arXiv subjects

J. P. Marshall

Publications and source records attributed to J. P. Marshall.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2015

Towards a dynamics-based estimate of the extent of HR 8799's unresolved warm debris belt

In many ways, the HR8799 system resembles our Solar system more closely than any other discovered to date - albeit on a larger, younger, and more dramatic scale - featuring four giant planets and two debris belts. The first belt lies beyond the orbit of the outer planet, and mirrors our Solar system's Edgeworth-Kuiper belt. The second belt lies interior to the orbit of the inner planet, HR8799e, and is analogous to our Asteroid Belt. With such a similar architecture, the system is a valuable laboratory for examining exoplanet dynamics, and the interaction between debris disks and planets. In recent years, HR8799's outer disk has been relatively well characterised, primarily using the Herschel Space Observatory. In contrast, the inner disk, too close to HR8799 to be spatially resolved by Herschel, remains poorly understood. This leaves significant questions over both the location of the planetesimals responsible for producing the observed dust, and the physical properties of those grains. We have performed extensive simulations of HR8799's inner, unresolved debris belt, using UNSW Australia's supercomputing facility, Katana. Here, we present the results of integrations following the evolution of a belt of dynamically hot debris interior to the orbit of HR8799e, for a period of 60 Myr, using an initial population of 500,000 massless test particles. These simulations have enable the characterisation of the extent and structure of the inner belt, revealing that its outer edge must lie interior to the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with HR8799, at approximately 7.5au, and highlighting the presence of fine structure analogous to the Solar system's Kirkwood gaps. In the future, out results will allow us to calculate a first estimate of the small-body impact rate and water delivery prospects for any potential terrestrial planet(s) that might lurk, undetected, in the inner system.

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arXiv2015

Does the presence of planets affect the frequency and properties of extrasolar Kuiper Belts? Results from the Herschel DEBRIS and DUNES surveys

The study of the planet-debris disk connection can shed light on the formation and evolution of planetary systems, and may help predict the presence of planets around stars with certain disk characteristics. In preliminary analyses of the Herschel DEBRIS and DUNES surveys, Wyatt et al. (2012) and Marshall et al. (2014) identified a tentative correlation between debris and low-mass planets. Here we use the cleanest possible sample out these surveys to assess the presence of such a correlation, discarding stars without known ages, with ages < 1 Gyr and with binary companions <100 AU, to rule out possible correlations due to effects other than planet presence. In our sample of 204 FGK stars, we do not find evidence that debris disks are more common or more dusty around stars harboring high-mass or low-mass planets compared to a control sample without identified planets, nor that debris disks are more or less common (or more or less dusty) around stars harboring multiple planets compared to single-planet systems. Diverse dynamical histories may account for the lack of correlations. The data show the correlation between the presence of high-mass planets and stellar metallicity, but no correlation between the presence of low-mass planets or debris and stellar metallicity. Comparing the observed cumulative distribution of fractional luminosity to those expected from a Gaussian distribution, we find that a distribution centered on the Solar system's value fits well the data, while one centered at 10 times this value can be rejected. This is of interest in the context of future terrestrial planet characterization because it indicates that there are good prospects for finding a large number of debris disk systems (i.e. with evidence of harboring the building blocks of planets) with exozodiacal emission low enough to be appropriate targets for an ATLAST-type mission to search for biosignatures.

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arXiv2014

ALMA observations of alpha Centauri: First detection of main-sequence stars at 3mm wavelength

The precise mechanisms that provide the non-radiative energy for heating the chromosphere and the corona of the Sun and those of other stars constitute an active field of research. By studying stellar chromospheres one aims at identifying the relevant physical processes. Defining the permittable extent of the parameter space can also serve as a template for the Sun-as-a-star. Earlier observations with Herschel and APEX have revealed the temperature minimum of alpha Cen, but these were unable to spatially resolve the binary into individual components. With the data reported here, we aim at remedying this shortcoming. Furthermore, these earlier data were limited to the wavelength region between 100 and 870mu. In the present context, we intend to extend the spectral mapping to longer wavelengths, where the contrast between stellar photospheric and chromospheric emission becomes increasingly evident. ALMA is particularly suited to point sources, such as unresolved stars. ALMA provides the means to achieve our objectives with both its high sensitivity of the collecting area for the detection of weak signals and the high spatial resolving power of its adaptable interferometer for imaging close multiple stars. This is the first detection of main-sequence stars at a wavelength of 3mm. Furthermore, the individual components of the binary alpha CenAB are clearly detected and spatially well resolved at all ALMA wavelengths. The high S/N of these data permit accurate determination of their relative flux ratios. The previously obtained flux ratio of 0.44, which was based on measurements in the optical and at 70mu, is consistent with the present ALMA results, albeit with a large error bar. Given the distinct difference in their cyclic activity, the similarity of their submm SEDs appears surprising.

