arXiv subjects

Ibtihal Ferwana

Publications and source records attributed to Ibtihal Ferwana.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Designing Discontinuities

Discontinuities can be fairly arbitrary but also cause a significant impact on outcomes in larger systems. Indeed, their arbitrariness is why they have been used to infer causal relationships among variables in numerous settings. Regression discontinuity from econometrics assumes the existence of a discontinuous variable that splits the population into distinct partitions to estimate the causal effects of a given phenomenon. Here we consider the design of partitions for a given discontinuous variable to optimize a certain effect previously studied using regression discontinuity. To do so, we propose a quantization-theoretic approach to optimize the effect of interest, first learning the causal effect size of a given discontinuous variable and then applying dynamic programming for optimal quantization design of discontinuities to balance the gain and loss in that effect size. We also develop a computationally-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm for the dynamic programming formulation of optimal quantization. We demonstrate our approach by designing optimal time zone borders for counterfactuals of social capital, social mobility, and health. This is based on regression discontinuity analyses we perform on novel data, which may be of independent empirical interest.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2023

Optimal Recovery for Causal Inference

Problems in causal inference can be fruitfully addressed using signal processing techniques. As an example, it is crucial to successfully quantify the causal effects of an intervention to determine whether the intervention achieved desired outcomes. We present a new geometric signal processing approach to classical synthetic control called ellipsoidal optimal recovery (EOpR), for estimating the unobservable outcome of a treatment unit. EOpR provides policy evaluators with both worst-case and typical outcomes to help in decision making. It is an approximation-theoretic technique that relates to the theory of principal components, which recovers unknown observations given a learned signal class and a set of known observations. We show EOpR can improve pre-treatment fit and mitigate bias of the post-treatment estimate relative to other methods in causal inference. Beyond recovery of the unit of interest, an advantage of EOpR is that it produces worst-case limits over the estimates produced. We assess our approach on artificially-generated data, on datasets commonly used in the econometrics literature, and in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, showing better performance than baseline techniques

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Learning Optimal Features via Partial Invariance

Learning models that are robust to distribution shifts is a key concern in the context of their real-life applicability. Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) is a popular framework that aims to learn robust models from multiple environments. The success of IRM requires an important assumption: the underlying causal mechanisms/features remain invariant across environments. When not satisfied, we show that IRM can over-constrain the predictor and to remedy this, we propose a relaxation via $\textit{partial invariance}$. In this work, we theoretically highlight the sub-optimality of IRM and then demonstrate how learning from a partition of training domains can help improve invariant models. Several experiments, conducted both in linear settings as well as with deep neural networks on tasks over both language and image data, allow us to verify our conclusions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Balancing Fairness and Robustness via Partial Invariance

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework aims to learn invariant features from a set of environments for solving the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization problem. The underlying assumption is that the causal components of the data generating distributions remain constant across the environments or alternately, the data "overlaps" across environments to find meaningful invariant features. Consequently, when the "overlap" assumption does not hold, the set of truly invariant features may not be sufficient for optimal prediction performance. Such cases arise naturally in networked settings and hierarchical data-generating models, wherein the IRM performance becomes suboptimal. To mitigate this failure case, we argue for a partial invariance framework. The key idea is to introduce flexibility into the IRM framework by partitioning the environments based on hierarchical differences, while enforcing invariance locally within the partitions. We motivate this framework in classification settings with causal distribution shifts across environments. Our results show the capability of the partial invariant risk minimization to alleviate the trade-off between fairness and risk in certain settings.

cs.LG↗