arXiv subjects

J. Pelt

Publications and source records attributed to J. Pelt.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2018

Estimating activity cycles with probabilistic methods II. The Mount Wilson Ca H&K data

Debate over the existence of branches in the stellar activity-rotation diagrams continues. Application of modern time series analysis tools to study the mean cycle periods in chromospheric activity index is lacking. We develop such models, based on Gaussian processes, for one-dimensional time series and apply it to the extended Mount Wilson Ca H&K sample. Our main aim is to study how the previously commonly used assumption of strict harmonicity of the stellar cycles as well as handling of the linear trends affects the results. We introduce three methods of different complexity, starting with the simple Bayesian harmonic model and followed by Gaussian Process models with periodic and quasi-periodic covariance functions. We confirm the existence of two populations in the activity-period diagram. We find only one significant trend in the inactive population, namely that the cycle periods get shorter with increasing rotation. This is in contrast with earlier studies, that postulate the existence of trends in both of the populations. In terms of rotation to cycle period ratio, our data is consistent with only two activity branches such that the active branch merges together with the transitional one. The retrieved stellar cycles are uniformly distributed over the R'HK activity index, indicating that the operation of stellar large-scale dynamos carries smoothly over the Vaughan-Preston gap. At around the solar activity index, however, indications of a disruption in the cyclic dynamo action are seen. Our study shows that stellar cycle estimates depend significantly on the model applied. Such model-dependent aspects include the improper treatment of linear trends, while the assumption of strict harmonicity can result in the appearance of double cyclicities that seem more likely to be explained by the quasi-periodicity of the cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Estimating activity cycles with probabilistic methods I. Bayesian Generalised Lomb-Scargle Periodogram with Trend

Period estimation is one of the central topics in astronomical time series analysis, where data is often unevenly sampled. Especially challenging are studies of stellar magnetic cycles, as there the periods looked for are of the order of the same length than the datasets themselves. The datasets often contain trends, the origin of which is either a real long-term cycle or an instrumental effect, but these effects cannot be reliably separated, while they can lead to erroneous period determinations if not properly handled. In this study we aim at developing a method that can handle the trends properly, and by performing extensive set of testing, we show that this is the optimal procedure when contrasted with methods that do not include the trend directly to the model. The effect of the form of the noise (whether constant or heteroscedastic) on the results is also investigated. We introduce a Bayesian Generalised Lomb-Scargle Periodogram with Trend (BGLST), which is a probabilistic linear regression model using Gaussian priors for the coefficients and uniform prior for the frequency parameter. We show, using synthetic data, that when there is no prior information on whether and to what extent the true model of the data contains a linear trend, the introduced BGLST method is preferable to the methods which either detrend the data or leave the data untrended before fitting the periodic model. Whether to use noise with different than constant variance in the model depends on the density of the data sampling as well as on the true noise type of the process.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Alignment of galaxies relative to their local environment in SDSS-DR8

We study the alignment of galaxies relative to their local environment in SDSS-DR8 and, using these data, we discuss evolution scenarios for different types of galaxies. We defined a vector field of the direction of anisotropy of the local environment of galaxies. We summed the unit direction vectors of all close neighbours of a given galaxy in a particular way to estimate this field. We found the alignment angles between the spin axes of disc galaxies, or the minor axes of elliptical galaxies, and the direction of anisotropy. The distributions of cosines of these angles are compared to the random distributions to analyse the alignment of galaxies. Sab galaxies show perpendicular alignment relative to the direction of anisotropy in a sparse environment, for single galaxies and galaxies of low luminosity. Most of the parallel alignment of Scd galaxies comes from dense regions, from 2...3 member groups and from galaxies with low luminosity. The perpendicular alignment of S0 galaxies does not depend strongly on environmental density nor luminosity; it is detected for single and 2...3 member group galaxies, and for main galaxies of 4...10 member groups. The perpendicular alignment of elliptical galaxies is clearly detected for single galaxies and for members of < 11 member groups; the alignment increases with environmental density and luminosity. We confirm the existence of fossil tidally induced alignment of Sab galaxies at low z. The alignment of Scd galaxies can be explained via the infall of matter to filaments. S0 galaxies may have encountered relatively massive mergers along the direction of anisotropy. Major mergers along this direction can explain the alignment of elliptical galaxies. Less massive, but repeated mergers are possibly responsible for the formation of elliptical galaxies in sparser areas and for less luminous elliptical galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2015

