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Ilya Novikov

Publications and source records attributed to Ilya Novikov.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Large scale cross-regional remote sensing flood monitoring framework for operative mapping and impact analysis

Effective flood monitoring is critical for minimizing the impacts of flood disasters on populations and infrastructure. Yet reliable remote sensing across extensive and environmentally diverse regions remains challenging, as most segmentation algorithms lack the generalisation capacity required for large-scale application, while annotated flood data are scarce and unevenly distributed. This study presents an end-to-end multimodal framework for Russian Federation territories sustainable flood monitoring and damage assessment based on synthetic aperture radar data, multispectral imagery, and digital elevation models with their derivatives, forming a 21-channel input. Using a self-collected multimodal dataset covering seven Russian regions, two strategies for water surface detection under limited data conditions were compared: a supervised U-Net++ model and the self-supervised AnySat architecture pre-trained and fine-tuned for the segmentation task. Under the data conditions of this study, supervised learning proved more effective, while the AnySat-based approach offered greater stability and retains advantages for settings where larger unlabelled data or missing modalities at inference are expected. The best flood area predictions were used to estimate flood impact in urban areas in terms of the area affected, material damage, casualties, and ecological and agricultural impact. The estimations were conducted following the official methodology of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. Applied to the 2019 Tulun flood, the obtained results closely matched official assessments, except for material damage, due to the open-source databases usage. The results demonstrate the potential of deep learning and multimodal satellite data integration for scalable, reliable flood monitoring across diverse environmental and data-limited conditions.

cs.CV

Calculation of sample size guaranteeing the required width of the empirical confidence interval with predefined probability

The goal of any estimation study is an interval estimation of a the parameter(s) of interest. These estimations are mostly expressed using empirical confidence intervals that are based on sample point estimates of the corresponding parameter(s). In contrast, calculations of the necessary sample size usually use expected confidence intervals that are based on the expected value of the parameter(s). The approach that guarantees the required probability of the required width of empirical confidence interval is known at least since 1989. However, till now, this approach is not implemented for most software and is not even described in many modern papers and textbooks. Here we present the concise description of the approach to sample size calculation for obtaining empirical confidence interval of the required width with the predefined probability and give a framework of its general implementation. We illustrate the approach in Normal, Poisson, and Binomial distributions. The numeric results showed that the sample size necessary to obtain the required width of empirical confidence interval with the standard probability of $0.8$ or $0.9$ may be more than 20\% larger than the sample size calculated for the expected values of the parameters.

stat.ME