arXiv subjects

Ioannis Anagnostides

Publications and source records attributed to Ioannis Anagnostides.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Complexity of Proper Equilibrium in Extensive-Form and Polytope Games

The proper equilibrium, introduced by Myerson (1978), is a classic refinement of the Nash equilibrium that has been referred to as the "mother of all refinements." For normal-form games, computing a proper equilibrium is known to be PPAD-complete for two-player games and FIXP$_a$-complete for games with at least three players. However, the complexity beyond normal-form games -- in particular, for extensive-form games (EFGs) -- was a long-standing open problem first highlighted by Miltersen and Sørensen (SODA '08). In this paper, we resolve this problem by establishing PPAD- and FIXP$_a$-membership (and hence completeness) of normal-form proper equilibria in two-player and multi-player EFGs respectively. Our main ingredient is a technique for computing a perturbed (proper) best response that can be computed efficiently in EFGs. This is despite the fact that, as we show, computing a best response using the classic perturbation of Kohlberg and Mertens based on the permutahedron is #P-hard even in Bayesian games. In stark contrast, we show that computing a proper equilibrium in polytope games is NP-hard. This marks the first natural class in which the complexity of computing equilibrium refinements does not collapse to that of Nash equilibria, and the first problem in which equilibrium computation in polytope games is strictly harder -- unless there is a collapse in the complexity hierarchy -- relative to extensive-form games.

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arXiv2026

Learning Potentials for Dynamic Matching and Application to Heart Transplantation

Each year, thousands of patients in need of heart transplants face life-threatening wait times due to organ scarcity. While allocation policies aim to maximize population-level outcomes, current approaches often fail to account for the dynamic arrival of organs and the composition of waitlisted candidates, thereby hampering efficiency. The United States is transitioning from rigid, rule-based allocation to more flexible data-driven models. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for non-myopic policy optimization in general online matching relying on potentials, a concept originally introduced for kidney exchange. We develop scalable and accurate ways of learning potentials that are higher-dimensional and more expressive than prior approaches. Our approach is a form of self-supervised imitation learning: the potentials are trained to mimic an omniscient algorithm that has perfect foresight. We focus on the application of heart transplant allocation and demonstrate, using real historical data, that our policies significantly outperform prior approaches -- including the current US status quo policy and the proposed continuous distribution framework -- in optimizing for population-level outcomes. Our analysis and methods come at a pivotal moment in US policy, as the current heart transplant allocation system is under review. We propose a scalable and theoretically grounded path toward more effective organ allocation.

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arXiv2026

Tight Inapproximability for Welfare-Maximizing Autobidding Equilibria

We examine the complexity of computing welfare- and revenue-maximizing equilibria in autobidding second-price auctions subject to return-on-spend (RoS) constraints. We show that computing an autobidding equilibrium that approximates the welfare-optimal one within a factor of $2 - ε$ is NP-hard for any constant $ε> 0$. Moreover, deciding whether there exists an autobidding equilibrium that attains a $1/2 + ε$ fraction of the optimal welfare -- unfettered by equilibrium constraints -- is NP-hard for any constant $ε> 0$. This hardness result is tight in view of the fact that the price of anarchy (PoA) is at most $2$, and shows that deciding whether a non-trivial autobidding equilibrium exists -- one that is even marginally better than the worst-case guarantee -- is intractable. For revenue, we establish a stronger logarithmic inapproximability, while under the projection games conjecture, our reduction rules out even a polynomial approximation factor. These results significantly strengthen the APX-hardness of Li and Tang (AAAI '24). Furthermore, we refine our reduction in the presence of ML advice concerning the buyers' valuations, revealing again a close connection between the inapproximability threshold and PoA bounds. Finally, we examine relaxed notions of equilibrium attained by simple learning algorithms, establishing constant inapproximability for both revenue and welfare.

