arXiv subjects

Ivan O. Kitov

Publications and source records attributed to Ivan O. Kitov.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Low-magnitude seismic activity between the Kamchatka July 20 and July 29, 2025, earthquakes. Spatio-temporal evolution recovered using waveform cross-correlation

The M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake on July 29, 2025 was one of the largest in the first quarter of the 21st century. It deserves a thorough analysis including the preparation process. A smaller M7.4 earthquake occurred on July 20 with its epicenter within the confidence ellipse for the July 29 event. The aftershock sequence of the July 20 earthquake and the evolution of seismicity within the Kamchatka Peninsula region during 10 days period before the July 29 event may provide important information on the earthquake preparation and initiation processes. The CTBTO's International Monitoring System is one of the most sensitive global seismic networks comprising high-resolution array stations with enhanced sensitivity relative to three-component stations at the same locations. The International Data Centre of the CTBTO processes IMS data automatically and interactively to create a Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB), which serves as a source of information for the International Seismological Centre. Waveform cross-correlation (WCC) allows for additional detection capabilities to the IMS data and IDC processing when repeated seismicity is analyzed. The aftershock sequence of the July 20 earthquake is recovered using the WCC-based detection and phase association techniques as applied to the IMS data in order to accurately describe the spatio-temporal evolution of seismic process just before the July 29 event. With the reduced detection threshold, smaller events are found in the zones where the REB has no located sources. This finding opens up the possibility for a more detailed study of seismic and mechanical processes before the July 29 mainshock.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2011

Okun's law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?

Okun's law for the biggest developed countries is re-estimated using the most recent data on real GDP per capita and the rate of unemployment. Our results show that the change in unemployment rate can be predicted with a high accuracy. The link needs the introduction of a structural break which might be caused by the change in monetary policy or/and in measurement units. Statistically, the link between the studied variables is characterized by the coefficient of determination between 0.40 (Australia) and 0.84 (the USA). The residual errors can be associated with measurement errors. The obtained results suggest the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2010

Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited

In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to the trend. Specifically, the model predicted that "the price for motor fuel in the US will also grow by 50% by the end of 2009. Oil price is expected to rise by ~50% as well, from its current value of ~$50 per barrel". The behavior of actual price has shown that this prediction is accurate in both amplitude and trajectory shape. Hence, one can conclude that the concept of price decomposition into a short-term (oscillating) and long-term (linear trend) components is valid. According to the model, the price of motor fuel and crude oil will be falling to the level of $30 per barrel during the next 5 to 8 years.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2010

S&P 500 returns revisited

The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are well predicted by the original model, however. The rally will end in March/April 2010 and the S&P 500 level will be decreasing into 2011. This prediction should validate the model.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2010

Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts

Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series. Econometrically, the pricing concept is valid. For several companies, share prices are defined only by CPI readings in the past. Therefore, our empirical pricing model is a deterministic one. For a few companies, including Lehman Brothers, AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, negative share prices could be foreseen in May-September 2008. One might interpret the negative share prices as a sign of approaching bankruptcies.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2010

Inflation and unemployment in Japan: from 1980 to 2050

The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a statistically reliable (R2=0.68) Phillips curve, which is characterized by a negative relation between inflation and unemployment and their synchronous evolution: UE(t) = -0.94p(t) + 0.045. Effectively, growing unemployment has resulted in decreasing inflation since 1982. A linear and lagged generalized relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force has been also obtained for Japan: p(t) = 2.8*dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.9*UE(t) - 0.0392. Labor force projections allow a prediction of inflation and unemployment in Japan: CPI inflation will be negative (between -0.5% and -1% per year) during the next 40 years. Unemployment will increase from ~4.0% in 2010 to 5.3% in 2050.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2010

Modelling and predicting labor force productivity

Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real GDP per capita. New results validate the link and allow predicting a drop in productivity by 2010 in almost all studied countries.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2009

Does economics need a scientific revolution?

Economics does not need a scientific revolution. Economics needs accurate measurements according to high standards of natural sciences and meticulous work on revealing empirical relationships between measured variables.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2009

Mechanical Model of Personal Income Distribution

A microeconomic model is developed, which accurately predicts the shape of personal income distribution (PID) in the United States and the evolution of the shape over time. The underlying concept is borrowed from geo-mechanics and thus can be considered as mechanics of income distribution. The model allows the resolution of empirical and definitional problems associated with personal income measurements. It also serves as a firm fundament for definitions of income inequality as secondary derivatives from personal income distribution. It is found that in relative terms the PID in the US has not been changing since 1947. Effectively, the Gini coefficient has been almost constant during the last 60 years, as reported by the Census Bureau.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2009

What is the best firm size to invest?

Significant differences in the evolution of firm size distribution for various industries in the United States have been revealed and documented. For theoretical considerations, this finding puts major constraints on the modelling of firm growth. For practical purposes, the observed differences create a solid basis for selective investment strategies.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2008

The driving force of labor productivity

Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully determined by the rate of economic growth, and thus, is a secondary economic variable. Initially, we assess a model for the U.S. and then test it using data for Japan, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada. Results obtained for these countries validate those for the U.S. The evolution of labor force productivity is predictable at least at an 11-year horizon

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

GDP growth rate and population

Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40 years. The second term is inherently related to population and defined by the relative change in the number of people with a specific age (9 years in the USA), (1/2)*dN9(t) /N9(t), where N9(t) is the number of 9-year-olds at time t. The Tcr grows as the square root of real GDP per capita. Hence, evolution of real GDP is defined by only one parameter - the number of people of the specific age. Predictions for the USA, the UK, and France are presented and discussed. A similar relationship is derived for real GDP per capita. Annual increment of GDP per capita is also a combination of economic trend term and the same specific age population term. The economic trend term during last 55 years is equal to $400 (2002 US dollars) divided by the attained level of real GDP per capita. Thus, the economic trend term has an asymptotic value of zero. Inversion of the measured GDP values is used to recover the corresponding change of the specific age population between 1955 and 2003. The population recovery method based on GDP potentially is of a higher accuracy than routine censuses.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system

