arXiv subjects

JJ Kavelaars

Publications and source records attributed to JJ Kavelaars.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

First multi-opposition recoveries of large-orbit LSST TNOs

We report 2026 CFHT second-opposition recovery observations of three large-orbit Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) discovered by the Vera C. Rubin Telescope's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) during preliminary observations in 2025. Due to their potential scientific interest, we selected three TNOs whose nominal semimajor axis could be larger than 100~au according to their short-arc ($\leq0.2$-yr) LSST observations. These three targets (2025 LS2, 2025 ME278, 2025 MX348) had discovery opposition orbits of varying observation quality (in terms of the duration and distribution of observations). In two cases, the 2026 CFHT recoveries showed that the semimajor axis dropped by a factor of $\simeq$3-10, and that the object appears to be a (common) plutino in the 3:2 mean-motion resonance with Neptune. We discuss how and why the estimated orbital elements evolved, and re-caution the community to be skeptical of unusual TNO orbits until they have multi-opposition recoveries.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2026

Exoplanet Search and Characterization with the Proposed POET Canadian Space Mission

The Photometric Observations of Exoplanet Transits (POET) is a proposed micro-satellite mission dedicated to the characterization and discovery of transiting exoplanets. POET has been identified as a top priority small-sat space mission in the Canadian Astronomy Long Range Plan 2020-2030. POET is being proposed as Canada's next astronomy space mission, with launch possible in late 2029. POET is an iteration on the designs of the Canadian MOST and NEOSSat space missions, which had 15 cm-sized telescopes and observed only in the visible band pass. POET will have a larger 20 cm telescope aperture and three band passes: near-ultraviolet (nUV; 300-400 nm), visible near-infrared (VNIR; 400-900 nm), and short-wavelength infrared (SWIR; 900-1700 nm). All mission components either already have significant space heritage or are seeing rapid adoption in commercial space missions. POET's simultaneous tri-band 300-1700 nm photometric monitoring will allow it to separate the impact of star spots on the transmission spectrum of extended atmospheres on super-Earth or larger exoplanets. POET's SWIR band is optimally sensitive to the emission peak of ultracool dwarf stars and would enable a systematic search for Earth-sized planets around them. POET aims to discover some of the nearest potentially habitable Earth-sized exoplanets that could be scrutinized for biosignatures with JWST or future telescopes. Herein we present the assembly of the POET Input Catalog of Ultracool Dwarfs and simulations of the expected yield of rocky planets with POET.

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arXiv2025

Moving object detection from multi-depth images with an attention-enhanced CNN

One of the greatest challenges for detecting moving objects in the solar system from wide-field survey data is determining whether a signal indicates a true object or is due to some other source, like noise. Object verification has relied heavily on human eyes, which usually results in significant labor costs. In order to address this limitation and reduce the reliance on manual intervention, we propose a multi-input convolutional neural network integrated with a convolutional block attention module. This method is specifically tailored to enhance the moving object detection system that we have developed and used previously. The current method introduces two innovations. This first one is a multi-input architecture that processes multiple stacked images simultaneously. The second is the incorporation of the convolutional block attention module which enables the model to focus on essential features in both spatial and channel dimensions. These advancements facilitate efficient learning from multiple inputs, leading to more robust detection of moving objects. The performance of the model is evaluated on a dataset consisting of approximately 2,000 observational images. We achieved an accuracy of nearly 99% with AUC (an Area Under the Curve) of >0.99. These metrics indicate that the proposed model achieves excellent classification performance. By adjusting the threshold for object detection, the new model reduces the human workload by more than 99% compared to manual verification.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Discovery and dynamics of a Sedna-like object with a perihelion of 66 au

Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with large perihelion distances ($q > 60$ au) and semi-major axes ($a > 200$ au) provide insights into the early evolution of the solar system and the existence of a hypothetical distant planet. These objects are still rare and their detection is challenging, yet they play a crucial role in constraining models of solar system formation. Here we report the discovery of a Sedna-like TNO, 2023\,KQ$_{14}$, nicknamed `Ammonite', with $q = 66$ au, $a = 252$ au, and inclination $i=11^\circ$. Ammonite's orbit does not align with those of the other Sedna-like objects and fills the previously unexplained `$q$-gap' in the observed distribution of distant solar system objects. Simulations demonstrate that Ammonite is dynamically stable over 4.5 billion years. % with less than 1\% variation in its semi-major axis. Our analysis suggests that Ammonite and the other Sedna-like objects may have shared a primordial orbital clustering around 4.2 billion years ago. Furthermore, Ammonite's stable orbit favors larger orbits ($\sim$ 500 au) rather than closer ones for a large hypothetical planet in present-day trans-Neptunian space.

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arXiv2025

LiDO: Exploring the Stable Plutino Parameter Space

We present a publicly available, high-resolution, filled-parameter-space synthetic distribution of the Plutinos, trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) librating in the 3:2 mean-motion resonance with Neptune, with particular focus on the Plutinos simultaneously Kozai-librating. This synthetic distribution was built in preparation for results from the Large inclination Distant Objects (LiDO) Survey, which pointed at locations on the sky where Kozai Plutinos are predicted to come to pericenter and are thus most easily detected in magnitude-limited surveys. Although we do not expect the full stable parameter-space presented here to be populated with real TNOs, it provides a useful starting point for comparison with Neptune migration simulations and debiased observational results. Our new stable parameter space synthetic distribution of fictitious Plutinos is consistent with previous works, and we build on past results by focusing on the behavior of Kozai Plutinos over 4Gyr integrations. We find that 95% of 4Gyr stable Kozai Plutinos remain in the same omega-libration island for the entire integration. This provides an interesting diagnostic opportunity: any asymmetry in the true number of 4Gyr stable Kozai Plutinos in the two omega-libration islands must be caused by the details of emplacement during giant planet migration. Through analysis of previously published Neptune migration models, we show that the intrinsic fraction of Plutinos captured into Kozai depends on Neptune's migration speed and mode. Combining the filled-parameter-space synthetic distribution with future migration simulations and the results of the carefully characterized LiDO survey will enable interpretation of the intrinsic orbital distribution of the Kozai and non-Kozai Plutinos.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

An Extremely Deep Rubin Survey to Explore the Extended Kuiper Belt and Identify Objects Observable by New Horizons

A proposed Vera C. Rubin Observatory Deep Drilling micro-survey of the Kuiper Belt will investigate key properties of the distant solar system. Utilizing 30 hours of Rubin time across six 5-hour visits over one year starting in summer 2026, the survey aims to discover and determine orbits for up to 730 Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) to an $r$-magnitude of 27.5. These discoveries will enable precise characterization of the KBO size distribution, which is critical for understanding planetesimal formation. By aligning the survey field with NASA's {\it New Horizons} spacecraft trajectory, the micro-survey will facilitate discoveries for the mission operating in the Kuiper Belt. Modeling based on the Outer Solar System Origin Survey (OSSOS) predicts at least 12 distant KBOs observable with the {\it New Horizons} LOng Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) and approximately three objects within 1~au of the spacecraft, allowing higher-resolution observations than Earth-based facilities. LORRI's high solar phase angle monitoring will reveal these objects' surface properties and shapes, potentially identifying contact binaries and orbit-class surface correlations. The survey could identify a KBO suitable for a future spacecraft flyby. The survey's size, depth, and cadence design will deliver transformative measurements of the Kuiper Belt's size distribution and rotational properties across distance, size, and orbital class. Additionally, the high stellar density in the survey field also offers synergies with transiting exoplanet studies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2025