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arXiv2026

Chaos in Autobidding Auctions

As autobidding systems increasingly dominate online advertising auctions, characterizing their long-term dynamical behavior is brought to the fore. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of autobidders who optimize value subject to a return-on-spend (RoS) constraint under uniform bid scaling. Our main set of results show that simple autobidding dynamics can exhibit formally chaotic behavior. This significantly strengthens the recent results of Leme, Piliouras, Schneider, Spendlove, and Zuo (EC '24) that went as far as quasiperiodicity. Our proof proceeds by establishing that autobidding dynamics can simulate -- up to an arbitrarily small error -- a broad class of continuous-time nonlinear dynamical systems. This class contains as a special case Chua's circuit, a classic chaotic system renowned for its iconic double scroll attractor. Our reduction develops several modular gadgets, which we anticipate will find other applications going forward. Moreover, in discrete time, we show that different incarnations of mirror descent can exhibit Li-Yorke chaos, topological transitivity, and sensitivity to initial conditions, connecting along the way those dynamics to classic dynamical systems such as the logistic map and the Ricker population model. Taken together, our results reveal that the long-term behavior of ostensibly simple second-price autobidding auctions can be inherently unpredictable and complex.

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arXiv2026

Near-Optimal Dynamic Matching via Coarsening with Application to Heart Transplantation

Online matching has been a mainstay in domains such as Internet advertising and organ allocation, but practical algorithms often lack strong theoretical guarantees. We take an important step toward addressing this by developing new online matching algorithms based on a coarsening approach. Although coarsening typically implies a loss of granularity, we show that, to the contrary, aggregating offline nodes into capacitated clusters can yield near-optimal theoretical guarantees. We apply our methodology to heart transplant allocation to develop theoretically grounded policies based on structural properties of historical data. Furthermore, in simulations based on real data, our policy closely matches the performance of the omniscient benchmark, achieving competitive ratio 0.91, drastically higher than the US status quo policy's 0.51. Our work bridges the gap between data-driven heuristics and pessimistic theoretical lower bounds.

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arXiv2026

(Doubly) Exponential Lower Bounds for Follow the Regularized Leader in Potential Games

Follow the regularized leader FTRL is the premier algorithm for online optimization. However, despite decades of research on its convergence in constrained optimization -- and potential games in particular -- its behavior remained hitherto poorly understood. In this paper, we establish that FTRL can take exponential time to converge to a Nash equilibrium in two-player potential games for any (permutation-invariant) regularizer and potentially vanishing learning rate. By known equivalences, this translates to an exponential lower bound for certain mirror descent counterparts, most notably multiplicative weights update. On the positive side, we establish the potential property for FTRL and obtain an exponential upper bound $\exp(O_ε(1/ε^2))$ for any no-regret dynamics executed in a lazy, alternating fashion, matching our lower bound up to factors in the exponent. Finally, in multi-player potential games, we show that fictitious play -- the extreme version of FTRL -- can take doubly exponential time to reach a Nash equilibrium. This constitutes an exponentially stronger lower bound for the foundational learning algorithm in games.

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arXiv2026

On the Computational Complexity of Performative Prediction

Performative prediction captures the phenomenon where deploying a predictive model shifts the underlying data distribution. While simple retraining dynamics are known to converge linearly when the performative effects are weak ($ρ< 1$), the complexity in the regime $ρ> 1$ was hitherto open. In this paper, we establish a sharp phase transition: computing an $ε$-performatively stable point is PPAD-complete -- and thus polynomial-time equivalent to Nash equilibria in general-sum games -- even when $ρ= 1 + O(ε)$. This intractability persists even in the ostensibly simple setting with a quadratic loss function and linear distribution shifts. One of our key technical contributions is to extend this PPAD-hardness result to general convex domains, which is of broader interest in the complexity of variational inequalities. Finally, we address the special case of strategic classification, showing that computing a strategic local optimum is PLS-hard.

