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Ilya Zaliapin

Publications and source records attributed to Ilya Zaliapin.

21 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Boolean Delay Equations: A simple way of looking at complex systems

Boolean Delay Equations (BDEs) are semi-discrete dynamical models with Boolean-valued variables that evolve in continuous time. Systems of BDEs can be classified into conservative or dissipative, in a manner that parallels the classification of ordinary or partial differential equations. Solutions to certain conservative BDEs exhibit growth of complexity in time. They represent therewith metaphors for biological evolution or human history. Dissipative BDEs are structurally stable and exhibit multiple equilibria and limit cycles, as well as more complex, fractal solution sets, such as Devil's staircases and ``fractal sunbursts``. All known solutions of dissipative BDEs have stationary variance. BDE systems of this type, both free and forced, have been used as highly idealized models of climate change on interannual, interdecadal and paleoclimatic time scales. BDEs are also being used as flexible, highly efficient models of colliding cascades in earthquake modeling and prediction, as well as in genetics. In this paper we review the theory of systems of BDEs and illustrate their applications to climatic and solid earth problems. The former have used small systems of BDEs, while the latter have used large networks of BDEs. We moreover introduce BDEs with an infinite number of variables distributed in space (``partial BDEs``) and discuss connections with other types of dynamical systems, including cellular automata and Boolean networks. This research-and-review paper concludes with a set of open questions.

nlin.CG↗

Predictability of extreme events in a branching diffusion model

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent multi-type branching diffusion process with immigration. A complete analytic description of the size- and space-dependent distributions of particles is derived. We then formulate an extreme event prediction problem and determine characteristic patterns of the system behavior as an extreme event approaches. In particlular, our results imply specific premonitory deviations from self-similarity, which have been heuristically observed in real-world and modeled complex systems. Our results suggest a simple universal mechanism of such premonitory patterns and natural framework for their analytic study.

nlin.AO↗

Inverse Cascade in Percolation Model: Hierarchical Description of Time-dependent Scaling

The dynamics of a 2D site percolation model on a square lattice is studied using the hierarchical approach introduced by Gabrielov et al., Phys. Rev. E, 60, 5293-5300, 1999. The key elements of the approach are the tree representation of clusters and their coalescence, and the Horton-Strahler scheme for cluster ranking. Accordingly, the evolution of percolation model is considered as a hierarchical inverse cascade of cluster aggregation. A three-exponent time-dependent scaling for the cluster rank distribution is derived using the Tokunaga branching constraint and classical results on percolation in terms of cluster masses. Deviations from the pure scaling are described. An empirical constraint on the dynamics of a rank population is reported based on numerical simulations.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