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János Kertész

Publications and source records attributed to János Kertész.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Social Physics: A manifesto

Social Physics seeks quantitative, empirically testable explanations of collective human behavior. Its name has a long and contested history, but its contemporary program is neither the claim that society is literally a physical system nor an attempt to replace the social sciences with physics. It is an interdisciplinary practice: observation and experimentation, model construction, mathematical and computational analysis, and repeated confrontation with data. The field has been transformed by analyzing digital traces, network science, agent-based modeling, large-scale experiments, and the capacity to study coupled dynamics across economic, social, technological, biological, and physical layers. We review advances in financial analysis and modeling; economic complexity; the structure and evolution of social networks; spreading, opinion, and information dynamics; inequality, cooperation, conflict, mobility, cities, culture, science, and collective behavior; and the emerging study of human-AI ecosystems. Across these domains, common features recur - heterogeneity, interaction, feedback, adaptation, non-equilibrium dynamics, multiscale organization, and emergent collective outcomes. We also confront the limitations that have arisen in this field: convenience samples, platform dependence, weak causal identification, over-universal claims, insufficient engagement with meaning and institutions, privacy risks, and the danger that predictive models become instruments of manipulation. We propose a future Social Physics organized around theory - data reciprocity; causal and generative explanation; measurement validity and cross-context generalization; responsible, participatory data governance; genuinely interdisciplinary collaboration; and reflexive study of interventions and algorithms that alter the systems being observed.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Convergence criteria for self-consistent measures in bipartite networks

Many quantities that characterize network elements are defined in an explicit form and calculated directly from the network structure; examples of include several centrality measures like degree, closeness, or betweenness. However, there are also implicitly defined quantitative measures, which are usually calculated iteratively, in a self-consistent manner, like PageRank or countries' fitness / products' complexity relations. The iteration algorithms involve calculations over the entire network; therefore, their convergence properties depend on the structure of the network. Here, we focus on investigating self-consistently defined quantities in bipartite networks of two sets of nodes where the quantities in one set are determined by the quantities in the other set and vice versa. We derive an explicit convergence criterion for iterations of these quantities and describe two different approaches to improve the convergence properties. In the first one, we identify "problematic nodes" that can be removed or merged while in the second one, we introduce a regularization scheme and show how to estimate the regularization parameter.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Decentralised Federated Learning over Temporal Networks: The Role of Heterogeneities

Decentralised federated learning, based on peer-to-peer communication, is increasingly proposed for on-device training of machine learning models, promising a privacy-preserving, communication-efficient training process with no risk of single-point failure. However, the role of structural and temporal inhomogeneities in such fully decentralised settings remains poorly understood. Here, we investigate their effects when model parameters are locally averaged during aggregation. We show that the decentralised federated learning process is governed, both in the early phase and the late, stationary limit, by the same dynamics as a lazy random-walk diffusion process on temporal networks. Based on this mapping, we demonstrate that the typical experimental scenario used in decentralised federated learning leads to unrealistically rapid convergence because of ignoring the temporal and structural inhomogeneities inherent in the communication network. We analyse real-world temporal networks and find that inhomogeneities most often dramatically slow down diffusion, hence the convergence process.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Adjacent Possible Innovation Dynamics on Local Optima Networks

We propose Local Optima Networks (LONs) as a formal framework for modeling innovation dynamics. A LON is a directed weighted graph in which nodes represent locally stable technological configurations and edges encode transition probabilities between their basins of attraction. We construct LONs from fitness landscapes and model innovating agents as stochastic walkers exploring the adjacent possible on the resulting network. We show that this model simultaneously generates the four main empirical regularities of the discovery-process tradition: sublinear novelty growth (Heaps' law), heavy-tailed frequency distributions (Zipf's law), anomalous fluctuation scaling (Taylor's law), and power-law distributed inter-event times. The exponents fall within empirically observed ranges and are jointly constrained by LON topology. Communities in the LON provide an operational definition of technological paradigms grounded in basin-level accessibility. The LON framework thus bridges the discovery-process and adaptive-search traditions of innovation modeling within a single, parsimonious, and empirically testable representation.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications

Multilayer network science has emerged as a central framework for analysing interconnected and interdependent complex systems. Its relevance has grown substantially with the increasing availability of rich, heterogeneous data, which makes it possible to uncover and exploit the inherently multilayered organisation of many real-world networks. In this review, we summarise recent developments in the field. On the theoretical and methodological front, we outline core concepts and survey advances in community detection, dynamical processes, temporal networks, higher-order interactions, and machine-learning-based approaches. On the application side, we discuss progress across diverse domains, including interdependent infrastructures, spreading dynamics, computational social science, economic and financial systems, ecological and climate networks, science-of-science studies, network medicine, and network neuroscience. We conclude with a forward-looking perspective, emphasizing the need for standardised datasets and software, deeper integration of temporal and higher-order structures, and a transition toward genuinely predictive models of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2025