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arXiv2025

Learning and Computation of $Φ$-Equilibria at the Frontier of Tractability

$Φ$-equilibria -- and the associated notion of $Φ$-regret -- are a powerful and flexible framework at the heart of online learning and game theory, whereby enriching the set of deviations $Φ$ begets stronger notions of rationality. Recently, Daskalakis, Farina, Fishelson, Pipis, and Schneider (STOC '24) -- abbreviated as DFFPS -- settled the existence of efficient algorithms when $Φ$ contains only linear maps under a general, $d$-dimensional convex constraint set $\mathcal{X}$. In this paper, we significantly extend their work by resolving the case where $Φ$ is $k$-dimensional; degree-$\ell$ polynomials constitute a canonical such example with $k = d^{O(\ell)}$. In particular, positing only oracle access to $\mathcal{X}$, we obtain two main positive results: i) a $\text{poly}(n, d, k, \text{log}(1/ε))$-time algorithm for computing $ε$-approximate $Φ$-equilibria in $n$-player multilinear games, and ii) an efficient online algorithm that incurs average $Φ$-regret at most $ε$ using $\text{poly}(d, k)/ε^2$ rounds. We also show nearly matching lower bounds in the online learning setting, thereby obtaining for the first time a family of deviations that captures the learnability of $Φ$-regret. From a technical standpoint, we extend the framework of DFFPS from linear maps to the more challenging case of maps with polynomial dimension. At the heart of our approach is a polynomial-time algorithm for computing an expected fixed point of any $ϕ: \mathcal{X} \to \mathcal{X}$ based on the ellipsoid against hope (EAH) algorithm of Papadimitriou and Roughgarden (JACM '08). In particular, our algorithm for computing $Φ$-equilibria is based on executing EAH in a nested fashion -- each step of EAH itself being implemented by invoking a separate call to EAH.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Policy Optimization for Dynamic Heart Transplant Allocation

Heart transplantation is a viable path for patients suffering from advanced heart failure, but this lifesaving option is severely limited due to donor shortage. Although the current allocation policy was recently revised in 2018, a major concern is that it does not adequately take into account pretransplant and post-transplant mortality. In this paper, we take an important step toward addressing these deficiencies. To begin with, we use historical data from UNOS to develop a new simulator that enables us to evaluate and compare the performance of different policies. We then leverage our simulator to demonstrate that the status quo policy is considerably inferior to the myopic policy that matches incoming donors to the patient who maximizes the number of years gained by the transplant. Moreover, we develop improved policies that account for the dynamic nature of the allocation process through the use of potentials -- a measure of a patient's utility in future allocations that we introduce. We also show that batching together even a handful of donors -- which is a viable option for a certain type of donors -- further enhances performance. Our simulator also allows us to evaluate the effect of critical, and often unexplored, factors in the allocation, such as geographic proximity and the tendency to reject offers by the transplant centers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Convergence of Regret Matching in Potential Games and Constrained Optimization

Regret matching (RM) -- and its modern variants -- is a foundational online algorithm that has been at the heart of many AI breakthrough results in solving benchmark zero-sum games, such as poker. Yet, surprisingly little is known so far in theory about its convergence beyond two-player zero-sum games. For example, whether regret matching converges to Nash equilibria in potential games has been an open problem for two decades. Even beyond games, one could try to use RM variants for general constrained optimization problems. Recent empirical evidence suggests that they -- particularly regret matching$^+$ (RM$^+$) -- attain strong performance on benchmark constrained optimization problems, outperforming traditional gradient descent-type algorithms. We show that RM$^+$ converges to an $ε$-KKT point after $O_ε(1/ε^4)$ iterations, establishing for the first time that it is a sound and fast first-order optimizer. Our argument relates the KKT gap to the accumulated regret, two quantities that are entirely disparate in general but interact in an intriguing way in our setting, so much so that when regrets are bounded, our complexity bound improves all the way to $O_ε(1/ε^2)$. From a technical standpoint, while RM$^+$ does not have the usual one-step improvement property in general, we show that it does in a certain region that the algorithm will quickly reach and remain in thereafter. In sharp contrast, our second main result establishes a lower bound: RM, with or without alternation, can take an exponential number of iterations to reach a crude approximate solution even in two-player potential games. This represents the first worst-case separation between RM and RM$^+$. Our lower bound shows that convergence to coarse correlated equilibria in potential games is exponentially faster than convergence to Nash equilibria.

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arXiv2025

The Complexity of Symmetric Equilibria in Min-Max Optimization and Team Zero-Sum Games

