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Ismet Gocer

Publications and source records attributed to Ismet Gocer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

A Novel Evaluation Metric for Unsupervised Learning in AIS-Based Maritime Anomaly Detection: MADQI

This paper introduces a new systematic framework for detecting anomalies in maritime Automatic Identification System (AIS) datasets. These anomalies include abnormal vessel behaviours related to speed, position jumps, time gaps, and turn angles. Although unsupervised learning algorithms such as Isolation Forest are widely used for detecting anomalous vessel movements, they often lack systematic and meaningful evaluation measures. To address this limitation, we propose a novel quality metric called Maritime Anomaly Detection Quality Index (MADQI). The prosed MADQI is a composite index designed to evaluate the anomaly detection performance of machine learning models without requiring labelled data. The proposed framework uses Haversine distance calculations to analyse AIS datasets and identify anomalies based on their spatial and behavioural characteristics. The proposed MADQI evaluation framework integrates four interconnected metrics: Anomaly Rate Consistency (ARC), Physical Plausibility Score (PPS), Score Distribution Separation (SDS), and Extreme Case Evidence (ECE). These metrics are combined through automatic normalisation using multi-chunk evaluation and adaptive scaling techniques. Experimental results on the AIS dataset show that the proposed framework achieved a MADQI score of 80.37%, demonstrating its effectiveness for unsupervised anomaly detection. In particular, the algorithm performed strongly in identifying abnormal vessel behaviour. Among the individual MADQI components, ECE and ARC achieved scores of 0.907 and 1.000, respectively, indicating excellent capability in detecting extreme anomalies and maintaining anomaly rate consistency. Overall, these results are encouraging and demonstrate that the proposed framework provides a reliable and meaningful approach for evaluating unsupervised anomaly detection in maritime AIS data.

cs.LG

AI for Maritime Security: Comparative Evaluation of CNN and Vision Transformer Architectures for Maritime Object Detection

This study aims to enhance maritime security by using advanced Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Computer Vision (CV) techniques. For this purpose, it was designed and assessed intelligent object detection systems that can detect the presence of ships on the sea surface under different real-time environments. To achieve this goal, a maritime image dataset with 6,468 images was used, covering different weather conditions like cloudy, foggy, rainy, and sunny environments. Six deep learning architectures were evaluated, including a base Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, four transfer learning models (Xception, VGG16, MobileNetV2, and EfficientNetV2L), and a Vision Transformer (ViT) model. The models were compared using multiple performance indicators, including accuracy, Type I and Type II errors, model size, and video processing time. The results show that model performance varies depending on computational constraints and deployment conditions. While lightweight architectures are suitable for resource-limited devices, the ViT achieved the best overall performance, reaching 100% accuracy with the lowest error rates and the fastest video processing time. The findings highlight the potential of AI-driven computer vision systems for maritime surveillance, border protection, and autonomous navigation.

cs.CV

Introducing a New Brexit-Related Uncertainty Index: Its Evolution and Economic Consequences

Important game-changer economic events and transformations cause uncertainties that may affect investment decisions, capital flows, international trade, and macroeconomic variables. One such major transformation is Brexit, which refers to the multiyear process through which the UK withdrew from the EU. This study develops and uses a new Brexit-Related Uncertainty Index (BRUI). In creating this index, we apply Text Mining, Context Window, Natural Language Processing (NLP), and Large Language Models (LLMs) from Deep Learning techniques to analyse the monthly country reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit from May 2012 to January 2025. Additionally, we employ a standard vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to examine the model-implied responses of various macroeconomic variables to BRUI shocks. While developing the BRUI, we also create a complementary COVID-19 Related Uncertainty Index (CRUI) to distinguish the uncertainties stemming from these distinct events. Empirical findings and comparisons of BRUI with other earlier-developed uncertainty indexes demonstrate the robustness of the new index. This new index can assist British policymakers in measuring and understanding the impacts of Brexit-related uncertainties, enabling more effective policy formulation.

econ.GN