arXiv subjects

Ilya Usoskin

Publications and source records attributed to Ilya Usoskin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Full Dynamical Model (SOCOL:14C-Ex) of 14C Atmospheric Production and Transport in Application to Miyake Events

Extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) are caused by rare, enormously strong solar eruptions and can produce globally detectable spikes in tree-ring radiocarbon 14C, known as Miyake events, which serve as precise chronological tie-points and indicators of extreme solar activity. After production, radiocarbon is subjected to the complex carbon cycle, including large-scale atmospheric transport, which is crucially important for fast and strong Miyake events with highly inhomogeneous 14C production. A new 3D dynamical model, SOCOL:14C-Ex, of the radiocarbon atmospheric production and transport is presented here, which can model fast changes in the 14C atmospheric concentrations with high temporal and spatial resolution. Precise response curves of $Δ^{14}$C to a reference ESPE (100xGLE#69) were computed for various event dates. They can be directly applied to analyse Miyake events under different conditions. Seven strong events over the past 14 millennia (AD 993, AD 774, 664 BC, 5260 BC, 5411 BC, 7177 BC, and 12351 BC) were analysed by fitting the reference curves to the available annual D14C data, identifying the most probable values and confidence intervals of their parameters -- strength, event's date and background level. By applying corrections for the geomagnetic and atmospheric (CO2) factors, the strengths of the corresponding ESPEs were assessed. The strongest ESPE is confirmed to be that of 12351 BC, while that of AD 774 remains the strongest event during the Holocene. To conclude, a new tool, based on the radiocarbon atmospheric transport model SOCOL:14C-Ex, is presented to analyse fast changes in the $^{14}$C production.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

The First Four Ground-Level Enhancements in the 1940s: Investigation, Digitisation, and Analysis of Forgotten Data

Intense solar eruptions occasionally accelerate solar energetic particles (SEPs) and can trigger ground-level enhancements (GLEs). Among the 77 known GLEs, the first four GLEs, #1 -- 4 in the 1940s took place before the advent of the standard neutron monitors and were missing from the International GLE Database. This data gap challenged their quantification. To overcome this difficulty, we systematically gathered, digitised, and quantified contemporaneous cosmic-ray records pertaining to these GLEs. These data allow us to reconstruct the temporal evolution, with the 1 -- 15 min resolutions, of these GLEs, and broaden their geographical coverage to a global scale. GLEs #1 and #3 exhibited gradual increases in their rise times, measured at 45 +/- 15 and 105 +/- 15 min, respectively. In contrast, GLEs #2 and #4 both exhibited abrupt increases of 15 +/- 15 min. We also compared integral ionisation increase on the standard ionisation chambers and their local geomagnetic cutoff rigidities Pc to qualitatively compare these GLE's spectral hardness: Our result indicates that their spectra are extremely hard for GLEs #2 and #4 and mildly hard for GLEs #1 and #3. GLE #3 showed the greatest integral ionisations for polar detectors among them.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Linking Solar Magnetism, Extreme Solar Particle Events and Stellar Superflares

The magnetic field of the Sun drives a wide range of eruptive phenomena, from small-scale nanoflares to large flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). While direct observations of solar activity cover only the past few decades, indirect evidence indicates that the Sun can occasionally produce events orders of magnitude stronger than any recorded ones in the modern era. Two complementary lines of evidence exist. First, extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) have been inferred from prominent spikes in cosmogenic isotope concentrations preserved in precisely dated natural archives such as tree rings and ice cores over the past 15 millennia. Second, high-precision space-borne photometry has revealed superflares on thousands of stars similar to the Sun. Whether these solar and stellar extremes are physically related remains an open question. We summarise the present state of understanding and discuss physical mechanisms that may link them. Although superflares and ESPEs are both extremely energetic manifestations of magnetic energy storage and release, their relationship does not appear to be one-to-one. Their occurrence and energetics likely depend on how magnetic flux and topology govern the partitioning of released energy between radiation, mass ejection, and particle acceleration.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Cyclic sunspot activity during the first millennium CE as reconstructed from radiocarbon

Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon measurements has improved sufficiently to allow reconstructing solar activity over millennia. Aims. The first detailed reconstruction of solar activity, represented by annual sunspot numbers, is presented for 1-969 CE. Methods. The reconstruction of sunspot numbers from D14C was performed using a physics-based method involving several steps: using a carbon-cycle box model, the 14C production rate, corrected for the geomagnetic shielding, was computed from the measured data; The open solar magnetic flux was computed using a model of the heliospheric cosmic-ray modulation; Sunspot numbers were calculated using a model of the evolution of the Sun's magnetic field. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach was used to account for different sources of uncertainty. Results. Annual sunspot numbers were reconstructed for the first millennium CE. This period includes one extreme solar event of 774 CE and one Grand solar minimum of 650-730 CE. We could identify 91 solar cycles, of which 26 were well-defined, while 24 and 41 were reasonably and poorly defined, respectively. The mean cycle length was 10.6 years, but the lengths of individual cycles vary between 8 and 15 years. The existence of empirical Waldmeier's relations remains inconclusive. No significant periodicities were found beyond the 11-year cycle. Conclusions. This work fills the gap in the solar cycle statistics between the previously reconstructed first millennium BCE and the second millennium CE, providing vital constraints for the solar dynamo and irradiance models. A consistent 3-millennium-long reconstruction of sunspot numbers, based on a composite multi-proxy cosmogenic record, is pending.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Sun-like stars produce superflares roughly once per century

Stellar superflares are energetic outbursts of electromagnetic radiation, similar to solar flares but releasing more energy, up to $10^{36}$ erg on main sequence stars. It is unknown whether the Sun can generate superflares, and if so, how often they might occur. We used photometry from the Kepler space observatory to investigate superflares on other stars with Sun-like fundamental parameters. We identified 2889 superflares on 2527 Sun-like stars, out of 56450 observed. This detection rate indicates that superflares with energies $>10^{34}$ erg occur roughly once per century on stars with Sun-like temperature and variability. The resulting stellar superflare frequency-energy distribution is consistent with an extrapolation of the Sun's flare distribution to higher energies, so we suggest that both are generated by the same physical mechanism.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Solar Cycle Observations

We describe the defining observations of the solar cycle that provide constraints for the dynamo processes operating within the Sun. Specifically, we report on the following topics: historical sunspot numbers and revisions; active region (AR) flux ranges and lifetimes; bipolar magnetic region tilt angles; Hale and Joy's law; the impact of rogue ARs on cycle progression and the amplitude of the following cycle; the spatio-temporal emergence of ARs that creates the butterfly diagram; polar fields; large-scale flows including zonal, meridional, and AR in-flows; short-term cycle variability; and helioseismic results including mode parameter changes.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Long-term forcing of Sun's coronal field, open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism

Magnetic fields generated in the Sun's interior by the solar dynamo mechanism drive solar activity over a range of time-scales. While space-based observations of the Sun's corona exist only for few decades, direct sunspot observations exist for a few centuries, solar open flux and cosmic ray flux variations can be reconstructed through studies of cosmogenic isotopes over thousands of years. While such reconstructions indicate the presence of extreme solar activity fluctuations in the past, causal links between millennia scale dynamo activity, consequent coronal field, solar open flux and cosmic ray modulation remain elusive. By utilizing a stochastically forced solar dynamo model we perform long-term simulations to illuminate how the dynamo generated magnetic fields govern the structure of the solar corona and the state of the heliosphere -- as indicated by variations in the open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential. We establish differences in the nature of the large-scale structuring of the solar corona during grand maximum, minimum, and regular solar activity phases and simulate how the open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential varies over time scales encompassing these different phases of solar activity. We demonstrate that the power spectrum of simulated and reconstructed solar open flux are consistent with each other. Our study provides the theoretical basis for interpreting long-term solar cycle variability based on reconstructions relying on cosmogenic isotopes and connects solar internal variations to the forcing of the state of the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Long-term modulation of solar cycles

Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to very active grand maxima. The ~400-year-long direct sunspot-number series is inhomogeneous in quality and too short to study robust parameters of long-term solar variability. The cosmogenic-isotope proxy extends the timescale to twelve millennia and provides crucial observational constraints of the long-term solar dynamo modulation. Here, we present a brief up-to-date overview of the long-term variability of solar activity at centennial--millennial timescales. The occurrence of grand minima and maxima is discussed as well as the existing quasi-periodicities such as centennial Gleissberg, 210-year Suess/de Vries and 2400-year Hallstatt cycles. It is shown that the solar cycles contain an important random component and have no clock-like phase locking implying a lack of long-term memory. A brief yet comprehensive review of the theoretical perspectives to explain the observed features in the framework of the dynamo models is presented, including the nonlinearity and stochastic fluctuations in the dynamo. We keep gaining knowledge of the processes driving solar variability with the new data acquainted and new models developed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Superflares on solar-like stars: A new method for identifying the true flare sources in photometric surveys

Over the past years, thousands of stellar flares have been detected by harvesting data from large photometric surveys. These detections, however, do not account for potential sources of contamination such as background stars appearing in the same aperture as the primary target. We present a new method for identifying the true flare sources in large photometric surveys using data from the Kepler mission. Potential flares are identified in two steps: first, we search the light curves for at least two subsequent data points exceeding a 5σ threshold above the running mean. For these two cadences, we subtract the "quiet" stellar flux from the Kepler pixel data to obtain new images where the potential flare is the main light source. In the second step, we use a Bayesian approach to fit the point spread function of the instrument to determine the most likely location of the flux excess on the detector. We applied our method to 5862 main-sequence stars with near-solar effective temperatures. We found 2274 events exceeding the 5-sigma in at least two consecutive points in the light curves. Applying the second step reduced this number to 342 superflares. Of these, 283 flares happened on 178 target stars, 47 events are associated with fainter background stars, and in 10 cases, the flare location cannot be distinguished between the target and a background star. We also present cases where flares have been reported previously but our technique could not attribute them to the target star. We conclude that 1) identifying outliers in the light curves alone is insufficient to attribute them to stellar flares and 2) flares can only be uniquely attributed to a certain star when the instrument pixel-level data together with the point spread function are taken into account. As a consequence, previous flare statistics are likely contaminated by instrumental effects and unresolved astrophysical sources.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Solar Energetic Particle Ground-Level Enhancements and the Solar Cycle

Severe geomagnetic storms appear to be ordered by the solar cycle in a number of ways. They occur more frequently close to solar maximum and declining phase, are more common in larger solar cycles and show different patterns of occurrence in odd- and even-numbered solar cycles. Our knowledge of the most extreme space weather events, however, comes from the spikes in cosmogenic-isotope ($^{14}$C, $^{10}$Be and $^{36}$Cl) records that are attributed to significantly larger solar energetic particle (SEP) events than have been observed during the space age. Despite both storms and SEPs being driven by solar eruptive phenomena, the event-by-event correspondence between extreme storms and extreme SEPs is low. Thus it should not be assumed a priori that the solar cycle patterns found for storms also hold for SEPs and the cosmogenic-isotope events. In this study we investigate the solar cycle trends in the timing and magnitude of the 67 SEP ground-level enhancements (GLEs) recorded by neutron monitors since the mid 1950s. Using a number of models of GLE occurrence probability, we show that GLEs are around a factor four more likely around solar maximum than around solar minimum, and that they preferentially occur earlier in even-numbered solar cycles than in odd-numbered cycles. There are insufficient data to conclusively determine whether larger solar cycles produce more GLEs. Implications for putative space-weather events in the cosmogenic-isotope records are discussed. We find that GLEs tend to cluster within a few tens of days, likely due to particularly productive individual active regions, and with approximately 11-year separations, owing to the solar cycle ordering. But these timescales do not explain cosmogenic-isotope spikes which require multiple extreme SEP events over consecutive years.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

High-altitude polar NM with the new DAQ system as a tool to study details of the cosmic-ray induced nucleonic cascade

