arXiv subjects

J. R. Pritchard

Publications and source records attributed to J. R. Pritchard.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scalable Bayesian data curation for next-generation radio experiments

Next-generation radio telescopes produce data volumes that preclude manual quality assessment, yet data curation remains essential for science. We present a general, fully automatic Bayesian anomaly-detection method for radio science experiments in which data curation is performed inside the inference: a latent anomaly indicator is marginalised in the likelihood rather than converted into an external pre-flag. Implemented in JAX with GPU-accelerated inference, the pipeline assigns probabilistic data-curation scores without prior knowledge and requires no thresholds, manual inspection, or subjective decisions. We demonstrate the method on the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH), applying it to 4655 observations (one year of REACH data). The pipeline assigns scores across time and frequency, enabling identification of the optimal observations to carry forward into scientific inference while reducing the risk that contaminated data bias the result. In doing so, it simultaneously recovers weather-driven systematics, instrument-component drifts, and narrow-band radio-frequency interference, while revealing complex dependencies between data quality and environmental or instrumental state that would be difficult to uncover by manual curation alone. This turns data curation from an external manual bottleneck into autonomous, inference-level infrastructure for the Square Kilometre Array era.

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arXiv2025

Radiometer Calibration using Machine Learning

Radiometers are crucial instruments in radio astronomy, forming the primary component of nearly all radio telescopes. They measure the intensity of electromagnetic radiation, converting this radiation into electrical signals. A radiometer's primary components are an antenna and a Low Noise Amplifier (LNA), which is the core of the ``receiver'' chain. Instrumental effects introduced by the receiver are typically corrected or removed during calibration. However, impedance mismatches between the antenna and receiver can introduce unwanted signal reflections and distortions. Traditional calibration methods, such as Dicke switching, alternate the receiver input between the antenna and a well-characterised reference source to mitigate errors by comparison. Recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) offer promising alternatives. Neural networks, which are trained using known signal sources, provide a powerful means to model and calibrate complex systems where traditional analytical approaches struggle. These methods are especially relevant for detecting the faint sky-averaged 21-cm signal from atomic hydrogen at high redshifts. This is one of the main challenges in observational Cosmology today. Here, for the first time, we introduce and test a machine learning-based calibration framework capable of achieving the precision required for radiometric experiments aiming to detect the 21-cm line.

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arXiv2025

Likelihood-free Model Selection in Cosmic Reionization with Three-dimensional Tomographic 21 cm Lightcone Images

We explore likelihood-free (aka simulation-based) Bayesian model selection to quantify model comparison analyses of reionisation scenarios. We iteratively train the 3D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) on four toy EoR models based on 21cmFAST simulations with contrasting morphology to obtain summaries of the 21 cm lightcone. Within the pyDelfi framework, we replaced the Emcee sampler with MultiNest to integrate learnt posteriors and produce the Bayesian Evidence. We comfortably distinguish the model used to produce the mock data set in all cases. However, we struggle to produce accurate posterior distributions for outside-in reionisation models. After a variety of cross-checks and alternate analyses we discuss the flexibility of summarising models that differ from precisely the intended network training conditions as this should be more widely scrutinised before CNN can reliably analyse observed data.

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arXiv2025

Receiver design for the REACH global 21-cm signal experiment

We detail the the REACH radiometric system designed to enable measurements of the 21-cm neutral hydrogen line. Included is the radiometer architecture and end-to-end system simulations as well as a discussion of the challenges intrinsic to highly-calibratable system development. Following this, we share laboratory results based on the calculation of noise wave parameters utilising an over-constrained least squares approach demonstrating a calibration RMSE of 80 mK for five hours of integration on a custom-made source with comparable impedance to that of the antenna used in the field. This paper therefore documents the state of the calibrator and data analysis in December 2022 in Cambridge before shipping to South Africa.

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arXiv2023

Radio antenna design for sky-averaged 21 cm cosmology experiments: the REACH case

Following the reported detection of an absorption profile associated with the 21~cm sky-averaged signal from the Cosmic Dawn by the EDGES experiment in 2018, a number of experiments have been set up to verify this result. This paper discusses the design process used for global 21~cm experiments, focusing specifically on the Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH). This experiment will seek to understand and compensate for systematic errors present using detailed modelling and characterization of the instrumentation. There is detailed the quantitative figures of merit and numerical modelling used to assist the design process of the REACH dipole antenna (one of the 2 antenna designs for REACH Phase I). This design process produced a 2.5:1 frequency bandwidth dipole. The aim of this design was to balance spectral smoothness and low impedance reflections with the ability to describe and understand the antenna response to the sky signal to inform the critically important calibration during observation and data analysis.

