arXiv subjects

J. D. Scargle

Publications and source records attributed to J. D. Scargle.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

A Search for Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidates in 46-Year Radio Light Curves of 83 Blazars

The combined University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory (UMRAO) and Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) blazar monitoring programs at 14.5/15 GHz provide uninterrupted light curves of $\sim~46-50$ yr duration for 83 blazars, selected from amongst the brightest and most rapidly flaring blazars north of declination $-20^\circ$. In a search for supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates, we carried out tests for periodic variability using generalized Lomb-Scargle (GLS), weighted wavelet-Z (WWZ), and sine-wave fitting (SWF) analyses of this sample. We used simulations to test the effects of the power law spectrum of the power spectral density (PSD) on our findings, and show that the irregular sampling in the observed light curves has very little effect on the GLS spectra. Apparent periodicities and putative harmonics appear in all 83 of the GLS spectra of the blazars in our sample. We tested the reality of these apparent periodicities and harmonics with simulations, and found that in the overwhelming majority of cases they are due to the steep slope of the PSD, and should therefore be treated with great caution. We find one new SMBHB candidate: PKS 1309+1154, which exhibits a 17.9 year periodicity. The fraction of SMBHB candidates in our sample is $2.4_{-0.8}^{+3.2}\%$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

False periodicities in quasar time-domain surveys

There have recently been several reports of apparently periodic variations in the light curves of quasars, e.g. PG 1302-102 by Graham et al. (2015a). Any quasar showing periodic oscillations in brightness would be a strong candidate to be a close binary supermassive black hole and, in turn, a candidate for gravitational wave studies. However, normal quasars -- powered by accretion onto a single, supermassive black hole -- usually show stochastic variability over a wide range of timescales. It is therefore important to carefully assess the methods for identifying periodic candidates from among a population dominated by stochastic variability. Using a Bayesian analysis of the light curve of PG 1302-102, we find that a simple stochastic process is preferred over a sinusoidal variations. We then discuss some of the problems one encounters when searching for rare, strictly periodic signals among a large number of irregularly sampled, stochastic time series, and use simulations of quasar light curves to illustrate these points. From a few thousand simulations of steep spectrum (`red noise') stochastic processes, we find many simulations that display few-cycle periodicity like that seen in PG 1302-102. We emphasise the importance of calibrating the false positive rate when the number of targets in a search is very large.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

Concerning the variability of beta-decay measurements

Many experiments have been carried out to study the beta-decay rates of a variety of nuclides, and many - but not all - of these experiments yield evidence of variability of these rates. While there is as yet no accepted theory to explain patterns in the results, a number of conjectures have been proposed. We discuss three prominent conjectures (which are not mutually exclusive) - that variability of beta-decay rates may be due to (a) environmental influences, (b) solar neutrinos, and (c) cosmic neutrinos. We find evidence in support of each of these conjectures.

nucl-ex↗

arXiv2015

Gamma-ray flare activity from PSR B1259-63 during 2014 periastron passage and comparison to its 2010 passage

PSR B1259-63/LS 2883 is a gamma-ray binary system containing a radio pulsar in a highly elliptical ~3.4-year orbit around a Be star. In its 2010 periastron passage, multiwavelength emission from radio to TeV was observed, as well as an unexpected GeV flare measured by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). Here, we report the results of LAT monitoring of PSR B1259-63 during its most recent 2014 periastron passage. We compare the gamma-ray behavior in this periastron with the former in 2010 and find that PSR B1259-63 shows a recurrent GeV flare. The similarities and differences in the phenomenology of both periastron passages are discussed.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2015

Indications of r-mode Oscillations in SOHO/MDI Solar Radius Measurements

Analysis of solar radius measurements acquired by the Michelson Doppler Imager on the SOHO spacecraft supports previously reported evidence of solar internal r-mode oscillations in Mt Wilson radius data and in nuclear-decay data acquired at the Lomonosov Moscow State University. The frequencies of these oscillations are compatible with oscillations in a putative inner tachocline that separates a slowly rotating core from the radiative envelope.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Fermi-LAT Detection of a Hard Spectrum Flare from the Gravitationally Lensed Blazar B0218+357

