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Indranil Banik

Publications and source records attributed to Indranil Banik.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

The tidal features of the classical Milky Way satellites: Expected in MOND but inconsistent with cold dark matter models

Most classical satellites of the Milky Way are known to display signs of tidal disturbance (e.g. tidal tails, substructures, and distorted shapes). This cannot be explained by the standard model of cosmology due to its prediction that the dark matter haloes of the classical satellites confer them with very strong self-gravity and make them resilient to the Milky Way's gravitational tides. In this work, we estimate the tidal susceptibility of the classical satellites by comparing their half-mass radius with their theoretical tidal radius at pericentre in both the standard model and in the Milgromian dynamics (MOND) model. With this approach, we demonstrate that most classical satellites are expected to be tidally perturbed in MOND, so their observed tidal features are generally in good agreement with MOND expectations. Since gravitational tides can also enhance the velocity dispersion of the satellites, we argue that MOND can plausibly explain the unusually high velocity dispersions reported for some of the classical satellites.

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The age of the Universe from a large sample of the oldest Galactic stars

We estimate the age of the Universe using the Xiang & Rix sample of 247,103 Milky Way stars with high-resolution spectroscopy from LAMOST DR7 and $Gaia$ eDR3 parallaxes. Stellar ages were estimated using YY isochrones up to 20 Gyr. To remove stars with unusually high and precise ages, we require old stars to be metal-poor and $\alpha$-enriched. We also require consistency between YY ages and those obtained with FLAME based only on $Gaia$ data. Our final sample of 155,600 stars within 5 kpc provides consistent cosmic age estimates using several techniques of increasing rigour. Our main results use an MCMC reconstruction of the latent age distribution, though our iterative reconstruction is very similar. Applying an innovative approach to our MCMC reconstruction and its uncertainties, we find that the oldest star has an age of $A_\star = 13.73^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ Gyr. Varying the quality cuts can at most reduce this to $A_\star = 13.31^{+0.21}_{-0.18}$ Gyr or raise it to $14.02^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$ Gyr using a much lower or higher age-dependent metallicity ceiling, respectively. Our inferred $A_\star$ is consistent with the 13.6 Gyr expected in CMB-calibrated $\Lambda$CDM, assuming the first long-lived stars formed when the Universe was 0.2 Gyr old. This agreement casts doubt on solutions to the Hubble tension solely through new physics prior to recombination, which generally imply a cosmic age of $12.9 \pm 0.2$ Gyr to match low redshift probes. It is difficult for stellar modelling uncertainties to reconcile such a low age with our result given the low metallicities of the oldest stars in our sample and independent asteroseismic constraints.

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Baryonic mass budgets in the central regions of the Bullet Cluster and their consistency with strong lensing in MOND

Strong lensing observations of the Bullet Cluster have traditionally been regarded as strong evidence for dark matter and a major challenge to Milgromian dynamics (MOND). The offset between the lensing mass and the X-ray gas centroids implies a substantial amount of unseen mass near the brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). However, the high metallicities observed in both the intracluster gas and the massive early-type member galaxies suggest a past stellar population dominated by massive stars, whose evolved remnants contribute additional baryonic mass. This effect is naturally incorporated in the integrated galaxy-wide initial mass function (IGIMF) theory, which predicts substantially larger baryonic masses than a canonical IMF. In this work, we re-estimate the baryonic masses of the three BCG-centred core regions of the Bullet Cluster using recent JWST photometry and compare them with MOND strong-lensing masses. We derive IGIMF masses using stellar population synthesis models with constant and (self-) enriched metallicities, representing lower and upper mass limits, respectively. We find that the MOND strong-lensing masses of all three cores lie within the range predicted by the IGIMF models. These results suggest that the baryonic mass budget is consistent with MOND requirements from strong-lensing observations in the core regions of the Bullet Cluster. However, the physical viability of this scenario also depends on the spatial distribution and dynamical behavior of the remnant population, which remain to be established. More generally, regardless of the validity of MOND, the results imply that less dark matter may be required than previously inferred.

