Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Irina Kitiashvili

Publications and source records attributed to Irina Kitiashvili.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

Developing Machine Learning Models of Subgrid Turbulent Transport for Quiet Sun 3D Radiative Hydrodynamic Simulations

Numerical modeling of solar plasma dynamics is affected by the resolution of the computational grid. This often requires the estimation of subgrid processes related to the small-scale flow turbulence, as these processes play a critical role in momentum transport and energy dissipation. In this work, we investigate the use of deep learning techniques as surrogate models for subgrid turbulent transport in realistic hydrodynamic simulations of the quiet Sun. We describe the development of a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to capture spatial dependencies in 3D velocity fields, leveraging different activation functions, as well as different architectural designs. We specifically focus on the prediction of Reynolds stress tensor components. The resultant model integrates velocity vector components and scalar features, such as plasma density, to enhance prediction accuracy. We compare the 3DCNN model to other types of models, such as a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and physics-based Gradient and Smagorinsky models, and show that the final model design reconstructs the Reynolds stress tensor components more accurately. Specifically, a 3DCNN model achieves an average improvement of ~31% on diagonal components and ~8% on the off-diagonal components of the stress tensor. Additionally, we show that applying a logarithmic data transformation of the target stress tensor components, to handle heavily skewed data, improves model performance. Results demonstrate the potential of deep learning, particularly CNNs, to approximate Reynolds stress tensor components for the upper solar convection zone and lower atmosphere, making them a viable candidate for modeling subgrid processes and a promising alternative to traditional turbulence models.

astro-ph.SR↗

Cluster-Weighted Training of Deep Surrogate Models for Subgrid Turbulent Transport

Turbulence in the solar interior and atmosphere plays a crucial role in energy transport, yet modeling its subgrid-scale effects remains a major challenge. This study leverages machine learning (ML) models to predict components of the Reynolds stress tensor using high-resolution StellarBox simulations of the quiet Sun. Previously, we have compared a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and a 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) against physics-based baselines to achieve a lower Mean Squared Error (MSE) and better generalization across various heights and depths in the solar atmosphere. To enhance learning, in this work, we investigate cluster-weighted training using K-Means and Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (HAC). By weighing the loss function based on cluster-specific prediction errors, we direct the model's attention to high-error regions. It significantly improves CNN performance, achieving 34% lower MSE and a significantly higher R2 score indicating that integrating deterministic clustering with ML is a promising technique for modeling subgrid turbulence, in particular, and regression in diverse environments, in general.

astro-ph.SR↗

Prediction of Magnetic Flux Evolution During Solar Active Region Emergence using Long Short-Term Memory Networks

Solar active regions (ARs) are the primary drivers of space weather events, making their early prediction crucial for operational forecasting systems. We develop machine learning models capable of predicting the evolution of magnetic flux during AR emergence using 1D time series of the continuum intensity and solar oscillation power maps for 53 active regions and their surrounding quiet-Sun areas. Each observable is sampled over a fixed 30.66°x30.66° field of view. These observations capture the temporal evolution of each active region and serve as inputs for training and validation of our MagFluxLSTM and MagFluxEnc-Dec models. The MagFluxLSTM architecture implements a single-stage standard Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network. MagFluxEnc-Dec represents an LSTM encoder-decoder with teacher forcing. To test and evaluate the models' performance, we use the continuum intensity and oscillation power maps (calculated for several frequency bands from Doppler velocity) as input to predict the magnetic flux. Among the top 100 hyperparameter configurations ranked by validation derivative RMSE, 98% correspond to MagFluxLSTM, compared to only 2% for MagFluxEnc-Dec. Thus, although the MagFluxEnc-Dec architecture has higher model complexity, it leads to poorer generalization to ARs outside the training set and less stable training than the simpler MagFluxLSTM, which can predict magnetic flux emergence 3-10 hours in advance within a 12-hour prediction window in both experimental and operational-type settings for the 5 testing active regions.

astro-ph.SR↗

Machine Learning-Ready Data Sets for the Analysis and Nowcasting of Atmospheric Radiation at Aviation Altitudes

