arXiv subjects

Iman Askari

Publications and source records attributed to Iman Askari.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Accelerating Bayesian Optimization for Nonlinear State-Space System Identification with Application to Lithium-Ion Batteries

This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) to address this problem by leveraging its derivative-free global search capability enabled by surrogate modeling of the likelihood function. Despite these advantages, standard BayesOpt often suffers from slow convergence, high computational cost, and practical difficulty in attaining global optima under limited computational budgets, especially for high-dimensional nonlinear models with many unknown parameters. To overcome these limitations, we propose an accelerated BayesOpt framework that integrates BayesOpt with the Nelder--Mead method. Heuristics-based, the Nelder--Mead method provides fast local search, thereby assisting BayesOpt when the surrogate model lacks fidelity or when over-exploration occurs in broad parameter spaces. The proposed framework incorporates a principled strategy to coordinate the two methods, effectively combining their complementary strengths. The resulting hybrid approach significantly improves both convergence speed and computational efficiency while maintaining strong global search performance. In addition, we leverage an implicit particle filtering method to enable accurate and efficient likelihood evaluation. We validate the proposed framework on the identification of the BattX model for lithium-ion batteries, which features ten state dimensions, 18 unknown parameters, and strong nonlinearity. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach as well as its advantages over alternative methods.

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arXiv2025

Model Predictive Inferential Control of Neural State-Space Models for Autonomous Vehicle Motion Planning

Model predictive control (MPC) has proven useful in enabling safe and optimal motion planning for autonomous vehicles. In this paper, we investigate how to achieve MPC-based motion planning when a neural state-space model represents the vehicle dynamics. As the neural state-space model will lead to highly complex, nonlinear and nonconvex optimization landscapes, mainstream gradient-based MPC methods will struggle to provide viable solutions due to heavy computational load. In a departure, we propose the idea of model predictive inferential control (MPIC), which seeks to infer the best control decisions from the control objectives and constraints. Following this idea, we convert the MPC problem for motion planning into a Bayesian state estimation problem. Then, we develop a new implicit particle filtering/smoothing approach to perform the estimation. This approach is implemented as banks of unscented Kalman filters/smoothers and offers high sampling efficiency, fast computation, and estimation accuracy. We evaluate the MPIC approach through a simulation study of autonomous driving in different scenarios, along with an exhaustive comparison with gradient-based MPC. The simulation results show that the MPIC approach has considerable computational efficiency despite complex neural network architectures and the capability to solve large-scale MPC problems for neural state-space models.

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arXiv2025

MultiNash-PF: A Particle Filtering Approach for Computing Multiple Local Generalized Nash Equilibria in Trajectory Games

Modern robotic systems frequently engage in complex multi-agent interactions, many of which are inherently multi-modal, i.e., they can lead to multiple distinct outcomes. To interact effectively, robots must recognize the possible interaction modes and adapt to the one preferred by other agents. In this work, we propose MultiNash-PF, an efficient algorithm for capturing the multimodality in multi-agent interactions. We model interaction outcomes as equilibria of a game-theoretic planner, where each equilibrium corresponds to a distinct interaction mode. Our framework formulates interactive planning as Constrained Potential Trajectory Games (CPTGs), in which local Generalized Nash Equilibria (GNEs) represent plausible interaction outcomes. We propose to integrate the potential game approach with implicit particle filtering, a sample-efficient method for non-convex trajectory optimization. We utilize implicit particle filtering to identify the coarse estimates of multiple local minimizers of the game's potential function. MultiNash-PF then refines these estimates with optimization solvers, obtaining different local GNEs. We show through numerical simulations that MultiNash-PF reduces computation time by up to 50\% compared to a baseline. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm in real-world human-robot interaction scenarios, where it successfully accounts for the multi-modal nature of interactions and resolves potential conflicts in real-time.

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arXiv2025

Optimal Power Management of Battery Energy Storage Systems via Ensemble Kalman Inversion

Optimal power management of battery energy storage systems (BESS) is crucial for their safe and efficient operation. Numerical optimization techniques are frequently utilized to solve the optimal power management problems. However, these techniques often fall short of delivering real-time solutions for large-scale BESS due to their computational complexity. To address this issue, this paper proposes a computationally efficient approach. We introduce a new set of decision variables called power-sharing ratios corresponding to each cell, indicating their allocated power share from the output power demand. We then formulate an optimal power management problem to minimize the system-wide power losses while ensuring compliance with safety, balancing, and power supply-demand match constraints. To efficiently solve this problem, a parameterized control policy is designed and leveraged to transform the optimal power management problem into a parameter estimation problem. We then implement the ensemble Kalman inversion to estimate the optimal parameter set. The proposed approach significantly reduces computational requirements due to 1) the much lower dimensionality of the decision parameters and 2) the estimation treatment of the optimal power management problem. Finally, we conduct extensive simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show promise in accuracy and computation time compared with explored numerical optimization techniques.

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arXiv2025

Bayesian Inferential Motion Planning Using Heavy-Tailed Distributions

Robots rely on motion planning to navigate safely and efficiently while performing various tasks. In this paper, we investigate motion planning through Bayesian inference, where motion plans are inferred based on planning objectives and constraints. However, existing Bayesian motion planning methods often struggle to explore low-probability regions of the planning space, where high-quality plans may reside. To address this limitation, we propose the use of heavy-tailed distributions -- specifically, Student's-$t$ distributions -- to enhance probabilistic inferential search for motion plans. We develop a novel sequential single-pass smoothing approach that integrates Student's-$t$ distribution with Monte Carlo sampling. A special case of this approach is ensemble Kalman smoothing, which depends on short-tailed Gaussian distributions. We validate the proposed approach through simulations in autonomous vehicle motion planning, demonstrating its superior performance in planning, sampling efficiency, and constraint satisfaction compared to ensemble Kalman smoothing. While focused on motion planning, this work points to the broader potential of heavy-tailed distributions in enhancing probabilistic decision-making in robotics.