Magnetically controlled stellar differential rotation near the transition from solar to anti-solar profiles

Late-type stars rotate differentially owing to anisotropic turbulence in their outer convection zones. The rotation is called solar-like (SL) when the equator rotates fastest and anti-solar (AS) otherwise. Hydrodynamic simulations show a transition from SL to AS rotation as the influence of rotation on convection is reduced, but the opposite transition occurs at a different point in the parameter space. The system is bistable, i.e., SL and AS rotation profiles can both be stable. We study the effect of a dynamo-generated magnetic field on the large-scale flows, particularly on the possibility of bistable behavior of differential rotation. We solve the hydromagnetic equations numerically in a rotating spherical shell for a set of different radiative conductivities controlling the relative importance of convection. In agreement with earlier findings, our models display SL rotation profiles when the rotational influence on convection is strong and a transition to AS when the rotational influence decreases. We find that dynamo-generated magnetic fields help to produce SL differential rotation compared to the hydrodynamic simulations. We do not observe any bistable states of differential rotation. In the AS cases we get coherent single-cell meridional circulation, whereas in SL cases we get multi-cellular patterns. In both cases, we obtain poleward circulation near the surface with a magnitude close to that observed in the Sun. Moreover, both differential rotation and meridional circulation have significant magnetic cycle-related variations that are similar in strength to those of the Sun. Purely hydrodynamic simulations of differential rotation and meridional circulation are shown to be of limited relevance as magnetic fields, self-consistently generated by dynamo action, significantly affect the flows.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2014

Galaxy filaments as pearl necklaces

Context. Galaxies in the Universe form chains (filaments) that connect groups and clusters of galaxies. The filamentary network includes nearly half of the galaxies and is visually the most striking feature in cosmological maps. Aims. We study the distribution of galaxies along the filamentary network, trying to find specific patterns and regularities. Methods. Galaxy filaments are defined by the Bisous model, a marked point process with interactions. We use the two-point correlation function and the Rayleigh Z-squared statistic to study how galaxies and galaxy groups are distributed along the filaments. Results. We show that galaxies and groups are not uniformly distributed along filaments, but tend to form a regular pattern. The characteristic length of the pattern is around 7 Mpc/h. A slightly smaller characteristic length 4 Mpc/h can also be found, using the Z-squared statistic. Conclusions. We find that galaxy filaments in the Universe are like pearl necklaces, where the pearls are galaxy groups distributed more or less regularly along the filaments. We propose that this well defined characteristic scale could be used to test various cosmological models and to probe environmental effects on the formation and evolution of galaxies.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2011

Multiperiodicity, modulations and flip-flops in variable star light curves I. Carrier fit method

The light curves of variable stars are commonly described using simple trigonometric models, that make use of the assumption that the model parameters are constant in time. This assumption, however, is often violated, and consequently, time series models with components that vary slowly in time are of great interest. In this paper we introduce a class of data analysis and visualization methods which can be applied in many different contexts of variable star research, for example spotted stars, variables showing the Blazhko effect, and the spin-down of rapid rotators. The methods proposed are of explorative type, and can be of significant aid when performing a more thorough data analysis and interpretation with a more conventional method.Our methods are based on a straightforward decomposition of the input time series into a fast "clocking" periodicity and smooth modulating curves. The fast frequency, referred to as the carrier frequency, can be obtained from earlier observations (for instance in the case of photometric data the period can be obtained from independently measured radial velocities), postulated using some simple physical principles (Keplerian rotation laws in accretion disks), or estimated from the data as a certain mean frequency. The smooth modulating curves are described by trigonometric polynomials or splines. The data approximation procedures are based on standard computational packages implementing simple or constrained least-squares fit-type algorithms.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2011

Towards the automatic estimation of gravitational lenses' time delays

Estimation of time delays from a noisy and gapped data is one of the simplest data analysis problems in astronomy by its formulation. But as history of real experiments show, the work with observed data sets can be quite complex and evolved. By analysing in detail previous attempts to build delay estimation algorithms we try to develop an automatic and robust procedure to perform the task. To evaluate and compare different variants of the algorithms we use real observed data sets which have been objects of past controversies. In this way we hope to select the methods and procedures which have highest probability to succeed in complex situations. As a result of our investigations we propose an estimation procedure which can be used as a method of choice in large photometric experiments. We can not claim that proposed methodology works with any reasonably well sampled input data set. But we hope that the steps taken are in correct direction and developed software is truly useful for practising astronomers.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2009

