arXiv subjects

Imre Bartos

Publications and source records attributed to Imre Bartos.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Upstream neutrino production and delayed jet emission in the blazar GB6 J1542+6129

We present a multimessenger case study of the blazar GB6 J1542+6129, examining whether its multiwavelength behavior is consistent with neutrino production in a compact region near the central black hole, or with the parsec-scale radio jet. We perform a multimessenger analysis combining ~17 years of Fermi-LAT gamma-ray data with ~14 years of VLBI/MOJAVE. These are compared to the temporal properties of a suspected IceCube neutrino flare with a duration of $147^{+110}_{-25}$ days, enabling a direct test of spatial and causal connections between neutrino and electromagnetic emission regions. We find that the suspected neutrino flare appears to precede both a $γ$-ray flare and a pronounced increase in the VLBI core Doppler factor by up to ~1 year. The duration of the post-flare $γ$-ray activity is comparable to that of the neutrino flare, which, in our framework, is consistent with both signatures originating from a single propagating disturbance whose temporal structure is preserved during the propagation. The gamma-ray spectral energy distribution remains consistent in shape across the full, flare, and post-flare intervals, indicating stable particle acceleration conditions. The temporal ordering, taken at face value, places the neutrino production site upstream of the VLBI core. The observations of GB6 J1542+6129 are consistent with a disturbance-driven, multi-zone scenario in which neutrinos are produced in a compact, photon-rich inner region upstream of the parsec-scale VLBI core, plausibly at the coronal region, while the same disturbance later enhances Doppler-boosted leptonic emission once it reaches the radio core. While the data alone do not strictly establish this scenario on a population level, they show how time-domain multimessenger observations of a single AGN can localize neutrino emission relative to the parsec-scale radio jet in a particular source.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Correlation Between Hard X-Ray and Cosmic Neutrino Sources: From Obscured AGN to Blazars

The origin of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos remains a key open question in multimessenger astrophysics. A correlation between unabsorbed hard X-ray and high-energy neutrino luminosity has been reported in six active galactic nuclei with the highest individual IceCube significances, linking neutrino production to compact, photon-rich environments near supermassive black holes. We study whether the threshold-near IceCube excesses associated with seven NuSTAR-observed blazars are statistically consistent with that relation. Calibrating the $L_\mathrm{hX}$-$L_ν$ relation on the six published sources via a Bayesian regression with errors on both axes, the slope is consistent with $β= 1$ and the intrinsic scatter is $\sim 0.6$\,dex. All seven new blazars are posterior-predictively consistent with this calibration ($χ^2_7 = 1.58$, $p = 0.98$) under the working hypothesis that the published IceCube $\hat{n}_s$ values reflect the signal. A null-injection test confirms that, at the present calibration sample size, the consistency test does not by itself adjudicate between signal and selected-background origins. A distance-free $L_\mathrm{hX}/L_ν$ ratio diagnostic places both populations within the photohadronic prediction band, statistically indistinguishable. Two diagnostics that control the common $d_L^{\,2}$ distance bias, a redshift-partial rank correlation ($τ|z = 0.69$, $\sim\!2.7\,σ$) and a flux-space permutation test on the 13-source joint sample ($p = 6.3\times10^{-4}$, $3.23\,σ$), indicate a residual $L_\mathrm{hX}$-$L_ν$ association beyond the distance-induced trend. We interpret these results as a conditional consistency check; a detection-level statement requires either an enlarged calibration set or an X-ray-weighted IceCube stacking likelihood with internal data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Recoil-regulated extreme mass-ratio inspirals in AGN disks

Extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are among the primary targets of future space-based gravitational-wave observatories, such as LISA, TianQin, and Taiji. Active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks provide a gas-rich environment in which stellar-mass black holes can migrate toward central supermassive black holes and form EMRIs. Previous studies of this ``wet'' channel have largely neglected stellar interactions within the disk. Here we show that binary formation, hierarchical mergers, and recoil kicks fundamentally regulate wet EMRI formation in AGN disks. Using semi-analytical AGN disk models combined with Monte Carlo simulations across supermassive black hole masses of $10^5$--$10^7M_\odot$ and Eddington ratios of $10^{-3}$-1, we find that recoil kicks from mergers and binary--single interactions repeatedly lift stellar-mass black holes out of the disk plane, temporarily interrupting migration and strongly suppressing EMRI formation in much of parameter space. Detectable EMRIs are therefore preferentially produced in young AGNs, typically within $\sim$ 10-20Myr of disk formation, and often involve merger-grown secondary black holes. We predict LISA detection rates of $\sim$ 1-30yr$^{-1}$, with the observable population dominated by low-mass AGNs and sensitive to the poorly constrained demographics of faint active nuclei. Our results identify stellar interactions as a key ingredient in the evolution of compact objects in AGN disks and show that future EMRI observations can probe both AGN disk physics and the low-mass AGN population.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Artificial Precision Timing Array: bridging the decihertz gravitational-wave sensitivity gap with clock satellites

Gravitational-wave astronomy has developed enormously over the last decade, with the first detections and continuous development across broad frequency bands. However, the decihertz range has largely been left out of this development. Gravitational waves in this band are emitted by some of the most enigmatic sources, including intermediate-mass binary black hole mergers, early inspiraling compact binaries$\unicode{x2014}$whose mergers are seen by Earth-based detectors$\unicode{x2014}$, and possibly primordial gravitational waves. To tap this exciting band, we propose the construction of a detector based on pulsar timing principles, the Artificial Precision Timing Array (APTA). We envision APTA as a solar system array of artificial ``pulsars''$\unicode{x2014}$precision-time-reference-carrying satellites that emit periodic electromagnetic signals towards Earth or another satellite constellation receiver location. In this fundamental study, we estimate the clock precision needed for gravitational-wave detection with APTA. Our results suggest that 6 satellites and a clock relative uncertainty of $10^{-18}$ at 1~s of averaging, which is currently attainable with ground-based atomic clocks, would be sufficient for APTA to reach pristine sensitivity in the decihertz band and observe $10^3\unicode{x2013}10^4$ $\mathrm{M}_\odot$ black hole mergers and the early inspiral of heavy LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA sources. Future clock and oscillator technologies realistically expected in the next decade(s) would enable the detection of an increasingly diverse set of sources, allowing APTA to reach a better sensitivity than other detector concepts proposed for the decihertz band. This work opens up a new area of research into designing and constructing gravitational-wave detectors relying on principles used successfully in pulsar timing.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

The Cost of Circularity: Quantifying Eccentricity-Induced Biases in Binary Black Hole Inference

Dynamically assembled binary black holes are expected to retain measurable orbital eccentricity in the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA band, but most parameter estimation analyses still assume quasi-circular inspirals. This raises a critical question: how strongly does unmodeled eccentricity bias the inferred properties of BBH mergers? We address this by injecting eccentric signals generated with TEOBResumS-Dali and recovering them using the circular, precessing IMRPhenomXPHM waveform model. Across $20$-$80 \, M_\odot$ and eccentricities up to $e=0.5$, we find that circular waveform models remain reliable only for very small eccentricities. Above $e\sim0.2$ at 10 Hz, recovered masses, spins, inclination, and distances begin to show significant systematic offsets. Circular precessing templates mimic eccentric amplitude and phase modulations by introducing artificial precession, highlighting a major degeneracy between these effects. For high-mass, moderately eccentric mergers, circular models misestimate parameters at a level that would bias astrophysical interpretation and population studies. Our results establish the parameter-space boundaries where eccentric waveform models become essential for accurate inference in current and next-generation detectors.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

A Seyfert galaxy as a hidden counterpart to a neutrino-associated blazar

The origin and production mechanisms of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos remain open questions in multimessenger astronomy. Previous studies have hinted at a possible linear correlation between the hard X-ray and high-energy neutrino emission in active galactic nuclei. New \textit{NuSTAR} observations, first presented here, reveal that blazar PKS 1424+240, located within a prominent IceCube neutrino hotspot, is far fainter in hard X-rays than expected from this trend. Motivated by this apparent ambiguity, we identify the nearby Seyfert galaxy NGC 5610, also coincident with the hotspot, whose unabsorbed hard X-ray flux exceeds that of PKS 1424+240 by about an order of magnitude. When the local IceCube neutrino flux is apportioned between the two AGN in proportion to their hard X-ray emission, both align with the previously suggested X-ray-neutrino correlation. This suggests that certain IceCube hotspots may be unresolved blends of multiple AGN, and supports a multimessenger scenario in which high-energy neutrinos and hard X-rays originate from the same hadronic interactions, with the X-ray emission produced through cascade reprocessing.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Accretion is All You Need: Black Hole Spin Alignment in Merger GW231123 Indicates Accretion Pathway