Robustness of Decentralised Learning to Nodes and Data Disruption

In the vibrant landscape of AI research, decentralised learning is gaining momentum. Decentralised learning allows individual nodes to keep data locally where they are generated and to share knowledge extracted from local data among themselves through an interactive process of collaborative refinement. This paradigm supports scenarios where data cannot leave local nodes due to privacy or sovereignty reasons or real-time constraints imposing proximity of models to locations where inference has to be carried out. The distributed nature of decentralised learning implies significant new research challenges with respect to centralised learning. Among them, in this paper, we focus on robustness issues. Specifically, we study the effect of nodes' disruption on the collective learning process. Assuming a given percentage of "central" nodes disappear from the network, we focus on different cases, characterised by (i) different distributions of data across nodes and (ii) different times when disruption occurs with respect to the start of the collaborative learning task. Through these configurations, we are able to show the non-trivial interplay between the properties of the network connecting nodes, the persistence of knowledge acquired collectively before disruption or lack thereof, and the effect of data availability pre- and post-disruption. Our results show that decentralised learning processes are remarkably robust to network disruption. As long as even minimum amounts of data remain available somewhere in the network, the learning process is able to recover from disruptions and achieve significant classification accuracy. This clearly varies depending on the remaining connectivity after disruption, but we show that even nodes that remain completely isolated can retain significant knowledge acquired before the disruption.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Milgram's experiment in the knowledge space: Individual navigation strategies

Data deluge characteristic for our times has led to information overload, posing a significant challenge to effectively finding our way through the digital landscape. Addressing this issue requires an in-depth understanding of how we navigate through the abundance of information. Previous research has discovered multiple patterns in how individuals navigate in the geographic, social, and information spaces, yet individual differences in strategies for navigation in the knowledge space has remained largely unexplored. To bridge the gap, we conducted an online experiment where participants played a navigation game on Wikipedia and completed questionnaires about their personal information. Utilizing the hierarchical structure of the English Wikipedia and a graph embedding trained on it, we identified two navigation strategies and found that there are significant individual differences in the choices of them. Older, white and female participants tend to adopt a proximity-driven strategy, while younger participants prefer a hub-driven strategy. Our study connects social navigation to knowledge navigation: individuals' differing tendencies to use geographical and occupational information about the target person to navigate in the social space can be understood as different choices between the hub-driven and proximity-driven strategies in the knowledge space.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2025

Initialisation and Network Effects in Decentralised Federated Learning

Fully decentralised federated learning enables collaborative training of individual machine learning models on a distributed network of communicating devices while keeping the training data localised on each node. This approach avoids central coordination, enhances data privacy and eliminates the risk of a single point of failure. Our research highlights that the effectiveness of decentralised federated learning is significantly influenced by the network topology of connected devices and the learning models' initial conditions. We propose a strategy for uncoordinated initialisation of the artificial neural networks based on the distribution of eigenvector centralities of the underlying communication network, leading to a radically improved training efficiency. Additionally, our study explores the scaling behaviour and the choice of environmental parameters under our proposed initialisation strategy. This work paves the way for more efficient and scalable artificial neural network training in a distributed and uncoordinated environment, offering a deeper understanding of the intertwining roles of network structure and learning dynamics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

A Comparative Analysis of Wealth Index Predictions in Africa between three Multi-Source Inference Models

Poverty map inference has become a critical focus of research, utilizing both traditional and modern techniques, ranging from regression models to convolutional neural networks applied to tabular data, satellite imagery, and networks. While much attention has been given to validating models during the training phase, the final predictions have received less scrutiny. In this study, we analyze the International Wealth Index (IWI) predicted by Lee and Braithwaite (2022) and Espín-Noboa et al. (2023), alongside the Relative Wealth Index (RWI) inferred by Chi et al. (2022), across six Sub-Saharan African countries. Our analysis reveals trends and discrepancies in wealth predictions between these models. In particular, significant and unexpected discrepancies between the predictions of Lee and Braithwaite and Espín-Noboa et al., even after accounting for differences in training data. In contrast, the shape of the wealth distributions predicted by Espín-Noboa et al. and Chi et al. are more closely aligned, suggesting similar levels of skewness. These findings raise concerns about the validity of certain models and emphasize the importance of rigorous audits for wealth prediction algorithms used in policy-making. Continuous validation and refinement are essential to ensure the reliability of these models, particularly when they inform poverty alleviation strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2024

