MDPs. The construction is a binary tree of two-state blocks; its proof uses exact trajectory-level Bernoulli KL divergence and keeps action budget, diameter, occupancy, navigation cost, and terminal bias explicit. A common closed-form envelope improves the published coefficient $0.015$ across a finite frontier: $0.0200$ in a moderate regime and up to $0.0291$ under stronger action, diameter, and horizon conditions, a $94\%$ increase. The limiting coefficient is $\frac1{32}\sqrt{(A-3)/A}$. For upper bounds, we give an auditable composition rule for a span-constrained optimistic learner, but do not claim a coefficient while adaptive directional-variance and planning certificates remain open. We also formalize valid expectation conversion and constant comparability. Controlled diagnostics test diameter dependence, bonus-by-width interactions, span misspecification, and the finite lower certificate on its exact family.

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arXiv2026

Discrepancy-Rounded Fair Bandits with Static and Time-Varying Exposure Floors

Minimum-exposure constraints arise in recommendation, content curation, and regulated allocation when each provider, arm, or group must receive guaranteed exposure inside a period rather than only in aggregate. We study stochastic bandits with exact exposure floors and show that the right object is a rounding problem: a fractional fair schedule is realized as integral pulls, and the exposure error is exactly a discrepancy vector. The main contribution is a blockwise model with time-varying floors. BDQ-UCB satisfies every block floor deterministically and has fair regret governed by the nonmandatory budget $R$, not the horizon $T$, with high-probability regret $O(\sqrt{KR\log(KT)})$. A MOSS residual variant attains $O(\sqrt{KR})$, and a matching lower bound gives the minimax rate $Θ(\sqrt{KR})$, even with positive mandatory exposure; a kl-UCB$^{++}$ residual rule adds instance-dependent optimality. The formulation becomes essential for overlapping group floors: per-arm rounding can violate a group constraint by $Ω(s)$ in the group size, whereas Beck--Fiala null-space rounding meets every group floor within the block budget with violation below the arm degree $t$, and composes with UCB at the same $R$-parametrized regret. For learned group plans, we close disjoint systems at $\widetildeΘ(\sqrt{KT})$, give a dual-ledger decomposition explaining why naive index rules fail under overlap, and prove a plan-sampling rule that is pathwise feasible under an initial cover-slack condition and attains a conditional $\widetilde O(\sqrt{KT})$ guarantee, leaving the condition-free overlap rate open. Experiments on synthetic floors, MovieLens-100k genre exposure, and deployment stress tests show exact feasibility without penalty tuning and regret competitive with tuned Lagrangian baselines.

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arXiv2026

Graph Dimensionality Reduction for Contextual Bandits: Structure-Specific Regret Bounds under Approximate Smoothness and Noisy Eigenspaces

Contextual bandits with graph-structured arms arise in recommendation, citation retrieval, and social advertising, where arms connected on a graph tend to share reward signal. Standard dimensionality reduction ignores this structure, inflating exploration cost by a factor of $d/k$. We propose GraphDR-LinUCB, which projects arm features onto the graph's low-frequency spectral subspace and runs linear UCB in the resulting $k$-dimensional space. We prove the first $\wtO(k\sqrt{T})$ regret bound for spectral-projection-based contextual bandits, reducing dimension dependence from $d$ to $k$; a perturbation argument extends this to noisy graphs, with an explicit penalty for reward-smoothness mismatch and graph-estimation error. Our central theoretical finding is that the high-frequency reward component need not incur a worst-case linear-in-$T$ penalty: its actual cost depends on its realized impact along the played path, not on its total energy. A simple spectral comparison between subspaces ($Γ_k$) predicts which reducer wins on a given dataset, correctly calling five of six real-dataset outcomes without any fitted threshold. Across a synthetic benchmark and six real datasets (MovieLens, Amazon, LastFM, ogbn-arxiv, MIND), GraphDR-LinUCB reduces cumulative regret by $15\times$ over full-dimensional LinUCB and outperforms competing graph-aware methods on five of six; the single failure is precisely where the graph's spectral subspace is misaligned with the reward.

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arXiv2026

EST-PRM: Stress-Testing Process Reward Models Before They Become Load-Bearing

Process reward models (PRMs) are widely used in language-model training with dense step-level supervision. They assume PRM scores are stable proxies for step correctness under label-preserving transformations. These transformations change reasoning structure but preserve final answers. We argue this assumption is not well validated. Such transformations can change how PRM scores relate to correctness signals, leading to different failure modes across models.To address this gap, we introduce \textbf{EST-PRM}, a stress-testing framework for dense process rewards. It applies three transformations: (1) step inflation, (2) dependency-aware step reordering, and (3) confidence markers. A vulnerability decomposition is defined that separates reward inflation from loss of correctness sensitivity. Five PRM-style models are evaluated on 4,687 reasoning chains from MATH-500, GSM8K, and PRMBench.The results indicate clear differences in vulnerability patterns across models. Math-Shepherd shows the strongest sensitivity to position perturbations, with a Pearson correlation drop of $0.152 \pm 0.038$ and a $32.8 \pm 4.9\%$ score inflation rate. Qwen2.5-Math-PRM is most affected by step inflation, reaching a $47.6 \pm 4.3\%$ inflation rate. Confidence-based perturbations also distort reward calibration, revealing inconsistencies in correctness estimation. Three mitigation strategies are evaluated, highlighting trade-offs between robustness coverage and false-positive rates.

