arXiv subjects

János Kertész

Publications and source records attributed to János Kertész.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Corruption Risk in Contracting Markets: A Network Science Perspective

We use methods from network science to analyze corruption risk in a large administrative dataset of over 4 million public procurement contracts from European Union member states covering the years 2008-2016. By mapping procurement markets as bipartite networks of issuers and winners of contracts we can visualize and describe the distribution of corruption risk. We study the structure of these networks in each member state, identify their cores and find that highly centralized markets tend to have higher corruption risk. In all EU countries we analyze, corruption risk is significantly clustered. However, these risks are sometimes more prevalent in the core and sometimes in the periphery of the market, depending on the country. This suggests that the same level of corruption risk may have entirely different distributions. Our framework is both diagnostic and prescriptive: it roots out where corruption is likely to be prevalent in different markets and suggests that different anti-corruption policies are needed in different countries.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2019

A network approach to cartel detection in public auction markets

Competing firms can increase profits by setting prices collectively, imposing significant costs on consumers. Such groups of firms are known as cartels and because this behavior is illegal, their operations are secretive and difficult to detect. Cartels feel a significant internal obstacle: members feel short-run incentives to cheat. Here we present a network-based framework to detect potential cartels in bidding markets based on the idea that the chance a group of firms can overcome this obstacle and sustain cooperation depends on the patterns of its interactions. We create a network of firms based on their co-bidding behavior, detect interacting groups, and measure their cohesion and exclusivity, two group-level features of their collective behavior. Applied to a market for school milk, our method detects a known cartel and calculates that it has high cohesion and exclusivity. In a comprehensive set of nearly 150,000 public contracts awarded by the Republic of Georgia from 2011 to 2016, detected groups with high cohesion and exclusivity are significantly more likely to display traditional markers of cartel behavior. We replicate this relationship between group topology and the emergence of cooperation in a simulation model. Our method presents a scalable, unsupervised method to find groups of firms in bidding markets ideally positioned to form lasting cartels.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Reentrant phase transitions in threshold driven contagion on multiplex networks

Models of threshold driven contagion explain the cascading spread of information, behavior, systemic risk, and epidemics on social, financial and biological networks. At odds with empirical observation, these models predict that single-layer unweighted networks become resistant to global cascades after reaching sufficient connectivity. We investigate threshold driven contagion on weight heterogeneous multiplex networks and show that they can remain susceptible to global cascades at any level of connectivity, and with increasing edge density pass through alternating phases of stability and instability in the form of reentrant phase transitions of contagion. Our results provide a novel theoretical explanation for the observation of large scale contagion in highly connected but heterogeneous networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Sampling networks by nodal attributes

In a social network individuals or nodes connect to other nodes by choosing one of the channels of communication at a time to re-establish the existing social links. Since available data sets are usually restricted to a limited number of channels or layers, these autonomous decision making processes by the nodes constitute the sampling of a multiplex network leading to just one (though very important) example of sampling bias caused by the behavior of the nodes. We develop a general setting to get insight and understand the class of network sampling models, where the probability of sampling a link in the original network depends on the attributes $h$ of its adjacent nodes. Assuming that the nodal attributes are independently drawn from an arbitrary distribution $ρ(h)$ and that the sampling probability $r(h_i , h_j)$ for a link $ij$ of nodal attributes $h_i$ and $h_j$ is also arbitrary, we derive exact analytic expressions of the sampled network for such network characteristics as the degree distribution, degree correlation, and clustering spectrum. The properties of the sampled network turn out to be sums of quantities for the original network topology weighted by the factors stemming from the sampling. Based on our analysis, we find that the sampled network may have sampling-induced network properties that are absent in the original network, which implies the potential risk of a naive generalization of the results of the sample to the entire original network. We also consider the case, when neighboring nodes have correlated attributes to show how to generalize our formalism for such sampling bias and we get good agreement between the analytic results and the numerical simulations.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Structural transition in social networks: The role of homophily