The Fermi-LAT has observed new gamma-ray flares from the blazar B0218+357 during July 2014. While no significant change in the gamma-ray spectrum has been previously observed through the flaring phase in late-2012, during this recent high activity the source displayed an exceptionally hard spectrum. The latter led to the detection of very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) gamma-rays from B0218+357 by the MAGIC telescopes, establishing this source as the most distant TeV emitter known to date. In addition to the detection of VHE emission, this blazar is of particular interest since it is known to be a double-image gravitationally lensed system with a lens delay of 11.46 +/- 0.16 days measured in gamma-rays. We present the Fermi-LAT study of the July 2014 flares and discuss them in the context of previous measurements.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2014

Fermi-LAT Detection of Gravitational Lens Delayed Gamma-ray Flares from Blazar B0218+357

Using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), we report the first clear gamma-ray measurement of a delay between flares from the gravitationally lensed images of a blazar. The delay was detected in B0218+357, a known double-image lensed system, during a period of enhanced gamma-ray activity with peak fluxes consistently observed to reach >20-50 times its previous average flux. An auto-correlation function analysis identified a delay in the gamma-ray data of 11.46 +/- 0.16 days (1 sigma) that is ~1 day greater than previous radio measurements. Considering that it is beyond the capabilities of the LAT to spatially resolve the two images, we nevertheless decomposed individual sequences of superposing gamma-ray flares/delayed emissions. In three such ~8-10 day-long sequences within a ~4-month span, considering confusion due to overlapping flaring emission and flux measurement uncertainties, we found flux ratios consistent with ~1, thus systematically smaller than those from radio observations. During the first, best-defined flare, the delayed emission was detailed with a Fermi pointing, and we observed flux doubling timescales of ~3-6 hrs implying as well extremely compact gamma-ray emitting regions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2012

Fermi LAT Search for Dark Matter in Gamma-ray Lines and the Inclusive Photon Spectrum

Dark matter particle annihilation or decay can produce monochromatic gamma-ray lines and contribute to the diffuse gamma-ray background. Flux upper limits are presented for gamma-ray spectral lines from 7 to 200 GeV and for the diffuse gamma-ray background from 4.8 GeV to 264 GeV obtained from two years of Fermi Large Area Telescope data integrated over most of the sky. We give cross section upper limits and decay lifetime lower limits for dark matter models that produce gamma-ray lines or contribute to the diffuse spectrum, including models proposed as explanations of the PAMELA and Fermi cosmic-ray data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2012

Gamma-ray Activity in the Crab Nebula: The Exceptional Flare of April 2011

The Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi satellite observed a gamma-ray flare in the Crab nebula lasting for approximately nine days in April of 2011. The source, which at optical wavelengths has a size of ~11 ly across, doubled its gamma-ray flux within eight hours. The peak photon flux was (186 +- 6) 10-7 cm-2 s-1 above 100 MeV, which corresponds to a 30-fold increase compared to the average value. During the flare, a new component emerged in the spectral energy distribution, which peaked at an energy of (375 +- 26) MeV at flare maximum. The observations imply that the emission region was likely relativistically beamed toward us and that variations in its motion are responsible for the observed spectral variability.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2009

Prospects for GRB Science with the Fermi Large Area Telescope

The LAT instrument on the Fermi mission will reveal the rich spectral and temporal gamma-ray burst phenomena in the > 100 MeV band. The synergy with Fermi's GBM detectors will link these observations to those in the well explored 10-1000 keV range; the addition of the > 100 MeV band observations will resolve theoretical uncertainties about burst emission in both the prompt and afterglow phases. Trigger algorithms will be applied to the LAT data both onboard the spacecraft and on the ground. The sensitivity of these triggers will differ because of the available computing resources onboard and on the ground. Here we present the LAT's burst detection methodologies and the instrument's GRB capabilities.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2009

