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Isaac Malsky

Publications and source records attributed to Isaac Malsky.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Accelerating Chemical Kinetics for Exoplanet Atmospheres using Neural Networks

Observations increasingly reveal the coupled radiative, chemical, and dynamical processes that shape exoplanet atmospheres. Interpreting these atmospheres requires models that can capture this complexity. However, multidimensional models remain fundamentally limited by computational cost, and answering key questions requires simulating the governing physical mechanisms at speeds classical methods cannot achieve. As a result, models often rely on simplifying approximations, such as equilibrium chemistry, even when those assumptions miss important effects. There is a pressing need for fast and accurate chemical kinetics solvers to model planetary atmospheres. Here we present a machine learning local-box chemical kinetics solver for exoplanet atmospheres using a residual flow-map architecture. We demonstrate that this surrogate model is several orders of magnitude faster than a classical solver, achieving microsecond-scale inference while retaining percent-level accuracy. The surrogate model covers a parameter space that spans $T=300$-$3000$ K, $P=10^{-6}$-$10^{4}$ bar, $\Delta t=10^{-3}$-$10^{8}$ s, and compositions ranging from $10^{-2}$ to $10^{3}$ times solar in both C/O ratio and metallicity. Our model outperforms several commonly used machine learning architectures and performs robustly under the extreme stiffness characteristic of atmospheric chemistry. The machine learning framework presented here is a flexible and efficient approach to emulating state-to-state flow-map problems that commonly arise in numerical simulations.

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The Days Drag On on WASP-121 b: Interpreting its NIRISS Spectroscopic Phase Curve with General Circulation Models

Ultra-hot Jupiters present extreme atmospheric phenomena not found in the Solar System. These planets' daysides experience strong temperature inversions, molecular species (including H2) dissociate, and magnetism disrupts their atmospheric circulation. On their nightsides H2 can recombine and clouds may form. Spectroscopic phase curves let us measure these spatially inhomogeneous conditions, which can then be interpreted with three-dimensional (3-D) models. In this work we compare the JWST/NIRISS spectroscopic phase curve of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-121 b to state-of-the-art 3-D models with varying modeling assumptions, including the aforementioned physical phenomena. We demonstrate the importance of accurately accounting for the planet's radius in comparison between data and models, as it changes the implied overall planetary emission. We find that the 3-D models predict planet emission $\sim$12% higher than observed, contributing to a continued tension between measured and predicted hot Jupiter albedos. We identify multiple pieces of evidence that confirm a strong source of drag operating in this planet's atmosphere. In addition, the nightside emission spectrum is devoid of strong absorption features, which may be best explained by nightside clouds. One feature of the dataset that is not matched by the 3-D models is a trend of increasing eastward phase offset with decreasing wavelength, for wavelengths shorter than $\sim$1.4 \textmu m. This result is not consistent with reflection from dayside clouds, nor can it be explained by removing atmospheric opacity sources. Our analysis highlights the complexities in generating 3-D models and interpreting observations of ultra-hot Jupiters in the JWST era.

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PICASO 4.0: Clouds and Photochemistry in Climate Models of Brown Dwarfs and Exoplanets

We present a major update to the open-source atmospheric modeling package \texttt{PICASO}, designed for simulating the thermal structure and spectra of hydrogen-rich atmospheres of brown dwarfs and exoplanets. This release, \texttt{PICASO 4.0}, expands upon the existing radiative-convective equilibrium model framework by incorporating several new capabilities. Key additions include the integration of \texttt{Virga} for self-consistent cloud modeling, new flexible treatments for rainout and cold trapping of volatile species, and support for photochemistry. We also introduce a parameterized energy injection scheme to simulate additional external or internal heating processes. These features are motivated by lessons from recent JWST observations that reveal the prevalence of non-equilibrium chemistry and clouds. We benchmark the new functionalities against previously published results in the literature, including the Sonora Diamondback grid, energy injected atmospheres, patchy cloud models, and other photochemical models of WASP-39b. \texttt{PICASO} continues to be actively developed as an open-source package aimed at enabling reproducible, community-driven atmospheric modeling of all substellar objects.

