arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Ingo Piepers.
The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisational innovations are periodically introduced, contributing to a process of social expansion and integration, and to wealth creation. A finite-time singularity accompanied by four accelerating log-periodic cycles can be identified during the time frame 1495-1945.
A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and development of the International System during the period 1495 - 1945. The identification of this singularity provides us with a perspective to penetrate and decode the dynamics of the International System. Various regularities in the dynamics of the International System can be identified. These regularities are remarkably consistent, and can be attributed to the connectivity and the growth of connectivity of the International System.
The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics of the International System. Each cycle began and ended with a systemic war. During their life span, these cycles show remarkable regularities in their dynamics. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the regulatory network of the International System, in combination with its anarchistic structure, produce and shape the war dynamics of the system. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the International System is fed by population growth and the need for social systems to fulfill basic requirements. The finite-time singularity and accompanying log-periodic oscillations were instrumental in the periodic reorganization of the regulatory network of the International System and contributed to a long-term process of social expansion and integration in Europe. The singularity dynamic produced a series of organizational innovations. At the critical time of the singularity (1939), the connectivity of the system reached a critical threshold and resulted in a critical transition that led to a fundamental reorganization of the International System. Europe transformed from an anarchistic system to a cooperative security community. During the life span of the cycles, the war dynamics showed chaotic characteristics. These findings have implications for the social sciences and historical research.
The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the system's conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the International System. Initially, following a systemic war, the increase of the level of criticality and sensitivity go hand in hand. However, at a certain stage the sensitivity of the International System for larger sized wars decreases; as a consequence of a network effect, we argue. This network effect results in increased local stability of the System. During this phase the criticality of the International System steadily increases, resulting in a release deficit. This release deficit facilitates a necessary build up of energy to push the International System, by means of systemic war, into a new stability domain. Systemic war is functional in the periodic rebalancing of an anarchistic international system.
The process of social expansion in Europe can be better understood with various concepts related to complexity science. Findings of exploratory research show a typical process of social expansion in Europe within the period 1495-1945, in which wars have been instrumental. Furthermore, this research enables the identification of vulnerabilities, and conditions for success in a process of social expansion.
Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the help of a complexity science perspective. The perspective discussed in this article is based on various complexity science concepts and theories, and concepts related to ecology and ecosystems. It can be argued that the Great Power war dynamics of the international system in Europe during the period 1480-1945, showed self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics, resulting in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. It seems that the SOC-characteristics of the international system and the punctuated equilibrium dynamic were - in combination with chaotic war dynamics - functional in a process of social expansion in Europe. According to a model presented in this article, population growth was a component of the driving force of the international system during this time frame. The findings of this exploratory research project contradict with generally held opinions in International Relations theory.
The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to the international system as well. In this paper I argue that the normal chaotic war dynamic of the European international system (1495-1945) was temporarily (1657-1763) interrupted by a more simplified dynamic, resulting in more intense Great Power wars and in a delay of the reorganization of the international system in the 18th century.
From the perspective developed in this paper, it can be argued that exponential population growth resulted in the exponential decrease of the life-span of consecutive stable periods during the life-span of the European international system (1480-1945). However, it becomes evident as well that population growth as such is not a sufficient condition to generate a punctuated equilibrium dynamic in the war dynamics of the international system: other conditions and factors - and their interplay - contribute to this typical dynamic as well. From 1945 until the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991), the conditions of international system differed fundamentally from the conditions of the European international system during the period 1480-1945. It can be argued, that sooner or later a punctuated equilibrium war dynamic will resume.
Social systems must fulfil four basic functions to ensure their survival in competitive conditions. Social systems must provide for: (1) energy and other necessities of life, (2) security against external and internal threats, (3) identity and self-development, and (4) consistency and direction. These functions result in four more or less autonomous aspect systems; these aspect systems interact. Between the variables of basic functions and variables of aspect systems, a minimal level of consistency is required to facilitate growth and development, and to ensure the (future) survivability of the social system. Sooner or later, growth, change, and differentiated development result in inconsistencies within/between basic functions and aspect systems. These inconsistencies affect the effectiveness and efficiency of these social systems to provide for the basic functions. Periodically, deliberate or spontaneous corrective adjustments of social systems are required, to correct for these inconsistencies.
In this paper I propose a 'mechanism' for the explanation of power-law characteristics of casualty dynamics in inter-state wars, intra-state wars and terrorist attacks: the scale-free physical organization of social systems. Other explanations - self-organized criticality (Cederman, 2003) and the redistribution of total attack capabilities (Johnson et al. 2006) - do not provide a consistent framework for the power-law characteristics of casualty dynamics. The development in time of the power-law characteristics of casualty dynamics during wars and conflicts provides clues for the 'functioning' of social systems which are targeted, and/or for the (in)effectiveness and strategies of actors using force (violence) against these social systems.
In this article I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the international system toward a condition of increased stability and reduced resilience can be observed. In addition to SOC characteristics, the international system exhibits characteristics of a chaotic system. Chaos, order and development are closely linked. The SOC dynamics generate a process of social expansion. It is possible to explain the social integration of Europe from this perspective.