Ivan Puga-Gonzalez | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

A Role-Based Multi-Agent Model for Climate Adaptation Deliberation Across Living Labs

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

A Multi-Level Agent-Based Architecture for Climate Governance Integrating Cognitive and Institutional Dynamics

Climate governance processes involve complex interactions between heterogeneous citizens, advocacy groups, media actors, and political decision-makers. While agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely used to study environmental policy and socio-ecological systems, many existing approaches focus either on institutional dynamics or individual behavioural mechanisms in isolation. This paper presents a modular multi-level agent-based architecture that integrates empirically grounded cognitive decision models with strategic institutional behaviour within a unified simulation framework. The architecture combines (i) motive-based individual decision-making operationalised through the HUMAT and MOA frameworks, (ii) socially embedded influence processes via demographic homophily networks, and (iii) institutional strategy modules for environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs), media agents, and politicians. Political decisions emerge from the aggregation of multiple signals, including expert input, public mobilisation, party alignment, and media framing. The model is designed to be empirically calibrated through synthetic populations derived from survey data and and institutional parameters informed through Living Lab stakeholder engagement, and to support scenario-based exploration of climate-relevant land-use governance processes. Rather than presenting empirical results, this paper focuses on the architectural design principles, modular structure, and integration logic of the model. We discuss how this multi-layered approach contributes to the modelling of democratic climate governance and outline pathways for generalization and future validation.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Towards an ABM on Proactive Community Adaptation for Climate Change

We present an agent-based model (ABM) simulating proactive community adaptation to climate change in an urban context. The model is applied to Bergen, Norway, represented as a complex socio-ecological system. It integrates multiple agent types: municipal government (urban planners and political actors), civil society (individual citizens), environmental NGOs and activists, and media. Agents interact during urban planning processes - particularly the evaluation and approval of new development proposals. Urban planners provide technical assessments, while politicians (organized by party) make final decisions to approve, modify, or reject projects. Environmental NGOs, activist groups, and the media shape public perception and influence policymakers through campaigns, lobbying, protests, and news coverage. Individual citizens decide whether to engage in collective action based on personal values and social influences. The model captures the resulting decision-making ecosystem and reveals feedback loops and leverage points that determine climate-adaptive outcomes. By analyzing these dynamics, we identify critical intervention points where targeted policy measures can facilitate systemic transformation toward more climate-resilient urban development.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

An Investigation into the Causal Mechanism of Political Opinion Dynamics: A Model of Hierarchical Coarse-Graining with Community-Bounded Social Influence

The increasing polarization in democratic societies is an emergent outcome of political opinion dynamics. Yet, the fundamental mechanisms behind the formation of political opinions, from individual beliefs to collective consensus, remain unknown. Understanding that a causal mechanism must account for both bottom-up and top-down influences, we conceptualize political opinion dynamics as hierarchical coarse-graining, where microscale opinions integrate into a macro-scale state variable. Using the CODA (Continuous Opinions Discrete Actions) model, we simulate Bayesian opinion updating, social identity-based information integration, and migration between social identity groups to represent higher-level connectivity. This results in coarse-graining across micro, meso, and macro levels. Our findings show that higher-level connectivity shapes information integration, yielding three regimes: independent (disconnected, local convergence), parallel (fast, global convergence), and iterative (slow, stepwise convergence). In the iterative regime, low connectivity fosters transient diversity, indicating an informed consensus. In all regimes, time-scale separation leads to downward causation, where agents converge on the aggregate majority choice, driving consensus. Critically, any degree of coherent higher-level information integration can overcome misalignment via global downward causation. The results highlight how emergent properties of the causal mechanism, such as downward causation, are essential for consensus and may inform more precise investigations into polarized political discourse.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Network nestedness in primates: a structural constraint or a biological advantage of social complexity?

This study investigates the prevalence and implications of nestedness within primate social networks, examining its relationship with cognitive and structural factors. We analysed data from 51 primate groups across 21 species, employing network analysis to evaluate nestedness and its correlation with modularity, neocortex ratio, and group size. We used Bayesian mixed effects modelling to investigate nestedness in primate social networks, controlling for phylogenetic dependencies and exploring various factors like neocortex ratio and group size. Our findings reveal a significant occurrence of nestedness in 66% of the species studied, exceeding chance expectations. This nestedness was more pronounced in groups with less steep dominance hierarchies, contrary to traditional assumptions linking it to hierarchical social structures. A notable inverse relationship between nestedness and modularity was observed, suggesting a structural trade-off in network formation. This pattern persisted even after controlling for species-specific social behaviours, indicating a general structural feature of primate networks. Surprisingly, our analysis showed no significant correlation between nestedness and neocortex ratio or group size, challenging the social brain hypothesis and suggesting a greater role for ecological factors in cognitive evolution. This study emphasises the importance of weak links in maintaining network resilience. Overall, our research provides new insights into primate social network structures, highlighting complex interplays between network characteristics and challenging existing paradigms in cognitive and evolutionary biology.

q-bio.QM↗