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Constraints on the gravitational potential from DESI DR2 BAO and its implications for the local void scenario

We constrain the difference in gravitational potential between our location and sources at $z \gtrsim 0.3$ using datasets at those redshifts. Our motivation is that the Hubble tension might be caused by a local void, as suggested by galaxy number counts. This would increase the redshift through outflow and gravitational redshift (GR). Only the latter is important at high redshift, where a void contributes a fixed additional GR contribution of $z_0$ due to our location on a potential hill. This $z_0$ model has various subtle effects that were not previously considered, including a hotter CMB and reduced BAO scale $r_{\rm d}$. We test whether $z_0$ can have the previously expected value of 0.84%, which was based on fitting void parameters to galaxy number counts and local $H_0$ measurements. Combining BBN, CMB, BAO, and CC datasets at $z > 0.5$, we find that $z_0 = -0.4^{+0.8}_{-0.9}\%$, which rises to $-0.1 \pm 0.7\%$ when extending our analysis down to $z > 0.29$. Although the results prefer the standard value of $z_0 = 0$, the best-fitting model with $z_0 = 0.84\%$ fits the data almost as well as $\Lambda$CDM, with $\Delta \chi^2 < 2$. We find that $\Lambda$CDM faces a $3.07\sigma$ BAO anomaly in the standard $(H_0 r_{\rm d}, \Omega_{\rm m})$ parameter space, where different regions are preferred by BAO and non-BAO datasets from $z > 0.29$. Fixing $z_0 = 0.84\%$ reduces this to $2.79\sigma$. This suggests that a local void large enough to solve the Hubble tension cannot be ruled out by higher-redshift datasets despite its novel impacts on them.

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A Quality Framework for Testing Gravity with Wide Binaries: No Evidence for MOND

Wide binaries (WBs) offer a unique opportunity to test gravity in the low-acceleration regime, where modifications such as Milgromian dynamics (MOND) predict measurable deviations from Newtonian gravity. We construct a rigorous framework for conducting the wide binary test (WBT), emphasizing high quality sample selection, filtering of poor astrometric solutions, contamination mitigation, and uncertainty propagation. We show that undetected close binaries, chance alignments, and improper treatment of projection effects can mimic MOND-like signals. We introduce a checklist of best practices to identify and avoid these pitfalls. Applying this framework to Gaia DR3 data, we compile a high-purity sample of WBs within 130 pc with projected separations of 1 - 30 kAU, spanning the transition between the Newtonian and MOND regimes. We find that the scaled relative velocity distribution of wide binaries does not exhibit the 20% enhancement expected from MOND and is consistent with Newtonian gravity across all separations. A meta-analysis of previous WBTs shows that apparent MOND signals diminish as methodological rigour improves. We conclude that when stringent quality controls are applied, there is no observational evidence for MOND-induced velocity boosts in wide binaries. Our results place strong empirical constraints on modified gravity theories operating between a0/10 and 200 a0, where a0 is the MOND acceleration scale. Across this range of internal accelerations, Newtonian gravity is up to 1500x more likely than MOND for our cleanest sample.

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How does a MOND cosmology fare on Gpc scales? - Collisionless $N$-body simulations of $\nu$HDM

We present the largest collisionless $N$-body cosmological simulations in a MOdified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) cosmology to date. Our 4 simulations cover $\Lambda$CDM as a baseline, a MOND with hot dark matter model known as $\nu$HDM, and 2 unphysical models we call $\Lambda$HDM and $\nu$CDM to test the individual contributions of hot dark matter and MOND gravity, respectively. $\nu$HDM reproduces the CMB power spectrum whilst also theoretically matching cluster dynamics and preserving MOND predictions for galactic rotation curves. We test its viability on cosmological scales using simulations with $256^{3}$ particles in a box of size $800/h$ comoving Mpc. We find generically that the MOND models massively overproduce large-scale structures by $z=0$, with a most massive cluster in $\nu$HDM of $\approx 5 \times 10^{17} M_{\odot}/h$ and typical peculiar velocities of several thousand km/s. We also explore a local void solution to the Hubble tension in these models. Analogues to the observed "Local Hole'' do form in the MOND models, but values for the deceleration parameter $<-1.5$ in these regions prevent a satisfactory resolution to the Hubble tension. Whilst $\Lambda$CDM significantly underpredicts the observed bulk flow in Cosmicflows-4, the high peculiar velocities that arise in the MOND models create the opposite problem, ruling out $\nu$HDM at $>5\sigma$ confidence. Observations clearly require a much milder enhancement to the rate of structure growth in $\Lambda$CDM than is provided by the $\nu$HDM paradigm. Our results also suggest that replacing cold dark matter with hot dark matter is unlikely to provide a viable cosmological model, regardless of the gravity law.