Nowcasting and forecasting of the radiation environment in the Earth's lower atmosphere are critical for the safety of aircraft and spacecraft crews and passengers. Currently, this problem is addressed by employing statistical and physics-based models that take into account particle transport and precipitation. However, given the increased number of radiation measurements available to the community, it is possible to start developing data-driven approaches. We prepared Machine Learning-ready (ML-ready) datasets to nowcast the effective dose rates at aviation altitudes. The presented datasets contain 92,476 individual measurements from 589 flights obtained by the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) experiment from 2013 to 2023. The ARMAS measurements are augmented with the properties of the Geospace environment, such as solar soft X-ray and proton fluxes, solar wind properties, secondary cosmic ray neutrons, space weather indexes, and global solar activity indicators (such as daily sunspot number). ARMAS data are separated into three partitions, ensuring that (1) the data points from a single flight remain within the same partition, and (2) each partition samples the flight locations and Geospace environment conditions equally. Several versions of the datasets allow predictions based on point-in-time measurements and use up to 24 hours of Geospace parameter history. The test of the use case demonstrates a possibility of nowcasting ARMAS measurements with accuracies slightly better than the considered physics-based models. The publicly available ML-ready datasets could serve as the first step in data preparation for ML-driven nowcasting and forecasting of the radiation environment.

physics.ao-ph↗

Operational and Exploration Requirements and Research Capabilities for SEP Environment Monitoring and Forecasting

Mitigating risks posed by solar energetic particles (SEPs) to operations and exploration in space and Earth's atmosphere motivates the development of advanced, synergistic approaches for monitoring, modeling, and analyzing space weather conditions. The consequences of SEPs and their interactions with the near-Earth space environment are numerous, including elevated radiation levels at aviation altitudes during major events, satellite damage, and health risks to astronauts, resulting in economic impacts and potential hazards for space exploration. This contribution will present a high-level overview of the operational requirements and research capabilities for SEP event environment monitoring and forecasting that were highlighted during a workshop at Georgia State University, held on October 16-19, 2024. Specifically, it summarizes the presented activities concerning the following: (1) Identifying needs for SEP event forecasting and nowcasting, including practical forecast timeframes; (2) Reviewing availability and coverage of the current observational data and identifying tangible data resources for research, operations and the R2O2R loop; (3) Mapping existing forecast capabilities and identifying meaningful modeling advances for research and operations.

astro-ph.SR↗

Structure and Dynamics of the Sun's Interior Revealed by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager

High-resolution helioseismology observations with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provide a unique three-dimensional view of the solar interior structure and dynamics, revealing a tremendous complexity of the physical processes inside the Sun. We present an overview of the results of the HMI helioseismology program and discuss their implications for modern theoretical models and simulations of the solar interior.

astro-ph.SR↗

Improving Our Knowledge of the Solar Near-Surface Shear Layer: The Special Case of the Leptocline

The discovery of the solar activity cycle was linked from the outset to the observation of the temporal variability of sunspots, which we know to be the result of complex processes associated with the dynamics of inner layers. Numerous recent studies have highlighted changes in the Sun's Near-Surface Shear Layer (NSSL), pointing to the role of the leptocline, a shallow and sharp rotational shear layer in the top around 8 Mm. The leptocline, mainly characterized by a strong radial rotational gradient at middle latitudes and self-organized meridional flows, is the cradle of numerous phenomena: opacity, superadiabaticity, and turbulent pressure changes; the hydrogen and helium ionization processes; a sharp decrease in the sound speed; and, probably, variations of the seismic radius associated with a nonmonotonic expansion of subsurface layers with depth. In addition, the leptocline may play a key role in forming the magnetic butterfly diagram. Such results are a starting point for further systematic investigations of the structure and dynamics of this layer, which will lead to a better understanding of solar activity.

astro-ph.SR↗

Revisiting the Solar Research Cyberinfrastructure Needs: A White Paper of Findings and Recommendations

Solar and Heliosphere physics are areas of remarkable data-driven discoveries. Recent advances in high-cadence, high-resolution multiwavelength observations, growing amounts of data from realistic modeling, and operational needs for uninterrupted science-quality data coverage generate the demand for a solar metadata standardization and overall healthy data infrastructure. This white paper is prepared as an effort of the working group "Uniform Semantics and Syntax of Solar Observations and Events" created within the "Towards Integration of Heliophysics Data, Modeling, and Analysis Tools" EarthCube Research Coordination Network (@HDMIEC RCN), with primary objectives to discuss current advances and identify future needs for the solar research cyberinfrastructure. The white paper summarizes presentations and discussions held during the special working group session at the EarthCube Annual Meeting on June 19th, 2020, as well as community contribution gathered during a series of preceding workshops and subsequent RCN working group sessions. The authors provide examples of the current standing of the solar research cyberinfrastructure, and describe the problems related to current data handling approaches. The list of the top-level recommendations agreed by the authors of the current white paper is presented at the beginning of the paper.

astro-ph.IM↗

Prediction of Solar Proton Events with Machine Learning: Comparison with Operational Forecasts and "All-Clear" Perspectives