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arXiv2025

Motion Planning for Autonomous Vehicles: When Model Predictive Control Meets Ensemble Kalman Smoothing

Safe and efficient motion planning is of fundamental importance for autonomous vehicles. This paper investigates motion planning based on nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) over a neural network vehicle model. We aim to overcome the high computational costs that arise in NMPC of the neural network model due to the highly nonlinear and nonconvex optimization. In a departure from numerical optimization solutions, we reformulate the problem of NMPC-based motion planning as a Bayesian estimation problem, which seeks to infer optimal planning decisions from planning objectives. Then, we use a sequential ensemble Kalman smoother to accomplish the estimation task, exploiting its high computational efficiency for complex nonlinear systems. The simulation results show an improvement in computational speed by orders of magnitude, indicating the potential of the proposed approach for practical motion planning.

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arXiv2025

Optimal Power Management for Large-Scale Battery Energy Storage Systems via Bayesian Inference

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) have found ever-increasing use across industry and society to accelerate clean energy transition and improve energy supply reliability and resilience. However, their optimal power management poses significant challenges: the underlying high-dimensional nonlinear nonconvex optimization lacks computational tractability in real-world implementation, and the uncertainty of the exogenous power demand makes exact optimization difficult. This paper presents a new solution framework to address these bottlenecks. The solution pivots on introducing power-sharing ratios to specify each cell's power quota from the output power demand. To find the optimal power-sharing ratios, we formulate a nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) problem to achieve power-loss-minimizing BESS operation while complying with safety, cell balancing, and power supply-demand constraints. We then propose a parameterized control policy for the power-sharing ratios, which utilizes only three parameters, to reduce the computational demand in solving the NMPC problem. This policy parameterization allows us to translate the NMPC problem into a Bayesian inference problem for the sake of 1) computational tractability, and 2) overcoming the nonconvexity of the optimization problem. We leverage the ensemble Kalman inversion technique to solve the parameter estimation problem. Concurrently, a low-level control loop is developed to seamlessly integrate our proposed approach with the BESS to ensure practical implementation. This low-level controller receives the optimal power-sharing ratios, generates output power references for the cells, and maintains a balance between power supply and demand despite uncertainty in output power. We conduct extensive simulations and experiments on a 20-cell prototype to validate the proposed approach.

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arXiv2023

Implicit Particle Filtering via a Bank of Nonlinear Kalman Filters

The implicit particle filter seeks to mitigate particle degeneracy by identifying particles in the target distribution's high-probability regions. This study is motivated by the need to enhance computational tractability in implementing this approach. We investigate the connection of the particle update step in the implicit particle filter with that of the Kalman filter and then formulate a novel realization of the implicit particle filter based on a bank of nonlinear Kalman filters. This realization is more amenable and efficient computationally.

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arXiv2022

Model Predictive Control of Nonlinear Latent Force Models: A Scenario-Based Approach

Control of nonlinear uncertain systems is a common challenge in the robotics field. Nonlinear latent force models, which incorporate latent uncertainty characterized as Gaussian processes, carry the promise of representing such systems effectively, and we focus on the control design for them in this work. To enable the design, we adopt the state-space representation of a Gaussian process to recast the nonlinear latent force model and thus build the ability to predict the future state and uncertainty concurrently. Using this feature, a stochastic model predictive control problem is formulated. To derive a computational algorithm for the problem, we use the scenario-based approach to formulate a deterministic approximation of the stochastic optimization. We evaluate the resultant scenario-based model predictive control approach through a simulation study based on motion planning of an autonomous vehicle, which shows much effectiveness. The proposed approach can find prospective use in various other robotics applications.

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arXiv2022

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Based on Constraint-Aware Particle Filtering/Smoothing

Nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) has gained widespread use in many applications. Its formulation traditionally involves repetitively solving a nonlinear constrained optimization problem online. In this paper, we investigate NMPC through the lens of Bayesian estimation and highlight that the Monte Carlo sampling method can offer a favorable way to implement NMPC. We develop a constraint-aware particle filtering/smoothing method and exploit it to implement NMPC. The new sampling-based NMPC algorithm can be executed easily and efficiently even for complex nonlinear systems, while potentially mitigating the issues of computational complexity and local minima faced by numerical optimization in conventional studies. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is evaluated through a simulation study.

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arXiv2022

Sampling-Based Nonlinear MPC of Neural Network Dynamics with Application to Autonomous Vehicle Motion Planning

Control of machine learning models has emerged as an important paradigm for a broad range of robotics applications. In this paper, we present a sampling-based nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) approach for control of neural network dynamics. We show its design in two parts: 1) formulating conventional optimization-based NMPC as a Bayesian state estimation problem, and 2) using particle filtering/smoothing to achieve the estimation. Through a principled sampling-based implementation, this approach can potentially make effective searches in the control action space for optimal control and also facilitate computation toward overcoming the challenges caused by neural network dynamics. We apply the proposed NMPC approach to motion planning for autonomous vehicles. The specific problem considers nonlinear unknown vehicle dynamics modeled as neural networks as well as dynamic on-road driving scenarios. The approach shows significant effectiveness in successful motion planning in case studies.

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