A neutron monitor (NM) is, since the 1950s, a standard ground-based detector whose count rate reflects cosmic-ray variability. The worldwide network of NMs forms a rough spectrometer for cosmic rays. Recently, a brand-new data acquisition (DAQ) system has been installed on the DOMC and DOMB NMs, located at the Concordia research station on the Central Antarctic plateau. The new DAQ system digitizes, at a 2-MHz sampling rate, and records all individual pulses corresponding to secondary particles in the detector. An analysis of the pulse characteristics (viz. shape, magnitude, duration, waiting time) has been performed, and several clearly distinguishable branches were identified: (A) corresponding to signal from individual secondary neutrons; (B) representing the detector's noise; (C) double pulses corresponding to the {shortly separated nucleons of the same} atmospheric cascades; (D) very-high multiple pulses which are likely caused by atmospheric muons; and (E) double pulses potentially caused by contamination of the neighbouring detector. An analysis of the waiting time distributions has revealed two clearly distinguishable peaks: peak (I) at about 1 msec being related to the intra-cascade diffusion and thermalisation of secondary atmospheric neutrons; and peak (II) at 30--1000 msec corresponding to individual atmospheric cascades. This opens a new possibility to study spectra of cosmic-ray particles in a single location as well as details of the cosmic-ray induced atmospheric cascades, using the same dataset.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2020

Robustness of Solar-Cycle Empirical Rules Across Different Series Including an Updated ADF Sunspot Group Series

Empirical rules of solar cycle evolution form important observational constraints for the solar dynamo theory. This includes the Waldmeier rule relating the magnitude of a solar cycle to the length of its ascending phase, and the Gnevyshev--Ohl rule clustering cycles to pairs of an even-numbered cycle followed by a stronger odd-numbered cycle. These rules were established as based on the "classical" Wolf sunspot number series, which has been essentially revisited recently, with several revised sets released by the research community. Here we test the robustness of these empirical rules for different sunspot (group) series for the period 1749--1996, using four classical and revised international sunspot numbers and group sunspot-number series. We also provide an update of the sunspot group series based on the active-day fraction (ADF) method, using the new database of solar observations. We show that the Waldmeier rule is robust and independent of the exact sunspot (group) series: its classical and $n+1$ (relating the length of $n$-th cycle to the magnitude of ($n+1$)-th cycle) formulations are significant or highly significant for all series, while its simplified formulation (relating the magnitude of a cycle to its full length) is insignificant for all series. The Gnevyshev--Ohl rule was found robust for all analyzed series for Cycles 8--21, but unstable across the Dalton minimum and before it.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

The mini-neutron monitor: A new approach in neutron monitor design

The near-Earth cosmic ray flux has been monitored for more than 70 years by a network of ground-based neutron monitors (NMs). With the ever-increasing importance of quantifying the radiation risk and effects of cosmic rays for, e.g., air and space-travel, it is essential to continue operating the existing NM stations, while expanding this crucial network. In this paper, we discuss a smaller and cost-effective version of the traditional NM, the mini-NM. These monitors can be deployed with ease, even to extremely remote locations, where they operate in a semi-autonomous fashion. We believe that the mini-NM, therefore, offers the opportunity to increase the sensitivity and expand the coverage of the existing NM network, making this network more suitable to near-real-time monitoring for space weather applications. In this paper, we present the technical details of the mini-NM's design and operation, and present a summary of the initial tests and science results.

physics.ins-det↗

arXiv2020

Current status and possible extension of the global neutron monitor network

The global neutron monitor network has been successfully used over several decades to study cosmic ray variations and fluxes of energetic solar particles. Nowadays, it is used also for space weather purposes, e.g. alerts and assessment of the exposure to radiation. Here, we present the current status of the global neutron monitor network. We discuss the ability of the global neutron monitor network to study solar energetic particles, specifically during large ground level enhancements. We demonstrate as an example, the derived solar proton characteristics during ground level enhancements GLE $\#$5 and the resulting effective dose over the globe at a typical commercial jet flight altitude of 40 kft ($\approx$ 12 200m) above sea level. We present a plan for improvement of space weather services and applications of the global neutron monitor network, specifically for studies related to solar energetic particles, namely an extension of the existing network with several new monitors. We discuss the ability of the optimized global neutron monitor network to study various populations of solar energetic particles and to provide reliable space weather services.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2019

