arXiv subjects

Ilya Mandel

Publications and source records attributed to Ilya Mandel.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Formation of the first three gravitational-wave observations through isolated binary evolution

During its first 4 months of taking data, Advanced LIGO has detected gravitational waves from two binary black hole mergers, GW150914 and GW151226, along with the statistically less significant binary black hole merger candidate LVT151012. We use our rapid binary population synthesis code COMPAS to show that all three events can be explained by a single evolutionary channel -- classical isolated binary evolution via mass transfer including a common envelope phase. We show all three events could have formed in low-metallicity environments (Z = 0.001) from progenitor binaries with typical total masses $\gtrsim 160 M_\odot$, $\gtrsim 60 M_\odot$ and $\gtrsim 90 M_\odot$, for GW150914, GW151226, and LVT151012, respectively.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2017

Stellar binaries in galactic nuclei: tidally stimulated mergers followed by tidal disruptions

We investigate interactions of stellar binaries in galactic nuclear clusters with a massive black hole (MBH). We consider binaries on highly eccentric orbits around the MBH that change due to random gravitational interactions with other stars in the nuclear stellar cluster. The pericenters of the orbits perform a random walk, and we consider cases where this random walk slowly brings the binary to the Hills tidal separation radius (the so-called empty loss-cone regime). However, we find that in a majority of cases the expected separation does not occur and instead the members of the binary merge together. This happens because the binary's eccentricity is excited by tidal interactions with the MBH, and the relative excursions of the internal eccentricity of the binary far exceed those in its internal semimajor axis. This frequently reduces the pericenter separation to values below typical stellar diameters, which induces a significant fraction of such binaries to merge ($\gtrsim 75\%$ in our set of numerical experiments). Stellar tides do not appreciably change the total rate of mergers but circularise binaries, leading to a significant fraction of low-eccentricity, low-impact-velocity mergers. Some of the stellar merger products will then be tidally disrupted by the MBH within $\sim 10^6$ years. If the merger strongly enhances the magnetic field of the merger product, this process could explain observations of prompt relativistic jet formation in some tidal disruption events.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Model-independent inference on compact-binary observations

The recent advanced LIGO detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes enhance the prospect of exploring binary evolution via gravitational-wave observations of a population of compact-object binaries. In the face of uncertainty about binary formation models, model-independent inference provides an appealing alternative to comparisons between observed and modelled populations. We describe a procedure for clustering in the multi-dimensional parameter space of observations that are subject to significant measurement errors. We apply this procedure to a mock data set of population-synthesis predictions for the masses of merging compact binaries convolved with realistic measurement uncertainties, and demonstrate that we can accurately distinguish subpopulations of binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and mixed neutron star -- black hole binaries with tens of observations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Limits of Astrophysics with Gravitational-Wave Backgrounds

The recent Advanced LIGO detection of gravitational waves from the binary black hole GW150914 suggests there exists a large population of merging binary black holes in the Universe. Although most are too distant to be individually resolved by advanced detectors, the superposition of gravitational waves from many unresolvable binaries is expected to create an astrophysical stochastic background. Recent results from the LIGO and Virgo collaborations show that this astrophysical background is within reach of Advanced LIGO. In principle, the binary black hole background encodes interesting astrophysical properties, such as the mass distribution and redshift distribution of distant binaries. However, we show that this information will be difficult to extract with the current configuration of advanced detectors (and using current data analysis tools). Additionally, the binary black hole background also constitutes a foreground that limits the ability of advanced detectors to observe other interesting stochastic background signals, for example from cosmic strings or phase transitions in the early Universe. We quantify this effect.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2016

