arXiv subjects

J. A. Davies

Publications and source records attributed to J. A. Davies.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Using Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor for real time space weather predictions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internal structure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In this study, we take advantage of a rare opportunity to use Solar Orbiter, at 0.5\,AU upstream of Earth, as an upstream solar wind monitor. We were able to use real time science quality magnetic field measurements, taken only 12 minutes earlier, to predict the arrival time of a CME prior to reaching Earth. We used measurements at Solar Orbiter to constrain an ensemble of simulation runs from the ELEvoHI model, reducing the uncertainty in arrival time from 10.4\,hours to 2.5\,hours. There was also an excellent agreement in the $B_z$ profile between Solar Orbiter and Wind spacecraft, despite being separated by 0.5\,AU and 10$^{\circ}$ longitude. Therefore, we show that it is possible to predict not only the arrival time of a CME, but the sub-structure of the magnetic field within it, over a day in advance. The opportunity to use Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor will repeat once a year, which should further help assess the efficacy upstream in-situ measurements in real time space weather forecasting.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Multipoint interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed with Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Wind and STEREO-A

We report the result of the first search for multipoint in situ and imaging observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) starting with the first Solar Orbiter (SolO) data in 2020 April - 2021 April. A data exploration analysis is performed including visualizations of the magnetic field and plasma observations made by the five spacecraft SolO, BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe (PSP), Wind and STEREO-A, in connection with coronagraph and heliospheric imaging observations from STEREO-A/SECCHI and SOHO/LASCO. We identify ICME events that could be unambiguously followed with the STEREO-A heliospheric imagers during their interplanetary propagation to their impact at the aforementioned spacecraft, and look for events where the same ICME is seen in situ by widely separated spacecraft. We highlight two events: (1) a small streamer blowout CME on 2020 June 23 observed with a triple lineup by PSP, BepiColombo and Wind, guided by imaging with STEREO-A, and (2) the first fast CME of solar cycle 25 ($ \approx 1600$ km s$^{-1}$) on 2020 November 29 observed in situ by PSP and STEREO-A. These results are useful for modeling the magnetic structure of ICMEs and the interplanetary evolution and global shape of their flux ropes and shocks, and for studying the propagation of solar energetic particles. The combined data from these missions are already turning out to be a treasure trove for space weather research and are expected to become even more valuable with an increasing number of ICME events expected during the rise and maximum of solar cycle 25.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

In situ multi-spacecraft and remote imaging observations of the first CME detected by Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo

On 2020 April 19 a coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in situ by Solar Orbiter at a heliocentric distance of about 0.8 AU. The CME was later observed in situ on April 20th by the Wind and BepiColombo spacecraft whilst BepiColombo was located very close to Earth. This CME presents a good opportunity for a triple radial alignment study, as the spacecraft were separated by less than 5$^\circ$ in longitude. The source of the CME, which was launched on April 15th, was an almost entirely isolated streamer blowout. STEREO-A observed the event remotely from -75.1$^\circ$ longitude, which is an exceptionally well suited viewpoint for heliospheric imaging of an Earth directed CME. The configuration of the four spacecraft has provided an exceptionally clean link between remote imaging and in situ observations of the CME. We have used the in situ observations of the CME at Solar Orbiter, Wind, and BepiColombo, and the remote observations of the CME at STEREO-A in combination with flux rope models to determine the global shape of the CME and its evolution as it propagated through the inner heliosphere. A clear flattening of the CME cross-section has been observed by STEREO-A, and further confirmed by comparing profiles of the flux rope models to the in situ data, where the distorted flux rope cross-section qualitatively agrees most with in situ observations of the magnetic field at Solar Orbiter. Comparing in situ observations of the magnetic field between spacecraft, we find that the dependence of the maximum (mean) magnetic field strength decreases with heliocentric distance as $r^{-1.24 \pm 0.50}$ ($r^{-1.12 \pm 0.14}$), in disagreement with previous studies. Further assessment of the axial and poloidal magnetic field strength dependencies suggests that the expansion of the CME is likely neither self-similar nor cylindrically symmetric.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