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Accelerating Radiative Transfer for Planetary Atmospheres by Orders of Magnitude with a Transformer-Based Machine Learning Model

Radiative transfer calculations are essential for modeling planetary atmospheres. However, standard methods are computationally demanding and impose accuracy-speed trade-offs. High computational costs force numerical simplifications in large models (e.g., General Circulation Models) that degrade the accuracy of the simulation. Radiative transfer calculations are an ideal candidate for machine learning emulation: fundamentally, it is a well-defined physical mapping from a static atmospheric profile to the resulting fluxes, and high-fidelity training data can be created from first principles calculations. We developed a radiative transfer emulator using an encoder-only transformer neural network architecture, trained on 1D profiles representative of solar-composition hot Jupiter atmospheres. Our emulator reproduced bolometric two-stream layer fluxes with mean test set errors of ~1% compared to the traditional method and achieved speedups of 100x. Emulating radiative transfer with machine learning opens up the possibility for faster and more accurate routines within planetary atmospheric models such as GCMs.

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Surprise non-detection of Upsilon Andromedae b with MIRC-X and MYSTIC at the CHARA Array

Ground-based long baseline interferometry is a powerful tool for characterizing exoplanets which are too close to their host star to be imaged with single-dish telescopes. The CHARA Array can resolve companions down to 0.5 milli-arcseconds, allowing us in principle to directly measure the near-infrared spectra of non-transiting "Hot Jupiter" exoplanets. We present data taken with the MIRC-X and MYSTIC instruments at the CHARA Array on the Hot Jupiter Upsilon Andromedae b. By resolving the star-planet system, we attempt to directly detect the flux from the planet. We describe our self-calibration methods for modeling systematics in the closure phase data, which allows us to reach sub-degree precision. Through combining multiple nights of data across two MIRC-X runs in 2019 and 2021, we achieved a very tentative detection of Ups And b in the H-band at a planet/star contrast of 2-3 x 10^-4. Unfortunately, we cannot confirm this detection with 2021 MYSTIC data in the K-band, or in a 2023 joint MIRC-X and MYSTIC dataset. We run updated global circulation models and create post-processed spectra for this planet, and report the resulting model spectra in H- and K-bands as a function of orbital phase. We then run planetary injection tests to explore H/K-band contrast limits, and find that we can confidently recover planets down to a planet/star contrast of 1-2 x 10^-4. We show that we are probing contrasts fainter than predicted by the model, making our non-detection surprising. We discuss prospects for the future in using this method to characterize companions with interferometry.

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Assessing robustness and bias in 1D retrievals of 3D Global Circulation Models at high spectral resolution: a WASP-76 b simulation case study in emission

High-resolution spectroscopy (HRS) of exoplanet atmospheres has successfully detected many chemical species and is quickly moving toward detailed characterization of the chemical abundances and dynamics. HRS is highly sensitive to the line shape and position, thus, it can detect three-dimensional (3D) effects such as winds, rotation, and spatial variation of atmospheric conditions. At the same time, retrieval frameworks are increasingly deployed to constrain chemical abundances, pressure-temperature (P-T) structures, orbital parameters, and rotational broadening. To explore the multidimensional parameter space, they need computationally fast models that are consequently mostly one-dimensional (1D). However, this approach risks introducing interpretation bias since the planet's true nature is 3D. We investigate the robustness of this methodology at high spectral resolution by running 1D retrievals on simulated observations in emission within an observational framework using 3D Global Circulation Models of the quintessential HJ WASP-76 b. We find that the retrieval broadly recovers conditions present in the atmosphere, but that the retrieved P-T and chemical profiles are not a homogeneous average of all spatial and phase-dependent information. Instead, they are most sensitive to spatial regions with large thermal gradients, which do not necessarily coincide with the strongest emitting regions. Our results further suggest that the choice of parameterization for the P-T and chemical profiles, as well as Doppler offsets among opacity sources, impact retrieval results. These factors should be carefully considered in future retrieval analyses.

