arXiv subjects

Ilya Archakov

Publications and source records attributed to Ilya Archakov.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Generalized Fisher Transformation: Finite-Sample Properties and Inference

We study the finite-sample behavior of the Generalized Fisher Transformation (GFT), the parametrization of a correlation matrix $C$ by $\gamma(C)=\operatorname{vecl}\log C$. The GFT coordinates extend Fisher's transformation to dimension $n>2$: for elliptical data their finite-sample distributions are close to Gaussian. More strikingly, the coordinates are nearly uncorrelated and their covariance is largely invariant to $C$. This approximate orthogonality and invariance make GFT-based inference far better behaved in finite samples than inference based on sample correlations or element-wise Fisher transformed correlations, yielding estimation errors that are approximately Gaussian, weakly dependent, and nearly pivotal.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

A Robust Similarity Estimator

We analyze a measure of statistical association based on the similarity of the outcomes of random variables, in both sign and magnitude. Motivated by its attractive properties, we propose a class of estimators for the linear correlation coefficient, a sample-average and a maximum-likelihood version, that operate directly on the Fisher scale and possess a robust sampling distribution that is invariant over the entire class of elliptical distributions. Under scale homogeneity, the finite-sample distribution of the estimator is available in exact form, facilitating robust inference for correlations even in small samples. The similarity measure extends naturally to higher dimensions, where it admits an interpretation as an indicator of joint similarity among multiple random variables. As empirical applications, we construct robust confidence intervals for financial correlations using intraday returns and develop a new specification of a multivariate GARCH model with robust correlation dynamics.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Cluster GARCH

We introduce a novel multivariate GARCH model with flexible convolution-t distributions that is applicable in high-dimensional systems. The model is called Cluster GARCH because it can accommodate cluster structures in the conditional correlation matrix and in the tail dependencies. The expressions for the log-likelihood function and its derivatives are tractable, and the latter facilitate a score-drive model for the dynamic correlation structure. We apply the Cluster GARCH model to daily returns for 100 assets and find it outperforms existing models, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, the convolution-t distribution provides a better empirical performance than the conventional multivariate t-distribution.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2022

A New Method for Generating Random Correlation Matrices

We propose a new method for generating random correlation matrices that makes it simple to control both location and dispersion. The method is based on a vector parameterization, gamma = g(C), which maps any distribution on R^d, d = n(n-1)/2 to a distribution on the space of non-singular nxn correlation matrices. Correlation matrices with certain properties, such as being well-conditioned, having block structures, and having strictly positive elements, are simple to generate. We compare the new method with existing methods.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

A Canonical Representation of Block Matrices with Applications to Covariance and Correlation Matrices

We obtain a canonical representation for block matrices. The representation facilitates simple computation of the determinant, the matrix inverse, and other powers of a block matrix, as well as the matrix logarithm and the matrix exponential. These results are particularly useful for block covariance and block correlation matrices, where evaluation of the Gaussian log-likelihood and estimation are greatly simplified. We illustrate this with an empirical application using a large panel of daily asset returns. Moreover, the representation paves new ways to regularizing large covariance/correlation matrices, test block structures in matrices, and estimate regressions with many variables.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

A New Parametrization of Correlation Matrices

We introduce a novel parametrization of the correlation matrix. The reparametrization facilitates modeling of correlation and covariance matrices by an unrestricted vector, where positive definiteness is an innate property. This parametrization can be viewed as a generalization of Fisther's Z-transformation to higher dimensions and has a wide range of potential applications. An algorithm for reconstructing the unique n x n correlation matrix from any d-dimensional vector (with d = n(n-1)/2) is provided, and we derive its numerical complexity.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2020

A Multivariate Realized GARCH Model

We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the use of factor models for correlations. This approach elegantly addresses the main challenge faced by multivariate GARCH models in high-dimensional settings. As an illustration, we explore block correlation matrices that naturally simplify to linear factor models for the conditional correlations. The model is applied to the returns of nine assets, and its in-sample and out-of-sample performance compares favorably against several popular benchmarks.

econ.EM↗