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arXiv2014

GJ 832c: A super-earth in the habitable zone

We report the detection of GJ 832c, a super-Earth orbiting near the inner edge of the habitable zone of GJ 832, an M dwarf previously known to host a Jupiter analog in a nearly-circular 9.4-year orbit. The combination of precise radial-velocity measurements from three telescopes reveals the presence of a planet with a period of 35.68+/-0.03 days and minimum mass (m sin i) of 5.4+/-1.0 Earth masses. GJ 832c moves on a low-eccentricity orbit (e=0.18+/-0.13) towards the inner edge of the habitable zone. However, given the large mass of the planet, it seems likely that it would possess a massive atmosphere, which may well render the planet inhospitable. Indeed, it is perhaps more likely that GJ 832c is a "super-Venus," featuring significant greenhouse forcing. With an outer giant planet and an interior, potentially rocky planet, the GJ 832 planetary system can be thought of as a miniature version of our own Solar system.

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arXiv2014

Collisional modelling of the debris disc around HIP 17439

We present an analysis of the debris disc around the nearby K2 V star HIP 17439. In the context of the Herschel DUNES key programme the disc was observed and spatially resolved in the far-IR with the Herschel PACS and SPIRE instruments. In a first model, Ertel et al. (2014) assumed the size and radial distribution of the circumstellar dust to be independent power laws. There, by exploring a very broad range of possible model parameters several scenarios capable of explaining the observations were suggested. In this paper, we perform a follow-up in-depth collisional modelling of these scenarios trying to further distinguish between them. In our models we consider collisions, direct radiation pressure, and drag forces, i.e. the actual physical processes operating in debris discs. We find that all scenarios discussed in Ertel et al. are physically sensible and can reproduce the observed SED along with the PACS surface brightness profiles reasonably well. In one model, the dust is produced beyond 120au in a narrow planetesimal belt and is transported inwards by Poynting-Robertson and stellar wind drag. A good agreement with the observed radial profiles would require stellar winds by about an order of magnitude stronger than the solar value, which is not supported, although not ruled out, by observations. Another model consists of two spatially separated planetesimal belts, a warm inner and a cold outer one. This scenario would probably imply the presence of planets clearing the gap between the two components. Finally, we show qualitatively that the observations can be explained by assuming the dust is produced in a single, but broad planetesimal disc with a surface density of solids rising outwards, as expected for an extended disc that experiences a natural inside-out collisional depletion. Prospects of discriminating between the competing scenarios by future observations are discussed.

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arXiv2014

Correlations between the stellar, planetary and debris components of exoplanet systems observed by $\textit{Herschel}$

The $\textit{Herschel}$ DEBRIS, DUNES and GT programmes observed 37 exoplanet host stars within 25 pc at 70, 100 and 160 $μ$m with the sensitivity to detect far-infrared excess emission at flux density levels only an order of magnitude greater than that of the Solar system's Edgeworth-Kuiper belt. Here we present an analysis of that sample, using it to more accurately determine the (possible) level of dust emission from these exoplanet host stars and thereafter determine the links between the various components of these exoplanetary systems through statistical analysis. We have fitted the flux densities measured from recent \textit{Herschel} observations with a simple two parameter ($T_{d}$, $L_{\rm IR}/L_{\star}$) black body model (or to the 3-$σ$ upper limits at 100 $μ$m). From this uniform approach we calculate the fractional luminosity, radial extent, dust temperature and disc mass. We then plotted the calculated dust luminosity or upper limits against the stellar properties, e.g. effective temperature, metallicity, age, and identified correlations between these parameters. A total of eleven debris discs are identified around the 37 stars in the sample. An incidence of ten cool debris discs around the Sun-like exoplanet host stars (29 $\pm$ 9 %) is consistent with the detection rate found by DUNES (20.2 $\pm$ 2.0 %). For the debris disc systems, the dust temperatures range from 20 to 80 K, and fractional luminosities ($L_{\rm IR}/L_{\star}$) between 2.4 $\times$10$^{-6}$ and 4.1 $\times$10$^{-4}$. In the case of non-detections, we calculated typical 3-$σ$ upper limits to the dust fractional luminosities of a few $\times10^{-6}$. We recover the previously identified correlation between stellar metallicity and hot Jupiter planets in our data set. We find a correlation between the increased presence of dust, lower planet masses and lower stellar metallicities. (abridged)

