arXiv subjects

Imme Ebert-Uphoff

Publications and source records attributed to Imme Ebert-Uphoff.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

C3DIR: A Deep Learning 3-Dimensional Cloud Property Retrieval Scheme for Passive Satellite Imagers

We develop the Cloud 3-Dimensional Imager Retrieval (C3DIR), a deep learning model that estimates 3-D cloud properties for multiple passive satellite imagers trained to match retrievals from the Earth Cloud Aerosol and Radiation Explorer(EarthCARE) ACM-CAP product. This work is aimed towards moving AI/ML 3-D cloud algorithms closer towards operational use. C3DIR predicts the occurrence water content of ice, cloud liquid, and rain along the imager line-of-sight and uses a voxel-level collocation approach to account for the misaligned viewing geometries of passive imagers and active profiling instruments. This precise collocation methodology allows for constructing vertical profiles using voxels contained by multiple imager pixels to facilitate comparisons with active profiling instruments. Qualitative case studies show that C3DIR can accurately depict multiple distinct overlapping cloud layers, albeit with some smoothing. Quantitative evaluations illustrate that C3DIR overall excels at hydrometeor detection which intuitively tends to be a function of water content. However, detection of voxels classified as liquid cloud remains difficult due to the their small geometric thickness, finer horizontal scale, and frequent tendency to be obscured or embedded within ice clouds. In general, water content estimation is reasonably accurate, yielding the best results in ice clouds but uncertainties remain for liquid and rain water content. Column-integrated water paths are in tighter agreement with EarthCARE. Comparisons with the algorithms underpinning current NOAA operational products highlight several areas where C3DIR may offer improvement. Overall, these results demonstrate the potential for C3DIR to provide flexible 3-D output depicting vertically resolved cloud structure which can offer broader utility for aviation applications, numerical weather modeling, and climate research.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Using machine learning to downscale coarse-resolution environmental variables for understanding the spatial frequency of convective storms

Global climate models (GCMs), typically run at ~100-km resolution, capture large-scale environmental conditions but cannot resolve convection and cloud processes at kilometer scales. Convection-permitting models offer higher-resolution simulations that explicitly simulate convection but are computationally expensive and impractical for large ensemble runs. This study explores machine learning (ML) as a bridge between these approaches. We train simple, pixel-based neural networks to predict convective storm frequency from environmental variables produced by a regional convection-permitting model. The ML models achieve promising results, with structural similarity index measure (SSIM) values exceeding 0.8, capturing the diurnal cycle and orographic convection without explicit temporal or spatial coordinates as input. Model performance declines when fewer input features are used or specific regions are excluded, underscoring the role of diverse physical mechanisms in convective activity. These findings highlight ML potential as a computationally efficient tool for representing convection and as a means of scientific discovery, offering insights into convective processes. Unlike convolutional neural networks, which depend on spatial structure and grid size, the pixel-based model treats each grid point independently, enabling value-to-value prediction without spatial context. This design enhances adaptability to resolution changes and supports generalization to unseen environmental regimes, making it particularly suited for linking environmental conditions to convective features and for application across diverse model grids or climate scenarios.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2025

Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning: Illustrating the use of Explainable Boosting Machines to Identify Overshooting Tops in Satellite Imagery

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged in many meteorological applications. However, these algorithms struggle to extrapolate beyond the data they were trained on, i.e., they may adopt faulty strategies that lead to catastrophic failures. These failures are difficult to predict due to the opaque nature of ML algorithms. In high-stakes applications, such as severe weather forecasting, is is crucial to avoid such failures. One approach to address this issue is to develop more interpretable ML algorithms. The primary goal of this work is to illustrate the use of a specific interpretable ML algorithm that has not yet found much use in meteorology, Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs). We demonstrate that EBMs are particularly suitable to implement human-guided strategies in an ML algorithm. As guiding example, we show how to develop an EBM to detect overshooting tops (OTs) in satellite imagery. EBMs require input features to be scalar. We use techniques from Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning to first extract scalar features from meteorological imagery. For the application of identifying OTs this includes extracting cloud texture from satellite imagery using Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrices. Once trained, the EBM was examined and minimally altered to more closely match strategies used by domain scientists to identify OTs. The result of our efforts is a fully interpretable ML algorithm developed in a human-machine collaboration that uses human-guided strategies. While the final model does not reach the accuracy of more complex approaches, it performs reasonably well and we hope paves the way for building more interpretable ML algorithms for this and other meteorological applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

