arXiv subjects

Itai Shufaro

Publications and source records attributed to Itai Shufaro.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Value of Mechanistic Priors in Sequential Decision Making

Hybrid mechanistic models, physical priors with learned residuals, promise to reduce the data required for good decisions, but have no computable criterion to test this. We characterize the value of mechanistic priors in sequential decision-making within both asymptotic and burn-in regimes. To formalize this, we introduce the mechanistic information of a model -- the mutual information between the model's recommended policy $\hatπ$ and the true optimal policy $π^*$ -- quantified via an occupancy-weighted bias $B_μ$. In the asymptotic regime (large $N$), matched bounds reveal that Bayesian regret scales with the residual entropy $H_{\mathrm{mech}}$, delivering a theoretical sample complexity reduction of $H(μ)/H_{\mathrm{mech}}$ compared to an uninformed baseline. Furthermore, we provide a model certificate to determine empirical sample efficiency. Complementarily, in the clinically relevant burn-in regime (small $N$), we establish a lower bound on the penalty incurred by confidently wrong priors. We demonstrate both the asymptotic and burn-in bounds across 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) dosing simulations motivated by published FOLFOX pharmacokinetic data, where a hybrid prior yields large sample-efficiency gains in the burn-in regime. Finally, we contrast these grounded models with LLM priors, demonstrating that LLMs can suffer severe losses in mechanistic information, thereby motivating the exclusive use of physically-grounded priors for safety-critical applications.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On Bits and Bandits: Quantifying the Regret-Information Trade-off

In many sequential decision problems, an agent performs a repeated task. He then suffers regret and obtains information that he may use in the following rounds. However, sometimes the agent may also obtain information and avoid suffering regret by querying external sources. We study the trade-off between the information an agent accumulates and the regret it suffers. We invoke information-theoretic methods for obtaining regret lower bounds, that also allow us to easily re-derive several known lower bounds. We introduce the first Bayesian regret lower bounds that depend on the information an agent accumulates. We also prove regret upper bounds using the amount of information the agent accumulates. These bounds show that information measured in bits, can be traded off for regret, measured in reward. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of these bounds in improving the performance of a question-answering task with large language models, allowing us to obtain valuable insights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

On the Global Convergence of Policy Gradient in Average Reward Markov Decision Processes

We present the first finite time global convergence analysis of policy gradient in the context of infinite horizon average reward Markov decision processes (MDPs). Specifically, we focus on ergodic tabular MDPs with finite state and action spaces. Our analysis shows that the policy gradient iterates converge to the optimal policy at a sublinear rate of $O\left({\frac{1}{T}}\right),$ which translates to $O\left({\log(T)}\right)$ regret, where $T$ represents the number of iterations. Prior work on performance bounds for discounted reward MDPs cannot be extended to average reward MDPs because the bounds grow proportional to the fifth power of the effective horizon. Thus, our primary contribution is in proving that the policy gradient algorithm converges for average-reward MDPs and in obtaining finite-time performance guarantees. In contrast to the existing discounted reward performance bounds, our performance bounds have an explicit dependence on constants that capture the complexity of the underlying MDP. Motivated by this observation, we reexamine and improve the existing performance bounds for discounted reward MDPs. We also present simulations to empirically evaluate the performance of average reward policy gradient algorithm.

cs.LG↗