Historical astronomical data: urgent need for preservation, digitization enabling scientific exploration

Over the past decades and even centuries, the astronomical community has accumulated a signif-icant heritage of recorded observations of a great many astronomical objects. Those records con-tain irreplaceable information about long-term evolutionary and non-evolutionary changes in our Universe, and their preservation and digitization is vital. Unfortunately, most of those data risk becoming degraded and thence totally lost. We hereby call upon the astronomical community and US funding agencies to recognize the gravity of the situation, and to commit to an interna-tional preservation and digitization efforts through comprehensive long-term planning supported by adequate resources, prioritizing where the expected scientific gains, vulnerability of the origi-nals and availability of relevant infrastructure so dictates. The importance and urgency of this issue has been recognized recently by General Assembly XXX of the International Astronomical Union (IAU) in its Resolution B3: "on preservation, digitization and scientific exploration of his-torical astronomical data". We outline the rationale of this promotion, provide examples of new science through successful recovery efforts, and review the potential losses to science if nothing it done.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

Analysis of the ground level enhancements on 14 July 2000 and on 13 December 2006 using neutron monitor data

On the basis of neutron monitor data we estimate the energy spectrum, anisotropy axis direction and pitch-angle distribution of solar energetic particles during two major ground level enhancements (GLE 59 on 14 July 2000 and GLE 70 on 13 December 2006). For the analysis we use a newly computed neutron monitor yield function. The method consists of several consecutive steps: definition of the asymptotic viewing cones of neutron monitor stations considered for the data analysis by computations of cosmic ray particles propagation in a model magnetosphere with the MAGNETOCOSMICS code; computation of the neutron monitor model responses and derivation of the solar energetic particle characteristics on the basis of inverse problem solution. The pitch-angle distribution and rigidity spectrum of high-energy protons are obtained as function of time in the course of ground level enhancements. A comparison with previously reported results is performed and reasonable agreement is achieved. A discussion of the obtained results is included as well their possible application is included.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2014

A comet could not produce the carbon-14 spike in the 8th century

A mysterious increase of radiocarbon 14C ca. 775 AD in the Earth's atmosphere has been recently found by Miyake et al. (Nature, 486, 240, 2012). A possible source of this event has been discussed widely, the most likely being an extreme solar energetic particle event. A new exotic hypothesis has been presented recently by Liu et al. (Nature Sci. Rep., 4, 3728, 2014) who proposed that the event was caused by a comet bringing additional 14C to Earth. Here we calculated a realistic mass and size of such a comet to show that it would have been huge (~100 km across and 10^{14}-10^{15} ton of mass) and would have produced a disastrous impact on Earth. Such an impact could not remain unnoticed in the geological records and chronicles. The absence of an evidence for such a dramatic event makes this hypothesis invalid.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2014

Critical Analysis of a Hypothesis of the Planetary Tidal Influence on Solar Activity

The present work is a critical revision of the hypothesis of the planetary tidal influence on solar activity published by Abreu et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 548, A88, 2012; called A12 here). A12 describes a hypothesis that planets can have an impact on the solar tachocline and therefore on solar activity. We checked the procedure and results of A12, namely the algorithm of planetary tidal torque calculation and the wavelet coherence between torque and heliospheric modulation potential. We found that the claimed peaks in long-period range of the torque spectrum are artefacts caused by the calculation algorithm. Also the statistical significance of the results of the wavelet coherence is found to be overestimated by an incorrect choice of the background assumption of red noise. Using a more conservative non-parametric random phase method, we found that the long-period coherence between planetary torque and heliospheric modulation potential becomes insignificant. Thus we conclude that the considered hypothesis of planetary tidal influence on solar activity is not based on a solid ground.

astro-ph.EP↗