arXiv subjects

J. R. Gair

Publications and source records attributed to J. R. Gair.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Reconciling PTA and JWST and preparing for LISA with POMPOCO: a Parametrisation Of the Massive black hole POpulation for Comparison to Observations

We develop a parametrised model to describe the formation and evolution of massive black holes, designed for comparisons with both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observations. Using an extended Press-Schechter formalism, we generate dark matter halo merger trees. We then seed and evolve massive black holes through parameterised prescriptions. This approach, which avoids solving differential equations, is computationally efficient, enabling us to analyse observational data and infer the parameters of our model in a fully Bayesian framework. We find that observations of the black hole luminosity function are compatible with the nHz gravitational wave signal (likely) measured by PTAs, provided we allow for an increased luminosity function at high redshift ($4-7$), as recently suggested by JWST observations. Our model can simultaneously reproduce the bulk of the $M_*-M_{\rm BH}$ relation at $z-0$, as well as its outliers, something cosmological simulations struggle to do. The inferred model parameters are consistent with expectations from observations and more complex simulations: They favour heavier black hole seeds and short delays between halo and black hole mergers, while requiring supper-Edington accretion episodes lasting a few tens of million years, which in our model are linked to galaxy mergers. We find accretion to be suppressed in the most massive black holes below $z\simeq 2.5$, consistently with the anti-hierarchical growth hypothesis. Finally, our predictions for LISA, although fairly broad, are in agreement with previous models. Our model offers a new perspective on the apparent tensions between the black hole luminosity function and the latest JWST and PTA results. Its flexibility makes it ideal to fully exploit the potential of future gravitational wave observations of massive black hole binaries with LISA.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Searches for signatures of ultra-light axion dark matter in polarimetry data of the European Pulsar Timing Array

Ultra-light axion-like particles (ALPs) can be a viable solution to the dark matter problem. The scalar field associated with ALPs, coupled to the electromagnetic field, acts as an active birefringent medium, altering the polarisation properties of light through which it propagates. In particular, oscillations of the axionic field induce monochromatic variations of the plane of linearly polarised radiation of astrophysical signals. The radio emission of millisecond pulsars provides an excellent tool to search for such manifestations, given their high fractional linear polarisation and negligible fluctuations of their polarisation properties. We have searched for the evidence of ALPs in the polarimetry measurements of pulsars collected and preprocessed for the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) campaign. Focusing on the twelve brightest sources in linear polarisation, we searched for an astrophysical signal from axions using both frequentist and Bayesian statistical frameworks. For the frequentist analysis, which uses Lomb-Scargle periodograms at its core, no statistically significant signal has been found. The model used for the Bayesian analysis has been adjusted to accommodate multiple deterministic systematics that may be present in the data. A statistically significant signal has been found in the dataset of multiple pulsars with common frequency between $10^{-8}$ Hz and $2\times10^{-8}$ Hz, which can most likely be explained by the residual Faraday rotation in the terrestrial ionosphere. Strong bounds on the coupling constant $g_{aγ}$, in the same ballpark as other searches, have been obtained in the mass range between $6\times10^{-24}$ eV and $5\times10^{-21}$ eV. We conclude by discussing problems that can limit the sensitivity of our search for ultra-light axions in the polarimetry data of pulsars, and possible ways to resolve them.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array V. Search for continuous gravitational wave signals

We present the results of a search for continuous gravitational wave signals (CGWs) in the second data release (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) collaboration. The most significant candidate event from this search has a gravitational wave frequency of 4-5 nHz. Such a signal could be generated by a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) in the local Universe. We present the results of a follow-up analysis of this candidate using both Bayesian and frequentist methods. The Bayesian analysis gives a Bayes factor of 4 in favor of the presence of the CGW over a common uncorrelated noise process, while the frequentist analysis estimates the p-value of the candidate to be 1%, also assuming the presence of common uncorrelated red noise. However, comparing a model that includes both a CGW and a gravitational wave background (GWB) to a GWB only, the Bayes factor in favour of the CGW model is only 0.7. Therefore, we cannot conclusively determine the origin of the observed feature, but we cannot rule it out as a CGW source. We present results of simulations that demonstrate that data containing a weak gravitational wave background can be misinterpreted as data including a CGW and vice versa, providing two plausible explanations of the EPTA DR2 data. Further investigations combining data from all PTA collaborations will be needed to reveal the true origin of this feature.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array: IV. Implications for massive black holes, dark matter and the early Universe