Impact of physicality on network structure

The emergence of detailed maps of physical networks, like the brain connectome, vascular networks, or composite networks in metamaterials, whose nodes and links are physical entities, have demonstrated the limits of the current network science toolset. Link physicality imposes a non-crossing condition that affects both the evolution and the structure of a network, in a way that the adjacency matrix alone -- the starting point of all graph-based approaches -- cannot capture. Here, we introduce a meta-graph that helps us discover an exact mapping between linear physical networks and independent sets, a central concept in graph theory. The mapping allows us to analytically derive both the onset of physical effects and the emergence of a jamming transition, and show that physicality impacts the network structure even when the total volume of the links is negligible. Finally, we construct the meta-graphs of several real physical networks, which allows us to predict functional features, such as synapse formation in the brain connectome, that agree with empirical data. Overall, our results show that, in order to understand the evolution and behavior of real complex networks, the role of physicality must be fully quantified.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗
arXiv2024

Homophilic organization of egocentric communities in ICT services

Members of a society can be characterized by a large number of features, such as gender, age, ethnicity, religion, social status, and shared activities. One of the main tie-forming factors between individuals in human societies is homophily, the tendency of being attracted to similar others. Homophily has been mainly studied with focus on one of the features and little is known about the roles of similarities of different origins in the formation of communities. To close this gap, we analyze three datasets from Information and Communications Technology (ICT) services, namely, two online social networks and a network deduced from mobile phone calls, in all of which metadata about individual features are available. We identify communities within egocentric networks and surprisingly find that the larger the community is, the more overlap is found between features of its members and the ego. We interpret this finding in terms of the effort needed to manage the communities; the larger diversity requires more effort such that to maintain a large diverse group may exceed the capacity of the members. As the ego reaches out to her alters on an ICT service, we observe that the first alter in each community tends to have a higher feature overlap with the ego than the rest. Moreover the feature overlap of the ego with all her alters displays a non-monotonic behaviors as a function of the ego's degree. We propose a simple mechanism of how people add links in their egocentric networks of alters that reproduces all the empirical observations and shows the reason behind non-monotonic tendency of the egocentric feature overlap as a function of the ego's degree.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2024

Disentangling degree and tie strength heterogeneity in egocentric social networks

The structure of personal networks reflects how we organise and maintain social relationships. The distribution of tie strengths in personal networks is heterogeneous, with a few close, emotionally intense relationships and a larger number of weaker ties. Recent results indicate this feature is universal across communication channels. Within this general pattern, there is a substantial and persistent inter-individual variation that is also similarly distributed among channels. The reason for the observed universality is yet unclear -- one possibility is that people's traits determine their personal network features on any channel. To address this hypothesis, we need to compare an individual's personal networks across channels, which is a non-trivial task: while we are interested in measuring the differences in tie strength heterogeneity, personal network size is also expected to vary a lot across channels. Therefore, for any measure that compares personal networks, one needs to understand the sensitivity with respect to network size. Here, we study different measures of personal network similarity and show that a recently introduced alter-preferentiality parameter and the Gini coefficient are equally suitable measures for tie strength heterogeneity, as they are fairly insensitive to differences in network size. With these measures, we show that the earlier observed individual-level persistence of personal network structure cannot be attributed to network size stability alone, but that the tie strength heterogeneity is persistent too. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of the two measures on multichannel data, where tie strength heterogeneity in personal networks is seen to moderately correlate for the same users across two communication channels (calls and text messages).

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2024

Individual differences in knowledge network navigation

With the rapid accumulation of online information, efficient web navigation has grown vital yet challenging. To create an easily navigable cyberspace catering to diverse demographics, understanding how people navigate differently is paramount. While previous research has unveiled individual differences in spatial navigation, such differences in knowledge space navigation remain sparse. To bridge this gap, we conducted an online experiment where participants played a navigation game on Wikipedia and completed personal information questionnaires. Our analysis shows that age negatively affects knowledge space navigation performance, while multilingualism enhances it. Under time pressure, participants' performance improves across trials and males outperform females, an effect not observed in games without time pressure. In our experiment, successful route-finding is usually not related to abilities of innovative exploration of routes. Our results underline the importance of age, multilingualism and time constraint in the knowledge space navigation.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2024

Multidimensional political polarization in online social networks

Political polarization in online social platforms is a rapidly growing phenomenon worldwide. Despite their relevance to modern-day politics, the structure and dynamics of polarized states in digital spaces are still poorly understood. We analyze the community structure of a two-layer, interconnected network of French Twitter users, where one layer contains members of Parliament and the other one regular users. We obtain an optimal representation of the network in a four-dimensional political opinion space by combining network embedding methods and political survey data. We find structurally cohesive groups sharing common political attitudes and relate them to the political party landscape in France. The distribution of opinions of professional politicians is narrower than that of regular users, indicating the presence of more extreme attitudes in the general population. We find that politically extreme communities interact less with other groups as compared to more centrist groups. We apply an empirically tested social influence model to the two-layer network to pinpoint interaction mechanisms that can describe the political polarization seen in data, particularly for centrist groups. Our results shed light on the social behaviors that drive digital platforms towards polarization, and uncover an informative multidimensional space to assess political attitudes online.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2023