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arXiv2022

The REACH radiometer for detecting the 21-cm hydrogen signal from redshift 7.5 to 28

Observations of the 21-cm line from primordial hydrogen promise to be one of the best tools to study the early epochs of the Universe: the Dark Ages, the Cosmic Dawn, and the subsequent Epoch of Reionization. In 2018, the EDGES experiment caught the attention of the cosmology community with a potential detection of an absorption feature in the sky-averaged radio spectrum centred at 78 MHz. The feature is deeper than expected, and, if confirmed, would call for new physics. However, different groups have re-analyzed the EDGES data and questioned the reliability of the signal. The Radio Experiment for the Analysis of Cosmic Hydrogen (REACH) is a sky-averaged 21-cm experiment aiming at improving the current observations by tackling the issues faced by current instruments related to residual systematic signals in the data. The novel experimental approach focuses on detecting and jointly explaining these systematics together with the foregrounds and the cosmological signal using Bayesian statistics. To achieve this, REACH features simultaneous observations with two different antennas, an ultra wideband system (redshift range 7.5 to 28), and a receiver calibrator based on in-field measurements. Simulated observations forecast percent-level constraints on astrophysical parameters, potentially opening up a new window to the infant Universe.

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arXiv2019

Bayesian Model Selection with Future 21cm Observations of The Epoch of Reionisation

We apply Bayesian statistics to perform model selection on different reionisation scenarios via the Multinest algorithm. Initially, we recover the results shown by 21CMMC for the parameter estimation of 21cmFAST models. We proceed to test several toy models of the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) defined in contrasting morphology and scale. We find that LOFAR observations are unlikely to allow model selection even with long integration times. HERA would require 61 dipoles to perform the same analysis in 1080 hours, and becomes comparable to the SKA with 217 dipoles. We find the SKA requires only 324 hours of observation to conclusively distinguish between our models. Once model selection is achievable, an analysis of observational priors is performed finding that neutral fraction checks at specific redshifts add little to no inference. We show the difficulties in model selection at the level of distinguishing fiducial parameters within a model or distinguishing galaxies with a constant versus power law mass-to-light ratio. Finally, we explore the use of the Savage-Dickey density ratio to show the redundancy of the parameter Rmfp within 21cmFAST.

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arXiv2015

21-cm signatures of residual HI inside cosmic HII regions during reionization

We investigate the impact of sinks of ionizing radiation on the reionization-era 21-cm signal, focusing on 1-point statistics. We consider sinks in both the intergalactic medium and inside galaxies. At a fixed filling factor of HII regions, sinks will have two main effects on the 21-cm morphology: (i) as inhomogeneous absorbers of ionizing photons they result in smaller and more widespread cosmic HII patches; and (ii) as reservoirs of neutral gas they contribute a non-zero 21-cm signal in otherwise ionized regions. Both effects damp the contrast between neutral and ionized patches during reionization, making detection of the epoch of reionization with 21-cm interferometry more challenging. Here we systematically investigate these effects using the latest semi-numerical simulations. We find that sinks dramatically suppress the peak in the redshift evolution of the variance, corresponding to the midpoint of reionization. As previously predicted, skewness changes sign at midpoint, but the fluctuations in the residual HI suppress a late-time rise. Furthermore, large levels of residual HI dramatically alter the evolution of the variance, skewness and power spectrum from that seen at lower levels. In general, the evolution of the large-scale modes provides a better, cleaner, higher signal-to-noise probe of reionization.

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arXiv2013

Probing the accelerating Universe with radio weak lensing in the JVLA Sky Survey

We outline the prospects for performing pioneering radio weak gravitational lensing analyses using observations from a potential forthcoming JVLA Sky Survey program. A large-scale survey with the JVLA can offer interesting and unique opportunities for performing weak lensing studies in the radio band, a field which has until now been the preserve of optical telescopes. In particular, the JVLA has the capacity for large, deep radio surveys with relatively high angular resolution, which are the key characteristics required for a successful weak lensing study. We highlight the potential advantages and unique aspects of performing weak lensing in the radio band. In particular, the inclusion of continuum polarisation information can greatly reduce noise in weak lensing reconstructions and can also remove the effects of intrinsic galaxy alignments, the key astrophysical systematic effect that limits weak lensing at all wavelengths. We identify a VLASS "deep fields" program (total area ~10-20 square degs), to be conducted at L-band and with high-resolution (A-array configuration), as the optimal survey strategy from the point of view of weak lensing science. Such a survey will build on the unique strengths of the JVLA and will remain unsurpassed in terms of its combination of resolution and sensitivity until the advent of the Square Kilometre Array. We identify the best fields on the JVLA-accessible sky from the point of view of overlapping with existing deep optical and near infra-red data which will provide crucial redshift information and facilitate a host of additional compelling multi-wavelength science.