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The local void model for the Hubble and BAO tensions

The inconsistency between the locally inferred Hubble constant and the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background assuming the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model has persisted, turning into an important problem. An emergent underlying trend is that this Hubble tension is driven by data confined to the very low-redshift Universe (typically $z < 0.15$). Most intermediate-redshift measurements remain mutually consistent with $H_0^\mathrm{CMB}$, the $\Lambda$CDM expectation anchored by the CMB. This Perspective examines if a large local void can explain the Hubble tension and its appearance only at low $z$. For an observer residing within a large underdensity, such as the Milky Way inside the claimed KBC void, gravitationally induced outflows and redshift can inflate the locally inferred recession scale $cz'$ despite having $H_0 = H_0^\mathrm{CMB}$. We summarise evidence suggestive of a local underdensity from multi-wavelength galaxy number counts, discuss the dynamical requirements implied by the amplitude of inferred bulk flows, and connect the solution to the emerging low-redshift BAO distance anomaly ($\alpha_{\mathrm{iso}} < 1$). Previously published semi-analytic void models anticipated the observed redshift dependence of BAO deviations and predict a rapid convergence to CMB-consistent expansion for $z \gtrsim 0.2$, aligning with reconstructions of $H_0(z)$ from BAO plus uncalibrated Type Ia supernovae. We conclude by looking to future tests, including improved mapping of the local density and velocity field, fits to galaxy distance catalogues at the field level, kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich constraints on coherent outflows, fast radio bursts, and the long-term prospect of redshift drift measurements as a direct probe of time-varying non-cosmological redshift contributions.

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The subtle statistics of the distance ladder: On the distance prior and selection effects

Statistical methodology is rarely considered significant in distance-ladder studies or a potential contributor to the Hubble tension. We suggest it should be, highlighting two appreciable issues. First, astronomical distances are inferred latent parameters, requiring a prior. We show that the (often implicit) uniform priors on distance moduli common to Bayesian distance-ladder analyses bias distances low due to objects being uniformly distributed in volume, which biases the Hubble constant high. Frequentist $\chi^2$ methods are unbiased for volume- or redshift-limited samples only if the redshift uncertainty (including peculiar velocities) vanishes, though simulation-based calibration can correct the bias. Second, in a Bayesian framework, selection effects introduce additional posterior factors describing the probability of objects entering the sample under the model. These partly counteract the volume prior, depending on the nature of the selection. After detailed analytic and mock-based studies, we quantify the volume-prior effect in the CosmicFlows-4 and SH0ES samples. Both use frequentist methods, so the effect appears as a potential estimator bias rather than a missing prior. The implied Hubble constant shifts are significant but must not be applied na\"{\i}vely -- principled selection modelling is also required, as we investigate explicitly for CosmicFlows-4. Both effects should already be captured by the SH0ES pipeline's simulation-based bias corrections. Our work highlights the crucial need to model both distances and selection accurately, either directly in a Bayesian forward model, or via post-hoc simulation-based corrections with realistic source and selection distributions. Such modelling requires samples with known, homogeneous selection criteria, which future surveys should prioritise.

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Comparing measures of the Hubble and BAO tensions in $\Lambda$CDM and possible solutions in $f(Q)$ gravity

We test whether $f(Q)$ symmetric teleparallel gravity theories can solve the Hubble tension consistently with DESI DR2 BAO. We consider three $f(Q)$ functional forms: logarithmic, exponential, and hyperbolic tangent. We extend these models by allowing a cosmological constant, and compare to phenomenological models with a flexible exponential, hyperbolic secant, and polynomial decay addition to the standard $\Lambda$CDM $H(z)$. We test these models against DESI DR2 BAO, CMB ($Planck$ 2018 + SPT-3G + ACT DR6), local $H_0$, and Cosmic Chronometer data. The logarithmic and hyperbolic tangent $f(Q)$ models do not provide an adequate solution, but the exponential model does. Furthermore, it slightly reduces the $(\Omega_m, H_0 r_d)$ parameter space tension between CMB and BAO datasets to $2.56\sigma$, down from $2.65\sigma$ for $\Lambda$CDM. Although $\Lambda$CDM faces only $1.66\sigma$ tension in DESI data space, the $1\sigma$ higher tension in parameter space suggests a real anomaly. The models assisted by the cosmological constant perform slightly better still, at the cost of undermined theoretical motivation. They also perform poorly once local $H_0$ measurements are included. The phenomenological models fit all data reasonably well, yet the best-fitting models predict isotropically averaged BAO distances exceeding the DESI DR2 measurements at all redshifts. This highlights the difficulties of finding a theoretically motivated solution to the Hubble tension while remaining consistent with BAO data.