Solar active regions: a nonparametric statistical analysis

The sunspots and other solar activity indicators tend to cluster on the surface of the Sun.These clusters very often occur at certain longitudes that persist in time.It is of general interest to find new and simple ways to characterize the observed distributions of different indicators and their behaviour in time. In the present work we use Greenwich sunspot data to evaluate statistical but not totally coherent stability of sunspot distribution along latitudes as well as longitudes. The aim was to obtain information on the longitudinal distribution of the underlying spot-generating mechanism rather than on the distribution and migration of sunspots or sunspot groups on the solar surface. Therefore only sunspot groups were included in the analysis, and only the time of their first appearance was used. We use simple nonparametric approach to reveal sunspot migration patterns and their persistency. Our analysis shows that regions where spots are generated tend to rotate differentially as the spots and spot groups themselves do. The activity areas, however, tend to break down relatively fast, during 7-15 solar rotations. This study provides a challenge for solar dynamo models, as our results are consistent with the presence of a non-axisymmetric spot-generating mechanism experiencing differential rotation (known as phase mixing in dynamo theory). The new nonparametric method introduced here, completely independent of the choice of the longitudinal distribution of sunspots, was found to be a very powerful tool for spatio-temporal analysis of surface features.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2007

Estimation of time delays from two blended light curves of gravitational lenses

Long time photometric monitoring programs of gravitational lens systems are often carried on using modest equipment. The resolution of such observations is limited and some of the images may remain unresolved. It may be still possible to find a full set of time delays from such a blended data. We discuss here a particular but interesting case when we have two light curves that both are blends. A suitable computational algorithm is developed and tested to work with computer-generated model light curves. Our method combines both blended sequences using the hypothetical time delays between the initial components of the light curves as free input parameters. The combined curves are then compared using statistical distance estimation. It occurs that using an assumption of equal magnification ratios between the components of the blends, we can indeed recover the whole set of time delays.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2006

Estimation of time delays from unresolved photometry

Longtime monitoring of gravitational lens systems is often done using telescopes and recording equipment with modest resolution. Still, it would be interesting to get as much information as possible from the measured lightcurves. From high resolution images we know that the recorded quasar images are often blends and that the corresponding time series are not pure shifted replicas of the source variability. In this paper we will develop an algorithm to unscramble this kind of blended data. The proposed method is based on a simple idea. We use one of the photometric curves, which is supposedly a simple shifted replica of the source curve, to build different artificial combined curves. Then we compare these artificial curves with the blended curves. Proper solutions for a full set of time delays are then obtained by varying free input parameters and estimating statistical distances between the artificial and blended curves. We performed a check of feasibility and applicability of the new algorithm. For numerically generated data sets the time delay systems were recovered for a wide range of setups. Application of the new algorithm to the classical double quasar QSO 0957+561 A,B lightcurves shows a clear splitting of one of the images. This is an unexpected result and extremely interesting, especially in the context of the recent controversy about the exact time delay value for the system. The proposed method allows us to properly analyse the data from low resolution observations that have long time coverages. There are a number of gravitational lens monitoring programmes that can make use of the new algorithm.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2006

Kinematic frames and "active longitudes": does the Sun have a face?

It has recently been claimed that analysis of Greenwich sunspot data over 120 years reveals that sunspot activity clusters around two longitudes separated by 180 degrees (``active longitudes'') with clearly defined differential rotation during activity cycles.In the present work we extend this critical examination of methodology to the actual Greenwich sunspot data and also consider newly proposed methods of analysis claiming to confirm the original identification of active longitudes. Our analysis revealed that values obtained for the parameters of differential rotation are not stable across different methods of analysis proposed to track persistent active longitudes. Also, despite a very thorough search in parameter space, we were unable to reproduce results claiming to reveal the century-persistent active longitudes. We can therefore say that strong and well substantiated evidence for an essential and century-scale persistent nonaxisymmetry in the sunspot distribution does not exist.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2004