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Out on a Limb: The Signatures of East-West Asymmetries in Transmission Spectra from General Circulation Models

In the era of JWST, observations of hot Jupiter atmospheres are becoming increasingly precise. As a result, the signature of limb asymmetries due to temperature or abundance differences and the presence of aerosols can now be directly measured using transmission spectroscopy. Using a grid of general circulation models (GCMs) with varying irradiation temperature (1500 K - 4000 K) and prescriptions of cloud formation, we simulate 3D ingress/egress and morning/evening-limb transmission spectra. We aim to assess the impact that clouds, 3D temperature structure, and non-uniform distribution of gases have on the observed spectra, and how these inhomogeneities can be identified. A second goal is to assess the relative merits of two separate methods (ingress/egress v.s. morning/evening-limb spectroscopy) for isolating atmospheric asymmetries. From our models, it is evident that an east-west temperature difference is the leading order effect for producing ingress/egress or morning/evening-limb spectral differences. We additionally find that clouds contribute strongly to the observed limb asymmetry at moderate irradiation temperatures in our grid ($\sim 2000 \mathrm{K} < T_{\mathrm{irr}} < 3500 \mathrm{K}). At lower temperatures clouds equally dominate the optical depth on both limbs, while at higher temperatures the entire terminator region remains cloud-free. We develop limb asymmetry metrics that can be used to assess the degree of east-west asymmetry for a given planet and predict trends in these metrics with respect to irradiation temperature that are indicative of various physical processes. Our results are useful for predicting and diagnosing the signatures of limb asymmetries in JWST spectra.

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The radiative effects of photochemical hazes on the atmospheric circulation and phase curves of sub-Neptunes

Measuring the atmospheric composition of hazy sub-Neptunes like GJ~1214b through transmission spectroscopy is difficult because of the degeneracy between mean molecular weight and haziness. It has been proposed that phase curve observations can break this degeneracy because of the relationship between mean molecular weight (MMW) and phase curve amplitude. However, photochemical hazes can strongly affect phase curve amplitudes as well. We present a large set of GCM simulations of the sub-Neptune GJ~1214b that include photochemical hazes with varying atmospheric composition, haze opacity and haze optical properties. In our simulations, photochemical hazes cause temperature changes of up to 200~K, producing thermal inversions and cooling deeper regions. This results in increased phase curve amplitudes and adds a considerable scatter to the phase curve amplitude--metallicity relationship. However, we find that if the haze production rate is high enough to significantly alter the phase curve, the secondary eclipse spectrum will exhibit either emission features or strongly muted absorption features. Thus, the combination of a white-light phase curve and a secondary eclipse spectrum can successfully distinguish between a hazy, lower MMW and a clear, high MMW scenario.

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Clouds and Hazes in GJ 1214b's Metal-Rich Atmosphere

The sub-Neptune GJ 1214b has an infamously flat transmission spectrum, likely due to thick aerosols in its atmosphere. A recent JWST MIRI spectroscopic phase curve of GJ 1214 b added to this picture, suggesting a highly reflective and metal-rich atmosphere. Using a 3D General Circulation Model with both photochemical hazes and condensate clouds, we characterize how different aerosol types affect the atmospheric structure of GJ 1214 b and manifest in its spectroscopic phase curve. Additionally, we reanalyze the original GJ 1214 b JWST phase curve. The reanalysis shows a hotter nightside, similar dayside temperature, and a lower, but still elevated, Bond albedo (0.42 +/- 0.11) than the original results. We find that a scenario with both clouds and hazes is most consistent with the JWST phase curve. Reflective clouds or hazes are needed to explain the large Bond albedo, and hazes or a super-solar metallicity help account for the several hundred Kelvin day-night temperature difference measured by the phase curve.