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arXiv2014

How dusty is alpha Centauri? Excess or non-excess over the infrared photospheres of main-sequence stars

[Abridged] Debris discs around main-sequence stars indicate the presence of larger rocky bodies. The components of the nearby binary aCentauri have higher than solar metallicities, which is thought to promote giant planet formation. We aim to determine the level of emission from debris in the aCen system. Having already detected the temperature minimum, Tmin, of aCenA, we here attempt to do so also for the companion aCenB. Using the aCen stars as templates, we study possible effects Tmin may have on the detectability of unresolved dust discs around other stars. We use Herschel and APEX photometry to determine the stellar spectral energy distributions. In addition, we use APEX for spectral line mapping to study the complex background around aCen seen in the photometric images. Models of stellar atmospheres and discs are used to estimate the amount of debris around these stars. For solar-type stars, a fractional dust luminosity fd 2e-7 could account for SEDs that do not exhibit the Tmin-effect. Slight excesses at the 2.5 sigma level are observed at 24 mu for both stars, which, if interpreted to be due to dust, would correspond to fd (1-3)e-5. Dynamical disc modelling leads to rough mass estimates of the putative Zodi belts around the aCen stars, viz. <~4e-6 MMoon of 4 to 1000 mu size grains, distributed according to n a^-3.5. Similarly, for filled-in Tmin emission, corresponding EKBs could account for ~1e-3 MMoon of dust. Light scattered and/or thermally emitted by exo-Zodi discs will have profound implications for future spectroscopic missions designed to search for biomarkers in the atmospheres of Earth-like planets. The F-IR SED of aCenB is marginally consistent with the presence of a minimum temperature region in the upper atmosphere. We also show that an aCenA-like temperature minimum may result in an erroneous apprehension about the presence of dust around other stars.

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arXiv2013

Potential multi-component structure of the debris disk around HIP 17439 revealed by Herschel/DUNES

[abridged] Aims. Our Herschel Open Time Key Programme DUNES aims at detecting and characterizing debris disks around nearby, sun-like stars. In addition to the statistical analysis of the data, the detailed study of single objects through spatially resolving the disk and detailed modeling of the data is a main goal of the project. Methods. We obtained the first observations spatially resolving the debris disk around the sun-like star HIP 17439 (HD23484) using the instruments PACS and SPIRE on board the Herschel Space Observatory. Simultaneous multi-wavelength modeling of these data together with ancillary data from the literature is presented. Results. A standard single component disk model fails to reproduce the major axis radial profiles at 70 um, 100 um, and 160 um simultaneously. Moreover, the best-fit parameters derived from such a model suggest a very broad disk extending from few au up to few hundreds of au from the star with a nearly constant surface density which seems physically unlikely. However, the constraints from both the data and our limited theoretical investigation are not strong enough to completely rule out this model. An alternative, more plausible, and better fitting model of the system consists of two rings of dust at approx. 30 au and 90 au, respectively, while the constraints on the parameters of this model are weak due to its complexity and intrinsic degeneracies. Conclusions. The disk is probably composed of at least two components with different spatial locations (but not necessarily detached), while a single, broad disk is possible, but less likely. The two spatially well-separated rings of dust in our best-fit model suggest the presence of at least one high mass planet or several low-mass planets clearing the region between the two rings from planetesimals and dust.

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arXiv2013

Can eccentric debris disks be long-lived? A first numerical investigation and application to $ζ^2$ Reticuli

