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Igor Mandel

Publications and source records attributed to Igor Mandel.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Does Regression Approximate the Influence of the Covariates or Just Measurement Errors? A Model Validity Test

A criterion is proposed for testing hypothesis about the nature of the error variance in the dependent variable in linear model, which separates correctly and incorrectly specified models. In the former only measurement errors determine the variance (i.e., dependent variable is correctly explained by independent ones, up to measurement errors), while in the latter the model lacks some independent covariates (or has nonlinear structure). The proposed MEM-V (Measurement Error Model Validity) test checks the validity of the model when both dependent and independent covariates are measured with errors. The criterion has asymptotic character, but numerical simulations outlined approximate boundaries where estimates make sense. A practical example of the implementation of the test is discussed in detail; it shows ability of the test to detect wrong specification even in seemingly perfect models. This type of relation between measurement errors and model specification has not been studied before, and the proposed criterion may stimulate future research in this important area.

stat.ME

Introduction to statistical physics of media processes: Mediaphysics

Processes of mass communications in complicated social or sociobiological systems such as marketing, economics, politics, animal populations, etc. as a subject for the special scientific discipline - "mediaphysics" - are considered in its relation with sociophysics. A new statistical physics approach to analyze these phenomena is proposed. A keystone of the approach is an analysis of population distribution between two or many alternatives: brands, political affiliations, or opinions. Relative distances between a state of a "person's mind" and the alternatives are measures of propensity to buy (to affiliate, or to have a certain opinion). The distribution of population by those relative distances is time dependent and affected by external (economic, social, marketing, natural) and internal (mean-field influential propagation of opinions, synergy effects, etc.) factors, considered as fields. Specifically, the interaction and opinion-influence field can be generalized to incorporate important elements of Ising-spin based sociophysical models and kinetic-equation ones. The distributions were described by a Schrodinger-type equation in terms of Green's functions. The developed approach has been applied to a real mass-media efficiency problem for a large company and generally demonstrated very good results despite low initial correlations of factors and the target variable.

physics.soc-ph