The European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) and Indian Pulsar Timing Array (InPTA) collaborations have measured a low-frequency common signal in the combination of their second and first data releases respectively, with the correlation properties of a gravitational wave background (GWB). Such signal may have its origin in a number of physical processes including a cosmic population of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs); inflation, phase transitions, cosmic strings and tensor mode generation by non-linear evolution of scalar perturbations in the early Universe; oscillations of the Galactic potential in the presence of ultra-light dark matter (ULDM). At the current stage of emerging evidence, it is impossible to discriminate among the different origins. Therefore, in this paper, we consider each process separately, and investigate the implications of the signal under the hypothesis that it is generated by that specific process. We find that the signal is consistent with a cosmic population of inspiralling SMBHBs, and its relatively high amplitude can be used to place constraints on binary merger timescales and the SMBH-host galaxy scaling relations. If this origin is confirmed, this is the first direct evidence that SMBHBs merge in nature, adding an important observational piece to the puzzle of structure formation and galaxy evolution. As for early Universe processes, the measurement would place tight constraints on the cosmic string tension and on the level of turbulence developed by first-order phase transitions. Other processes would require non-standard scenarios, such as a blue-tilted inflationary spectrum or an excess in the primordial spectrum of scalar perturbations at large wavenumbers. Finally, a ULDM origin of the detected signal is disfavoured, which leads to direct constraints on the abundance of ULDM in our Galaxy.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Practical approaches to analyzing PTA data: Cosmic strings with six pulsars

We search for a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) generated by a network of cosmic strings using six millisecond pulsars from Data Release 2 (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). We perform a Bayesian analysis considering two models for the network of cosmic string loops, and compare it to a simple power-law model which is expected from the population of supermassive black hole binaries. Our main strong assumption is that the previously reported common red noise process is a SGWB. We find that the one-parameter cosmic string model is slightly favored over a power-law model thanks to its simplicity. If we assume a two-component stochastic signal in the data (supermassive black hole binary population and the signal from cosmic strings), we get a $95\%$ upper limit on the string tension of $\log_{10}(Gμ) < -9.9$ ($-10.5$) for the two cosmic string models we consider. In extended two-parameter string models, we were unable to constrain the number of kinks. We test two approximate and fast Bayesian data analysis methods against the most rigorous analysis and find consistent results. These two fast and efficient methods are applicable to all SGWBs, independent of their source, and will be crucial for analysis of extended data sets.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array: VI. Challenging the ultralight dark matter paradigm

Pulsar Timing Array experiments probe the presence of possible scalar or pseudoscalar ultralight dark matter particles through decade-long timing of an ensemble of galactic millisecond radio pulsars. With the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array, we focus on the most robust scenario, in which dark matter interacts only gravitationally with ordinary baryonic matter. Our results show that ultralight particles with masses $10^{-24.0}~\text{eV} \lesssim m \lesssim 10^{-23.3}~\text{eV}$ cannot constitute $100\%$ of the measured local dark matter density, but can have at most local density $ρ\lesssim 0.3$ GeV/cm$^3$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Comparing recent PTA results on the nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background

The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within $1σ$. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings and Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars, but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than as single PTA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array I. The dataset and timing analysis

Pulsar timing arrays offer a probe of the low-frequency gravitational wave spectrum (1 - 100 nanohertz), which is intimately connected to a number of markers that can uniquely trace the formation and evolution of the Universe. We present the dataset and the results of the timing analysis from the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). The dataset contains high-precision pulsar timing data from 25 millisecond pulsars collected with the five largest radio telescopes in Europe, as well as the Large European Array for Pulsars. The dataset forms the foundation for the search for gravitational waves by the EPTA, presented in associated papers. We describe the dataset and present the results of the frequentist and Bayesian pulsar timing analysis for individual millisecond pulsars that have been observed over the last ~25 years. We discuss the improvements to the individual pulsar parameter estimates, as well as new measurements of the physical properties of these pulsars and their companions. This data release extends the dataset from EPTA Data Release 1 up to the beginning of 2021, with individual pulsar datasets with timespans ranging from 14 to 25 years. These lead to improved constraints on annual parallaxes, secular variation of the orbital period, and Shapiro delay for a number of sources. Based on these results, we derived astrophysical parameters that include distances, transverse velocities, binary pulsar masses, and annual orbital parallaxes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array II. Customised pulsar noise models for spatially correlated gravitational waves

The nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) is expected to be an aggregate signal of an ensemble of gravitational waves emitted predominantly by a large population of coalescing supermassive black hole binaries in the centres of merging galaxies. Pulsar timing arrays, ensembles of extremely stable pulsars, are the most precise experiments capable of detecting this background. However, the subtle imprints that the GWB induces on pulsar timing data are obscured by many sources of noise. These must be carefully characterized to increase the sensitivity to the GWB. In this paper, we present a novel technique to estimate the optimal number of frequency coefficients for modelling achromatic and chromatic noise and perform model selection. We also incorporate a new model to fit for scattering variations in the pulsar timing package temponest and created realistic simulations of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) datasets that allowed us to test the efficacy of our noise modelling algorithms. We present an in-depth analysis of the noise properties of 25 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) that form the second data release (DR2) of the EPTA and investigate the effect of incorporating low-frequency data from the Indian PTA collaboration. We use enterprise and temponest packages to compare noise models with those reported with the EPTA DR1. We find that, while in some pulsars we can successfully disentangle chromatic from achromatic noise owing to the wider frequency coverage in DR2, in others the noise models evolve in a more complicated way. We also find evidence of long-term scattering variations in PSR J1600$-$3053. Through our simulations, we identify intrinsic biases in our current noise analysis techniques and discuss their effect on GWB searches. The results presented here directly help improve sensitivity to the GWB and are already being used as part of global PTA efforts.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array III. Search for gravitational wave signals

We present the results of the search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) at nanohertz frequencies using the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) for 25 millisecond pulsars and a combination with the first data release of the Indian Pulsar Timing Array (InPTA). We analysed (i) the full 24.7-year EPTA data set, (ii) its 10.3-year subset based on modern observing systems, (iii) the combination of the full data set with the first data release of the InPTA for ten commonly timed millisecond pulsars, and (iv) the combination of the 10.3-year subset with the InPTA data. These combinations allowed us to probe the contributions of instrumental noise and interstellar propagation effects. With the full data set, we find marginal evidence for a GWB, with a Bayes factor of four and a false alarm probability of $4\%$. With the 10.3-year subset, we report evidence for a GWB, with a Bayes factor of $60$ and a false alarm probability of about $0.1\%$ ($\gtrsim 3σ$ significance). The addition of the InPTA data yields results that are broadly consistent with the EPTA-only data sets, with the benefit of better noise modelling. Analyses were performed with different data processing pipelines to test the consistency of the results from independent software packages. The inferred spectrum from the latest EPTA data from new generation observing systems is rather uncertain and in mild tension with the common signal measured in the full data set. However, if the spectral index is fixed at 13/3, the two data sets give a similar amplitude of ($2.5\pm0.7)\times10^{-15}$ at a reference frequency of $1\,{\rm yr}^{-1}$. By continuing our detection efforts as part of the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA), we expect to be able to improve the measurement of spatial correlations and better characterise this signal in the coming years.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2022

Constraining the evolution of Newton's constant with slow inspirals observed from spaceborne gravitational-wave detectors

Spaceborne gravitational-wave (GW) detectors observing at milli-Hz and deci-Hz frequencies are expected to detect large numbers of quasi-monochromatic signals. The first and second time-derivative of the GW frequency ($\dot f_0$ and $\ddot f_0$) can be measured for the most favourable sources and used to look for negative post-Newtonian corrections, which can be induced by the source's environment or modifications of general relativity. We present an analytical, Fisher-matrix-based approach to estimate how precisely such corrections can be constrained. We use this method to estimate the bounds attainable on the time evolution of the gravitational constant $G(t)$ with different classes of quasi-monochromatic sources observable with LISA and DECIGO, two representative spaceborne detectors for milli-Hz and deci-Hz GW frequencies. We find that the most constraining source among a simulated population of LISA galactic binaries could yield $\dot G/G_0 \lesssim 10^{-6}\text{yr}^{-1}$, while the best currently known verification binary will reach $\dot G/G_0 \lesssim 10^{-4}\text{yr}^{-1}$. We also perform Monte-Carlo simulations using quasi-monochromatic waveforms to check the validity of our Fisher-matrix approach, as well as inspiralling waveforms to analyse binaries that do not satisfy the quasi-monochromatic assumption. We find that our analytical Fisher matrix produces good order-of-magnitude constraints even for sources well beyond its regime of validity. Monte-Carlo investigations also show that chirping stellar-mass compact binaries detected by DECIGO-like detectors at cosmological distances of tens of Mpc can yield constraints as tight as $\dot G/G_0 \lesssim 10^{-11}\text{yr}^{-1}$.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