Imaging of debris disks has found evidence for both eccentric and offset disks. One hypothesis is that these provide evidence for massive perturbers that sculpt the observed structures. One such disk was recently observed in the far-IR by the Herschel Space Observatory around $ζ^2$ Ret. In contrast with previously reported systems, the disk is significantly eccentric, and the system is Gyr-old. We aim to investigate the long-term evolution of eccentric structures in debris disks caused by a perturber on an eccentric orbit. Both analytical predictions and numerical N-body simulations are used to investigate the observable structures that could be produced by eccentric perturbers. The long-term evolution of the disk geometry is examined, with particular application to the $ζ^2$ Ret system. In addition, synthetic images of the disk are produced for comparison with Herschel observations. We show that an eccentric companion can produce both the observed offsets and eccentric disks. Such effects are not immediate and we characterise the timescale required for the disk to develop to an eccentric state. For the case of $ζ^2$ Ret, we place limits on the mass and orbit of the companion required to produce the observations. Synthetic images show that the pattern observed around $ζ^2$ Ret can be produced by an eccentric disk seen close to edge-on, and allow us to bring additional constraints on the disk parameters of our model (disk flux, extent). We determine that eccentric planets or stellar companions can induce long-lived eccentric structures in debris disks. Observations of such eccentric structures provide potential evidence of the presence of such a companion in a planetary system. We consider the example of $ζ^2$ Ret, whose observed eccentric disk can be explained by a distant companion at tens of AU, on an eccentric orbit ($e_p\gtrsim 0.3$).

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arXiv2013

Alignment in star-debris disc systems seen by Herschel

Many nearby main-sequence stars have been searched for debris using the far-infrared Herschel satellite, within the DEBRIS, DUNES and Guaranteed-Time Key Projects. We discuss here 11 stars of spectral types A to M where the stellar inclination is known and can be compared to that of the spatially-resolved dust belts. The discs are found to be well aligned with the stellar equators, as in the case of the Sun's Kuiper belt, and unlike many close-in planets seen in transit surveys. The ensemble of stars here can be fitted with a star-disc tilt of ~<10 degrees. These results suggest that proposed mechanisms for tilting the star or disc in fact operate rarely. A few systems also host imaged planets, whose orbits at tens of AU are aligned with the debris discs, contrary to what might be expected in models where external perturbers induce tilts.

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arXiv2013

Herschel's "Cold Debris Disks": Background Galaxies or Quiescent Rims of Planetary Systems?

(abridged) Infrared excesses associated with debris disk host stars detected so far peak at wavelengths around ~100μm or shorter. However, six out of 31 excess sources in the Herschel OTKP DUNES have been seen to show significant - and in some cases extended - excess emission at 160μm, which is larger than the 100μm excess. This excess emission has been suggested to stem from debris disks colder than those known previously. Using several methods, we re-consider whether some or even all of the candidates may be associated with unrelated galactic or extragalactic emission and conclude that it is highly unlikely that none of the candidates represents a true circumstellar disk. For true disks, both the dust temperatures inferred from the SEDs and the disk radii estimated from the images suggest that the dust is nearly as cold as a blackbody. This requires the grains to be larger than ~100μm, regardless of their material composition. To explain the dearth of small grains, we explore several conceivable scenarios: transport-dominated disks, disks of low dynamical excitation, and disks of unstirred primordial macroscopic grains. Our qualitative analysis and collisional simulations rule out the first two of these scenarios, but show the feasibility of the third one. We show that such disks can survive for gigayears, largely preserving the primordial size distribution. They should be composed of macroscopic solids larger than millimeters, but smaller than kilometers in size. Thus planetesimal formation, at least in the outer regions of the systems, has stopped before "cometary" or "asteroidal" sizes were reached.

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arXiv2013

DUst Around NEarby Stars. The survey observational results

Debris discs are a consequence of the planet formation process and constitute the fingerprints of planetesimal systems. Their solar system's counterparts are the asteroid and Edgeworth-Kuiper belts. The DUNES survey aims at detecting extra-solar analogues to the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt around solar-type stars, putting in this way the solar system into context. The survey allows us to address some questions related to the prevalence and properties of planetesimal systems. We used {\it Herschel}/PACS to observe a sample of nearby FGK stars. Data at 100 and 160 $μ$m were obtained, complemented in some cases with observations at 70 $μ$m, and at 250, 350 and 500 $μ$m using SPIRE. The observing strategy was to integrate as deep as possible at 100 $μ$m to detect the stellar photosphere. Debris discs have been detected at a fractional luminosity level down to several times that of the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt. The incidence rate of discs around the DUNES stars is increased from a rate of $\sim$ 12.1% $\pm$ 5% before \emph{Herschel} to $\sim$ 20.2% $\pm$ 2%. A significant fraction ($\sim$ 52%) of the discs are resolved, which represents an enormous step ahead from the previously known resolved discs. Some stars are associated with faint far-IR excesses attributed to a new class of cold discs. Although it cannot be excluded that these excesses are produced by coincidental alignment of background galaxies, statistical arguments suggest that at least some of them are true debris discs. Some discs display peculiar SEDs with spectral indexes in the 70-160$μ$m range steeper than the Rayleigh-Jeans one. An analysis of the debris disc parameters suggests that a decrease might exist of the mean black body radius from the F-type to the K-type stars. In addition, a weak trend is suggested for a correlation of disc sizes and an anticorrelation of disc temperatures with the stellar age.

