arXiv subjects

Igor Cialenco

Publications and source records attributed to Igor Cialenco.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Fair Estimation of Capital Risk Allocation

In this paper we develop a novel methodology for estimation of risk capital allocation. The methodology is rooted in the theory of risk measures. We work within a general, but tractable class of law-invariant coherent risk measures, with a particular focus on expected shortfall. We introduce the concept of fair capital allocations and provide explicit formulae for fair capital allocations in case when the constituents of the risky portfolio are jointly normally distributed. The main focus of the paper is on the problem of approximating fair portfolio allocations in the case of not fully known law of the portfolio constituents. We define and study the concepts of fair allocation estimators and asymptotically fair allocation estimators. A substantial part of our study is devoted to the problem of estimating fair risk allocations for expected shortfall. We study this problem under normality as well as in a nonparametric setup. We derive several estimators, and prove their fairness and/or asymptotic fairness. Last, but not least, we propose two backtesting methodologies that are oriented at assessing the performance of the allocation estimation procedure. The paper closes with a substantial numerical study of the subject.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2019

A note on parameter estimation for discretely sampled SPDEs

We consider a parameter estimation problem for one dimensional stochastic heat equations, when data is sampled discretely in time or spatial component. We prove that, the real valued parameter next to the Laplacian (the drift), and the constant parameter in front of the noise (the volatility) can be consistently estimated under somewhat surprisingly minimal information. Namely, it is enough to observe the solution at a fixed time and on a discrete spatial grid, or at a fixed space point and at discrete time instances of a finite interval, assuming that the mesh-size goes to zero. The proposed estimators have the same form and asymptotic properties regardless of the nature of the domain - bounded domain or whole space. The derivation of the estimators and the proofs of their asymptotic properties are based on computations of power variations of some relevant stochastic processes. We use elements of Malliavin calculus to establish the asymptotic normality properties in the case of bounded domain. We also discuss the joint estimation problem of the drift and volatility coefficient. We conclude with some numerical experiments that illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Drift Estimation for Discretely Sampled SPDEs

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the drift coefficient for fractional stochastic heat equation driven by an additive space-time noise. We consider the traditional for stochastic partial differential equations statistical experiment when the measurements are performed in the spectral domain, and in contrast to the existing literature, we study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood (type) estimators (MLE) when both, the number of Fourier modes and the time go to infinity. In the first part of the paper we consider the usual setup of continuous time observations of the Fourier coefficients of the solutions, and show that the MLE is consistent, asymptotically normal and optimal in the mean-square sense. In the second part of the paper we investigate the natural time discretization of the MLE, by assuming that the first N Fourier modes are measured at M time grid points, uniformly spaced over the time interval [0,T]. We provide a rigorous asymptotic analysis of the proposed estimators when N goes to infinity and/or T, M go to infinity. We establish sufficient conditions on the growth rates of N, M and T, that guarantee consistency and asymptotic normality of these estimators.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Statistical Analysis of Some Evolution Equations Driven by Space-only Noise

We study the statistical properties of stochastic evolution equations driven by space-only noise, either additive or multiplicative. While forward problems, such as existence, uniqueness, and regularity of the solution, for such equations have been studied, little is known about inverse problems for these equations. We exploit the somewhat unusual structure of the observations coming from these equations that leads to an interesting interplay between classical and non-traditional statistical models. We derive several types of estimators for the drift and/or diffusion coefficients of these equations, and prove their relevant properties.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Bayesian Estimations for Diagonalizable Bilinear SPDEs

The main goal of this paper is to study the parameter estimation problem, using the Bayesian methodology, for the drift coefficient of some linear (parabolic) SPDEs driven by a multiplicative noise of special structure. We take the spectral approach by assuming that one path of the first $N$ Fourier modes of the solution is continuously observed over a finite time interval. First, we show that the model is regular and fits into classical local asymptotic normality framework, and thus the MLE and the Bayesian estimators are weakly consistent, asymptotically normal, efficient, and asymptotically equivalent in the class of loss functions with polynomial growth. Secondly, and mainly, we prove a Bernstein-Von Mises type result, that strengthens the existing results in the literature, and that also allows to investigate the Bayesian type estimators with respect to a larger class of priors and loss functions than that covered by classical asymptotic theory. In particular, we prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of Bayesian estimators in the class of loss functions of at most exponential growth. Finally, we present some numerical examples that illustrate the obtained theoretical results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2019

