arXiv subjects

Ivan Diaz

Publications and source records attributed to Ivan Diaz.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Efficient and flexible estimation of natural mediation effects under intermediate confounding and monotonicity constraints

Natural direct and indirect effects are mediational estimands that decompose the average treatment effect and describe how outcomes would be affected by contrasting levels of a treatment through changes induced in mediator values (in the case of the indirect effect) or not through induced changes in the mediator values (in the case of the direct effect). Natural direct and indirect effects are not generally point-identifiable in the presence of a treatment-induced confounder, however they may still be identified if one is willing to assume monotonicity between a treatment and the treatment-induced confounder. We argue that this assumption may be reasonable in the relatively common encouragement-design trial setting where intervention is randomized treatment assignment and the treatment-induced confounder is whether or not treatment was actually taken/adhered to. We develop efficiency theory for the natural direct and indirect effects under this monotonicity assumption, and use it to propose a nonparametric, multiply robust estimator. We demonstrate the finite sample properties of this estimator using a simulation study, and apply it to data from the Moving to Opportunity Study to estimate the natural direct and indirect effects of being randomly assigned to receive a Section 8 housing voucher -- the most common form of federal housing assistance -- on risk developing any mood or externalizing disorder among adolescent boys, possibly operating through various school and community characteristics.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Causal mediation with instrumental variables

Mediation analysis is a strategy for understanding the mechanisms by which treatments or interventions affect later outcomes. Mediation analysis is frequently applied in randomized trial settings, but typically assumes: a) that randomized assignment is the exposure of interest as opposed to actual take-up of the intervention, and b) no unobserved confounding of the mediator-outcome relationship. In contrast to the rich literature on instrumental variable (IV) methods to estimate a total effect of a non-randomized exposure, there has been almost no research into using IV as an identification strategy in the presence of both exposure-outcome and mediator-outcome unobserved confounding. In response, we define and identify novel estimands -- complier interventional direct and indirect effects (i.e., IV mediational effects) in two scenarios: 1) with a single IV for the exposure, and 2) with two IVs, one for the exposure and another for the mediator, that may be related. We propose nonparametric, robust, efficient estimators, and apply them to a housing voucher experiment.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

When the ends don't justify the means: Learning a treatment strategy to prevent harmful indirect effects

There is a growing literature on finding so-called optimal treatment rules, which are rules by which to assign treatment to individuals based on an individual's characteristics, such that a desired outcome is maximized. A related goal entails identifying individuals who are predicted to have a harmful indirect effect (the effect of treatment on an outcome through mediators) even in the presence of an overall beneficial effect of the treatment on the outcome. In some cases, the likelihood of a harmful indirect effect may outweigh a likely beneficial overall effect, and would be reason to caution against treatment for indicated individuals. We build on both the current mediation and optimal treatment rule literature to propose a method of identifying a subgroup for which the treatment effect through the mediator is harmful. Our approach is nonparametric, incorporates post-treatment variables that may confound the mediator-outcome relationship, and does not make restrictions on the distribution of baseline covariates, mediating variables (considered jointly), or outcomes. We apply the proposed approach to identify a subgroup of boys in the Moving to Opportunity housing voucher experiment who are predicted to have harmful indirect effects, though the average total effect is beneficial.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Efficiently transporting causal (in)direct effects to new populations under intermediate confounding and with multiple mediators

The same intervention can produce different effects in different sites. Transport mediation estimators can estimate the extent to which such differences can be explained by differences in compositional factors and the mechanisms by which mediating or intermediate variables are produced; however, they are limited to consider a single, binary mediator. We propose novel nonparametric estimators of transported stochastic (in)direct effects that consider multiple, high-dimensional mediators and intermediate variables. They are multiply robust, efficient, asymptotically normal, and can incorporate data-adaptive estimation of nuisance parameters. They can be applied to understand differences in treatment effects across sites and/or to predict treatment effects in a target site based on outcome data in source sites.

stat.ME↗