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arXiv2012

$α$ Centauri A in the far infrared

Chromospheres and coronae are common phenomena on solar-type stars. Understanding the energy transfer to these heated atmospheric layers requires direct access to the relevant empirical data. Study of these structures has, by and large, been limited to the Sun thus far. The region of the temperature reversal can be directly observed only in the far infrared and submm. We aim at the determination of the characteristics of the atmosphere in the region of the temperature minimum of the solar sister star alpha Cen A. For the nearby binary system alpha Centauri, stellar parameters are known with high accuracy from measurements. For the basic model parameters Teff, log g and [Fe/H], we interpolate in the grid of GAIA/PHOENIX stellar model atmospheres and compute the corresponding model for the G2 V star alpha Cen A. Comparison with photometric measurements shows excellent agreement between observed photospheric data in the optical and infrared. For longer wavelengths, the modelled spectral energy distribution is compared to MIPS, PACS, SPIRE and LABOCA photometry. A specifically tailored Uppsala model based on the MARCS code and extending further in wavelength is used to gauge the emission characteristics of alpha Cen A in the FIR. Similar to the Sun, the FIR emission of alpha Cen A originates in the minimum temperature region above the stellar photosphere in the visible. However, in comparison with the solar case, the FIR photosphere of alpha Cen A appears marginally cooler, Tmin=T160mu=3920+/-375 K. Beyond the minimum near 160mu, the brightness temperatures increase and this radiation likely originates in warmer regions of the chromosphere of alpha Cen A. To the best of our knowledge this is the first time a temperature minimum has been directly measured on a main-sequence star other than the Sun.

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arXiv2012

A Dynamical Analysis of the Proposed Circumbinary HW Virginis Planetary System

In 2009, the discovery of two planets orbiting the evolved binary star system HW Virginis was announced, based on systematic variations in the timing of eclipses between the two stars. The planets invoked in that work were significantly more massive than Jupiter, and moved on orbits that were mutually crossing - an architecture which suggests that mutual encounters and strong gravitational interactions are almost guaranteed. In this work, we perform a highly detailed analysis of the proposed HW Vir planetary system. First, we consider the dynamical stability of the system as proposed in the discovery work. Through a mapping process involving 91,125 individual simulations, we find that the system is so unstable that the planets proposed simply cannot exist, due to mean lifetimes of less than a thousand years across the whole parameter space. We then present a detailed re-analysis of the observational data on HW Vir, deriving a new orbital solution that provides a very good fit to the observational data. Our new analysis yields a system with planets more widely spaced, and of lower mass, than that proposed in the discovery work, and yields a significantly greater (and more realistic) estimate of the uncertainty in the orbit of the outermost body. Despite this, a detailed dynamical analysis of this new solution similarly reveals that it also requires the planets to move on orbits that are simply not dynamically feasible. Our results imply that some mechanism other than the influence of planetary companions must be the principal cause of the observed eclipse timing variations for HW Vir. If the sys- tem does host exoplanets, they must move on orbits differing greatly from those previously proposed. Our results illustrate the critical importance of performing dynamical analyses as a part of the discovery process for multiple-planet exoplanetary systems.

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arXiv2012

A peculiar class of debris disks from Herschel/DUNES - A steep fall off in the far infrared