Wiener-Hopf Factorization for Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Chains

This work contributes to the theory of Wiener-Hopf type factorization for finite Markov chains. This theory originated in the seminal paper Barlow et al. (1980), which treated the case of finite time-homogeneous Markov chains. Since then, several works extended the results of Barlow et al. (1980) in many directions. However, all these extensions were dealing with time-homogeneous Markov case. The first work dealing with the time-inhomogeneous situation was Bielecki et al. (2018), where Wiener-Hopf type factorization for time-inhomogeneous finite Markov chain with piecewise constant generator matrix function was derived. In the present paper we go further: we derive and study Wiener-Hopf type factorization for time-inhomogeneous finite Markov chain with the generator matrix function being a fairly general matrix valued function of time.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Arbitrage-Free Pricing Of Derivatives In Nonlinear Market Models

The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive study no-arbitrage pricing of financial derivatives in the presence of funding costs, the counterparty credit risk and market frictions affecting the trading mechanism, such as collateralization and capital requirements. To achieve our goals, we extend in several respects the nonlinear pricing approach developed in El Karoui and Quenez (1997) and El Karoui et al. (1997), which was subsequently continued in Bielecki and Rutkowski (2015).

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2018

A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk

We introduce a dynamic model of the default waterfall of derivatives CCPs and propose a risk sensitive method for sizing the initial margin (IM), and the default fund (DF) and its allocation among clearing members. Using a Markovian structure model of joint credit migrations, our evaluation of DF takes into account the joint credit quality of clearing members as they evolve over time. Another important aspect of the proposed methodology is the use of the time consistent dynamic risk measures for computation of IM and DF. We carry out a comprehensive numerical study, where, in particular, we analyze the advantages of the proposed methodology and its comparison with the currently prevailing methods used in industry.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2018

Wiener-Hopf factorization for time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and its application

In this paper we derive the Wiener-Hopf factorization for a finite-state time-inhomogeneous Markov chain. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to investigate the Wiener-Hopf factorization for time-inhomogeneous Markov chains. In this work we only deal with a special class of time-inhomogeneous Markovian generators, namely piece-wise constant, which allows to use an appropriately tailored randomization technique. Besides the mathematical importance of the Wiener-Hopf factorization methodology, there is also an important computational aspect: it allows for efficient computation of important functionals of Markov chains.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Statistical Inference for SPDEs: an overview

The aim of this work is to give an overview of the recent developments in the area of statistical inference for parabolic stochastic partial differential equations. Significant part of the paper is devoted to the spectral approach, which is the most studied sampling scheme under which the observations are done in the Fourier space over some finite time interval. We also discuss into details the practically important case of discrete sampling of the solution. Other relevant methodologies and some open problems are briefly discussed over the course of the manuscript.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

A unified approach to time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time

In this paper we provide a flexible framework allowing for a unified study of time consistency of risk measures and performance measures (also known as acceptability indices). The proposed framework not only integrates existing forms of time consistency, but also provides a comprehensive toolbox for analysis and synthesis of the concept of time consistency in decision making. In particular, it allows for in depth comparative analysis of (most of) the existing types of time consistency -- a feat that has not be possible before and which is done in the companion paper [BCP2016] to this one. In our approach the time consistency is studied for a large class of maps that are postulated to satisfy only two properties -- monotonicity and locality. The time consistency is defined in terms of an update rule. The form of the update rule introduced here is novel, and is perfectly suited for developing the unifying framework that is worked out in this paper. As an illustration of the applicability of our approach, we show how to recover almost all concepts of weak time consistency by means of constructing appropriate update rules.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Recursive Construction of Confidence Regions