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arXiv2011

Probing the first galaxies with the SKA

Observations of anisotropies in the brightness temperature of the 21 cm line of neutral hydrogen from the period before reionization would shed light on the dawn of the first stars and galaxies. In this paper, we use large-scale semi-numerical simulations to analyse the imprint on the 21 cm signal of spatial fluctuations in the Lyman-alpha flux arising from the clustering of the first galaxies. We show that an experiment such as the Square Kilometer Array (SKA) can probe this signal at the onset of reionization, giving us important information about the UV emission spectra of the first stars and characterizing their host galaxies. SKA-pathfinders with ~ 10% of the full collecting area should be capable of making a statistical detection of the 21 cm power spectrum at redshifts z < 20 (corresponding to frequencies $ν$ > 67 MHz). We then show that the SKA should be able to measure the three dimensional power spectrum as a function of the angle with the line of sight and discuss the use of the redshift space distortions as a way to separate out the different components of the 21 cm power spectrum. We demonstrate that, at least on large scales where the Lyman-alpha fluctuations are linear, they can be used as a model independent way to extract the power spectra due to these Lyman-alpha fluctuations.

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arXiv2011

Stellar black holes at the dawn of the universe

It is well established that between 380000 and 1 billion years after the Big Bang the Inter Galactic Medium (IGM) underwent a "phase transformation" from cold and fully neutral to warm (~10^4 K) and ionized. Whether this phase transformation was fully driven and completed by photoionization by young hot stars is a question of topical interest in cosmology. AIMS. We propose here that besides the ultraviolet radiation from massive stars, feedback from accreting black holes in high-mass X-ray binaries (BH-HMXBs) was an additional, important source of heating and reionization of the IGM in regions of low gas density at large distances from star-forming galaxies. METHODS. We use current theoretical models on the formation and evolution of primitive massive stars of low metallicity, and the observations of compact stellar remnants in the near and distant universe, to infer that a significant fraction of the first generations of massive stars end up as BH-HMXBs. The total number of energetic ionizing photons from an accreting stellar black hole in an HMXB is comparable to the total number of ionizing photons of its progenitor star. However, the X-ray photons emitted by the accreting black hole are capable of producing several secondary ionizations and the ionizing power of the resulting black hole could be greater than that of its progenitor. Feedback by the large populations of BH-HMXBs heats the IGM to temperatures of ~10^4 K and maintains it ionized on large distance scales. BH-HMXBs determine the early thermal history of the universe and mantain it as ionized over large volumes of space in regions of low density. This has a direct impact on the properties of the faintest galaxies at high redshifts, the smallest dwarf galaxies in the local universe, and on the existing and future surveys at radio wavelengths of atomic hydrogen in the early universe.

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arXiv2009

Observing Neutral Hydrogen Above Redshift 6: The "Global" Perspective

Above redshift 6, the dominant source of neutral hydrogen in the Universe shifts from localized clumps in and around galaxies and filaments to a pervasive, diffuse component of the intergalactic medium (IGM). This transition tracks the global neutral fraction of hydrogen in the IGM and can be studied, in principle, through the redshifted 21 cm hyperfine transition line. During the last half of the reionization epoch, the mean (global) brightness temperature of the redshifted 21 cm emission is proportional to the neutral fraction, but at earlier times (10 < z < 25), the mean brightness temperature should probe the spin temperature of neutral hydrogen in the IGM. Measuring the (of order 10 mK) mean brightness temperature of the redshifted 21 cm line as a function of frequency (and hence redshift) would chart the early evolution of galaxies through the heating and ionizing of the IGM by their stellar populations. Experiments are already underway to accomplish this task or, at least, provide basic constraints on the evolution of the mean brightness temperature. We provide a brief overview of one of these projects, the Experiment to the Detect the Global EOR Signature (EDGES), and discuss prospects for future results.

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arXiv2008

Cosmological parameters after WMAP5: forecasts for Planck and future galaxy surveys

The Planck satellite is expected to improve the measurement of most cosmological parameters by several factors with respect to current WMAP results. The actual performance may depend upon various aspects of the data analysis. In this paper we analyse the impact of specifics of the data analysis on the actual final results. We also explore the synergies in combining Planck results with future galaxy surveys. We find that Planck will improve constraints on most cosmological parameters by a factor 3-4 and on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r by a factor 9. Also inflationary parameters, like r, n_s and n_run, are no longer degenerate. The tensor spectral index, however, is little constrained. A combination of the 70 to 143 GHz channels will contain ~90% of all possible information, with 143 GHz polarisation information carrying about half of the constraining power on r. Also, the error on r degrades by a factor 2 if no B modes are included in the analysis. High-l temperature information is essential for determination of n_s and Ω_b, while improving noise properties increase the l-range where Planck would be cosmic variance limited in polarisation, with a significant improvement on the determination of r, τand A_s. However, a sub-percent difference in the FWHM used in the data analysis with respect to the one in the map will result in a bias for several parameters. Finally, Planck will greatly help future missions like LSST and CIP reach their potentials by providing tight constraints on parameters like n_s and n_run. Considering Planck together with these probes will help in breaking degeneracies between Ω_K and Ω_Λor Ω_dm and f_ν, resulting in improvements of several factors in the error associated to these parameters.

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