How to use score-based diffusion in earth system science: A satellite nowcasting example

Machine learning (ML) is used for many earth science applications; however, traditional ML methods trained with squared errors often create blurry forecasts. Diffusion models are an emerging generative ML technique with the ability to produce sharper, more realistic images by learning the underlying data distribution. Diffusion models are becoming more prevalent, yet adapting them for earth science applications can be challenging because most articles focus on theoretical aspects of the approach, rather than making the method widely accessible. This work illustrates score-based diffusion models with a well-known problem in atmospheric science: cloud nowcasting (zero-to-three-hour forecast). After discussing the background and intuition of score-based diffusion models using examples from geostationary satellite infrared imagery, we experiment with three types of diffusion models: a standard score-based diffusion model (Diff); a residual correction diffusion model (CorrDiff); and a latent diffusion model (LDM). Our results show that the diffusion models not only advect existing clouds, but also generate and decay clouds, including convective initiation. A case study qualitatively shows the preservation of high-resolution features longer into the forecast than a conventional U-Net. The best of the three diffusion models tested was the CorrDiff approach, outperforming all other diffusion models, the conventional U-Net, and persistence. The diffusion models also enable out-of-the-box ensemble generation with skillful calibration. By explaining and exploring diffusion models for a common problem and ending with lessons learned from adapting diffusion models for our task, this work provides a starting point for the community to utilize diffusion models for a variety of earth science applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Center-fixing of tropical cyclones using uncertainty-aware deep learning applied to high-temporal-resolution geostationary satellite imagery

Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/future estimates of track, intensity, and structure. Despite a recent increase in automated center-fixing methods, only one such method (ARCHER-2) is operational, and its best performance is achieved when using microwave or scatterometer data, which are often unavailable. We develop a deep-learning algorithm called GeoCenter; besides a few scalars in the operational Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System, it relies only on geostationary infrared (IR) satellite imagery, which is available for all TC basins at high frequency (10 min) and low latency (< 10 min) during both day and night. GeoCenter ingests an animation (time series) of IR images, including 9 channels at lag times up to 4 hours. The animation is centered at a "first guess" location, offset from the true TC-center location by 48 km on average and sometimes > 100 km; GeoCenter is tasked with correcting this offset. On an independent testing dataset, GeoCenter achieves a mean/median/RMS (root mean square) error of 26.6/22.2/32.4 km for all systems, 24.7/20.8/30.0 km for tropical systems, and 14.6/12.5/17.3 km for category-2--5 hurricanes. These values are similar to ARCHER-2 errors with microwave or scatterometer data, and better than ARCHER-2 errors when only IR data are available. GeoCenter also performs skillful uncertainty quantification, producing a well calibrated ensemble of 150 TC-center locations. Furthermore, all predictors used by GeoCenter are available in real time, which would make GeoCenter easy to implement operationally every 10 min.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts from Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) Models

In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to operational forecasting has yet to be adequately explored and documented. To assess their utility for operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the NHC verification procedure is used to evaluate seven-day track and intensity predictions for northern hemisphere TCs from May-November 2023. Four open-source AIWP models are considered (FourCastNetv1, FourCastNetv2-small, GraphCast-operational and Pangu-Weather). The AIWP track forecast errors and detection rates are comparable to those from the best-performing operational forecast models. However, the AIWP intensity forecast errors are larger than those of even the simplest intensity forecasts based on climatology and persistence. The AIWP models almost always reduce the TC intensity, especially within the first 24 h of the forecast, resulting in a substantial low bias. The contribution of the AIWP models to the NHC model consensus was also evaluated. The consensus track errors are reduced by up to 11% at the longer time periods. The five-day NHC official track forecasts have improved by about 2% per year since 2001, so this represents more than a five-year gain in accuracy. Despite substantial negative intensity biases, the AIWP models have a neutral impact on the intensity consensus. These results show that the current formulation of the AIWP models have promise for operational TC track forecasts, but improved bias corrections or model reformulations will be needed for accurate intensity forecasts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

SRViT: Vision Transformers for Estimating Radar Reflectivity from Satellite Observations at Scale

We introduce a transformer-based neural network to generate high-resolution (3km) synthetic radar reflectivity fields at scale from geostationary satellite imagery. This work aims to enhance short-term convective-scale forecasts of high-impact weather events and aid in data assimilation for numerical weather prediction over the United States. Compared to convolutional approaches, which have limited receptive fields, our results show improved sharpness and higher accuracy across various composite reflectivity thresholds. Additional case studies over specific atmospheric phenomena support our quantitative findings, while a novel attribution method is introduced to guide domain experts in understanding model outputs.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

Can we integrate spatial verification methods into neural-network loss functions for atmospheric science?