Assuming that one-step transition kernel of a discrete time, time-homogenous Markov chain model is parameterized by a parameter $θ\in \boldsymbol Θ$, we derive a recursive (in time) construction of confidence regions for the unknown parameter of interest, say $θ^*\in \boldsymbol Θ$. It is supposed that the observed data used in construction of the confidence regions is generated by a Markov chain whose transition kernel corresponds to $θ^*$ . The key step in our construction is derivation of a recursive scheme for an appropriate point estimator of $θ^*$. To achieve this, we start by what we call the base recursive point estimator, using which we design a quasi-asymptotically linear recursive point estimator (a concept introduced in this paper). For the latter estimator we prove its weak consistency and asymptotic normality. The recursive construction of confidence regions is needed not only for the purpose of speeding up the computation of the successive confidence regions, but, primarily, for the ability to apply the dynamic programming principle in the context of robust adaptive stochastic control methodology.

math.ST↗

arXiv2017

Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty

In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving an uncertain stochastic Markovian control problem in discrete time. We call the proposed methodology the adaptive robust control. We demonstrate that the uncertain control problem under consideration can be solved in terms of associated adaptive robust Bellman equation. The success of our approach is to the great extend owed to the recursive methodology for construction of relevant confidence regions. We illustrate our methodology by considering an optimal portfolio allocation problem, and we compare results obtained using the adaptive robust control method with some other existing methods.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

A survey of time consistency of dynamic risk measures and dynamic performance measures in discrete time: LM-measure perspective

In this work we give a comprehensive overview of the time consistency property of dynamic risk and performance measures, focusing on a the discrete time setup. The two key operational concepts used throughout are the notion of the LM-measure and the notion of the update rule that, we believe, are the key tools for studying time consistency in a unified framework.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Trajectory Fitting Estimators for SPDEs Driven by Additive Noise

In this paper we study the problem of estimating the drift/viscosity coefficient for a large class of linear, parabolic stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) driven by an additive space-time noise. We propose a new class of estimators, called trajectory fitting estimators (TFEs). The estimators are constructed by fitting the observed trajectory with an artificial one, and can be viewed as an analog to the classical least squares estimators from the time-series analysis. As in the existing literature on statistical inference for SPDEs, we take a spectral approach, and assume that we observe the first $N$ Fourier modes of the solution, and we study the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the TFE, as $N\to\infty$.

math.ST↗

arXiv2014

Dynamic Conic Finance via Backward Stochastic Difference Equations

We present an arbitrage free theoretical framework for modeling bid and ask prices of dividend paying securities in a discrete time setup using theory of dynamic acceptability indices. In the first part of the paper we develop the theory of dynamic subscale invariant performance measures, on a general probability space, and discrete time setup. We prove a representation theorem of such measures in terms of a family of dynamic convex risk measures, and provide a representation of dynamic risk measures in terms of g-expectations, and solutions of BS$Δ$Es with convex drivers. We study the existence and uniqueness of the solutions, and derive a comparison theorem for corresponding BS$Δ$Es. In the second part of the paper we discuss a market model for dividend paying securities by introducing the pricing operators that are defined in terms of dynamic acceptability indices, and find various properties of these operators. Using these pricing operators, we define the bid and ask prices for the underlying securities and then for derivatives in this market. We show that the obtained market model is arbitrage free, and we also prove a series of properties of these prices.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2014

Dynamic Assessment Indices

This paper provides a unified framework, which allows, in particular, to study the structure of dynamic monetary risk measures and dynamic acceptability indices. The main mathematical tool, which we use here, and which allows us to significantly generalize existing results is the theory of $L^0$-modules. In the first part of the paper we develop the general theory and provide a robust representation of conditional assessment indices, and in the second part we apply this theory to dynamic acceptability indices acting on stochastic processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2014

Dynamic Limit Growth Indices in Discrete Time

We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dynamic Limit Growth Index to be a dynamic assessment index. We also establish their connection with classical dynamic acceptability indices, and we show how to construct examples of Dynamic Limit Growth Indices using dynamic risk measures and dynamic certainty equivalents. Finally, we propose a new definition of time consistency, suitable for these indices, and we study time consistency for the most notable representative of this class -- the dynamic analog of risk sensitive criterion.

q-fin.RM↗