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An Analysis of Spitzer Phase Curves for WASP-121b and WASP-77Ab

We present analyses of Spitzer InfraRed Array Camera (IRAC) 3.6 $\mu$m and 4.5 $\mu$m phase curve observations of hot Jupiters WASP-77Ab and WASP-121b. For WASP-121b, we find amplitudes of 1771 $\pm$ 95 ppm (3.6 $\mu$m) and 2048 $\pm$ 109 ppm (4.5 $\mu$m), and near-zero offsets of -0.78 $\pm$ 1.87$^{\circ}$ (3.6 $\mu$m) and 0.42 $\pm$ 1.74$^{\circ}$ (4.5 $\mu$m), consistent within 2.2$\sigma$ and 1.3$\sigma$, respectively, with JWST NIRSpec results. For WASP-77Ab, we find amplitudes of 535 $\pm$ 52 ppm (3.6 $\mu$m) and 919 $\pm$ 40 ppm (4.5 $\mu$m), and offsets of 33.45 $\pm$ 2.79$^{\circ}$ (3.6 $\mu$m) and 16.28 $\pm$ 2.52$^{\circ}$ (4.5 $\mu$m). We report day- and nightside brightness temperatures: for WASP-121b, 2779 $\pm$ 40 K (3.6 $\mu$m) and 2905 $\pm$ 51 K (4.5 $\mu$m) (day) and 1259 $\pm$ 67 K (3.6 $\mu$m) and 1349 $\pm$ 54 K (4.5 $\mu$m) (night), and for WASP-77Ab, 1876 $\pm$ 23 K (3.6 $\mu$m) and 1780 $\pm$ 25 K (day) and 1501 $\pm$ 22 K (3.6 $\mu$m) and 1234 $\pm$ 20 K (4.5 $\mu$m) (night). Comparing WASP-121b data to general circulation models, we find evidence for drag inhibiting day-to-night heat transfer, which our model reproduces using magnetic circulation. Further, comparing both planets' data to Energy Balance Models, we show suppressed circulation in WASP-121b and potential evidence for an unusually high Bond albedo in WASP-77Ab. We add both planets to the Spitzer population study of previously identified trends in offset versus orbital period, finding that a positive trend is weakened, but not eliminated, by including these planets.

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Radiatively Active Clouds and Magnetic Effects Explored in a Grid of Hot Jupiter GCMs

Cloud formation and magnetic effects are both expected to significantly impact the structures and observable properties of hot Jupiter atmospheres. For some hot Jupiters, thermal ionization and condensation can coexist in a single atmosphere, and both processes are important. We present a grid of general circulation models across a wide range of irradiation temperatures with and without incorporating the effects of magnetism and cloud formation to investigate how these processes work in tandem. We find that clouds are present in the atmosphere at all modeled irradiation temperatures, while magnetic effects are negligible for planets with irradiation temperatures cooler than 2000 K. At and above this threshold, clouds and magnetic fields shape atmospheres together, with mutual feedback. Models that include magnetism, through their influence on the temperature structure, produce more longitudinally symmetric dayside cloud coverage and more equatorially concentrated clouds on the nightside and morning terminator. To indicate how these processes would affect observables, we generate bolometric thermal and reflected phase curves from these models. The combination of clouds and magnetic effects increases thermal phase curve amplitudes and decreases peak offsets more than either process does individually.

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The Roasting Marshmallows Program with IGRINS on Gemini South II -- WASP-121 b has super-stellar C/O and refractory-to-volatile ratios

A primary goal of exoplanet science is to measure the atmospheric composition of gas giants in order to infer their formation and migration histories. Common diagnostics for planet formation are the atmospheric metallicity ([M/H]) and the carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio as measured through transit or emission spectroscopy. The C/O ratio in particular can be used to approximately place a planet's initial formation radius from the stellar host, but a given C/O ratio may not be unique to formation location. This degeneracy can be broken by combining measurements of both the C/O ratio and the atmospheric refractory-to-volatile ratio. We report the measurement of both quantities for the atmosphere of the canonical ultra hot Jupiter WASP-121 b using the high resolution (R=45,000) IGRINS instrument on Gemini South. Probing the planet's direct thermal emission in both pre- and post-secondary eclipse orbital phases, we infer that WASP-121 b has a significantly super-stellar C/O ratio of 0.70$^{+0.07}_{-0.10}$ and a moderately super-stellar refractory-to-volatile ratio at 3.83$^{+3.62}_{-1.67} \times$ stellar. This combination is most consistent with formation between the soot line and H$_2$O snow line, but we cannot rule out formation between the H$_2$O and CO snow lines or beyond the CO snow line. We also measure velocity offsets between H$_2$O, CO, and OH, potentially an effect of chemical inhomogeneity on the planet day side. This study highlights the ability to measure both C/O and refractory-to-volatile ratios via high resolution spectroscopy in the near-infrared H and K bands.