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Testing the local supervoid solution to the Hubble tension with direct distance tracers

Several observational studies suggest that the local few hundred Mpc around the Local Group are significantly underdense based on source number counts in redshift space across much of the electromagnetic spectrum, particularly in near-infrared galaxy counts. This ``Keenan--Barger--Cowie (KBC) void'', ``Local Hole'', or ``local supervoid'', would have significant ramifications for the Hubble tension by generating outflows that masquerade as an enhanced local expansion rate. We evaluate models for the KBC void capable of resolving the Hubble tension with a background Planck cosmology. We fit these models to direct distances from the Tully--Fisher catalogue of the CosmicFlows-4 compilation using a field-level forward model. Depending on the adopted void density profile, we find the derived velocity fields to prefer a void size of less than 70 Mpc, which is less than 10 per cent of the fiducial size found by Haslbauer et al. based on the KBC luminosity density data. The predicted local Hubble constant is $72.1^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$, $70.4^{+0.4}_{-0.4}$, or $70.2^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ km/s/Mpc for an initial underdensity profile that is exponential, Gaussian, or Maxwell-Boltzmann, respectively. The latter two ameliorate the Hubble tension to within $3\sigma$ of the 4-anchor distance ladder approach of Breuval et al. giving $73.2 \pm 0.9$ km/s/Mpc. The exponential profile does achieve consistency with this measurement at just over $1\sigma$, but it is disfavoured by the Bayesian evidence. The preferred models produce bulk flow curves that disagree with recent estimates from CosmicFlows-4, despite the void models being flexible enough to match such estimates.

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The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. [Abridged]

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Testing the local void hypothesis using baryon acoustic oscillation measurements over the last twenty years

A promising solution to the Hubble tension is a local void that is roughly 20% underdense out to 300 Mpc, as suggested by galaxy number counts in the near-infrared. Gravitationally driven outflows from this KBC void might inflate redshifts enough to solve the Hubble tension, a scenario explored in detail by Haslbauer et al. We obtain predictions for the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) observables in their best-fitting void models and in the homogeneous $Planck$ cosmology. We compare these models against our compilation of available BAO measurements from the past twenty years. We find that the quality and quantity of available measurements are best using the isotropically averaged distance $D_{\mathrm{V}}$. Taking its ratio with the expected value in the homogeneous model yields good agreement with unity at high redshift, but a discrepancy appears that systematically grows with decreasing redshift. Assuming independent uncertainties, the 42 considered $D_{\mathrm{V}}$ observations give a total $\chi^2$ of 75.7 for the void-free model, while the void models give only $47.3 - 51.2$ depending on the density profile. This represents a reduction in overall tension from $3.3\sigma$ without a void to $1.1\sigma - 1.4\sigma$ in the void models. The $\chi^2$ differences are smaller when considering measurements of the angular BAO scale or its redshift depth. The void-free model provides the worst fit in almost every case. Overall, our results suggest that recent evidence of BAO observables deviating from expectations in the homogeneous $Planck$ cosmology could indicate a local void, which was motivated by considerations unrelated to BAO data or the Hubble tension.