A Bayesian Assessment of P-Values for Significance Estimation of Power Spectra and an Alternative Procedure, with Application to Solar Neutrino Data

The usual procedure for estimating the significance of a peak in a power spectrum is to calculate the probability of obtaining that value or a larger value by chance (known as the "p-value"), on the assumption that the time series contains only noise - typically that the measurements are derived from random samplings of a Gaussian distribution. We really need to know the probability that the time series is - or is not - compatible with the null hypothesis that the measurements are derived from noise. This probability can be calculated by Bayesian analysis, but this requires one to specify and evaluate a second hypothesis, that the time series does contain a contribution other than noise. We approach the problem of identifying this function in two ways. We first propose three simple conditions that it seems reasonable to impose on this function, and show that these conditions may be satisfied by a simple function with one free parameter. We then define two different ways of combining information derived from two independent power estimates. We find that this consistency condition may be satisfied, to good approximation, by a special case of the previously proposed likelihood function. We find that the resulting significance estimates are considerably more conservative than those usually associated with the p-values. As two examples, we apply the new procedure to two recent analyses of solar neutrino data: (a) power spectrum analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, and (b) the combined analysis of radiochemical neutrino data and irradiance data.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2006

Power-spectrum analysis of Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data, taking into account asymmetry in the error estimates

The purpose of this article is to carry out a power-spectrum analysis (based on likelihood methods) of the Super-Kamiokande 5-day dataset that takes account of the asymmetry in the error estimates. Whereas the likelihood analysis involves a linear optimization procedure for symmetrical error estimates, it involves a nonlinear optimization procedure for asymmetrical error estimates. We find that for most frequencies there is little difference between the power spectra derived from analyses of symmetrized error estimates and from asymmetrical error estimates. However, this proves not to be the case for the principal peak in the power spectra, which is found at 9.43 yr-1. A likelihood analysis which allows for a "floating offset" and takes account of the start time and end time of each bin and of the flux estimate and the symmetrized error estimate leads to a power of 11.24 for this peak. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that there is a chance of only 1% of finding a peak this big or bigger in the frequency band 1 - 36 yr-1 (the widest band that avoids artificial peaks). On the other hand, an analysis that takes account of the error asymmetry leads to a peak with power 13.24 at that frequency. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that there is a chance of only 0.1% of finding a peak this big or bigger in that frequency band 1 - 36 yr-1. From this perspective, power spectrum analysis that takes account of asymmetry of the error estimates gives evidence for variability that is significant at the 99.9% level. We comment briefly on an apparent discrepancy between power spectrum analyses of the Super-Kamiokande and SNO solar neutrino experiments.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2006

Comparative analysis of Gallex and GNO solar neutrino data

Since the GALLEX and GNO datasets were derived from closely related experiments, there is a natural tendency to merge them. This is perhaps appropriate for any analysis based on the hypothesis that the solar neutrino flux is constant, but it is not necessarily appropriate for an analysis that allows for possible variability, since the GALLEX and GNO experiments belong to different solar cycles. Moreover, we find significant differences between the GALLEX and GNO datasets. It appears, from inspection of the time series and histograms, that GNO measurements are compatible with the assumption that the solar neutrino flux is constant, but GALLEX measurements are not. Furthermore, power-spectrum analysis yields evidence of rotational modulation in GALLEX data but not in GNO data. We compare our results with those of Pandola, who claims that GALLEX-GNO data show no evidence for variability.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2005

Power-Spectrum Analyses of Super-Kamiokande Solar Neutrino Data: Variability and its Implications for Solar Physics and Neutrino Physics