Solar Energetic Particle events (SEPs) are among the most dangerous transient phenomena of solar activity. As hazardous radiation, SEPs may affect the health of astronauts in outer space and adversely impact current and future space exploration. In this paper, we consider the problem of daily prediction of Solar Proton Events (SPEs) based on the characteristics of the magnetic fields in solar Active Regions (ARs), preceding soft X-ray and proton fluxes, and statistics of solar radio bursts. The machine learning (ML) algorithm uses an artificial neural network of custom architecture designed for whole-Sun input. The predictions of the ML model are compared with the SWPC NOAA operational forecasts of SPEs. Our preliminary results indicate that 1) for the AR-based predictions, it is necessary to take into account ARs at the western limb and on the far side of the Sun; 2) characteristics of the preceding proton flux represent the most valuable input for prediction; 3) daily median characteristics of ARs and the counts of type II, III, and IV radio bursts may be excluded from the forecast without performance loss; and 4) ML-based forecasts outperform SWPC NOAA forecasts in situations in which missing SPE events is very undesirable. The introduced approach indicates the possibility of developing robust "all-clear" SPE forecasts by employing machine learning methods.

astro-ph.SR↗

Machine Learning in Heliophysics and Space Weather Forecasting: A White Paper of Findings and Recommendations

The authors of this white paper met on 16-17 January 2020 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, for a 2-day workshop that brought together a group of heliophysicists, data providers, expert modelers, and computer/data scientists. Their objective was to discuss critical developments and prospects of the application of machine and/or deep learning techniques for data analysis, modeling and forecasting in Heliophysics, and to shape a strategy for further developments in the field. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks interleaved with a set of open discussion sessions. The outcome of the discussion is encapsulated in this white paper that also features a top-level list of recommendations agreed by participants.

astro-ph.SR↗

The Need for Laboratory Measurements and Ab Initio Studies to Aid Understanding of Exoplanetary Atmospheres

We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize their atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation, from gas giants to rocky planets. However, exoplanet atmospheric models capable of interpreting the upcoming observations are often limited by insufficiencies in the laboratory and theoretical data that serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools. Here we provide an up-to-date and condensed description of areas where laboratory and/or ab initio investigations could fill critical gaps in our ability to model exoplanet atmospheric opacities, clouds, and chemistry, building off a larger 2016 white paper, and endorsed by the NAS Exoplanet Science Strategy report. Now is the ideal time for progress in these areas, but this progress requires better access to, understanding of, and training in the production of spectroscopic data as well as a better insight into chemical reaction kinetics both thermal and radiation-induced at a broad range of temperatures. Given that most published efforts have emphasized relatively Earth-like conditions, we can expect significant and enlightening discoveries as emphasis moves to the exotic atmospheres of exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP↗

Stellar Characterization Necessary to Define Holistic Planetary Habitability

It is a truism within the exoplanet field that "to know the planet, you must know the star." This pertains to the physical properties of the star (i.e. mass, radius, luminosity, age, multiplicity), the activity and magnetic fields, as well as the stellar elemental abundances which can be used as a proxy for planetary composition. In this white paper, we discuss important stellar characteristics that require attention in upcoming ground- and space-based missions, such that their processes can be understood and either detangled from that of the planet, correlated with the presence of a planet, or utilized in lieu of direct planetary observations.

astro-ph.EP↗

New Frontiers for Terrestrial-sized to Neptune-sized Exoplanets In the Era of Extremely Large Telescopes

Surveys reveal that terrestrial- to Neptune-sized planets (1 $< R <$ 4 R$_{\rm{Earth}}$) are the most common type of planets in our galaxy. Detecting and characterizing such small planets around nearby stars holds the key to understanding the diversity of exoplanets and will ultimately address the ubiquitousness of life in the universe. The following fundamental questions will drive research in the next decade and beyond: (1) how common are terrestrial to Neptune-sized planets within a few AU of their host star, as a function of stellar mass? (2) How does planet composition depend on planet mass, orbital radius, and host star properties? (3) What are the energy budgets, atmospheric dynamics, and climates of the nearest worlds? Addressing these questions requires: a) diffraction-limited spatial resolution; b) stability and achievable contrast delivered by adaptive optics; and c) the light-gathering power of extremely large telescopes (ELTs), as well as multi-wavelength observations and all-sky coverage enabled by a comprehensive US ELT Program. Here we provide an overview of the challenge, and promise of success, in detecting and comprehensively characterizing small worlds around the very nearest stars to the Sun with ELTs. This white paper extends and complements the material presented in the findings and recommendations published in the National Academy reports on Exoplanet Science Strategy and Astrobiology Strategy for the Search for Life in the Universe.

astro-ph.EP↗

Constraining Stellar Photospheres as an Essential Step for Transmission Spectroscopy of Small Exoplanets