$N-$body dynamics of Intermediate mass-ratio inspirals in globular clusters

The intermediate mass-ratio inspiral of a stellar compact remnant into an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH) can produce a gravitational wave (GW) signal that is potentially detectable by current ground-based GW detectors (e.g., Advanced LIGO) as well as by planned space-based interferometers (e.g., eLISA). Here, we present results from a direct integration of the post-Newtonian $N$-body equations of motion describing stellar clusters containing an IMBH and a population of stellar-mass black holes (BHs) and solar mass stars. We take particular care to simulate the dynamics closest to the IMBH, including post-Newtonian effects up to order $2.5$. Our simulations show that the IMBH readily forms a binary with a BH companion. This binary is gradually hardened by transient 3-body or 4-body encounters, leading to frequent substitutions of the BH companion, while the binary's eccentricity experiences large amplitude oscillations due to the Lidov-Kozai resonance. We also demonstrate suppression of these resonances by the relativistic precession of the binary orbit. We find an intermediate mass-ratio inspiral in one of the 12 cluster models we evolved for $\sim 100$ Myr. This cluster hosts a $100 M_\odot$ IMBH embedded in a population of 32 $10M_\odot$ BH and 32,000 $1M_\odot$ stars. At the end of the simulation, after $\sim 100$ Myr of evolution, the IMBH merges with a BH companion. The IMBH--BH binary inspiral starts in the eLISA frequency window ($\gtrsim 1\rm mHz$) when the binary reaches an eccentricity $1-e\simeq 10^{-3}$. After $\simeq 10^5$ years the binary moves into the LIGO frequency band with a negligible eccentricity. We comment on the implications for GW searches, with a possible detection within the next decade.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Merging binary black holes formed through chemically homogeneous evolution in short-period stellar binaries

We explore a newly proposed channel to create binary black holes of stellar origin. This scenario applies to massive, tight binaries where mixing induced by rotation and tides transports the products of hydrogen burning throughout the stellar envelopes. This slowly enriches the entire star with helium, preventing the build-up of an internal chemical gradient. The stars remain compact as they evolve nearly chemically homogeneously, eventually forming two black holes, which, we estimate, typically merge 4--11 Gyr after formation. Like other proposed channels, this evolutionary pathway suffers from significant theoretical uncertainties, but could be constrained in the near future by data from advanced ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We perform Monte Carlo simulations of the expected merger rate over cosmic time to explore the implications and uncertainties. Our default model for this channel yields a local binary black hole merger rate of about $10$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ at redshift $z=0$, peaking at twice this rate at $z=0.5$. This means that this channel is competitive, in terms of expected rates, with the conventional formation scenarios that involve a common-envelope phase during isolated binary evolution or dynamical interaction in a dense cluster. The events from this channel may be distinguished by the preference for nearly equal-mass components and high masses, with typical total masses between 50 and 110 $\textrm{M}_\odot$. Unlike the conventional isolated binary evolution scenario that involves shrinkage of the orbit during a common-envelope phase, short time delays are unlikely for this channel, implying that we do not expect mergers at high redshift.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

Dynamic temperature selection for parallel-tempering in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations

Modern problems in astronomical Bayesian inference require efficient methods for sampling from complex, high-dimensional, often multi-modal probability distributions. Most popular methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, perform poorly on strongly multi-modal probability distributions, rarely jumping between modes or settling on just one mode without finding others. Parallel tempering addresses this problem by sampling simultaneously with separate Markov chains from tempered versions of the target distribution with reduced contrast levels. Gaps between modes can be traversed at higher temperatures, while individual modes can be efficiently explored at lower temperatures. In this paper, we investigate how one might choose the ladder of temperatures to achieve more efficient sampling, as measured by the autocorrelation time of the sampler. In particular, we present a simple, easily-implemented algorithm for dynamically adapting the temperature configuration of a sampler while sampling. This algorithm dynamically adjusts the temperature spacing to achieve a uniform rate of exchanges between chains at neighbouring temperatures. We compare the algorithm to conventional geometric temperature configurations on a number of test distributions and on an astrophysical inference problem, reporting efficiency gains by a factor of 1.2-2.5 over a well-chosen geometric temperature configuration and by a factor of 1.5-5 over a poorly chosen configuration. On all of these problems a sampler using the dynamical adaptations to achieve uniform acceptance ratios between neighbouring chains outperforms one that does not.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Kernel regression estimates of time delays between gravitationally lensed fluxes

Strongly lensed variable quasars can serve as precise cosmological probes, provided that time delays between the image fluxes can be accurately measured. A number of methods have been proposed to address this problem. In this paper, we explore in detail a new approach based on kernel regression estimates, which is able to estimate a single time delay given several datasets for the same quasar. We develop realistic artificial data sets in order to carry out controlled experiments to test of performance of this new approach. We also test our method on real data from strongly lensed quasar Q0957+561 and compare our estimates against existing results.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Detectability of Gravitational Waves from High-Redshift Binaries