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Two-Dimensional Eclipse Mapping of the Hot Jupiter WASP-43b with JWST MIRI/LRS

We present eclipse maps of the two-dimensional thermal emission from the dayside of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b, derived from an observation of a phase curve with the JWST MIRI/LRS instrument. The observed eclipse shapes deviate significantly from those expected for a planet emitting uniformly over its surface. We fit a map to this deviation, constructed from spherical harmonics up to order $\ell_{\rm max}=2$, alongside the planetary, orbital, stellar, and systematic parameters. This yields a map with a meridionally-averaged eastward hot-spot shift of $(7.75 \pm 0.36)^{\circ}$, with no significant degeneracy between the map and the additional parameters. We show the latitudinal and longitudinal contributions of the day-side emission structure to the eclipse shape, finding a latitudinal signal of $\sim$200 ppm and a longitudinal signal of $\sim$250 ppm. To investigate the sensitivity of the map to the method, we fix the non-mapping parameters and derive an "eigenmap" fitted with an optimised number of orthogonal phase curves, which yields a similar map to the $\ell_{\rm max}=2$ map. We also fit a map up to $\ell_{\rm max}=3$, which shows a smaller hot-spot shift, with a larger uncertainty. These maps are similar to those produced by atmospheric simulations. We conclude that there is a significant mapping signal which constrains the spherical harmonic components of our model up to $\ell_{\rm max}=2$. Alternative mapping models may derive different structures with smaller-scale features; we suggest that further observations of WASP-43b and other planets will drive the development of more robust methods and more accurate maps.

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The XUV-driven escape of the planets around TOI-431 & $ν^2$ Lupi

One of the leading mechanisms invoked to explain the existence of the radius valley is atmospheric mass loss driven by X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet irradiation, with this process stripping the primordial envelopes of young, small planets to produce the observed bimodal distribution. We present an investigation into the TOI-431 and $ν^2$ Lupi planetary systems, both of which host planets either side of the radius valley, to determine if their architectures are consistent with evolution by the XUV mechanism. With $\textit{XMM-Newton}$, we measure the current X-ray flux of each star, and see evidence for a stellar flare in the TOI-431 observations. We then simulate the evolution of all of the transiting planets across the two systems in response to the high-energy irradiation over their lifetimes. We use the measured X-ray fluxes as an anchor point for the XUV time evolution in our simulations, and employ several different models of estimating mass loss rates. While the simulations for TOI-431b encountered a problem with the initial calculated radii, we estimate a likely short ($\sim$ Myr) timespan for primordial envelope removal using reasonable assumptions for the initial planet. $ν^2$ Lupi b is likely harder to strip, but is achieved in a moderate fraction of our simulations. None of our simulations stripped any of the lower density planets of their envelope, in line with prediction. We conclude that both systems are consistent with expectations for generation of the radius valley through XUV photoevaporation.

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A Direct Comparison between the use of Double Gray and Multiwavelength Radiative Transfer in a General Circulation Model with and without Radiatively Active Clouds

Inhomogeneous cloud formation and wavelength-dependent phenomena are expected to shape hot Jupiter atmospheres. We present a General Circulation Model (GCM) with multiwavelength "picket fence" radiative transfer and radiatively active, temperature dependent clouds, and compare the results to a double gray routine. The double gray method inherently fails to model polychromatic effects in hot Jupiter atmospheres, while picket fence captures these non-gray aspects and performs well compared to fully wavelength-dependent methods. We compare both methods with radiatively active clouds and cloud-free models, assessing the limitations of the double gray method. Although there are broad similarities, the picket fence models have larger day-night side temperature differences, non-isothermal upper atmospheres, and multiwavelength effects in the presence of radiatively active clouds. We model the well-known hot Jupiters HD 189733 b and HD 209458 b. For the hotter HD 209458 b, the picket fence method prevents clouds from thermostating dayside temperatures, resulting in hotter upper atmospheres and the dissipation of dayside clouds. Differences in the temperature structures are then associated with nuanced differences in the circulation patterns and clouds. Models of the cooler HD 189733 b have global cloud coverage, regardless of radiative transfer scheme, whereas there are larger differences in the models of HD 209458 b, particularly in the extent of the partial cloud coverage on its dayside. This results in minor changes to the thermal and reflected light phase curves of HD 189733 b, but more significant differences for the picket fence and double gray versions of HD 209458 b.