The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income distribution and its evolution and a simple functional relationship between the rate of the per capita GDP growth and the attained level of the per capita GDP are used to describe the transition process. The developed transition model contains only three defining parameters and describes the process of real GDP per capita evolution during the last 15 years. It is found that the transition process finished in the Central European countries several years ago and their economic evolution is defined by pure capitalist rules. In the long run, this means that the future of these countries has to follow the same path, i.e. dependence on the per capita GDP growth rate of the per capita GDP itself, as the developed countries have had in the past. If the best GDP evolution scenario occurs for the studied countries, they will be able to maintain the absolute lag in per capita GDP relative to most developed countries including the USA. But they will never catch the advanced countries if they follow the same rules of development. In Russia and some countries of the Former Soviet Union the transition process is still far from complete.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

Real GDP per capita in developed countries

Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest developed economies. Statistical analysis of 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2004 shows a very weak linear trend in the annual GDP per capita increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada show a larger positive linear trend. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with potentially Levy distribution for far tails. Developing countries demonstrate the increment values far below the mean increment for the most developed economies. This indicates an underperformance in spite of large relative growth rates.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

Inflation as a function of labor force change rate: cointegration test for the USA

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best among other inflation forecasting models). This relationship is tested for cointegration. Both variables are integrated of order one according to the presence of a unit root in the series and its absence in their first differences. Two methods of cointegration testing are applied: the Engle-Granger one based on the unit root test of the residuals including a variety of specification tests and the Johansen cointegration rank test based on the VAR representation. Both approaches demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated and the long-run equilibrium relation revealed in previous study holds. According to the Granger causality test, the labor force change is proved to be a weakly exogenous variable - a natural result considering the time lead and the existence of a cointegrating relation. VAR and VECM representations do not provide any significant improvement in RMSFE. There are numerous applications of the equation: from purely theoretical - a robust fundamental relation between macroeconomic and population variables, to a practical one - an accurate out-of-sample inflation forecasting at a two-year horizon and a long-term prediction based on labor force projections. The predictive power of the relationship is inversely proportional to the uncertainty of labor force estimates. Therefore, future inflation research programs should start from a significant improvement in the accuracy of labor force estimations.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

Relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate in France: cointegration test

A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by A0=-1, A1=4, A2=0.095, t0=4 years, and t1=4 years. For GDP deflator, it provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 1.0% at a four-year horizon for the period between 1971 and 2004. The relationship is tested for cointegration. All three variables involved in the relationship are proved to be integrated of order one. Two methods of cointegration testing are used. First is the Engle-Granger approach based on the unit root test in the residuals of linear regression, which also includes a number of specification tests. Second method is the Johansen cointegration rank test based on a VAR representation, which is also proved to be an adequate one via a set of appropriate tests. Both approaches demonstrate that the variables are cointegrated and the long-run equilibrium relation revealed in previous study holds together with statistical estimates of goodness-of-fit and RMSFE. Relationships between inflation and labor force and between unemployment and labor force are tested separately in appropriate time intervals, where the Banque de France monetary policy introduced in 1995 does not disturb the long-term links. All the individual relationships are cointegrated in corresponding intervals. The VAR and vector error correction (VEC) models are estimated and provide just a marginal improvement in RMSFE at the four-year horizon both for GDP deflator (down to 0.9%) and CPI (~1.1%) on the results obtained in the regression study.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

Modelling the average income dependence on work experience

The average and median income dependence on work experience and time is analyzed and modeled for the USA. The original data set providing the mean and median income estimates in 10 year long intervals spans a long time period of almost 35 years ? from 1967 to 2003. A microeconomic model linking personal income, population age structure and GDP per capita is used to predict the mean income values in various age groups and their relative evolution in time. Also modeled is the value of work experience where the mean income growth ends and it starts to drop exponentially with increasing age. This work experience increases through time as the square root of the per capita GDP growth. Prediction for the following 20 years is given for each age group considering potential per capita growth rate of 1.6%. The USA mean income dependence on work experience for 1987 coincides with that for 2002 in the UK ? the years when per capita GDP were equal in the countries.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2008

Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration test

A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita itself, with the nominator being constant through time. The second component is responsible for fluctuations around the economic trend and is defined as a half of the growth rate of the number of 9-year-olds. This nonlinear relationship between the growth rate of real GDP per capita and the number of 9-year-olds in the USA is tested for cointegration. For linearization of the problem, a predicted population time series is calculated using the original relationship. Both single year of age population time series, the measured and predicted one, are shown to be integrated of order 1. The Engel-Granger approach is applied to the difference of the measured and predicted time series and to the residuals or corresponding linear regression. Both tests show the existence of a cointegrating relation. The Johansen test results in the cointegrating rank 1. Since a cointegrating relation between the measured and predicted number of 9-year-olds does exist, the VAR, VECM, and linear regression are used in estimation of the goodness of fit and root mean-square errors, RMSE. The highest R2=0.95 and the best RMSE is obtained in the VAR representation. Econometrically, the tests for cointegration show that the deviations of real economic growth in the USA from the economic trend, as defined by the constant annual increment of real per capita GDP, are driven by the change in the number of 9-year-olds.

q-fin.GN↗