Ida Græsted Jensen | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Planning for climate neutrality in the Nordic power sector: Insights from a non-harmonised comparison of eight energy system models

The Nordic countries have adopted ambitious climate targets that require far-reaching power-sector transformations, making energy system modelling an important input to long-term planning. However, model-based evidence is produced using different model structures, assumptions, scopes, and scenario designs. This paper examines what can be learned from comparing such independently developed scenarios by assessing Nordic power-sector climate-neutrality pathways across eight structurally diverse energy system models. The comparison covers Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden for 2030, 2040, and 2050, and focuses on electricity demand, generation capacity, CCS deployment, and power-sector CO2 emissions. Inputs are not harmonised; instead, outputs are compared using a common reporting basis reflecting how modelling evidence is encountered in applied policy contexts. The results show broad agreement on the direction of transition. Wind power, mainly onshore but complemented by offshore wind in some countries, is the clearest cross-model finding and forms the backbone of the Nordic power system by 2050. At the same time, installed capacities, CCS deployment, nuclear outcomes, and emissions levels vary substantially. These differences are interpreted considering renewable-resource potentials, technology availability, policy constraints, sectoral and geographical scope, emissions-accounting boundaries, and different implementations of climate-neutrality targets. The study shows that non-harmonised model comparisons can support policy analysis by identifying where models point in the same direction, such as wind expansion, and where outcomes depend more strongly on model and scenario assumptions, such as CCS, nuclear, and net-negative emissions. For policy use, the findings underline the need to report model scope, technology representation, policy constraints, and emissions-accounting boundaries..

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

From passive to active: Flexibility from electric vehicles in the context of transmission system development

Electrification of transport in RES-based power system will support the decarbonisation of the transportsector. However, due to the increase in energy demand and the large peak effects of charging, the passiveintegration of electric cars is likely to undermine sustainability efforts. This study investigates three differentcharging strategies for electric vehicle in Europe offering various degrees of flexibility: passive charging,smart charging and vehicle-to-grid, and puts this flexibility in perspective with the flexibility offered byinterconnections. We use the Balmorel optimization tool to represent the short-term dispatch and long-terminvestment in the energy system and we contribute to the state-of-the-art in developing new methodologiesto represent home charging and battery degradation. Our results show how each step of increased chargingflexibility reduces system costs, affects energy mix, impacts spot prices and reduces CO2 emissions untilthe horizon 2050. We quantify how flexible charging and variable generation mutually support each other(Â¿100TWh from wind and solar energy in 2050) and restrict the business case for stationary batteries, whereaspassive charging results in a substitution of wind by solar energy. The comparison of each charging schemewith and without interconnection expansion highlights the interplay between European countries in terms ofelectricity prices and CO2 emissions in the context of electrified transport. Although the best outcome isreached under the most flexible scenario at the EU level, the situation of the countries with the cheapest andmost decarbonised electricity mix is damaged, which calls for adapted coordination policy at the EU level.

econ.GN↗