Recent non-detection of gravitational-wave backgrounds from pulsar timing arrays casts further uncertainty on the evolution of supermassive black hole binaries. We study the capabilities of current gravitational-wave observatories to detect individual binaries and demonstrate that, contrary to conventional wisdom, some are in principle detectable throughout the Universe. In particular, a binary with rest-frame mass $\gtrsim10^{10}\,M_\odot$ can be detected by current timing arrays at arbitrarily high redshifts. The same claim will apply for less massive binaries with more sensitive future arrays. As a consequence, future searches for nanohertz gravitational waves could be expanded to target evolving high-redshift binaries. We calculate the maximum distance at which binaries can be observed with pulsar timing arrays and other detectors, properly accounting for redshift and using realistic binary waveforms.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Parameter estimation on gravitational waves from neutron-star binaries with spinning components

Inspiraling binary neutron stars are expected to be one of the most significant sources of gravitational-wave signals for the new generation of advanced ground-based detectors. We investigate how well we could hope to measure properties of these binaries using the Advanced LIGO detectors, which began operation in September 2015. We study an astrophysically motivated population of sources (binary components with masses $1.2~\mathrm{M}_\odot$--$1.6~\mathrm{M}_\odot$ and spins of less than $0.05$) using the full LIGO analysis pipeline. While this simulated population covers the observed range of potential binary neutron-star sources, we do not exclude the possibility of sources with parameters outside these ranges; given the existing uncertainty in distributions of mass and spin, it is critical that analyses account for the full range of possible mass and spin configurations. We find that conservative prior assumptions on neutron-star mass and spin lead to average fractional uncertainties in component masses of $\sim 16\%$, with little constraint on spins (the median $90\%$ upper limit on the spin of the more massive component is $\sim 0.7$). Stronger prior constraints on neutron-star spins can further constrain mass estimates, but only marginally. However, we find that the sky position and luminosity distance for these sources are not influenced by the inclusion of spin; therefore, if LIGO detects a low-spin population of BNS sources, less computationally expensive results calculated neglecting spin will be sufficient for guiding electromagnetic follow-up.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Measuring intermediate mass black hole binaries with advanced gravitational wave detectors

We perform a systematic study to explore the accuracy with which the parameters of intermediate-mass black-hole binary systems can be measured from their gravitational wave (GW) signatures using second-generation GW detectors. We make use of the most recent reduced-order models containing inspiral, merger and ringdown signals of aligned-spin effective-one-body waveforms (SEOBNR) to significantly speed up the calculations. We explore the phenomenology of the measurement accuracies for binaries with total masses between 50 and 500 $M_\odot$ and mass ratios between 0.1 and 1. We find that (i) at total masses below ~200 $M_\odot$, where the signal-to-noise-ratio is dominated by the inspiral portion of the signal, the chirp mass parameter can be accurately measured; (ii) at higher masses, the information content is dominated by the ringdown, and total mass is measured more accurately; (iii) the mass of the lower-mass companion is poorly estimated, especially at high total mass and more extreme mass ratios; (iv) spin cannot be accurately measured for our injection set with non-spinning components. Most importantly, we find that for binaries with non-spinning components at all values of the mass ratio in the considered range and at network signal-to-noise ratio of 15, analyzed with spin-aligned templates, the presence of an intermediate-mass black hole with mass >100 $M_\odot$ can be confirmed with 95% confidence in any binary that includes a component with a mass of 130 $M_\odot$ or greater.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Inference on gravitational waves from coalescences of stellar-mass compact objects and intermediate-mass black holes

Gravitational waves from coalescences of neutron stars or stellar-mass black holes into intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) of $\gtrsim 100$ solar masses represent one of the exciting possible sources for advanced gravitational-wave detectors. These sources can provide definitive evidence for the existence of IMBHs, probe globular-cluster dynamics, and potentially serve as tests of general relativity. We analyse the accuracy with which we can measure the masses and spins of the IMBH and its companion in intermediate-mass ratio coalescences. We find that we can identify an IMBH with a mass above $100 ~ M_\odot$ with $95\%$ confidence provided the massive body exceeds $130 ~ M_\odot$. For source masses above $\sim200 ~ M_\odot$, the best measured parameter is the frequency of the quasi-normal ringdown. Consequently, the total mass is measured better than the chirp mass for massive binaries, but the total mass is still partly degenerate with spin, which cannot be accurately measured. Low-frequency detector sensitivity is particularly important for massive sources, since sensitivity to the inspiral phase is critical for measuring the mass of the stellar-mass companion. We show that we can accurately infer source parameters for cosmologically redshifted signals by applying appropriate corrections. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the model gravitational waveforms and conclude that our main results are likely robust to systematics.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Estimates of black-hole natal kick velocities from observations of low-mass X-ray binaries