We consider the problem of computing stationary points in min-max optimization, with a particular focus on the special case of computing Nash equilibria in (two-)team zero-sum games. We first show that computing $ε$-Nash equilibria in $3$-player \emph{adversarial} team games -- wherein a team of $2$ players competes against a \emph{single} adversary -- is \textsf{CLS}-complete, resolving the complexity of Nash equilibria in such settings. Our proof proceeds by reducing from \emph{symmetric} $ε$-Nash equilibria in \emph{symmetric}, identical-payoff, two-player games, by suitably leveraging the adversarial player so as to enforce symmetry -- without disturbing the structure of the game. In particular, the class of instances we construct comprises solely polymatrix games, thereby also settling a question left open by Hollender, Maystre, and Nagarajan (2024). We also provide some further results concerning equilibrium computation in adversarial team games. Moreover, we establish that computing \emph{symmetric} (first-order) equilibria in \emph{symmetric} min-max optimization is \textsf{PPAD}-complete, even for quadratic functions. Building on this reduction, we further show that computing symmetric $ε$-Nash equilibria in symmetric, $6$-player ($3$ vs. $3$) team zero-sum games is also \textsf{PPAD}-complete, even for $ε= \text{poly}(1/n)$. As an immediate corollary, this precludes the existence of symmetric dynamics -- which includes many of the algorithms considered in the literature -- converging to stationary points. Finally, we prove that computing a \emph{non-symmetric} $\text{poly}(1/n)$-equilibrium in symmetric min-max optimization is \textsf{FNP}-hard.

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arXiv2025

Algorithms and Complexity for Computing Nash Equilibria in Adversarial Team Games

Adversarial team games model multiplayer strategic interactions in which a team of identically-interested players is competing against an adversarial player in a zero-sum game. Such games capture many well-studied settings in game theory, such as congestion games, but go well-beyond to environments wherein the cooperation of one team -- in the absence of explicit communication -- is obstructed by competing entities; the latter setting remains poorly understood despite its numerous applications. Since the seminal work of Von Stengel and Koller (GEB `97), different solution concepts have received attention from an algorithmic standpoint. Yet, the complexity of the standard Nash equilibrium has remained open. In this paper, we settle this question by showing that computing a Nash equilibrium in adversarial team games belongs to the class continuous local search (CLS), thereby establishing CLS-completeness by virtue of the recent CLS-hardness result of Rubinstein and Babichenko (STOC `21) in potential games. To do so, we leverage linear programming duality to prove that any $ε$-approximate stationary strategy for the team can be extended in polynomial time to an $O(ε)$-approximate Nash equilibrium, where the $O(\cdot)$ notation suppresses polynomial factors in the description of the game. As a consequence, we show that the Moreau envelop of a suitable best response function acts as a potential under certain natural gradient-based dynamics.

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arXiv2025

Expected Variational Inequalities

Variational inequalities (VIs) encompass many fundamental problems in diverse areas ranging from engineering to economics and machine learning. However, their considerable expressivity comes at the cost of computational intractability. In this paper, we introduce and analyze a natural relaxation -- which we refer to as expected variational inequalities (EVIs) -- where the goal is to find a distribution that satisfies the VI constraint in expectation. By adapting recent techniques from game theory, we show that, unlike VIs, EVIs can be solved in polynomial time under general (nonmonotone) operators. EVIs capture the seminal notion of correlated equilibria, but enjoy a greater reach beyond games. We also employ our framework to capture and generalize several existing disparate results, including from settings such as smooth games, and games with coupled constraints or nonconcave utilities.

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arXiv2025

Efficient $Φ$-Regret Minimization with Low-Degree Swap Deviations in Extensive-Form Games

Recent breakthrough results by Dagan, Daskalakis, Fishelson and Golowich [2023] and Peng and Rubinstein [2023] established an efficient algorithm attaining at most $ε$ swap regret over extensive-form strategy spaces of dimension $N$ in $N^{\tilde O(1/ε)}$ rounds. On the other extreme, Farina and Pipis [2023] developed an efficient algorithm for minimizing the weaker notion of linear-swap regret in $\mathsf{poly}(N)/ε^2$ rounds. In this paper, we develop efficient parameterized algorithms for regimes between these two extremes. We introduce the set of $k$-mediator deviations, which generalize the untimed communication deviations recently introduced by Zhang, Farina and Sandholm [2024] to the case of having multiple mediators, and we develop algorithms for minimizing the regret with respect to this set of deviations in $N^{O(k)}/ε^2$ rounds. Moreover, by relating $k$-mediator deviations to low-degree polynomials, we show that regret minimization against degree-$k$ polynomial swap deviations is achievable in $N^{O(kd)^3}/ε^2$ rounds, where $d$ is the depth of the game, assuming a constant branching factor. For a fixed degree $k$, this is polynomial for Bayesian games and quasipolynomial more broadly when $d = \mathsf{polylog} N$ -- the usual balancedness assumption on the game tree.