Coordination-free Decentralised Federated Learning on Complex Networks: Overcoming Heterogeneity

Federated Learning (FL) is a well-known framework for successfully performing a learning task in an edge computing scenario where the devices involved have limited resources and incomplete data representation. The basic assumption of FL is that the devices communicate directly or indirectly with a parameter server that centrally coordinates the whole process, overcoming several challenges associated with it. However, in highly pervasive edge scenarios, the presence of a central controller that oversees the process cannot always be guaranteed, and the interactions (i.e., the connectivity graph) between devices might not be predetermined, resulting in a complex network structure. Moreover, the heterogeneity of data and devices further complicates the learning process. This poses new challenges from a learning standpoint that we address by proposing a communication-efficient Decentralised Federated Learning (DFL) algorithm able to cope with them. Our solution allows devices communicating only with their direct neighbours to train an accurate model, overcoming the heterogeneity induced by data and different training histories. Our results show that the resulting local models generalise better than those trained with competing approaches, and do so in a more communication-efficient way.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

In A Society of Strangers, Kin Is Still Key: Identified Family Relations In Large-Scale Mobile Phone Data

Mobile call networks have been widely used to investigate communication patterns and the network of interactions of humans at the societal scale. Yet, more detailed analysis is often hindered by having no information about the nature of the relationships, even if some metadata about the individuals are available. Using a unique, large mobile phone database with information about individual surnames in a population in which people inherit two surnames: one from their father, and one from their mother, we are able to differentiate among close kin relationship types. Here we focus on the difference between the most frequently called alters depending on whether they are family relationships or not. We find support in the data for two hypotheses: (1) phone calls between family members are more frequent and last longer than phone calls between non-kin, and (2) the phone call pattern between family members show a higher variation depending on the stage of life-course compared to non-family members. We give an interpretation of these findings within the framework of evolutionary anthropology: kinship matters even when demographic processes, such as low fertility, urbanisation and migration reduce the access to family members. Furthermore, our results provide tools for distinguishing between different kinds of kin relationships from mobile call data, when information about names are unavailable.

cs.SI↗
arXiv2023

Unified framework for hybrid percolation transitions based on microscopic dynamics

A hybrid percolation transition (HPT) exhibits both discontinuity of the order parameter and critical behavior at the transition point. Such dynamic transitions can occur in two ways: by cluster pruning with suppression of loop formation of cut links or by cluster merging with suppression of the creation of large clusters. While the microscopic mechanism of the former is understood in detail, a similar framework is missing for the latter. By studying two distinct cluster merging models, we uncover the universal mechanism of the features of HPT-s at a microscopic level. We find that these features occur in three steps: (i) medium-sized clusters accumulate due to the suppression rule hindering the growth of large clusters, (ii) those medium size clusters eventually merge and a giant cluster increases rapidly, and (iii) the suppression effect becomes obsolete and the kinetics is governed by the Erdős-Rényi type of dynamics. We show that during the second and third period, the growth of the largest component must proceed in the form of a Devil's staircase. We characterize the critical behavior by two sets of exponents associated with the order parameter and cluster size distribution, which are related to each other by a scaling relation. Extensive numerical simulations are carried out to support the theory where a specific method is applied for finite-size scaling analysis to enable handling the large fluctuations of the transition point. Our results provide a unified theoretical framework for the HPT.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗
arXiv2023

Interpreting wealth distribution via poverty map inference using multimodal data

Poverty maps are essential tools for governments and NGOs to track socioeconomic changes and adequately allocate infrastructure and services in places in need. Sensor and online crowd-sourced data combined with machine learning methods have provided a recent breakthrough in poverty map inference. However, these methods do not capture local wealth fluctuations, and are not optimized to produce accountable results that guarantee accurate predictions to all sub-populations. Here, we propose a pipeline of machine learning models to infer the mean and standard deviation of wealth across multiple geographically clustered populated places, and illustrate their performance in Sierra Leone and Uganda. These models leverage seven independent and freely available feature sources based on satellite images, and metadata collected via online crowd-sourcing and social media. Our models show that combined metadata features are the best predictors of wealth in rural areas, outperforming image-based models, which are the best for predicting the highest wealth quintiles. Our results recover the local mean and variation of wealth, and correctly capture the positive yet non-monotonous correlation between them. We further demonstrate the capabilities and limitations of model transfer across countries and the effects of data recency and other biases. Our methodology provides open tools to build towards more transparent and interpretable models to help governments and NGOs to make informed decisions based on data availability, urbanization level, and poverty thresholds.

cs.LG↗