The birth kicks of black holes, arising from asymmetric mass ejection or neutrino emission during core-collapse supernovae, are of great interest for both observationally constraining supernova models and population-synthesis studies of binary evolution. Recently, several efforts were undertaken to estimate black hole birth kicks from observations of black-hole low-mass X-ray binaries. We follow up on this work, specifically focussing on the highest estimated black-hole kick velocities. We find that existing observations do not require black hole birth kicks in excess of approximately 100 km/s, although higher kicks are not ruled out.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

An Efficient Interpolation Technique for Jump Proposals in Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Calculations

Selection among alternative theoretical models given an observed data set is an important challenge in many areas of physics and astronomy. Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is an extremely powerful technique for performing Bayesian model selection, but it suffers from a fundamental difficulty: it requires jumps between model parameter spaces, but cannot efficiently explore both parameter spaces at once. Thus, a naive jump between parameter spaces is unlikely to be accepted in the MCMC algorithm and convergence is correspondingly slow. Here we demonstrate an interpolation technique that uses samples from single-model MCMCs to propose inter-model jumps from an approximation to the single-model posterior of the target parameter space. The interpolation technique, based on a kD-tree data structure, is adaptive and efficient in modest dimensionality. We show that our technique leads to improved convergence over naive jumps in an RJMCMC, and compare it to other proposals in the literature to improve the convergence of RJMCMCs. We also demonstrate the use of the same interpolation technique as a way to construct efficient "global" proposal distributions for single-model MCMCs without prior knowledge of the structure of the posterior distribution, and discuss improvements that permit the method to be used in higher-dimensional spaces efficiently.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

Double tidal disruptions in galactic nuclei

A star on a nearly radial trajectory approaching a massive black hole (MBH) gets tidally disrupted if it comes sufficiently close to the MBH. Here we explore what happens to binary stars whose centers of mass approach the MBH on nearly radial orbits. The interaction with the MBH often leads to both stars being disrupted in sequence. We argue that such events could produce light curves that are substantially different from those of the single disruptions, with possible features such as two local maxima. Tidal forces from the MBH can also lead the binary components to collide; these merger products can form highly magnetized stars, whose subsequent tidal disruption may enable prompt jet formation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Parameter estimation for binary neutron-star coalescences with realistic noise during the Advanced LIGO era

Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation \edit{(PE)} pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky-localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of \edit{non-stationary}, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance \edit{at a given signal-to-noise ratio}. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, the median $90\%$ ($50\%$) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is $0.85$ ($0.38$). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than $10^{-3} M_\odot$. The median $90\%$ ($50\%$) credible region for sky localization is $\sim600~\mathrm{deg^{2}}$ ($\sim150~\mathrm{deg^{2}}$), with $3\%$ ($30\%$) of detected events localized within $100~\mathrm{deg^{2}}$. Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Distinguishing types of compact-object binaries using the gravitational-wave signatures of their mergers

We analyze the distinguishability of populations of coalescing binary neutron stars, neutron-star black-hole binaries, and binary black holes, whose gravitational-wave signatures are expected to be observed by the advanced network of ground-based interferometers LIGO and Virgo. We consider population-synthesis predictions for plausible merging binary distributions in mass space, along with measurement accuracy estimates from the main gravitational-wave parameter-estimation pipeline. We find that for our model compact-object binary mass distribution, we can always distinguish binary neutron stars and black-hole--neutron-star binaries, but not necessarily black-hole--neutron-star binaries and binary black holes; however, with a few tens of detections, we can accurately identify the three subpopulations and measure their respective rates.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Efficient method for measuring the parameters encoded in a gravitational-wave signal

Once upon a time, predictions for the accuracy of inference on gravitational-wave signals relied on computationally inexpensive but often inaccurate techniques. Recently, the approach has shifted to actual inference on noisy signals with complex stochastic Bayesian methods, at the expense of significant computational cost. Here, we argue that it is often possible to have the best of both worlds: a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior information and correctly marginalizes over uninteresting parameters, providing accurate posterior probability distribution functions, but carried out on a simple grid at a low computational cost, comparable to the inexpensive predictive techniques.

astro-ph.IM↗