Aims. We present photometric data of debris disks around HIP 103389 (HD 199260), HIP 107350 (HN Peg, HD206860), and HIP 114948 (HD 219482), obtained in the context of our Herschel Open Time Key Program DUNES (DUst around NEarby Stars). Methods. We used Herschel/PACS to detect the thermal emission of the three debris disks with a 3 sigma sensitivity of a few mJy at 100 um and 160 um. In addition, we obtained Herschel/PACS photometric data at 70 um for HIP 103389. Two different approaches are applied to reduce the Herschel data to investigate the impact of data reduction on the photometry. We fit analytical models to the available spectral energy distribution (SED) data. Results. The SEDs of the three disks potentially exhibit an unusually steep decrease at wavelengths > 70 um. We investigate the significance of the peculiar shape of these SEDs and the impact on models of the disks provided it is real. Our modeling reveals that such a steep decrease of the SEDs in the long wavelength regime is inconsistent with a power-law exponent of the grain size distribution -3.5 expected from a standard equilibrium collisional cascade. In contrast, a very distinct range of grain sizes is implied to dominate the thermal emission of such disks. However, we demonstrate that the understanding of the data of faint sources obtained with Herschel is still incomplete and that the significance of our results depends on the version of the data reduction pipeline used. Conclusions. A new mechanism to produce the dust in the presented debris disks, deviations from the conditions required for a standard equilibrium collisional cascade (grain size exponent of -3.5), and/or significantly different dust properties would be necessary to explain the potentially steep SED shape of the three debris disks presented. (abridged)

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arXiv2011

Herschel discovery of a new class of cold, faint debris discs

We present Herschel PACS 100 and 160 micron observations of the solar-type stars alpha Men, HD 88230 and HD 210277, which form part of the FGK stars sample of the Herschel Open Time Key Programme (OTKP) DUNES (DUst around NEarby S tars). Our observations show small infrared excesses at 160 micron for all three stars. HD 210277 also shows a small excess at 100 micron, while the 100 micron fluxes of alpha Men and HD 88230 agree with the stellar photospheric predictions. We attribute these infrared excesses to a new class of cold, faint debris discs. alpha Men and HD 88230 are spatially resolved in the PACS 160 micron images, while HD 210277 is point-like at that wavelength. The projected linear sizes of the extended emission lie in the range from ~ 115 to ~ 250 AU. The estimated black body temperatures from the 100 and 160 micron fluxes are $\lesssim$ 22 K, while the fractional luminosity of the cold dust is Ldust/Lstar ~ 10E-6, close to the luminosity of the Solar-System's Kuiper belt. These debris discs are the coldest and faintest discs discovered so far around mature stars and cannot easily be explained by invoking "classical" debris disc models.

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arXiv2011

Revisiting the proposed planetary system orbiting the eclipsing polar HU Aquarii

It has recently been proposed, on the basis of eclipse-timing data, that the eclipsing polar cataclysmic variable HU Aquarii is host to at least two giant planets. However, that result has been called into question based upon the dynamical stability of the proposed planets. In this work, we present a detailed re-analysis of all eclipse timing data available for the HU Aquarii system, making use of standard techniques used to fit orbits to radial-velocity data. We find that the eclipse timings can be used to obtain a two-planet solution that does not require the presence of additional bodies within the system. We then perform a highly detailed dynamical analysis of the proposed planetary system. We show that the improved orbital parameters we have derived correspond to planets that are dynamically unstable on unfeasibly short timescales (of order 10^4 years or less). Given these results, we discuss briefly how the observed signal might in fact be the result of the intrinsic properties of the eclipsing polar, rather than being evidence of dynamically improbable planets. Taken in concert, our results highlight the need for caution in interpreting such timing variations as being planetary in nature.

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arXiv2011

A dynamical analysis of the proposed HU Aquarii planetary system

It has recently been suggested that the eclipsing polar HU Aquarii is host to at least two giant planets. We have performed highly detailed dynamical analysis of the orbits of those planets and show that the proposed system is highly unstable on timescales of < 5\times 10$^3$ years. For the coplanar orbits suggested in the discovery letter, we find stable orbital solutions for the planetary system only if the outer body moves on an orbit that brings it no closer to the host star than ~ 6 AU. The required periastron distance for the outer planet lies approximately 5 Hill radii beyond the orbit of the inner planet, and well beyond the 1-σ error bars placed on the orbit of the outer planet in the discovery letter. If the orbits of the proposed planets are significantly inclined with respect to one another, the median stability increases slightly, but such systems still become destabilised on astronomically minute timescales (typically within a few 10$^4$ years). Only in the highly improbable scenario where the outer planet follows a retrograde but coplanar orbit (i.e. inclined by 180 degrees to the orbit of the inner planet) is there any significant region of stability within the original 1-σ orbital uncertainties. Our results suggest that, if there is a second (and potentially, a third planet) in the HU Aquarii system, its orbit is dramatically different to that suggested in the discovery paper, and that more observations are critically required in order to constrain the nature of the suggested orbital bodies.

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