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Nightside clouds and disequilibrium chemistry on the hot Jupiter WASP-43b

Hot Jupiters are among the best-studied exoplanets, but it is still poorly understood how their chemical composition and cloud properties vary with longitude. Theoretical models predict that clouds may condense on the nightside and that molecular abundances can be driven out of equilibrium by zonal winds. Here we report a phase-resolved emission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b measured from 5-12 $μ$m with JWST's Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). The spectra reveal a large day-night temperature contrast (with average brightness temperatures of 1524$\pm$35 and 863$\pm$23 Kelvin, respectively) and evidence for water absorption at all orbital phases. Comparisons with three-dimensional atmospheric models show that both the phase curve shape and emission spectra strongly suggest the presence of nightside clouds which become optically thick to thermal emission at pressures greater than ~100 mbar. The dayside is consistent with a cloudless atmosphere above the mid-infrared photosphere. Contrary to expectations from equilibrium chemistry but consistent with disequilibrium kinetics models, methane is not detected on the nightside (2$σ$ upper limit of 1-6 parts per million, depending on model assumptions).

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Helium Enhanced Planets Along the Upper Edge of the Radius Valley

The low mean densities of sub-Neptunes imply that they formed within a few million years and accreted primordial envelopes. Because these planets receive a total X-ray and extreme ultra-violet flux that is comparable to the gravitational binding energy of their envelopes, their primordial hydrogen-helium atmospheres are susceptible to mass loss. Models of photoevaporating sub-Neptunes have so far assumed that envelope compositions remain constant over time. However, preferential loss of atmospheric hydrogen has the potential to change their compositions. Here, by modeling the thermal and compositional evolution of sub-Neptunes undergoing atmospheric escape with diffusive separation between hydrogen and helium, we show that planets with radii between 1.6 and 2.5 that of Earth can become helium-enhanced from billions of years of photoevaporation, obtaining helium mass fractions in excess of 40%. Atmospheric helium enhancement can be detected through transmission spectra, providing a novel observational test for whether atmospheric escape creates the radius valley.

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Magnetic Effects and 3D Structure in Theoretical High-Resolution Transmission Spectra of Ultrahot Jupiters: the Case of WASP-76b

High resolution spectroscopy has allowed for unprecedented levels of atmospheric characterization, especially for the hottest gas giant exoplanets known as ultrahot Jupiters (UHJs). High-resolution spectra are sensitive to 3D effects, making complex 3D atmospheric models important for interpreting data. Moreover, these planets are expected to host magnetic fields that will shape their resulting atmospheric circulation patterns, but little modeling work has been done to investigate these effects. In this paper, we generate high-resolution transmission spectra from General Circulation Models for the canonical UHJ WASP-76b with three different magnetic treatments in order to understand the influence of magnetic forces on the circulation. In general, spectra from all models have increasingly blueshifted net Doppler shifts as transit progresses, but we find that the differing temperature and wind fields in the upper atmospheres of these models result in measurable differences. We find that magnetic effects may be contributing to the unusual trends previously seen in transmission for this planet. Our $B=3$ Gauss active drag model in particular shows unique trends not found in the models with simpler or no magnetic effects. The net Doppler shifts are additionally influenced by the dominant opacity sources in each wavelength range considered, as each species probes different regions of the atmosphere and are sensitive to spatial differences in the circulation. This work highlights the ongoing need for models of planets in this temperature regime to consider both 3D and magnetic effects when interpreting high resolution transmission spectra.

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