LUCI onboard Lagrange, the Next Generation of EUV Space Weather Monitoring

LUCI (Lagrange eUv Coronal Imager) is a solar imager in the Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) that is being developed as part of the Lagrange mission, a mission designed to be positioned at the L5 Lagrangian point to monitor space weather from its source on the Sun, through the heliosphere, to the Earth. LUCI will use an off-axis two mirror design equipped with an EUV enhanced active pixel sensor. This type of detector has advantages that promise to be very beneficial for monitoring the source of space weather in the EUV. LUCI will also have a novel off-axis wide field-of-view, designed to observe the solar disk, the lower corona, and the extended solar atmosphere close to the Sun-Earth line. LUCI will provide solar coronal images at a 2-3 minute cadence in a pass-band centred on 19.5 nm. Observations made through this pass-band allow for the detection and monitoring of semi-static coronal structures such as coronal holes, prominences, and active regions; as well as transient phenomena such as solar flares, limb Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), EUV waves, and coronal dimmings. The LUCI data will complement EUV solar observations provided by instruments located along the Sun-Earth line such as PROBA2-SWAP, SUVI-GOES and SDO-AIA, as well as provide unique observations to improve space weather forecasts. Together with a suite of other remote-sensing and in-situ instruments onboard Lagrange, LUCI will provide science quality operational observations for space weather monitoring.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

The high helium abundance and charge states of the interplanetary CME and its material source on the Sun

Identifying the source of the material within coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and understanding CME onset mechanisms are fundamental issues in solar and space physics. Parameters relating to plasma composition, such as charge states and He abundance (\ahe), may be different for plasmas originating from differing processes or regions on the Sun. Thus, it is crucial to examine the relationship between in-situ measurements of CME composition and activity on the Sun. We study the CME that erupted on 2014 September 10, in association with an X1.6 flare, by analyzing AIA imaging and IRIS spectroscopic observations and its in-situ signatures detected by Wind and ACE. We find that during the slow expansion and intensity increase of the sigmoid, plasma temperatures of 9 MK, and higher, first appear at the footpoints of the sigmoid, associated with chromospheric brightening. Then the high-temperature region extends along the sigmoid. IRIS observations confirm that this extension is caused by transportation of hot plasma upflow. Our results show that chromospheric material can be heated to 9 MK, and above, by chromospheric evaporation at the sigmoid footpoints before flare onset. The heated chromospheric material can transport into the sigmoidal structure and supply mass to the CME. The aforementioned CME mass supply scenario provides a reasonable explanation for the detection of high charge states and elevated \ahe\ in the associated ICME. The observations also demonstrate that the quasi-steady evolution in the precursor phase is dominated by magnetic reconnection between the rising flux rope and the overlying magnetic field structure.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

CMEs in the Heliosphere: III. A Statistical Analysis of the Kinematic Properties Derived from Stereoscopic Geometrical Modelling Techniques Applied to CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2008 to 2014 by STEREO/HI-1

We present an analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on board NASA's Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. Between August 2008 and April 2014 we identify 273 CMEs that are observed simultaneously, by the HIs on both spacecraft. For each CME, we track the observed leading edge, as a function of time, from both vantage points, and apply the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) technique to infer their propagation throughout the inner heliosphere. The technique is unable to accurately locate CMEs when their observed leading edge passes between the spacecraft, however, we are able to successfully apply the technique to 151, most of which occur once the spacecraft separation angle exceeds 180 degrees, during solar maximum. We find that using a small half-width to fit the CME can result in observed acceleration to unphysically high velocities and that using a larger half-width can fail to accurately locate the CMEs close to the Sun because the method does not account for CME over-expansion in this region. Observed velocities from SSSE are found to agree well with single-spacecraft (SSEF) analysis techniques applied to the same events. CME propagation directions derived from SSSE and SSEF analysis agree poorly because of known limitations present in the latter. This work was carried out as part of the EU FP7 HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service) project (http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/).

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

CMEs in the Heliosphere: I. A Statistical Analysis of the Observational Properties of CMEs Detected in the Heliosphere from 2007 to 2017 by STEREO/HI-1

We present a statistical analysis of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) imaged by the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments aboard NASAs twin-spacecraft STEREO mission between April 2007 and August 2017 for STEREO-A and between April 2007 and September 2014 for STEREO-B. The analysis exploits a catalogue that was generated within the FP7 HELCATS project. Here, we focus on the observational characteristics of CMEs imaged in the heliosphere by the inner (HI-1) cameras. More specifically, in this paper we present distributions of the basic observational parameters - namely occurrence frequency, central position angle (PA) and PA span - derived from nearly 2000 detections of CMEs in the heliosphere by HI-1 on STEREO-A or STEREO-B from the minimum between Solar Cycles 23 and 24 to the maximum of Cycle 24; STEREO-A analysis includes a further 158 CME detections from the descending phase of Cycle 24, by which time communication with STEREO-B had been lost. We compare heliospheric CME characteristics with properties of CMEs observed at coronal altitudes, and with sunspot number. As expected, heliospheric CME rates correlate with sunspot number, and are not inconsistent with coronal rates once instrumental factors/differences in cataloguing philosophy are considered. As well as being more abundant, heliospheric CMEs, like their coronal counterparts, tend to be wider during solar maximum. Our results confirm previous coronagraph analyses suggesting that CME launch sites don't simply migrate to higher latitudes with increasing solar activity. At solar minimum, CMEs tend to be launched from equatorial latitudes while, at maximum, CMEs appear to be launched over a much wider latitude range; this has implications for understanding the CME/solar source association. Our analysis provides some supporting evidence for the systematic dragging of CMEs to lower latitude as they propagate outwards.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