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The redshift dependence of the inferred $H_0$ in a local void solution to the Hubble tension

Galaxy number counts suggest that we are located within the Gpc-scale KBC void. The Hubble tension might arise due to gravitationally driven outflow from this void, as explored in detail by Haslbauer et al. We explore how the impact of the void on redshift decays at large distances. We define $H_0(z)$ as the present expansion rate $H_0$ that would be inferred from observations in a narrow redshift range centred on $z$. We find $H_0(z)$ in three different ways, all of which give similar results. We then compare these results with the observations of Jia et al., who were careful to minimise the impact of correlations between $H_0$ measurements from data in different redshift bins. We find reasonable agreement with their results for the Gaussian and Exponential void underdensity profiles, although the agreement is less good in the Maxwell-Boltzmann case. The latter profile causes severe disagreement with the observed bulk flow curve at $z < 0.1$ (Mazurenko et al.), so the tension with higher redshift data further highlights that the deepest part of the KBC void is probably near its centre. The observations show a decline of $H_0(z)$ towards the background $Planck$ value in qualitative agreement with the considered models, even if we use a larger void. The good overall agreement with the recent results of Jia et al. suggests that the local supervoid evident from the galaxy luminosity density out to a Gpc might also solve the Hubble tension while retaining a low background $H_0$ consistent with $Planck$ data, assuming enhanced structure formation on $>100$ Mpc scales.

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Challenges to a sharp change in $G$ as a solution to the Hubble tension

It has been proposed that the gravitational constant $G$ abruptly decreased around 130 Myr ago, making Type Ia supernovae (SNe) in the Hubble flow intrinsically brighter than those in host galaxies with Cepheid distances. This would make Hubble flow SNe more distant, causing redshifts to rise slower with distance, potentially solving the Hubble tension. We explore a wide range of unattractive consequences of this ``$G$ step model'' (GSM). We find that since the luminosities of Sun-like stars scale as approximately $G^{5.6}$, the Solar luminosity would have dropped substantially 130 Myr ago in this scenario, likely pushing Earth into a planetary glaciation. However, there was no Snowball Earth episode in the last 500 Myr. The GSM also implies that the length of a year would have abruptly increased by about 10%, but the number of days per year has evolved broadly continuously according to geochronometry and cyclostratigraphy. The GSM would considerably alter stellar evolution, causing the Sun to have exhausted about 2/3 of its fuel supply rather than 1/2. This would make the Sun's helioseismic age exceed that of the oldest meteorite samples, but these agree excellently in practice. The expected age of the Universe also agrees well with that of the oldest Galactic stars assuming constant $G$. The GSM however implies these stars are younger, creating a lack of stars from the first 3 Gyr of cosmic history. These arguments pose significant challenges to models seeking to resolve the Hubble tension through a transition in $G$.

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Constraints on the Hubble and matter density parameters with and without modelling the CMB anisotropies

We consider constraints on the Hubble parameter $H_0$ and the matter density parameter $\Omega_{\mathrm{M}}$ from: (i) the age of the Universe based on old stars and stellar populations in the Galactic disc and halo (Cimatti & Moresco 2023); (ii) the turnover scale in the matter power spectrum, which tells us the cosmological horizon at the epoch of matter-radiation equality (Philcox et al. 2022); and (iii) the shape of the expansion history from supernovae (SNe) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) with no absolute calibration of either, a technique known as uncalibrated cosmic standards (UCS; Lin, Chen, & Mack 2021). A narrow region is consistent with all three constraints just outside their $1\sigma$ uncertainties. Although this region is defined by techniques unrelated to the physics of recombination and the sound horizon then, the standard $Planck$ fit to the CMB anisotropies falls precisely in this region. This concordance argues against early-time explanations for the anomalously high local estimate of $H_0$ (the 'Hubble tension'), which can only be reconciled with the age constraint at an implausibly low $\Omega_{\mathrm{M}}$. We suggest instead that outflow from the local KBC supervoid (Keenan, Barger, & Cowie 2013) inflates redshifts in the nearby universe and thus the apparent local $H_0$. Given the difficulties with solutions in the early universe, we argue that the most promising alternative to a local void is a modification to the expansion history at late times, perhaps due to a changing dark energy density.

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The Magellanic Clouds are very rare in the IllustrisTNG simulations