Characterization of the Deep, Extended Kuiper Belt in the Galactic Disk

We propose a Roman Space Telescope survey to investigate fundamental properties of the distant solar system in the region of the Kuiper Belt where object characteristics and the size distribution are inaccessible from any other telescope. Our pointing is coincident with the search space accessible to NASA's New Horizons spacecraft meaning, that a discovered object sufficiently near the orbit of New Horizons would potentially be investigated by a close flyby. In addition, numerous objects expected to be discovered by this search can be observed in the distance by New Horizons allowing their surface properties and satellite systems to both be probed. As designed, this survey will discover and determine orbits for as many as 900 Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs), providing a unique opportunity for ground-breaking Kuiper Belt science. It will simultaneously: (1) Probe and characterize the deep Kuiper Belt by identifying objects as small as a few km and taking our understanding of the size distribution to a new level. This has implications for understanding the the standard model (the Streaming Instability) of KBO formation and elucidating crater formation physics on these icy bodies. (2) Open KBO rotation studies, in particular of those objects with long rotation periods,(3) Discover and characterize KBO binaries at large distances, important because their duplicity offers information about object densities at these distant locations from the Sun. (4) Shed light on the cratering history of KBOs and improving the dating of the surfaces of Arrokoth, Pluto and Charon in addition to helping to place the 32 distant KBOs New Horizons has observed in context. This project also has synergies with transiting exoplanet studies due to the stellar density of our search fields. Coupled with our timing requirements it is sensitive to discovery of hot Jupiters and hot Neptunes.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Candidate Distant Trans-Neptunian Objects Detected by the New Horizons Subaru TNO Survey

We report the detection of 239 trans-Neptunian Objects discovered through the on-going New Horizons survey for distant minor bodies being performed with the Hyper Suprime-Cam mosaic imager on the Subaru Telescope. These objects were discovered in images acquired with either the r2 or the recently commissioned EB-gri filter using shift and stack routines. Due to the extremely high stellar density of the search region down stream of the spacecraft, new machine learning techniques had to be developed to manage the extremely high false positive rate of bogus candidates produced from the shift and stack routines. We report discoveries as faint as r2$\sim26.5$. We highlight an overabundance of objects found at heliocentric distances $R\gtrsim70$~au compared to expectations from modelling of the known outer Solar System. If confirmed, these objects betray the presence of a heretofore unrecognized abundance of distant objects that can help explain a number of other observations that otherwise remain at odds with the known Kuiper Belt, including detections of serendipitous stellar occultations, and recent results from the Student Dust Counter on-board the New Horizons spacecraft.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2023

The Future of Astronomical Data Infrastructure: Meeting Report

The astronomical community is grappling with the increasing volume and complexity of data produced by modern telescopes, due to difficulties in reducing, accessing, analyzing, and combining archives of data. To address this challenge, we propose the establishment of a coordinating body, an "entity," with the specific mission of enhancing the interoperability, archiving, distribution, and production of both astronomical data and software. This report is the culmination of a workshop held in February 2023 on the Future of Astronomical Data Infrastructure. Attended by 70 scientists and software professionals from ground-based and space-based missions and archives spanning the entire spectrum of astronomical research, the group deliberated on the prevailing state of software and data infrastructure in astronomy, identified pressing issues, and explored potential solutions. In this report, we describe the ecosystem of astronomical data, its existing flaws, and the many gaps, duplication, inconsistencies, barriers to access, drags on productivity, missed opportunities, and risks to the long-term integrity of essential data sets. We also highlight the successes and failures in a set of deep dives into several different illustrative components of the ecosystem, included as an appendix.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2022