The International Pulsar Timing Array second data release: Search for an isotropic Gravitational Wave Background

We searched for an isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array, a global collaboration synthesizing decadal-length pulsar-timing campaigns in North America, Europe, and Australia. In our reference search for a power law strain spectrum of the form $h_c = A(f/1\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1})^α$, we found strong evidence for a spectrally-similar low-frequency stochastic process of amplitude $A = 3.8^{+6.3}_{-2.5}\times10^{-15}$ and spectral index $α= -0.5 \pm 0.5$, where the uncertainties represent 95\% credible regions, using information from the auto- and cross-correlation terms between the pulsars in the array. For a spectral index of $α= -2/3$, as expected from a population of inspiralling supermassive black hole binaries, the recovered amplitude is $A = 2.8^{+1.2}_{-0.8}\times10^{-15}$. Nonetheless, no significant evidence of the Hellings-Downs correlations that would indicate a gravitational-wave origin was found. We also analyzed the constituent data from the individual pulsar timing arrays in a consistent way, and clearly demonstrate that the combined international data set is more sensitive. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this combined data set produces comparable constraints to recent single-array data sets which have more data than the constituent parts of the combination. Future international data releases will deliver increased sensitivity to gravitational wave radiation, and significantly increase the detection probability.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Noise analysis in the European Pulsar Timing Array data release 2 and its implications on the gravitational-wave background search

The European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) collaboration has recently released an extended data set for six pulsars (DR2) and reported evidence for a common red noise signal. Here we present a noise analysis for each of the six pulsars. We consider several types of noise: (i) radio frequency independent, "achromatic", and time-correlated red noise; (ii) variations of dispersion measure and scattering; (iii) system and band noise; and (iv) deterministic signals (other than gravitational waves) that could be present in the PTA data. We perform Bayesian model selection to find the optimal combination of noise components for each pulsar. Using these custom models we revisit the presence of the common uncorrelated red noise signal previously reported in the EPTA DR2 and show that the data still supports it with a high statistical significance. Next, we confirm that there is no preference for or against the Hellings-Downs spatial correlations expected for the stochastic gravitational-wave background. The main conclusion of the EPTA DR2 paper remains unchanged despite a very significant change in the noise model of each pulsar. However, modelling the noise is essential for the robust detection of gravitational waves and its impact could be significant when analysing the next EPTA data release, which will include a larger number of pulsars and more precise measurements.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

Common-red-signal analysis with 24-yr high-precision timing of the European Pulsar Timing Array: Inferences in the stochastic gravitational-wave background search

We present results from the search for a stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) as predicted by the theory of General Relativity using six radio millisecond pulsars from the Data Release 2 (DR2) of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) covering a timespan up to 24 years. A GWB manifests itself as a long-term low-frequency stochastic signal common to all pulsars, a common red signal (CRS), with the characteristic Hellings-Downs (HD) spatial correlation. Our analysis is performed with two independent pipelines, \eprise{} and \tn{}+\ftwo{}, which produce consistent results. A search for a CRS with simultaneous estimation of its spatial correlations yields spectral properties compatible with theoretical GWB predictions, but does not result in the required measurement of the HD correlation, as required for GWB detection. Further Bayesian model comparison between different types of CRSs, including a GWB, finds the most favoured model to be the common uncorrelated red noise described by a power-law with $A = 5.13_{-2.73}^{+4.20} \times 10^{-15}$ and $γ= 3.78_{-0.59}^{+0.69}$ (95\% credible regions). Fixing the spectral index to $γ=13/3$ as expected from the GWB by circular, inspiralling supermassive black-hole binaries results in an amplitude of $A =2.95_{-0.72}^{+0.89} \times 10^{-15}$. We implement three different models, BAYESEPHEM, LINIMOSS and EPHEMGP, to address possible Solar-system ephemeris (SSE) systematics and conclude that our results may only marginally depend on these effects. This work builds on the methods and models from the studies on the EPTA DR1. We show that under the same analysis framework the results remain consistent after the data set extension.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2018