Century scale persistence in longitude distribution: in the Sun and in silico

Using Greenwich sunspot data for 120 years it was recently observed that activity regions on the Sun's surface tend to lie along smoothly changing longitude strips 180 degrees apart from each other. However, numerical experiments with random input data show that most, if not all, of the observed longitude discrimination can be looked upon as an artifact of the analysis method.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2002

Bias and consistency in time delay estimation methods: case of the double quasar HE 1104-1805

We present a short re-evaluation of a recently published time delay estimate for the gravitational lens system HE 1104-1805 with emphasis on important methodological aspects: bias of the statistics, inconsistency of the methods and use of the purposeful selection of data points(or so-called "cleaning") at the preprocessing stage. We show how the inadequate use of simple analysis methods can lead to too strong conclusions. Our analysis shows that there are indications for the time delay in HE 1104-1805 to be between -0.9 and -0.7 years, but still with a large uncertainty.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2001

Periodic variations in the colours of the classical T Tauri star RW Aur A

The classical T Tauri star RW Aur A is an irregular variable with a large amplitude in all photometric bands. In an extended series of photometric data we found small-amplitude periodic variations in the blue colours of the star, with a period of 2.64 days. The period was relatively stable over several years. The amplitude of the periodic signal is 0.21 mag in U-V, 0.07 mag in B-V, and about 0.02 mag in V-R and V-I. No periodicity was found in the V magnitude. The relevance of this photometric period to the recently discovered periodicity in spectral features of the star is discussed, and the hypothesis of a hot spot is critically considered.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2000

An optical time-delay estimate for the double gravitational lens system B1600+434

We present optical I-band light curves of the gravitationally lensed double QSO B1600+434 from observations obtained at the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT) between April 1998 and November 1999. The photometry has been performed by simultaneous deconvolution of all the data frames, involving a numerical lens galaxy model. Four methods have been applied to determine the time delay between the two QSO components, giving a mean estimate of Δ_t = 51+/-4 days (95% confidence level). This is the fourth optical time delay ever measured. Adopting a Omega=0.3, Lambda=0 Universe and using the mass model of Maller et al. (2000), this time-delay estimate yields a Hubble parameter of H_0=52 (+14, -8) km s^-1 Mpc^-1 (95% confidence level) where the errors include time-delay as well as model uncertainties. There are time-dependent offsets between the two (appropriately shifted) light curves that indicate the presence of external variations due to microlensing.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2000

Constraints on source and lens parameters from microlensing variability in QSO 0957+561 A,B

From regular monitoring of the Double Quasar QSO 0957+561 A,B there is now general agreement on a time delay of about 416 days. This has made it possible to determine the microlensing residual in the light-curve, see Pelt et al. (1998). We have used two significant microlensing features: 1) A ``quiet'' period with a variability less than 0.05 mag lasting about 8 years, and 2) A change in the residual of 0.25 mag during a time interval of about 5 years. The first feature gives a lower limit for the lens mass, 'M', for a given normalized source radius, 'r', whereas the second feature gives an upper limit. We have considered the amount of mass in a continuum to be a free parameter with possible values between 0% (all mass in lenses) and 90%. At a significance level of 1% the mass can only be constrained within a rather wide range (1e-06 M_solar to 5 M_solar). For the radius 'R' of the source an upper limit of 1e16 cm is found, whereas the normalized source radius 'r' is restricted to be smaller than 30. At a level of 10%, however, the range of possible masses is much narrower (2e-03 M_solar to 0.5 M_solar), and the upper limit of R is about 6e15 cm, whereas the value of 'r' is restricted to be less than 2. We have used an effective transverse velocity 'V' equal to 600 km/s.

astro-ph↗

arXiv1994

Time delay controversy on QSO 0957+561 not yet decided

We present a new analysis of previously published optical and radio data sets of the gravitationally lensed quasar 0957+561 A,B with the aim of determining the time delay between its two images. We use a non-parametric estimate of the dispersion of the combined data set where, however, we only make use of alternating neighbours in order to avoid windowing effects. From the optical data a time delay of (415 $\pm$ 32) days and from the radio data a delay of (409 $\pm$ 23) days is suggested. We demonstrate a considerable sensitivity of different delay estimation procedures against the removal of only a few observational data points or against smoothing or detrending of the original data sets. The radio data give us formally a slightly more precise value for the time delay than the optical data. Also, due to the lack of windowing effects, the result obtained for the radio data can be considered as somewhat more reliable than the delay determined from the optical data.

astro-ph↗