In the last decade, much work in atmospheric science has focused on spatial verification (SV) methods for gridded prediction, which overcome serious disadvantages of pixelwise verification. However, neural networks (NN) in atmospheric science are almost always trained to optimize pixelwise loss functions, even when ultimately assessed with SV methods. This establishes a disconnect between model verification during vs. after training. To address this issue, we develop spatially enhanced loss functions (SELF) and demonstrate their use for a real-world problem: predicting the occurrence of thunderstorms (henceforth, "convection") with NNs. In each SELF we use either a neighbourhood filter, which highlights convection at scales larger than a threshold, or a spectral filter (employing Fourier or wavelet decomposition), which is more flexible and highlights convection at scales between two thresholds. We use these filters to spatially enhance common verification scores, such as the Brier score. We train each NN with a different SELF and compare their performance at many scales of convection, from discrete storm cells to tropical cyclones. Among our many findings are that (a) for a low (high) risk threshold, the ideal SELF focuses on small (large) scales; (b) models trained with a pixelwise loss function perform surprisingly well; (c) however, models trained with a spectral filter produce much better-calibrated probabilities than a pixelwise model. We provide a general guide to using SELFs, including technical challenges and the final Python code, as well as demonstrating their use for the convection problem. To our knowledge this is the most in-depth guide to SELFs in the geosciences.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Tools for Extracting Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Meteorological Image Sequences: From Feature Engineering to Attention-Based Neural Networks

Atmospheric processes involve both space and time. This is why human analysis of atmospheric imagery can often extract more information from animated loops of image sequences than from individual images. Automating such an analysis requires the ability to identify spatio-temporal patterns in image sequences which is a very challenging task, because of the endless possibilities of patterns in both space and time. In this paper we review different concepts and techniques that are useful to extract spatio-temporal context specifically for meteorological applications. In this survey we first motivate the need for these approaches in meteorology using two applications, solar forecasting and detecting convection from satellite imagery. Then we provide an overview of many different concepts and techniques that are helpful for the interpretation of meteorological image sequences, such as (1) feature engineering methods to strengthen the desired signal in the input, using meteorological knowledge, classic image processing, harmonic analysis and topological data analysis (2) explain how different convolution filters (2D/3D/LSTM-convolution) can be utilized strategically in convolutional neural network architectures to find patterns in both space and time (3) discuss the powerful new concept of 'attention' in neural networks and the powerful abilities it brings to the interpretation of image sequences (4) briefly survey strategies from unsupervised, self-supervised and transfer learning to reduce the need for large labeled datasets. We hope that presenting an overview of these tools - many of which are underutilized - will help accelerate progress in this area.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Investigating the fidelity of explainable artificial intelligence methods for applications of convolutional neural networks in geoscience

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have recently attracted great attention in geoscience due to their ability to capture non-linear system behavior and extract predictive spatiotemporal patterns. Given their black-box nature however, and the importance of prediction explainability, methods of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) are gaining popularity as a means to explain the CNN decision-making strategy. Here, we establish an intercomparison of some of the most popular XAI methods and investigate their fidelity in explaining CNN decisions for geoscientific applications. Our goal is to raise awareness of the theoretical limitations of these methods and gain insight into the relative strengths and weaknesses to help guide best practices. The considered XAI methods are first applied to an idealized attribution benchmark, where the ground truth of explanation of the network is known a priori, to help objectively assess their performance. Secondly, we apply XAI to a climate-related prediction setting, namely to explain a CNN that is trained to predict the number of atmospheric rivers in daily snapshots of climate simulations. Our results highlight several important issues of XAI methods (e.g., gradient shattering, inability to distinguish the sign of attribution, ignorance to zero input) that have previously been overlooked in our field and, if not considered cautiously, may lead to a distorted picture of the CNN decision-making strategy. We envision that our analysis will motivate further investigation into XAI fidelity and will help towards a cautious implementation of XAI in geoscience, which can lead to further exploitation of CNNs and deep learning for prediction problems.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