There have been conflicting claims as to whether or not power-spectrum analysis of the Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data yields evidence of variability. Comparison of these claims is complicated by the fact that the relevant articles may use different datasets, different methods of analysis, and different procedures for significance estimation. The purpose of this article is to clarify the role of power spectrum analysis. To this end, we analyze only the Super-Kamiokande 5-day dataset, and we use a standard procedure for significance estimation proposed by the Super-Kamiokande collaboration. We then analyze this dataset, with this method of significance estimation, using six methods of power spectrum analysis. We find that the significance of the principal peak in the power spectrum (that at 9.43 yr-1with a depth of modulation of 7%) shows a clear correlation with the amount and relevance of the information being processed, as would be expected if there were a real signal in the data. The significance level reaches 99.3% for one method of analysis. We discuss, in terms of sub-dominant processes, possible neutrino-physics interpretations of the apparent variability of the Super-Kamiokande measurements, and we suggest steps that could be taken to resolve the question of variability of the solar neutrino flux.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2005

Preliminary results of the analysis of the BATSE TTE data

The Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) observed many types of data and one of them is the time-tagged photon events (TTE data). We use the Bayesian block analysis, using Bayesian statistics, analyses the TTE data. Our results; calculations of duration (T100), count rates (burst photon numbers in different channels) and count peaks (in 64, 16 and 4 ms). We present the duration, the peak duration and the distance between peaks distributions. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been also applied. The PCA shows interesting results, such as channel 4 (highest energy channel) probably is very important.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2005

Long-lag, Wide-Pulse Gamma-Ray Bursts

Currently, the best available probe of the early phase of gamma-ray burst (GRB) jet attributes is the prompt gamma-ray emission, in which several intrinsic and extrinsic variables determine GRB pulse evolution. Bright, usually complex bursts have many narrow pulses that are difficult to model due to overlap. However, the relatively simple, long spectral lag, wide-pulse bursts may have simpler physics and are easier to model. In this work we analyze the temporal and spectral behavior of wide pulses in 24 long-lag bursts, using a pulse model with two shape parameters -- width and asymmetry -- and the Band spectral model with three shape parameters. We find that pulses in long-lag bursts are distinguished both temporally and spectrally from those in bright bursts: the pulses in long spectral lag bursts are few in number, and ~ 100 times wider (10s of seconds), have systematically lower peaks in nu*F(nu), harder low-energy spectra and softer high-energy spectra. We find that these five pulse descriptors are essentially uncorrelated for our long-lag sample, suggesting that at least five parameters are needed to model burst temporal and spectral behavior. However, pulse width is strongly correlated with spectral lag; hence these two parameters may be viewed as mutual surrogates. We infer that accurate formulations for estimating GRB luminosity and total energy will depend on several gamma-ray attributes, at least for long-lag bursts. The prevalence of long-lag bursts near the BATSE trigger threshold, their predominantly low nF(n) spectral peaks, and relatively steep upper power-law spectral indices indicate that Swift will detect many such bursts.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2005

Combined and Comparative Analysis of Power Spectra

In solar physics, especially in exploratory stages of research, it is often necessary to compare the power spectra of two or more time series. One may, for instance, wish to estimate what the power spectrum of the combined data sets might have been, or one may wish to estimate the significance of a particular peak that shows up in two or more power spectra. One may also on occasion need to search for a complex of peaks in a single power spectrum, such as a fundamental and one or more harmonics, or a fundamental plus sidebands, etc. Visual inspection can be revealing, but it can also be misleading. This leads one to look for one or more ways of forming statistics, which readily lend themselves to significance estimation, from two or more power spectra. We derive formulas for statistics formed from the sum, the minimum, and the product of two or more power spectra. A distinguishing feature of our formulae is that, if each power spectrum has an exponential distribution, each statistic also has an exponential distribution.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Comment on "Search for periodic modulations of the solar neutrino flux in Super-Kamiokande" by J. Yoo et al

We comment on a recent article by Yoo et al. that presents an analysis of Super-Kamiokande 10-day and 5-day data, correcting certain errors in that article. We also point out that, in using the Lomb-Scargle method of power spectrum analysis, Yoo et al. ignore much of the relevant data. A likelihood analysis, that can take account of all of the relevant data, yields evidence indicative of modulation by solar processes.

hep-ph↗