We introduce a model for the formation of social networks, which takes into account the homophily or the tendency of individuals to associate and bond with similar others, and the mechanisms of global and local attachment as well as tie reinforcement due to social interactions between people. We generalize the weighted social network model such that the nodes or individuals have $F$ features and each feature can have $q$ different values. Here the tendency for the tie formation between two individuals due to the overlap in their features represents homophily. We find a phase transition as a function of $F$ or $q$, resulting in a phase diagram. For fixed $q$ and as a function of $F$ the system shows two phases separated at $F_c$. For $F{<}F_c$ large, homogeneous, and well separated communities can be identified within which the features match almost perfectly (segregated phase). When $F$ becomes larger than $F_c$, the nodes start to belong to several communities and within a community the features match only partially (overlapping phase). Several quantities reflect this transition, including the average degree, clustering coefficient, feature overlap, and the number of communities per node. We also make an attempt to interpret these results in terms of observations on social behavior of humans.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Temporal inactivation enhances robustness in an evolving system

We study the robustness of an evolving system that is driven by successive inclusions of new elements or constituents with $m$ random interactions to older ones. Each constitutive element in the model stays either active or is temporarily inactivated depending upon the influence of the other active elements. If the time spent by an element in the inactivated state reaches $T_W$, it gets extinct. The phase diagram of this dynamic model as a function of $m$ and $T_W$ is investigated by numerical and analytical methods and as a result both growing (robust) as well as non-growing (volatile) phases are identified. It is also found that larger time limit $T_W$ enhances the system's robustness against the inclusion of new elements, mainly due to the system's increased ability to reject "falling-together" type attacks. Our results suggest that the ability of an element to survive in an unfavorable situation for a while, either as a minority or in a dormant state, could improve the robustness of the entire system.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2018

Social capital predicts corruption risk in towns

Corruption is a social plague: gains accrue to small groups, while its costs are borne by everyone. Significant variation in its level between and within countries suggests a relationship between social structure and the prevalence of corruption, yet, large scale empirical studies thereof have been missing due to lack of data. In this paper we relate the structural characteristics of social capital of towns with corruption in their local governments. Using datasets from Hungary, we quantify corruption risk by suppressed competition and lack of transparency in the town's awarded public contracts. We characterize social capital using social network data from a popular online platform. Controlling for social, economic, and political factors, we find that settlements with fragmented social networks, indicating an excess of \textit{bonding social capital} have higher corruption risk and towns with more diverse external connectivity, suggesting a surplus of \textit{bridging social capital} are less exposed to corruption. We interpret fragmentation as fostering in-group favoritism and conformity, which increase corruption, while diversity facilitates impartiality in public life and stifles corruption.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Status maximization as a source of fairness in a networked dictator game

Human behavioural patterns exhibit selfish or competitive, as well as selfless or altruistic tendencies, both of which have demonstrable effects on human social and economic activity. In behavioural economics, such effects have traditionally been illustrated experimentally via simple games like the dictator and ultimatum games. Experiments with these games suggest that, beyond rational economic thinking, human decision-making processes are influenced by social preferences, such as an inclination to fairness. In this study we suggest that the apparent gap between competitive and altruistic human tendencies can be bridged by assuming that people are primarily maximising their status, i.e., a utility function different from simple profit maximisation. To this end we analyse a simple agent-based model, where individuals play the repeated dictator game in a social network they can modify. As model parameters we consider the living costs and the rate at which agents forget infractions by others. We find that individual strategies used in the game vary greatly, from selfish to selfless, and that both of the above parameters determine when individuals form complex and cohesive social networks.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2018