Carefully choose the baseline: Lessons learned from applying XAI attribution methods for regression tasks in geoscience

Methods of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) are used in geoscientific applications to gain insights into the decision-making strategy of Neural Networks (NNs) highlighting which features in the input contribute the most to a NN prediction. Here, we discuss our lesson learned that the task of attributing a prediction to the input does not have a single solution. Instead, the attribution results and their interpretation depend greatly on the considered baseline (sometimes referred to as reference point) that the XAI method utilizes; a fact that has been overlooked so far in the literature. This baseline can be chosen by the user or it is set by construction in the method s algorithm, often without the user being aware of that choice. We highlight that different baselines can lead to different insights for different science questions and, thus, should be chosen accordingly. To illustrate the impact of the baseline, we use a large ensemble of historical and future climate simulations forced with the SSP3-7.0 scenario and train a fully connected NN to predict the ensemble- and global-mean temperature (i.e., the forced global warming signal) given an annual temperature map from an individual ensemble member. We then use various XAI methods and different baselines to attribute the network predictions to the input. We show that attributions differ substantially when considering different baselines, as they correspond to answering different science questions. We conclude by discussing some important implications and considerations about the use of baselines in XAI research.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2022

A Primer on Topological Data Analysis to Support Image Analysis Tasks in Environmental Science

Topological data analysis (TDA) is a tool from data science and mathematics that is beginning to make waves in environmental science. In this work, we seek to provide an intuitive and understandable introduction to a tool from TDA that is particularly useful for the analysis of imagery, namely persistent homology. We briefly discuss the theoretical background but focus primarily on understanding the output of this tool and discussing what information it can glean. To this end, we frame our discussion around a guiding example of classifying satellite images from the Sugar, Fish, Flower, and Gravel Dataset produced for the study of mesocale organization of clouds by Rasp et. al. in 2020 (arXiv:1906:01906). We demonstrate how persistent homology and its vectorization, persistence landscapes, can be used in a workflow with a simple machine learning algorithm to obtain good results, and explore in detail how we can explain this behavior in terms of image-level features. One of the core strengths of persistent homology is how interpretable it can be, so throughout this paper we discuss not just the patterns we find, but why those results are to be expected given what we know about the theory of persistent homology. Our goal is that a reader of this paper will leave with a better understanding of TDA and persistent homology, be able to identify problems and datasets of their own for which persistent homology could be helpful, and gain an understanding of results they obtain from applying the included GitHub example code.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Neural Network Attribution Methods for Problems in Geoscience: A Novel Synthetic Benchmark Dataset

Despite the increasingly successful application of neural networks to many problems in the geosciences, their complex and nonlinear structure makes the interpretation of their predictions difficult, which limits model trust and does not allow scientists to gain physical insights about the problem at hand. Many different methods have been introduced in the emerging field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), which aim at attributing the network s prediction to specific features in the input domain. XAI methods are usually assessed by using benchmark datasets (like MNIST or ImageNet for image classification). However, an objective, theoretically derived ground truth for the attribution is lacking for most of these datasets, making the assessment of XAI in many cases subjective. Also, benchmark datasets specifically designed for problems in geosciences are rare. Here, we provide a framework, based on the use of additively separable functions, to generate attribution benchmark datasets for regression problems for which the ground truth of the attribution is known a priori. We generate a large benchmark dataset and train a fully connected network to learn the underlying function that was used for simulation. We then compare estimated heatmaps from different XAI methods to the ground truth in order to identify examples where specific XAI methods perform well or poorly. We believe that attribution benchmarks as the ones introduced herein are of great importance for further application of neural networks in the geosciences, and for more objective assessment and accurate implementation of XAI methods, which will increase model trust and assist in discovering new science.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2021

The Need for Ethical, Responsible, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence for Environmental Sciences