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arXiv2026

Dynamic Proxy-Mixing: Transferring Replay Controllers from Small to Large Models for Continual Instruction Tuning

Continual instruction tuning updates a language model through a sequence of new domains, yet each update can progressively erode previously learned capabilities and alignment behavior. Replay is the standard mitigation, but fixed replay ratios are inherently limited because the optimal mixture varies with the current domain, the training stage, and the evolving vulnerability of prior behaviors. We propose PROX-YMIX, a framework that learns a dynamic replay controller on a small proxy model and transfers the frozen controller to a larger target. The controller never observes future tasks and constructs its state from normalized validation losses and their temporal dynamics, producing a masked mixture over the current task and accessible replay buffers. Our core empirical hypothesis is forgetting mirroring: task vulnerability rankings remain largely consistent across model scales even when absolute loss magnitudes differ. We validate this assumption empirically before transferring controllers across scales. On LLaMA-3-8B across five continual instruction tuning sequences, PROXYMIX improves average accuracy by 3.4 points, reduces final forgetting by 3.5 points, and raises safety score by 5.8 points over the strongest non-oracle baseline, at roughly 50x lower policy learning cost than Oracle Target RL. The framework is leakage free and architecture independent at the interface level, and we also identify settings where the proxy assumption breaks down, highlighting limitations for robust deployment.

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arXiv2026

Auditing Near-Optimal Policies Can Be Exponentially Hard: Conditional Query Lower Bounds via Occupancy Rashomon Capacity

When many reinforcement-learning policies achieve near-optimal return, a post-hoc auditor may have to distinguish among many behaviorally distinct but return-equivalent policies. We formalize this phenomenon through an occupancy-measure analogue of Rashomon capacity: the metric entropy of the near-optimal occupancy region, computed relative to an audited deployment class. Because occupancy measures identify behavior only up to occupancy equivalence, we formulate auditing at the occupancy-class level and distinguish exact local-query oracles from noisy sample-query oracles. Our main exact-query result is conditional: if the audited class contains a $2/H$-separated near-optimal packing whose local signatures are $b$-sparse, then exact local-query auditing requires $Ω(M/b)$ queries; when the packing realizes deployment-class capacity and $b=O(1)$, this becomes $Ω(2^{\Hopt^\cF(\eps)})$. We give a finite discounted hidden-branch MDP attaining this bound and show the exact Bayes success law. For noisy hidden-trigger testing, we prove a mixture lower bound of order $M/β$, where $β$ is the per-sample KL signal, yielding $Ω(2^{\Hopt^\cF(\eps)}/(ρ^2Δ^2))$ for capacity-order packings with $β=O(ρ^2Δ^2)$. We also provide a static target-recognition information lower bound, a transcript-compatible oracle-cover verification upper bound, and a canonical occupancy regularizer whose regularized audited capacity collapses when a trusted reference occupancy is available. Controlled benchmarks distinguish positive sparse-signature instances from high-capacity negative controls where exact auditing is easy, and map the noisy-trigger law to post-processed continuous-control and visual-RL auditing regimes.

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arXiv2026

Canonicalized Stable-List Replay for Private Federated Continual Learning over Language-Model Embeddings

Federated continual learning (FCL) lets distributed clients adapt language-model heads to evolving NLP tasks without sharing raw text. Under user-level differential privacy (DP), replay-based continual learning faces a structural obstacle: clients can release only small noisy lists of candidate replay summaries, and those lists are unordered across clients. We introduce Canonicalized Stable-List Replay (CSLR), where clients privately produce candidate replay distributions over a shared sentence-embedding space and the server aligns them using signatures induced by public anchor sentences. The anchors provide identifiability for aggregation rather than additional replay data. We prove that, under an observable anchor-signature margin, $O(\log(N/η)/p)$ anchors distinguish $N$ candidate list elements with probability at least $1-η$, and we give a scoped anchorless non-identifiability result for unordered-label oracle models. Across five seeds on continual classification, NER, and dialogue benchmarks, CSLR improves the final average task metric by 3.9--5.6 points over the strongest non-CSLR DP baseline at $\eps=4$ under the reported replay-release budget, while also outperforming Hungarian and optimal-transport matchers. The formal privacy guarantee covers replay release; end-to-end private training additionally requires composition with a private optimizer for task-head updates.