GW231123 represents the most massive binary-black-hole merger detected to date, lying firmly within, or even above, the pair-instability mass gap. The component spins are both exceptionally high ($a_1 = 0.90^{+0.10}_{-0.19}$, $a_2 = 0.80^{+0.20}_{-0.51}$), which is difficult to explain with repeated mergers. Here we show that the black hole spin vectors are closely aligned with each other while significantly tilted relative to the binary's orbital angular momentum, pointing to a common accretion-driven origin. We examine astrophysical formation channels capable of producing near-equal, high-mass, and mutually aligned spins consistent with GW231123 -- particularly binaries embedded in AGN disks and Pop~III remnants, which grew via coherent misaligned gas accretion. We further argue that other high-mass, high-spin events, e.g., GW190521 may share a similar evolutionary pathway. These findings underscore the critical role of sustained, coherent accretion in shaping the most extreme black hole binaries.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Rare Transients in Nearby Galaxies Explain Ultra-high-energy Cosmic Rays

The origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays remains one of the central open questions in astroparticle physics. Recent measurements reveal anisotropies in arrival directions, a rigidity-dependent composition dominated by intermediate-mass nuclei, and striking hemispheric differences in the energy spectra. Here we show that \emph{rare transients in nearby galaxies} can naturally account for these features. In our fiducial neutron-star merger model, the cosmic ray flux above $25$~EeV is dominated by ten nearby galaxies within $8\,$Mpc. This accounts for the observed hotspots: seven of the ten brightest galaxies coincide with reported excess regions, a chance probability of $p\sim0.001$. Nearby transients can also explain the spectral excess of TA over Auger and modify the rigidity--aligned succession of isotopes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

What Determines the Maximum Mass of AGN-assisted Black Hole Mergers?

The origin of merging binary black holes detected through gravitational waves remains a fundamental question in astrophysics. While stellar evolution imposes an upper mass limit of about 50 solar mass for black holes, some observed mergers--most notably GW190521--involve significantly more massive components, suggesting alternative formation channels. Here we investigate the maximum masses attainable by black hole mergers within active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks. Using a comprehensive semi-analytic model incorporating 27 binary and environmental parameters, we explore the role of AGN disk conditions in shaping the upper end of the black hole mass spectrum. We find that AGN disk lifetime is the dominant factor, with high-mass mergers (>200 solar mass) only possible if disks persist for ~40 Myr. The joint electromagnetic observation of an AGN-assisted merger could therefore lead to a direct measurement of the age of an AGN disk.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Reconstructing the origin of black hole mergers using sparse astrophysical models

The astrophysical origin of binary black hole mergers discovered by LIGO and Virgo remains uncertain. Efforts to reconstruct the processes that lead to mergers typically rely on either astrophysical models with fixed parameters, or continuous analytical models that can be fit to observations. Given the complexity of astrophysical formation mechanisms, these methods typically cannot fully take into account model uncertainties, nor can they fully capture the underlying processes. Here, we present a merger population analysis that can take a discrete set of simulated model distributions as its input to interpret observations. The analysis can take into account multiple formation scenarios as fractional contributors to the total set of observations, and can naturally account for model uncertainties. We apply this technique to investigate the origin of black hole mergers observed by LIGO Virgo. Specifically, we consider a model of AGN assisted black hole merger distributions, exploring a range of AGN parameters along with several {SEVN} population synthesis models that vary in common envelope efficiency parameter ($α$) and metallicity ($Z$). We estimate the posterior distributions for AGN+SEVN models using $87$ BBH detections from the $O1--O3$ observation runs. The inferred total merger rate is $46.2 {Gpc}^{-3} {yr}^{-1}$, with the AGN sub-population contributing $21.2{Gpc}^{-3}{yr}^{-1}$ and the SEVN sub-population contributing $25.0 {Gpc}^{-3} {yr}^{-1}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Galactic forcing increases origination of marine microplankton

