Irina Epure | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

MARS: A framework for modelling register-based social networks

Register-based social networks have become of increasing interest in countries where formal government-curated microdata is available. Due to the non-trivial generative process of register-based networks, existing random graph models fail to facilitate effective structural analysis, hindering the discovery of meaningful insights in the underlying social system. In this paper we introduce the Multiplex Affiliation-based Random Spatially-embedded (MARS) graph framework, which replicates the construction method of register-based social networks. We derive fundamental statistical properties of MARS ensembles in general and special cases. To demonstrate the applicability of the framework, we implement a simple model under the MARS framework and show that it recovers similar properties to those exhibited by the population-scale register-based social network of the Netherlands. Furthermore, we analyse the effect of spatial tie strength on closure in the network and compare our results with existing empirical findings, showing that increased spatial freedom is correlated with decreased social cohesion.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

SimPol: Simulating polarisation in political belief networks in European countries

Here we combine empirical network analysis with agent-based modelling to understand how different ways of structuring belief systems may affect the polarisation drive, and how the diversity of belief systems in Europe may result in different polarisation trajectories. Using the 2016 European Social Survey, we infer belief networks across 23 European countries via a Bayesian algorithm, revealing that belief systems are predominantly organised around immigration, LGBT rights, and economic interventionism, reflecting the influence of populist discourse across the continent. We further verify a Western-Eastern divide across the national belief networks: in Western European countries, left-right self-identification is a more reliable predictor of broader belief alignment, whereas in Eastern Europe this relationship breaks down. By applying these empirical belief networks into a sociologically grounded agent-based model, we further show that polarisation is amplified by high individual belief rigidity and low susceptibility to social influence, and that cross-country differences in polarisation levels mirror the same geographic divide observed in belief network topology. These findings establish belief networks topologies as a structural driver of political polarisation, with implications for understanding and anticipating polarisation dynamics across diverse European contexts. We find that populations are not polarised when little attention is placed on maintaining internal coherence and polarisation levels are moderate when high attention is placed in both keeping internal coherence and agreement in beliefs with others.

physics.soc-ph↗