The Large and Small Magellanic Cloud (LMC and SMC) form the closest interacting galactic system to the Milky Way, therewith providing a laboratory to test cosmological models in the local Universe. We quantify the likelihood for the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) to be observed within the $\Lambda$CDM model using hydrodynamical simulations of the IllustrisTNG project. The orbits of the MCs are constrained by proper motion measurements taken by the $Hubble~Space~Telescope$ and $Gaia$. The MCs have a mutual separation of $d_{\mathrm{MCs}}~=~24.5\,\mathrm{kpc}$ and a relative velocity of $v_{\mathrm{MCs}}~=~90.8\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$, implying a phase-space density of $f_{\mathrm{MCs,obs}}~\equiv~(d_{\mathrm{MCs}} \cdot v_{\mathrm{MCs}})^{-3}~=~9.10\times10^{-11}\,\mathrm{km^{-3}\,s^{3}\,kpc^{-3}}$. We select analogues to the MCs based on their stellar masses and distances in MW-like halos. None of the selected LMC analogues have a higher total mass and lower Galactocentric distance than the LMC, resulting in $>3.75\sigma$ tension. We also find that the $f_{\mathrm{MCs}}$ distribution in the highest resolution TNG50 simulation is in $3.95\sigma$ tension with observations. Thus, a hierarchical clustering of two massive satellites like the MCs in a narrow phase-space volume is unlikely in $\Lambda$CDM, presumably because of short merger timescales due to dynamical friction between the overlapping dark matter halos. We show that group infall led by an LMC analogue cannot populate the Galactic disc of satellites (DoS), implying that the DoS and the MCs formed in physically unrelated ways in $\Lambda$CDM. Since the $20^\circ$ alignment of the LMC and DoS orbital poles has a likelihood of $P=0.030$ ($2.17\sigma$), adding this $\chi^2$ to that of $f_{\mathrm{MCs}}$ gives a combined likelihood of $P = 3.90\times10^{-5}$ ($4.11\sigma$).

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Distinct radial acceleration relations of galaxies and galaxy clusters supports hyperconical modified gravity

General relativity (GR) is the most successful theory of gravity, with great observational support on local scales. However, to keep GR valid over cosmic scales, some phenomena (such as flat galaxy rotation curves and the cosmic expansion history) require the assumption of exotic dark matter. The radial acceleration relation (RAR) indicates a tight correlation between dynamical mass and baryonic mass in galaxies. This suggests that the observations could be better explained by modified gravity theories without exotic matter. Modified Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) is an alternative theory that was originally designed to explain flat galaxy rotation curves by using a new fundamental constant acceleration $a_0$, the so-called Milgromian parameter. However, this non-relativistic model is too rigid (with insufficient parameters) to fit the large diversity of observational phenomena. In contrast, a relativistic MOND-like gravity naturally emerges from the hyperconical model, which derives a fictitious acceleration compatible with observations. This study analyses the compatibility of the hyperconical model with respect to distinct RAR observations of 10 galaxy clusters obtained from HIFLUGCS and 60 high-quality SPARC galaxy rotation curves. The results show that a general relation can be fitted to most cases with only one or two parameters, with an acceptable $\chi^2$ and $p$-value. These findings suggest a possible way to complete the proposed modification of GR on cosmic scales.

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A simultaneous solution to the Hubble tension and observed bulk flow within 250 ${h^{-1}}$ Mpc

The $\Lambda$ cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) standard cosmological model is in severe tension with several cosmological observations. Foremost is the Hubble tension, which exceeds $5\sigma$ confidence. Galaxy number counts show the Keenan-Barger-Cowie (KBC) supervoid, a significant underdensity out to 300~Mpc that cannot be reconciled with $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Haslbauer et al. previously showed that a high local Hubble constant arises naturally due to gravitationally driven outflows from the observed KBC supervoid. The main prediction of this model is that peculiar velocities are typically much larger than expected in the $\Lambda$CDM framework. This agrees with the recent discovery by Watkins et al. that galaxies in the CosmicFlows-4 catalogue have significantly faster bulk flows than expected in the $\Lambda$CDM model on scales of $100-250 \, h^{-1}$~Mpc. The rising bulk flow curve is unexpected in standard cosmology, causing $4.8\sigma$ tension at $200 \, h^{-1}$~Mpc. In this work, we determine what the semi-analytic void model of Haslbauer et al. predicts for the bulk flows on these scales. We find qualitative agreement with the observations, especially if our vantage point is chosen to match the observed bulk flow on a scale of $50 \, h^{-1}$~Mpc. This represents a highly non-trivial success of a previously published model that was not constrained by bulk flow measurements, but which was shown to solve the Hubble tension and explain the KBC void consistently with the peculiar velocity of the Local Group. Our results suggest that several cosmological tensions can be simultaneously resolved if structure grows more efficiently than in the $\Lambda$CDM paradigm on scales of tens to hundreds of Mpc.

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