Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Ignacio Ferrín

Publications and source records attributed to Ignacio Ferrín.

4 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2014

The Location of Oort Cloud Comets C/2011 L4 Panstarrs and C/2012 S1 ISON, on a Comets' Evolutionary Diagram

We plot the Secular Light Curves (SLCs) of comets C/2011 L4 Panstarrs and C/2012 S1 ISON. The brightness of C/2011 L4 Panstarrs and C/2012 S1 ISON increase steeply after discovery but both decrease in slope sharply at ~4-5 AU, a characteristic of Oort Cloud cometary light curves that we refer to as a Slope Discontinuity Event (SDE). After the SDE, the SLC of C/2011 L4 continues to increase and has a surge near perihelion. The SLC of comet C/2012 S1 ISON on the other hand, is very odd and exhibits a SDE plus a near-standstill after the event. We found five comets with similar behavior: C/1996 Q1 Tabur, C/1999 S4 LINEAR, C/2002 O4 Hönig, C/2010 X1 Elenin and C/2012 T5 Bressi, all of which disintegrated. Thus we predict that comet ISON will disintegrate too. We compiled published production rates of water, dust and CO and used them to calculate the Mass Loss Budget. We use this information for ISON to calculate the diameter and to plot 29 comets in an Evolutionary Diagram that separates comets by class. We find a diameter D = 1030+-70 m in excellent agreement with the upper limit found by Delamere et al. (2013), D(mean) < 1126 m. It is evident that the Secular Light Curves, exhibit complexity beyond current scientific understanding. Note: The comet disintegrated as predicted (CBET 3731), while this paper was being refereed.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2014

Three Predictions: Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, Comet C/2012 K1 Panstarrs, and Comet C/2013 V5 Oukaimeden

We make the following predictions: (1) Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The Secular Light Curve (SLC) of this comet exhibits a photometric anomaly in magnitude that is present in 1982, 1996, 2002 and 2009. Thus it must be real. We interpret this anomaly as a topographic feature on the surface of the nucleus that may be a field of debris, a region made only of dust or an area of solid stones but in any case it is depleted in volatiles. We predict that images taken by spacecraft Rosseta will show a region morphologically different to the rest of the nucleus, at the pole pointing to the Sun near perihelion. (2) Comet C/2012 K1 Panstarrs. This comet exhibits the same Slope Discontinuity Event (SDE)+magnitude dip after the event than 11 other comets listed in Table 1 all of which disintegrated. This group includes comet C/2012 S1 ISON. Thus it is reasonable to expect that this comet may disintegrate too. The probability of disintegration of this comet is 20%. (3) Comet C/2013 V5 Oukaimeden. This comet exhibits the same SDE+dip signature exhibited by 11 other comets in Table 1 all of which disintegrated. This group includes comet C/2012 S1 ISON. We predict that there is a 90% probability that this comet will disintegrate.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2011

Modeling the Envelope of the Secular Light Curve of the Comete 1P/Halley

We have been modeling the envelope of the secular light curve (Ferrín, 2010) of comet 1P/Halley. As the first step we have modeled the water production rate of the comet, for several active regions as a function of visual albedo and infrared albedo, and then we have used the correlation between the water production rate and the reduced magnitude (Jorda, 2008) for modeling the envelope of the secular light curve of the comet. We obtain probable orientations of the rotation axis (I,$Φ$). These orientations are compared with several solutions by several authors. We have calculated the surface temperature for the orientation of the rotation axis with minimal standar deviation. We have found that for near and far values of the perihelion the surface temperature as a function of the latitude is constant.

astro-ph.EP↗