Data-Efficient Quantum Noise Modeling via Machine Learning
Maximizing the computational utility of near-term quantum processors requires predictive noise models that inform robust, noise-aware compilation and error mitigation. Conventional models often fail to capture the complex error dynamics of real hardware or require prohibitive characterization overhead. We introduce a data-efficient framework that first constructs a physically motivated, parameterized noise model, and subsequently employs machine learning-driven Bayesian optimization to identify its parameters. Our approach circumvents costly characterization protocols by estimating algorithm- and hardware-specific error parameters directly from readily available experimental data derived from existing application and benchmark circuit executions. The generality and robustness of the framework are demonstrated across diverse algorithms and superconducting devices, yielding high-fidelity predictions by estimating an independent parameter set tailored to each specific algorithm-hardware context. Crucially, we show that a model calibrated exclusively on small-scale circuits accurately predicts the behavior of larger validation circuits. Our data-efficient approach achieves up to a 65% improvement in model fidelity quantified by the Hellinger distance between predicted and experimental circuit output distributions, compared to standard noise models derived from device properties. This work establishes a practical paradigm for application-aware noise characterization, enabling compilation and error-mitigation strategies tailored to the specific interplay between quantum algorithms and device-specific noise dynamics.