The continuous flux of Galactic cosmic rays that bombard Earth's atmosphere creates ionizing radiation that can damage the DNA of living organisms. While this radiation on Earth is relatively constant in the short term, large and long-scale fluctuations are expected with a period of $\sim 63.5$ million years. As the Solar System moves above or below the Galactic plane during its oscillatory motion about the Galactic center, the Galactic magnetic shielding weakens, allowing more cosmic rays to reach Earth and trigger mutations in organisms. We identify a significant correlation (weighted global p-value: $1.25\times 10^{-4}$, or $3.72σ$) between the Solar System's Galactic oscillations and the origination of marine zoo- and phyto-microplankton genera over the Phanerozoic. When we restrict the analysis to time intervals during which all four groups coexisted, a post-trial significance of $4.52σ$ emerges. Our findings suggest that changes in biodiversity have been significantly influenced by long-term Galactic forcing.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Inferring additional physics through unmodelled signal reconstructions

Parameter estimation of gravitational wave data is often computationally expensive, requiring simplifying assumptions such as circularisation of binary orbits. Although, if included, the sub-dominant effects like orbital eccentricity may provide crucial insights into the formation channels of compact binary mergers. To address these challenges, we present a pipeline strategy leveraging minimally modelled waveform reconstruction to identify the presence of eccentricity in real time. Using injected signals, we demonstrate that ignoring eccentricity ($e_{\rm 20Hz} \gtrsim 0.1$) leads to significant biases in parameter recovery, including chirp mass estimates falling outside the 90% credible interval. Waveform reconstruction shows inconsistencies increase with eccentricity, and this behaviour is consistent for different mass ratios. Our method enables low-latency inferences of binary properties supporting targeted follow-up analyses and can be applied to identify any physical effect of measurable strength.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

The promise of deep-stacking for neutrino astronomy

The detection of high-energy astrophysical neutrinos by IceCube has opened new windows for neutrino astronomy, but their sources remains largely unresolved. We study a methodology to address this - deep-stacking - that exploits correlations between observed neutrinos and comprehensive catalogs of potential source populations, including faint, high-redshift sources. By stacking signals from numerous weak sources and optimizing source weighting, significant gains in sensitivity can be achieved, particularly in the low-background regime where individual high-energy neutrinos dominate. We provide a semi-analytic framework to estimate sensitivity improvements for populations of sources under various background scenarios and redshift evolutions. Our analysis demonstrates that deep-stacking can increase detection sensitivity by a factor of 3 to 5, enabling detailed population studies. Furthermore, we discuss the potential to resolve the diffuse neutrino flux and investigate the redshift evolution of source populations. This approach offers a direct path toward identifying the primary sites of cosmic-ray acceleration and the mechanisms responsible for high-energy neutrino production.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Possible correlation between unabsorbed hard X-rays and neutrinos in radio-loud and radio-quiet AGN

The first high-energy neutrino source identified by IceCube was a blazar -- an active galactic nucleus driving a relativistic jet towards Earth. Jets driven by accreting black holes are commonly assumed to be needed for high-energy neutrino production. Recently, IceCube discovered neutrinos from Seyfert galaxies, which appears unrelated to jet activity. Here, we show that the observed luminosity ratios of neutrinos and hard X-rays from blazars TXS 0506+056 and GB6 J1542+6129 are consistent with neutrino production in a $γ$-obscured region near a central supermassive black hole, with the X-ray flux corresponding to reprocessed $γ$-ray emission with flux comparable to that of neutrinos. Similar neutrino - hard X-ray flux ratios are found for four Seyfert galaxies, NGC 1068, NGC 4151, CGCG 420-015 and NGC 3079, raising the possibility of a common neutrino production mechanism that may not involve a strong jet.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Gravitational Waves Detected by a Burst Search in LIGO/Virgo's Third Observing Run