Given the growing use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods across all aspects of environmental sciences, it is imperative that we initiate a discussion about the ethical and responsible use of AI. In fact, much can be learned from other domains where AI was introduced, often with the best of intentions, yet often led to unintended societal consequences, such as hard coding racial bias in the criminal justice system or increasing economic inequality through the financial system. A common misconception is that the environmental sciences are immune to such unintended consequences when AI is being used, as most data come from observations, and AI algorithms are based on mathematical formulas, which are often seen as objective. In this article, we argue the opposite can be the case. Using specific examples, we demonstrate many ways in which the use of AI can introduce similar consequences in the environmental sciences. This article will stimulate discussion and research efforts in this direction. As a community, we should avoid repeating any foreseeable mistakes made in other domains through the introduction of AI. In fact, with proper precautions, AI can be a great tool to help {\it reduce} climate and environmental injustice. We primarily focus on weather and climate examples but the conclusions apply broadly across the environmental sciences.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

CIRA Guide to Custom Loss Functions for Neural Networks in Environmental Sciences -- Version 1

Neural networks are increasingly used in environmental science applications. Furthermore, neural network models are trained by minimizing a loss function, and it is crucial to choose the loss function very carefully for environmental science applications, as it determines what exactly is being optimized. Standard loss functions do not cover all the needs of the environmental sciences, which makes it important for scientists to be able to develop their own custom loss functions so that they can implement many of the classic performance measures already developed in environmental science, including measures developed for spatial model verification. However, there are very few resources available that cover the basics of custom loss function development comprehensively, and to the best of our knowledge none that focus on the needs of environmental scientists. This document seeks to fill this gap by providing a guide on how to write custom loss functions targeted toward environmental science applications. Topics include the basics of writing custom loss functions, common pitfalls, functions to use in loss functions, examples such as fractions skill score as loss function, how to incorporate physical constraints, discrete and soft discretization, and concepts such as focal, robust, and adaptive loss. While examples are currently provided in this guide for Python with Keras and the TensorFlow backend, the basic concepts also apply to other environments, such as Python with PyTorch. Similarly, while the sample loss functions provided here are from meteorology, these are just examples of how to create custom loss functions. Other fields in the environmental sciences have very similar needs for custom loss functions, e.g., for evaluating spatial forecasts effectively, and the concepts discussed here can be applied there as well. All code samples are provided in a GitHub repository.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Physically Interpretable Neural Networks for the Geosciences: Applications to Earth System Variability

Neural networks have become increasingly prevalent within the geosciences, although a common limitation of their usage has been a lack of methods to interpret what the networks learn and how they make decisions. As such, neural networks have often been used within the geosciences to most accurately identify a desired output given a set of inputs, with the interpretation of what the network learns used as a secondary metric to ensure the network is making the right decision for the right reason. Neural network interpretation techniques have become more advanced in recent years, however, and we therefore propose that the ultimate objective of using a neural network can also be the interpretation of what the network has learned rather than the output itself. We show that the interpretation of neural networks can enable the discovery of scientifically meaningful connections within geoscientific data. In particular, we use two methods for neural network interpretation called backwards optimization and layerwise relevance propagation, both of which project the decision pathways of a network back onto the original input dimensions. To the best of our knowledge, LRP has not yet been applied to geoscientific research, and we believe it has great potential in this area. We show how these interpretation techniques can be used to reliably infer scientifically meaningful information from neural networks by applying them to common climate patterns. These results suggest that combining interpretable neural networks with novel scientific hypotheses will open the door to many new avenues in neural network-related geoscience research.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Indicator patterns of forced change learned by an artificial neural network

Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the "noise" of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the year of input maps of temperature and precipitation from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as "reliable indicators" of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal-to-noise ratios and multi-linear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Evaluation, Tuning and Interpretation of Neural Networks for Meteorological Applications

Neural networks have opened up many new opportunities to utilize remotely sensed images in meteorology. Common applications include image classification, e.g., to determine whether an image contains a tropical cyclone, and image translation, e.g., to emulate radar imagery for satellites that only have passive channels. However, there are yet many open questions regarding the use of neural networks in meteorology, such as best practices for evaluation, tuning and interpretation. This article highlights several strategies and practical considerations for neural network development that have not yet received much attention in the meteorological community, such as the concept of effective receptive fields, underutilized meteorological performance measures, and methods for NN interpretation, such as synthetic experiments and layer-wise relevance propagation. We also consider the process of neural network interpretation as a whole, recognizing it as an iterative scientist-driven discovery process, and breaking it down into individual steps that researchers can take. Finally, while most work on neural network interpretation in meteorology has so far focused on networks for image classification tasks, we expand the focus to also include networks for image translation.

physics.ao-ph↗