Algorithmic bias amplifies opinion polarization: A bounded confidence model

The flow of information reaching us via the online media platforms is optimized not by the information content or relevance but by popularity and proximity to the target. This is typically performed in order to maximise platform usage. As a side effect, this introduces an algorithmic bias that is believed to enhance polarization of the societal debate. To study this phenomenon, we modify the well-known continuous opinion dynamics model of bounded confidence in order to account for the algorithmic bias and investigate its consequences. In the simplest version of the original model the pairs of discussion participants are chosen at random and their opinions get closer to each other if they are within a fixed tolerance level. We modify the selection rule of the discussion partners: there is an enhanced probability to choose individuals whose opinions are already close to each other, thus mimicking the behavior of online media which suggest interaction with similar peers. As a result we observe: a) an increased tendency towards polarization, which emerges also in conditions where the original model would predict convergence, and b) a dramatic slowing down of the speed at which the convergence at the asymptotic state is reached, which makes the system highly unstable. Polarization is augmented by a fragmented initial population.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Universality and scaling laws in the cascading failure model with healing

Cascading failures may lead to dramatic collapse in interdependent networks, where the breakdown takes place as a discontinuity of the order parameter. In the cascading failure (CF) model with healing there is a control parameter which at some value suppresses the discontinuity of the order parameter. However, up to this value of the healing parameter the breakdown is a hybrid transition, meaning that, besides this first order character, the transition shows scaling too. In this paper we investigate the question of universality related to the scaling behavior. Recently we showed that the hybrid phase transition in the original CF model has two sets of exponents describing respectively the order parameter and the cascade statistics, which are connected by a scaling law. In the CF model with healing we measure these exponents as a function of the healing parameter. We find two universality classes: In the wide range below the critical healing value the exponents agree with those of the original model, while above this value the model displays trivial scaling meaning that fluctuations follow the central limit theorem.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Cascading collapse of online social networks

Online social networks have increasing influence on our society, they may play decisive roles in politics and can be crucial for the fate of companies. Such services compete with each other and some may even break down rapidly. Using social network datasets we show the main factors leading to such a dramatic collapse. At early stage mostly the loosely bound users disappear, later collective effects play the main role leading to cascading failures. We present a theory based on a generalised threshold model to explain the findings and show how the collapse time can be estimated in advance using the dynamics of the churning users. Our results shed light to possible mechanisms of instabilities in other competing social processes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Stylized facts in social networks: Community-based static modeling

The past analyses of datasets of social networks have enabled us to make empirical findings of a number of aspects of human society, which are commonly featured as stylized facts of social networks, such as broad distributions of network quantities, existence of communities, assortative mixing, and intensity-topology correlations. Since the understanding of the structure of these complex social networks is far from complete, for deeper insight into human society more comprehensive datasets and modeling of the stylized facts are needed. Although the existing dynamical and static models can generate some stylized facts, here we take an alternative approach by devising a community-based static model with heterogeneous community sizes and larger communities having smaller link density and weight. With these few assumptions we are able to generate realistic social networks that show most stylized facts for a wide range of parameters, as demonstrated numerically and analytically. Since our community-based static model is simple to implement and easily scalable, it can be used as a reference system, benchmark, or testbed for further applications.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Service adoption spreading in online social networks

The collective behaviour of people adopting an innovation, product or online service is commonly interpreted as a spreading phenomenon throughout the fabric of society. This process is arguably driven by social influence, social learning and by external effects like media. Observations of such processes date back to the seminal studies by Rogers and Bass, and their mathematical modelling has taken two directions: One paradigm, called simple contagion, identifies adoption spreading with an epidemic process. The other one, named complex contagion, is concerned with behavioural thresholds and successfully explains the emergence of large cascades of adoption resulting in a rapid spreading often seen in empirical data. The observation of real world adoption processes has become easier lately due to the availability of large digital social network and behavioural datasets. This has allowed simultaneous study of network structures and dynamics of online service adoption, shedding light on the mechanisms and external effects that influence the temporal evolution of behavioural or innovation adoption. These advancements have induced the development of more realistic models of social spreading phenomena, which in turn have provided remarkably good predictions of various empirical adoption processes. In this chapter we review recent data-driven studies addressing real-world service adoption processes. Our studies provide the first detailed empirical evidence of a heterogeneous threshold distribution in adoption. We also describe the modelling of such phenomena with formal methods and data-driven simulations. Our objective is to understand the effects of identified social mechanisms on service adoption spreading, and to provide potential new directions and open questions for future research.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Enhanced robustness of evolving open systems by the bidirectionality of interactions between elements