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arXiv2025

On the Interplay between Social Welfare and Tractability of Equilibria

Computational tractability and social welfare (aka. efficiency) of equilibria are two fundamental but in general orthogonal considerations in algorithmic game theory. Nevertheless, we show that when (approximate) full efficiency can be guaranteed via a smoothness argument à la Roughgarden, Nash equilibria are approachable under a family of no-regret learning algorithms, thereby enabling fast and decentralized computation. We leverage this connection to obtain new convergence results in large games -- wherein the number of players $n \gg 1$ -- under the well-documented property of full efficiency via smoothness in the limit. Surprisingly, our framework unifies equilibrium computation in disparate classes of problems including games with vanishing strategic sensitivity and two-player zero-sum games, illuminating en route an immediate but overlooked equivalence between smoothness and a well-studied condition in the optimization literature known as the Minty property. Finally, we establish that a family of no-regret dynamics attains a welfare bound that improves over the smoothness framework while at the same time guaranteeing convergence to the set of coarse correlated equilibria. We show this by employing the clairvoyant mirror descent algortihm recently introduced by Piliouras et al.

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arXiv2024

The Value of Recall in Extensive-Form Games

Imperfect-recall games, in which players may forget previously acquired information, have found many practical applications, ranging from game abstractions to team games and testing AI agents. In this paper, we quantify the utility gain by endowing a player with perfect recall, which we call the value of recall (VoR). While VoR can be unbounded in general, we parameterize it in terms of various game properties, namely the structure of chance nodes and the degree of absentmindedness (the number of successive times a player enters the same information set). Further, we identify several pathologies that arise with VoR, and show how to circumvent them. We also study the complexity of computing VoR, and how to optimally apportion partial recall. Finally, we connect VoR to other previously studied concepts in game theory, including the price of anarchy. We use that connection in conjunction with the celebrated smoothness framework to characterize VoR in a broad class of games.

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arXiv2024

Barriers to Welfare Maximization with No-Regret Learning

A celebrated result in the interface of online learning and game theory guarantees that the repeated interaction of no-regret players leads to a coarse correlated equilibrium (CCE) -- a natural game-theoretic solution concept. Despite the rich history of this foundational problem and the tremendous interest it has received in recent years, a basic question still remains open: how many iterations are needed for no-regret players to approximate an equilibrium? In this paper, we establish the first computational lower bounds for that problem in two-player (general-sum) games under the constraint that the CCE reached approximates the optimal social welfare (or some other natural objective). From a technical standpoint, our approach revolves around proving lower bounds for computing a near-optimal $T$-sparse CCE -- a mixture of $T$ product distributions, thereby circumscribing the iteration complexity of no-regret learning even in the centralized model of computation. Our proof proceeds by extending a classical reduction of Gilboa and Zemel [1989] for optimal Nash to sparse (approximate) CCE. In particular, we show that the inapproximability of maximum clique precludes attaining any non-trivial sparsity in polynomial time. Moreover, we strengthen our hardness results to apply in the low-precision regime as well via the planted clique conjecture.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2024

Computational Lower Bounds for Regret Minimization in Normal-Form Games

A celebrated connection in the interface of online learning and game theory establishes that players minimizing swap regret converge to correlated equilibria (CE) -- a seminal game-theoretic solution concept. Despite the long history of this problem and the renewed interest it has received in recent years, a basic question remains open: how many iterations are needed to approximate an equilibrium under the usual normal-form representation? In this paper, we provide evidence that existing learning algorithms, such as multiplicative weights update, are close to optimal. In particular, we prove lower bounds for the problem of computing a CE that can be expressed as a uniform mixture of $T$ product distributions -- namely, a uniform $T$-sparse CE; such lower bounds immediately circumscribe (computationally bounded) regret minimization algorithms in games. Our results are obtained in the algorithmic framework put forward by Kothari and Mehta (STOC 2018) in the context of computing Nash equilibria, which consists of the sum-of-squares (SoS) relaxation in conjunction with oracle access to a verification oracle; the goal in that framework is to lower bound either the degree of the SoS relaxation or the number of queries to the verification oracle. Here, we obtain two such hardness results, precluding computing i) uniform $\text{log }n$-sparse CE when $ε=\text{poly}(1/\text{log }n)$ and ii) uniform $n^{1 - o(1)}$-sparse CE when $ε= \text{poly}(1/n)$.

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