Studying the solar system with the International Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar-timing analyses are sensitive to errors in the solar-system ephemerides (SSEs) that timing models utilise to estimate the location of the solar-system barycentre, the quasi-inertial reference frame to which all recorded pulse times-of-arrival are referred. Any error in the SSE will affect all pulsars, therefore pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are a suitable tool to search for such errors and impose independent constraints on relevant physical parameters. We employ the first data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array to constrain the masses of the planet-moons systems and to search for possible unmodelled objects (UMOs) in the solar system. We employ ten SSEs from two independent research groups, derive and compare mass constraints of planetary systems, and derive the first PTA mass constraints on asteroid-belt objects. Constraints on planetary-system masses have been improved by factors of up to 20 from the previous relevant study using the same assumptions, with the mass of the Jovian system measured at 9.5479189(3)$\times10^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. The mass of the dwarf planet Ceres is measured at 4.7(4)$\times10^{-10}$ $M_{\odot}$. We also present the first sensitivity curves using real data that place generic limits on the masses of UMOs, which can also be used as upper limits on the mass of putative exotic objects. For example, upper limits on dark-matter clumps are comparable to published limits using independent methods. While the constraints on planetary masses derived with all employed SSEs are consistent, we note and discuss differences in the associated timing residuals and UMO sensitivity curves.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2017

Understanding the importance of transient resonances in extreme mass ratio inspirals

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) occur when a compact object orbits a much larger one, like a solar-mass black hole around a supermassive black hole. The orbit has 3 frequencies which evolve through the inspiral. If the orbital radial frequency and polar frequency become commensurate, the system passes through a transient resonance. Evolving through resonance causes a jump in the evolution of the orbital parameters. We study these jumps and their impact on EMRI gravitational-wave detection. Jumps are smaller for lower eccentricity orbits; since most EMRIs have small eccentricities when passing through resonances, we expect that the impact on detection will be small. Neglecting the effects of transient resonances leads to a loss of ~4% of detectable signals for an astrophysically motivated population of EMRIs.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2017

All correlations must die: Assessing the significance of a stochastic gravitational-wave background in pulsar-timing arrays

We present two methods for determining the significance of a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background affecting a pulsar-timing array, where detection is based on evidence for quadrupolar spatial correlations between pulsars. Rather than constructing noise simulations, we eliminate the GWB spatial correlations in the true datasets to assess detection significance with all real data features intact. In our first method, we perform random phase shifts in the signal-model basis functions. This phase shifting eliminates signal phase coherence between pulsars, while keeping the statistical properties of the pulsar timing residuals intact. We then explore a method to null correlations between pulsars by using a "scrambled" overlap-reduction function in the signal model for the array. This scrambled function is orthogonal to what we expect of a real GW background signal. We demonstrate the efficacy of these methods using Bayesian model selection on a set of simulated datasets that contain a stochastic GW signal, timing noise, undiagnosed glitches, and uncertainties in the Solar system ephemeris. Finally, we introduce an overarching formalism under which these two techniques are naturally linked. These methods are immediately applicable to all current pulsar-timing array datasets, and should become standard tools for future analyses.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

High-precision timing of 42 millisecond pulsars with the European Pulsar Timing Array

We report on the high-precision timing of 42 radio millisecond pulsars (MSPs) observed by the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA). This EPTA Data Release 1.0 extends up to mid-2014 and baselines range from 7-18 years. It forms the basis for the stochastic gravitational-wave background, anisotropic background, and continuous-wave limits recently presented by the EPTA elsewhere. The Bayesian timing analysis performed with TempoNest yields the detection of several new parameters: seven parallaxes, nine proper motions and, in the case of six binary pulsars, an apparent change of the semi-major axis. We find the NE2001 Galactic electron density model to be a better match to our parallax distances (after correction from the Lutz-Kelker bias) than the M2 and M3 models by Schnitzeler (2012). However, we measure an average uncertainty of 80\% (fractional) for NE2001, three times larger than what is typically assumed in the literature. We revisit the transverse velocity distribution for a set of 19 isolated and 57 binary MSPs and find no statistical difference between these two populations. We detect Shapiro delay in the timing residuals of PSRs J1600$-$3053 and J1918$-$0642, implying pulsar and companion masses $m_p=1.22_{-0.35}^{+0.5} \text{M}_{\odot}$, $m_c = 0.21_{-0.04}^{+0.06} \text{M}_{\odot }$ and $m_p=1.25_{-0.4}^{+0.6} \text{M}_{\odot}$, $m_c = 0.23_{-0.05}^{+0.07} \text{M}_{\odot }$, respectively. Finally, we use the measurement of the orbital period derivative to set a stringent constraint on the distance to PSRs J1012$+$5307 and J1909$-$3744, and set limits on the longitude of ascending node through the search of the annual-orbital parallax for PSRs J1600$-$3053 and J1909$-$3744.

astro-ph.HE↗