Sensitivity of the As-Built Askaryan Radio Array to Ultra-High Energy Neutrinos
The Askaryan Radio Array (ARA) is an ultra-high energy (UHE) neutrino observatory designed to detect the impulsive radio waves produced by relativistic particle cascades in the Antarctic glacial ice. Using a significantly enhanced simulation pipeline, which adds data-driven detector simulations and fully incorporates secondary particle production, we calculate the trigger-level acceptance of the entire array. We compare the resulting trigger-level sensitivity to constraints on the UHE neutrino flux from other detectors. Given its exposure from 2013 to 2023, we find that ARA achieves a world-leading sensitivity above about $10^{19}$ eV, depending on the details of the event selection used in a search. Moreover, we find that up to 13 neutrinos are predicted to have been observed in this period at trigger-level, assuming the most optimistic neutrino flux models. We show that observations of secondary particles account for up to 30\% of the total acceptance starting at $10^{19}$ eV, and we explore the potential signatures and implications of both multi-pulse (from direct and refracted pulses and/or from secondary particle interactions) and multi-station events. Finally, we comment on the implications of this study for the design of next-generation UHE neutrino experiments, in particular IceCube-Gen2 Radio.