Living organisms, ecosystems, and social systems are examples of complex systems in which robustness against inclusion of new elements is an essential feature. A recently proposed simple model has revealed a general mechanism by which such systems can become robust against inclusion of elements with random interactions when the elements have a moderate number of links. This happens as a result of two opposing effects such that while the inclusion of elements with more interactions makes each individual element more robust against disturbances, it also increases the net impact of the loss of any element in the system. The interaction is, however, in many systems often intrinsically bidirectional like for mutual symbiosis, competition in ecology, and the action-reaction law of Newtonian mechanics, etc. This study reports the strong reinforcement effect of the bidirectionality of the interactions on the robustness of evolving systems. We show that the system with purely bidirectional interactions can grow with two-fold average degree, in comparison with the purely unidirectional system. This drastic shift of the transition point comes from the reinforcement of each node, not from a change in structure of the emergent system. For systems with partially bidirectional interactions we find that the area of the growing phase gets expanded. In the dense interaction regime, there exists an optimum proportion of bidirectional interactions for the growth rate at around $1/3$. In the sparsely connected systems, small but finite fraction of bidirectional links can change the system's behaviour from non-growing to growing behaviour.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2016

What does Big Data tell? Sampling the social network by communication channels

Big Data has become the primary source of understanding the structure and dynamics of the society at large scale. The network of social interactions can be considered as a multiplex, where each layer corresponds to one communication channel and the aggregate of all of them constitutes the entire social network. However, usually one has information only about one of the channels or even a part of it, which should be considered as a subset or sample of the whole. Here we introduce a model based on a natural bilateral communication channel selection mechanism, which for one channel leads to consistent changes in the network properties. For example, while it is expected that the degree distribution of the whole social network has a maximum at a value larger than one, we get a monotonously decreasing distribution as observed in empirical studies of single channel data. We also find that assortativity may occur or get strengthened due to the sampling method. We analyze the far-reaching consequences of our findings.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world's largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions --induced by a single adopting neighbour-- appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Geographies of an online social network

How is online social media activity structured in the geographical space? Recent studies have shown that in spite of earlier visions about the "death of distance", physical proximity is still a major factor in social tie formation and maintenance in virtual social networks. Yet, it is unclear, what are the characteristics of the distance dependence in online social networks. In order to explore this issue the complete network of the former major Hungarian online social network is analyzed. We find that the distance dependence is weaker for the online social network ties than what was found earlier for phone communication networks. For a further analysis we introduced a coarser granularity: We identified the settlements with the nodes of a network and assigned two kinds of weights to the links between them. When the weights are proportional to the number of contacts we observed weakly formed, but spatially based modules resembling to the borders of macro-regions, the highest level of regional administration in the country. If the weights are defined relative to an uncorrelated null model, the next level of administrative regions, counties are reflected.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Modeling the role of relationship fading and breakup in social network formation

In social networks of human individuals, social relationships do not necessarily last forever as they can either fade gradually with time, resulting in link aging, or terminate abruptly, causing link deletion, as even old friendships may cease. In this paper, we study a social network formation model where we introduce several ways by which a link termination takes place. If we adopt the link aging, we get a more modular structure with more homogeneously distributed link weights within communities than when link deletion is used. By investigating distributions and relations of various network characteristics, we find that the empirical findings are better reproduced with the link deletion model. This indicates that link deletion plays a more prominent role in organizing social networks than link aging.

physics.soc-ph↗