A propagation tool to connect remote-sensing observations with in-situ measurements of heliospheric structures

The remoteness of the Sun and the harsh conditions prevailing in the solar corona have so far limited the observational data used in the study of solar physics to remote-sensing observations taken either from the ground or from space. In contrast, the `solar wind laboratory' is directly measured in situ by a fleet of spacecraft measuring the properties of the plasma and magnetic fields at specific points in space. Since 2007, the solar-terrestrial relations observatory (STEREO) has been providing images of the solar wind that flows between the solar corona and spacecraft making in-situ measurements. This has allowed scientists to directly connect processes imaged near the Sun with the subsequent effects measured in the solar wind. This new capability prompted the development of a series of tools and techniques to track heliospheric structures through space. This article presents one of these tools, a web-based interface called the 'Propagation Tool' that offers an integrated research environment to study the evolution of coronal and solar wind structures, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). These structures can be propagated from the Sun outwards to or alternatively inwards from planets and spacecraft situated in the inner and outer heliosphere. In this paper, we present the global architecture of the tool, discuss some of the assumptions made to simulate the evolution of the structures and show how the tool connects to different databases.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Automated Detection of Coronal Mass Ejections in STEREO Heliospheric Imager data

We have performed, for the first time, the successful automated detection of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in data from the inner heliospheric imager (HI-1) cameras on the STEREO A spacecraft. Detection of CMEs is done in time-height maps based on the application of the Hough transform, using a modified version of the CACTus software package, conventionally applied to coronagraph data. In this paper we describe the method of detection. We present the result of the application of the technique to a few CMEs that are well detected in the HI-1 imagery, and compare these results with those based on manual cataloging methodologies. We discuss in detail the advantages and disadvantages of this method.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Long-Term Tracking of Corotating Density Structures using Heliospheric Imaging

The systematic monitoring of the solar wind in high-cadence and high-resolution heliospheric images taken by the Solar-Terrestrial Relation Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft permits the study of the spatial and temporal evolution of variable solar wind flows from the Sun out to 1~AU, and beyond. As part of the EU Framework 7 (FP7) Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) project, we have generated a catalogue listing the properties of 190 corotating structures well-observed in images taken by the Heliospheric Imager instruments on-board STEREO-A. We present here one of very few long-term analyses of solar wind structures advected by the background solar wind. This analysis confirms that most of the corotating density structures detected by the heliospheric imagers comprises a series of density inhomogeneities advected by the slow solar wind that eventually become entrained by stream interaction regions. We have derived the spatial-temporal evolution of each of these corotating density structures by using a well-established fitting technique. The mean radial propagation speed of the corotating structures is found to be $311 \pm 31$ km~s$^{-1}$. We predicted the arrival time of each corotating density structure at different probes. We show that the speeds of the corotating density structures derived using our fitting technique track well the long-term variation of the radial speed of the slow solar wind during solar minimum years (2007--2008). Furthermore, we demonstrate that these features originate near the coronal neutral line that eventually becomes the heliospheric current sheet.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Combined Multipoint Remote and In Situ Observations of the Asymmetric Evolution of a Fast Solar Coronal Mass Ejection

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the ejection. Using the white-light heliospheric imagery from STEREO-A and B, we derived two different kinematical profiles for the CME by applying the novel constrained self-similar expansion method. In addition, we used a drag-based model to investigate the influence of the ambient solar wind on the CME's propagation. We found that two preceding CMEs heading in different directions disturbed the overall shape of the CME and influenced its propagation behavior. While the Venus-directed segment underwent a gradual deceleration (from ~2700 km/s at 15 R_sun to ~1500 km/s at 154 R_sun), the Earth-directed part showed an abrupt retardation below 35 R_sun (from ~1700 to ~900 km/s). After that, it was propagating with a quasi-constant speed in the wake of a preceding event. Our results highlight the importance of studies concerning the unequal evolution of CMEs. Forecasting can only be improved if conditions in the solar wind are properly taken into account and if attention is also paid to large events preceding the one being studied.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 \: km \: s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 \pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 \pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$Φ$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 \pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 \pm 288 \: km \: s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 \pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 \pm 50 \: km \: s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Multi-point shock and flux rope analysis of multiple interplanetary coronal mass ejections around 2010 August 1 in the inner heliosphere

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory/ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory) monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degree in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE and ARTEMIS near Earth, and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (~ -100 nT), caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