Transmission spectra probe the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets, but these observations are also subject to signals introduced by magnetic active regions on host stars. Here we outline scientific opportunities in the next decade for providing useful constraints on stellar photospheres and inform interpretations of transmission spectra of the smallest ($R<4\,R_{\odot}$) exoplanets. We identify and discuss four primary opportunities: (1) refining stellar magnetic active region properties through exoplanet crossing events; (2) spectral decomposition of active exoplanet host stars; (3) joint retrievals of stellar photospheric and planetary atmospheric properties with studies of transmission spectra; and (4) continued visual transmission spectroscopy studies to complement longer-wavelength studies from $\textit{JWST}$. We make five recommendations to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey Committee: (1) identify the transit light source (TLS) effect as a challenge to precise exoplanet transmission spectroscopy and an opportunity ripe for scientific advancement in the coming decade; (2) include characterization of host star photospheric heterogeneity as part of a comprehensive research strategy for studying transiting exoplanets; (3) support the construction of ground-based extremely large telescopes (ELTs); (4) support multi-disciplinary research teams that bring together the heliophysics, stellar physics, and exoplanet communities to further exploit transiting exoplanets as spatial probes of stellar photospheres; and (5) support visual transmission spectroscopy efforts as complements to longer-wavelength observational campaigns with $\textit{JWST}$.

astro-ph.SR↗

The Sun's Photospheric Convection Spectrum

Spectra of the cellular photospheric flows are determined from full-disk Doppler velocity observations acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft. Three different analysis methods are used to separately determine spectral coefficients representing the poloidal flows, the toroidal flows, and the radial flows. The amplitudes of these spectral coefficients are constrained by simulated data analyzed with the same procedures as the HMI data. We find that the total velocity spectrum rises smoothly to a peak at a wavenumber of about 120 (wavelength of about 35 Mm), which is typical of supergranules. The spectrum levels off out to wavenumbers of about 400, and then rises again to a peak at a wavenumber of about 3500 (wavelength of about 1200 km), which is typical of granules. The velocity spectrum is dominated by the poloidal flow component (horizontal flows with divergence but no curl) at wavenumbers above 30. The toroidal flow component (horizontal flows with curl but no divergence) dominates at wavenumbers less than 30. The radial flow velocity is only about 3\% of the total flow velocity at the lowest wavenumbers, but increases in strength to become about 50\% at wavenumbers near 4000. The spectrum compares well with the spectrum of giant cell flows at the lowest wavenumbers and with the spectrum of granulation from a 3D radiative-hydrodynamic simulation at the highest wavenumbers.

astro-ph.SR↗

Detection of Small-Scale Granular Structures in the Quiet Sun with the New Solar Telescope

Results of a statistical analysis of solar granulation are presented. A data set of 36 images of a quiet Sun area on the solar disk center was used. The data were obtained with the 1.6 m clear aperture New Solar Telescope (NST) at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) and with a broad-band filter centered at the TiO (705.7 nm) spectral line. The very high spatial resolution of the data (diffraction limit of 77 km and pixel scale of 0.$"$0375) augmented by the very high image contrast (15.5$\pm$0.6%) allowed us to detect for the first time a distinct subpopulation of mini-granular structures. These structures are dominant on spatial scales below 600 km. Their size is distributed as a power law with an index of -1.8 (which is close to the Kolmogorov's -5/3 law) and no predominant scale. The regular granules display a Gaussian (normal) size distribution with a mean diameter of 1050 km. Mini-granular structures contribute significantly to the total granular area. They are predominantly confined to the wide dark lanes between regular granules and often form chains and clusters, but different from magnetic bright points. A multi-fractality test reveals that the structures smaller than 600 km represent a multi-fractal, whereas on larger scales the granulation pattern shows no multi-fractality and can be considered as a Gaussian random field. The origin, properties and role of the newly discovered population of mini-granular structures in the solar magneto-convection are yet to be explored.

astro-ph.SR↗

Realistic Numerical Modeling of Solar Magnetoconvection and Oscillations

We have developed 3D, compressible, non-linear radiative MHD simulations to study the influence of the magnetic field of various strength and geometry on the turbulent convective cells and on the excitation mechanisms of the acoustic oscillations. The results reveal substantial changes of the granulation structure with increased magnetic field, and a frequency-dependent reduction in the oscillation power. These simulation results reproduce the enhanced high-frequency acoustic emission observed at the boundaries of active region ("acoustic halo" phenomenon). In the presence of inclined magnetic field the solar convection develops filamentary structure with flows concentrated along magnetic filaments, and also exhibits behavior of running magnetoconvective waves, resembling recent observations of the sunspot penumbra dynamics from Hinode/SOT.

astro-ph.SR↗