Burst searches identify gravitational-wave (GW) signals in the detector data without use of a specific signal model, unlike the matched-filter searches that correlate data with simulated signal waveforms (templates). While matched filters are optimal for detection of known signals in the Gaussian noise, the burst searches can be more efficient in finding unusual events not covered by templates or those affected by non-Gaussian noise artifacts. Here, we report the detection of 3 gravitational wave signals that are uncovered by a burst search Coherent WaveBurst (cWB) optimized for the detection of binary black hole (BBH) mergers. They were found in the data from the LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3) with a combined significance of 3.6 $σ$. Each event appears to be a BBH merger not previously reported by the LIGO/Virgo's matched-filter searches. The most significant event has a reconstructed primary component in the upper mass gap ($m_1 = 70^{+36}_{-18}\,$M$_\odot$), and unusually low mass ratio ($m_2/m_1\sim0.3$), implying a dynamical or AGN origin. The 3 new events are consistent with the expected number of cWB-only detections in the O3 run ($4.8 \pm 2.1$), and belong to the stellar-mass binary population with the total masses in the $70-100$ M$_\odot$ range.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Gravitational Wave Detector Sensitivity to Eccentric Black Hole Mergers

Orbital eccentricity in compact binary mergers carries crucial information about the binary's formation and environment. There are emerging signs that some of the mergers detected by the LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors could indeed be eccentric. Nevertheless, the identification of eccentricity via gravitational waves remains challenging, to a large extent because of the limited availability of eccentric gravitational waveforms. While multiple suites of eccentric waveforms have recently been developed, they each cover only a part of the binary parameter space. Here we evaluate the sensitivity of LIGO to eccentric waveforms from the SXS and RIT numerical relativity catalogs and the TEOBResumS-Dali waveform model using data from LIGO-Virgo-Kagra's third observing run. The obtained sensitivities, as functions of eccentricity, mass and mass ratio, are important inputs to understanding detection prospects and observational population constrains. In addition, our results enable the comparison of the waveforms to establish their compatibility and applicability for searches and parameter estimation.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

An Optically Targeted Search for Gravitational Waves emitted by Core-Collapse Supernovae during the Third Observing Run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo

We present the results from a search for gravitational-wave transients associated with core-collapse supernovae observed optically within 30 Mpc during the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. No gravitational wave associated with a core-collapse supernova has been identified. We then report the detection efficiency for a variety of possible gravitational-wave emissions. For neutrino-driven explosions, the distance at which we reach 50% detection efficiency is up to 8.9 kpc, while more energetic magnetorotationally-driven explosions are detectable at larger distances. The distance reaches for selected models of the black hole formation, and quantum chromodynamics phase transition are also provided. We then constrain the core-collapse supernova engine across a wide frequency range from 50 Hz to 2 kHz. The upper limits on gravitational-wave energy and luminosity emission are at low frequencies down to $10^{-4}\,M_\odot c^2$ and $6 \times 10^{-4}\,M_\odot c^2$/s, respectively. The upper limits on the proto-neutron star ellipticity are down to 3 at high frequencies. Finally, by combining the results obtained with the data from the first and second observing runs of LIGO and Virgo, we improve the constraints of the parameter spaces of the extreme emission models. Specifically, the proto-neutron star ellipticities for the long-lasting bar mode model are down to 1 for long emission (1 s) at high frequency.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Determining the Hubble Constant with AGN-assisted Black Hole Mergers

Gravitational waves from neutron star mergers have long been considered a promising way to measure the Hubble constant, $H_0$, which describes the local expansion rate of the universe. While black hole mergers are more abundantly observed, their expected lack of electromagnetic emission and poor gravitational-wave localization make them less well suited for measuring $H_0$. Black hole mergers within the disks of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) could be an exception. Accretion from the AGN disk may produce an electromagnetic signal, pointing observers to the host galaxy. Alternatively, the low number density of AGNs could help identify the host galaxy of $1-5\%$ of mergers. Here we show that black hole mergers in AGN disks may be a sensitive way to determine $H_0$ with gravitational waves. If $1\%$ ($10\%$) of LIGO's observations occur in AGN disks with identified host galaxies, we could measure $H_0$ with $12\%$ ($4\%$) uncertainty in five years, possibly comparable to the sensitivity of neutron star mergers and set to considerably improve current gravitational wave measurements.

astro-ph.HE↗