The Deflection of the Two Interacting Coronal Mass Ejections of 2010 May 23-24 as Revealed by Combined In situ Measurements and Heliospheric Imaging

In 2010 May 23-24, SDO observed the launch of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which were subsequently tracked by the SECCHI suite onboard STEREO. Using the COR2 coronagraphs and the heliospheric imagers (HIs), the initial direction of both CMEs is determined to be slightly west of the Sun-Earth line. We derive the CME kinematics, including the evolution of the CME expansion until 0.4 AU. We find that, during the interaction, the second CME decelerates from a speed above 500 km/s to 380 km/s the speed of the leading edge of the first CME. STEREO observes a complex structure composed of two different bright tracks in HI2-A but only one bright track in HI2-B. In situ measurements from Wind show an "isolated" ICME, with the geometry of a flux rope preceded by a shock. Measurements in the sheath are consistent with draping around the transient. By combining remote-sensing and in situ measurements, we determine that this event shows a clear instance of deflection of two CMEs after their collision, and we estimate the deflection of the first CME to be about 10 degrees towards the Sun-Earth line. The arrival time, arrival speed and radius at Earth of the first CME are best predicted from remote-sensing observations taken before the collision of the CMEs. Due to the over-expansion of the CME after the collision, there are few, if any, signs of interaction in in situ measurements. This study illustrates that complex interactions during the Sun-to-Earth propagation may not be revealed by in situ measurements alone.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2012

Effects of Thomson-Scattering Geometry on White-Light Imaging of an Interplanetary Shock: Synthetic Observations from Forward Magnetohydrodynamic Modelling

Stereoscopic white-light imaging of a large portion of the inner heliosphere has been used to track interplanetary coronal mass ejections. At large elongations from the Sun, the white-light brightness depends on both the local electron density and the efficiency of the Thomson-scattering process. To quantify the effects of the Thomson-scattering geometry, we study an interplanetary shock using forward magnetohydrodynamic simulation and synthetic white-light imaging. Identifiable as an inclined streak of enhanced brightness in a time-elongation map, the travelling shock can be readily imaged by an observer located within a wide range of longitudes in the ecliptic. Different parts of the shock front contribute to the imaged brightness pattern viewed by observers at different longitudes. Moreover, even for an observer located at a fixed longitude, a different part of the shock front will contribute to the imaged brightness at any given time. The observed brightness within each imaging pixel results from a weighted integral along its corresponding ray-path. It is possible to infer the longitudinal location of the shock from the brightness pattern in an optical sky map, based on the east-west asymmetry in its brightness and degree of polarization. Therefore, measurement of the interplanetary polarized brightness could significantly reduce the ambiguity in performing three-dimensional reconstruction of local electron density from white-light imaging.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2011

The distribution of interplanetary dust between 0.96 and 1.04 AU as inferred from impacts on the STEREO spacecraft observed by the Heliospheric Imagers

The distribution of dust in the ecliptic plane between 0.96 and 1.04 AU has been inferred from impacts on the two STEREO spacecraft through observation of secondary particle trails and unexpected off-points in the Heliospheric Imager (HI) cameras. This study made use of analysis carried out by members of a distributed web-based project, Solar Stormwatch. A comparison between observations of the brightest particle trails and a survey of fainter trails shows consistent distributions. While there is no obvious correlation between this distribution and the occurrence of individual meteor streams at Earth, there are some broad longitudinal features in these distributions that are also observed in sources of the sporadic meteor population. The asymmetry in the number of trails seen by each spacecraft and the fact that there are many more unexpected off-points in the HI-B than in HI-A, indicates that the majority of impacts are coming from the apex direction. For impacts causing off-points in the HI-B camera these dust particles are estimated to have masses in excess of 10-17 kg with radii exceeding 0.1 μm. For off-points observed in the HI-A images, which can only have been caused by particles travelling from the anti-apex direction, the distribution is consistent with that of secondary 'storm' trails observed by HI-B, providing evidence that these trails also result from impacts with primary particles from an anti-apex source. It is apparent that the differential mass index of particles from the apex direction is consistently above 2. This indicates that the majority of the mass is within the smaller particles of this population. In contrast, the differential mass index of particles from the anti-apex direction (causing off-points in HI-A) is consistently below 2, indicating that the majority of the mass is to be found in larger particles of this distribution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2011

Arrival time calculation for interplanetary coronal mass ejections with circular fronts and application to STEREO observations of the 2009 February 13 eruption

A goal of the NASA STEREO mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape (Fixed-Φ(FP): a point and harmonic Mean (HM): a circle). These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumptions of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km/s) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hours than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hours for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case the ICME has to be tracked to > 30° elongation to get arrival time errors < 5 hours. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry.

astro-ph.SR↗