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arXiv2026

Topology-Aware State Abstraction with Tangle Cores for Markov Decision Processes

State abstraction in reinforcement learning is usually formulated as a partition of states based on reward and transition similarity. This excludes a common structural pattern in navigation, graph, and hierarchical decision problems: interface states such as doors, hubs, and bottlenecks naturally participate in more than one region. We introduce \emph{tangle-core abstraction}, an overlapping state-abstraction framework based on graph tangles of empirical transition graphs. The method constructs abstract states from consistently oriented low-order separations and represents shared interfaces through a membership kernel rather than a hard partition. We give value-preservation guarantees for the induced overlapping abstract MDP under an explicit action-consistency condition, identify an interior-homogeneity/boundary-leakage error decomposition, and prove a quantitative interface-overlap result showing when hard partitions incur an avoidable boundary error. Empirically, tangle-core abstractions achieve favorable compression--return tradeoffs against reward-aware, learned, topological-map, and graph-partitioning baselines across bottlenecked tabular domains, procedurally generated mazes, and MiniGrid representations. We also identify a clear failure regime in which transition topology is uninformative, where tangles predictably offer little benefit. These results position graph tangles as an effective topology-aware abstraction prior for decision problems with shared interface structure.

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arXiv2026

Grounded Decoding: Retrieval-Anchored Probability Fusion for Faithful RAG

As retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems scale, it becomes increasingly challenging to ensure faithful grounding in external evidence. Large language models may still prioritize parametric knowledge over retrieved information when conflicts arise. We propose a novel training-free decoding framework, \emph{Grounded Decoding}, designed to improve factual consistency in RAG without modifying model parameters. Unlike standard approaches that rely on a single conditional distribution, our method constructs two matched-prompt distributions at every generation step: (1) a full RAG distribution conditioned on the query, retrieved documents, and generated prefix, and (2) a retrieval-only distribution conditioned solely on retrieved evidence and the same prefix. The final next-token distribution is derived as the unique solution to a KL-barycenter objective over the probability simplex, yielding a normalized geometric fusion of the two distributions.This formulation naturally recovers standard RAG when the grounding weight is zero and smoothly shifts probability mass toward retrieved evidence as grounding strength increases. We further introduce a conflict-aware adaptive weighting scheme that dynamically adjusts grounding based on distributional disagreement and retriever confidence. Experiments on ALCE, Natural Questions, and FActScore demonstrate consistent improvements in factual accuracy and citation quality over standard RAG and competitive decoding-time baselines, while maintaining fluency. Our results indicate that probability-level fusion provides a strong and efficient alternative to logit-level intervention methods for faithful RAG decoding.

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arXiv2026

Continual Calibration: Coverage Can Collapse Before Accuracy in Lifelong LLM Fine-Tuning

Continual learning for large language models is typically evaluated through accuracy retention under sequential fine-tuning. We argue that this perspective is incomplete, because uncertainty reliability can degrade earlier and more sharply than top-1 performance. We study this empirically by measuring conformal coverage and calibration error on sequentially fine-tuned models across three model families and eight task sequences drawn primarily from classification and multiple-choice benchmarks. Across the classification-style settings we study, coverage loss exceeds accuracy loss by a factor of roughly $3.4\times \pm 0.5\times$ on average across seeds; in the most pronounced case, coverage drops from $0.92$ to $0.61$, while accuracy remains within three points of baseline. Standard continual-learning methods that preserve accuracy do not automatically preserve coverage, and naive calibration baselines recover only part of the gap. We propose calibration replay, a lightweight post-hoc procedure that maintains a task-specific held-out buffer and refits a task-specific conformal threshold under the current model after each update. It adds no training-time gradient cost, uses less than one percent of the memory of ordinary experience replay, and typically restores coverage to within two points of nominal at buffer size $m = 200$. We accompany the empirical study with a drift decomposition, a finite-sample recovery theorem showing exact conformal validity under exchangeability, and a mixture-validity proposition explaining why pooled thresholds do not suffice. Our guarantees are stated for classification-style tasks with task-specific buffers; extensions to open-ended generation are exploratory.

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arXiv2026

Coverage-Based Calibration for Post-Training Quantization via Weighted Set Cover over Outlier Channels

Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) compresses large language models to low bit-widths using a small calibration set, and its quality depends strongly on which samples are chosen. We identify a failure mode in which calibration samples fail to activate outlier channels, hidden dimensions with unusually large activations, causing the quantizer to underestimate their dynamic range and producing per-channel reconstruction errors that dominate layer-wise loss. Motivated by this observation, we argue that PTQ calibration quality is governed more by weighted outlier-channel coverage than by generic sample representativeness, and formulate calibration selection as a weighted set cover problem over outlier channels. The objective is monotone submodular, and the greedy algorithm, COVERCAL, operates on pre-computed activation statistics and requires no GPU time at selection. We further show that the weight choice is internally consistent: under a stylized clipping model, missed weighted coverage upper-bounds surrogate loss, justifying the weighted coverage objective as principled rather than purely empirical. Across LLaMA-2, LLaMA-3, and Mistral, under AWQ and GPTQ backends and five downstream evaluations, COVERCAL improves over random, max-perplexity, max-activation-variance, and stratified baselines, with the largest gains at small calibration budgets. At INT4 with 128 samples, COVERCAL improves MMLU by 1.2 to 1.5 points over random calibration and reduces perplexity degradation by 15 to 30\%; with 64 samples, it matches or exceeds random calibration at 256. The contribution is not a new PTQ backend but a formulation of calibration selection as weighted outlier coverage, with a simple, efficient algorithm and a surrogate-based justification.

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