Col-OSSOS: The Two Types of Kuiper Belt Surfaces

The Colours of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (Col-OSSOS) has gathered high quality, near-simultaneous (g-r) and (r-J) colours of 92 Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) with (u-g) and (r-z) gathered for some. We present the current state of the survey and data analysis. Recognizing that the optical colours of most icy bodies broadly follow the reddening curve, we present a new projection of the optical-NIR colours, which rectifies the main non-linear features in the optical-NIR along the ordinates. We find evidence for a bifurcation in the projected colours which presents itself as a diagonal empty region in the optical-NIR. A reanalysis of past colour surveys reveals the same bifurcation. We interpret this as evidence for two separate surface classes: the BrightIR class spans the full range of optical colours and broadly follows the reddening curve, while the FaintIR objects are limited in optical colour, and are less bright in the NIR than the BrightIR objects. We present a two class model. Objects in each class consist of a mix of separate blue and red materials, and span a broad range in colour. Spectra are modelled as linear optical and NIR spectra with different slopes, that intersect at some transition wavelength. The underlying spectral properties of the two classes fully reproduce the observed structures in the UV-optical-NIR colour space ($0.4\lesssimλ\lesssim1.4 \mbox{ $μ$m}$), including the bifurcation observed in the Col-OSSOS and H/WTSOSS datasets, the tendency for cold classical KBOs to have lower (r-z) colours than excited objects, and the well known bimodal optical colour distribution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

OSSOS. XXIII. 2013 VZ70 and the Temporary Coorbitals of the Giant Planet

We present the discovery of 2013 VZ70, the first known horseshoe coorbital companion of Saturn. Observed by the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) for 4.5 years, the orbit of 2013 VZ70 is determined to high precision, revealing that it currently is in `horseshoe' libration with the planet. This coorbital motion will last at least thousands of years but ends ~10 kyr from now; 2013 VZ70 is thus another example of the already-known `transient coorbital' populations of the giant planets, with this being the first known prograde example for Saturn (temporary retrograde coorbitals are known for Jupiter and Saturn). We present a theoretical steady state model of the scattering population of trans-Neptunian origin in the giant planet region (2--34 au), including the temporary coorbital populations of the four giant planets. We expose this model to observational biases using survey simulations in order to compare the model to the real detections made by a set of well-characterized outer Solar System surveys. While the observed number of coorbitals relative to the scattering population is higher than predicted, we show that the number of observed transient coorbitals of each giant planet relative to each other is consistent with a transneptunian source.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

OSSOS finds an Exponential Cutoff in the Size Distribution of the Cold Classical Kuiper belt

The cold main classical Kuiper Belt consists of those non-resonant small solar system bodies with low orbital inclinations and orbital semi-major axes between 42.4 and 47.7 au. These objects likely formed \textit{in situ} and the population has experienced minimal collisional modification since formation. Using the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) ensemble sample and characterization, combined with constraints from deeper surveys and supported by evidence from the Minor Planet Center catalog and the Deep Ecliptic Survey, we determine the absolute magnitude $H_r$ distribution of the cold classical belt from $H_r\simeq5$ to 12 (roughly diameters of 400 km to 20 km). We conclude that the cold population's $H_r$ distribution exhibits an exponential cutoff at large sizes. Exponential cutoffs at large sizes are not a natural outcome of pair-wise particle accretion but exponentially tapered power-law size distributions are a feature of numerical simulations of planetesimal formation via a streaming instability. Our observation of an exponential cutoff agrees with previous observational inferences that no large objects ($D \gtrsim 400$ km) exist in the cold population. We note that the asymptotic slope of the $H_r$ distribution is consistent with $α\sim 0.4$ and this asymptotic slope is also found in streaming instability modelling of planetesimal formation and is thus not necessarily associated with achieving collisional equilibrium. Studies of the transneptunian region are providing the parameters that will enable future streaming-instability studies to determine the initial conditions of planetesimal formation in the $\approx$45 au region of the Sun's protoplanetary disk.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

FOSSIL: I. The Spin Rate Limit of Jupiter Trojans

Rotation periods of 53 small (diameters $2 < D < 40$ km) Jupiter Trojans (JTs) were derived using the high-cadence light curves obtained by the FOSSIL phase I survey, a Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam intensive program. These are the first reported periods measured for JTs with $D < 10$ km. We found a lower limit of the rotation period near 4 hr, instead of the previously published result of 5 hr (Ryan et al. 2017; Szabo et al. 2017, 2020) found for larger JTs. Assuming a rubble-pile structure for JTs, a bulk density of 0.9 gcm$^{-3}$ is required to withstand this spin rate limit, consistent with the value $0.8-1.0$ gcm$^{-3}$ (Marchis et al. 2006; Mueller et al. 2010; Buie et al. 2015; Berthier et al. 2020) derived from the binary JT system, (617) Patroclus-Menoetius system.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Collision Probabilities in the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt

Here, we present results on the intrinsic collision probabilities, $ P_I$, and range of collision speeds, $V_I$, as a function of the heliocentric distance, $r$, in the trans-Neptunian region. The collision speed is one of the parameters, that serves as a proxy to a collisional outcome e.g., complete disruption and scattering of fragments, or formation of crater, where both processes are directly related to the impact energy. We utilize an improved and de-biased model of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) region from the "Outer Solar System Origins Survey" (OSSOS). It provides a well-defined orbital distribution model of TNOs, based on multiple opposition observations of more than 1000 bodies. In this work we compute collisional probabilities for the OSSOS models of the main classical, resonant, detached+outer and scattering TNO populations. The intrinsic collision probabilities and collision speeds are computed using the Öpik's approach, as revised and modified by Wetherill for non-circular and inclined orbits. The calculations are carried out for each of the dynamical TNO groups, allowing for inter-population collisions as well as collisions within each TNO population, resulting in 28 combinations in total. Our results indicate that collisions in the trans-Neptunian region are possible over a wide range in ($r, V_I$) phase space. Although collisions are calculated to happen within $r\sim 20 - 200$~AU and $V_I \sim 0.1$~km/s to as high as $V_I\sim9$~km/s, most of the collisions are likely to happen at low relative velocities $V_I<1$~km/s and are dominated by the main classical belt.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Report on Mega-Constellations to the Government of Canada and the Canadian Space Agency

This document provides recommendations to the Government of Canada and the Canadian Space Agency in response to their call for feedback on the future of Canadian space exploration. The report focuses on how the construction and long-term placement of mega-constellations of satellites into Earth orbit will affect astronomy and the view of the night sky by all peoples, with attention to all Canadians. The broader discussion highlights several environmental concerns associated with the construction and maintenance of these mega-constellations. The eight recommendations here address ways that Canada can play a role in mitigating some of these negative effects through national and international initiatives. In drafting the recommendations, we take the approach that space needs to be developed sustainably. In this regard, we use the Brundtland Report's definition: "Sustainable development is the development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." Thus, all recommendations here are made with the intent of minimizing the negative consequences of mega-constellations, while also recognizing that their development will continue.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2021

Col-OSSOS: The Distinct Colour Distribution of Single and Binary Cold Classical KBOs

The cold classical Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) possess a high, $\gtrsim30\%$ binary fraction. Widely separated and dynamically fragile, these binary systems have been useful in tracing the origins of KBOs. A new class of binaries was recently identified by their colours. The so-called blue binaries are unanimously members of the less red compositional class, and exhibit a 100% binary fraction. They appear to be push-out survivors, emplaced in the classical region during Neptune's phases of outward migration. The presence of these binary systems implies that the majority of objects that formed near the cold classical region formed as binaries. Here we present new optical colour measurements of cold classical KBOs from the Colours of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, including colours of a blue binary discovered by the Solar System Origins Legacy Survey -- 2015 RJ277. The increased size of the colours sample has resulted in order-of-magnitude decrease in the probability that the binaries and singles sample share the same colour distribution. From the Anderson-Darling statistic, this probability is only a 0.3%, while it is only 0.002% when utilizing the difference of means statistic. We find a hint that the blue binaries have inflated free inclinations compared to their red counterparts, consistent with the push-out origin for these bodies.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

The Sizes and Albedos of Centaurs 2014 YY $_{49}$ and 2013 NL $_{24}$ from Stellar Occultation Measurements by RECON

In 2019, the Research and Education Collaborative Occultation Network (RECON) obtained multiple-chord occultation measurements of two centaur objects: 2014 YY$_{49}$ on 2019 January 28 and 2013 NL$_{24}$ on 2019 September 4. RECON is a citizen-science telescope network designed to observe high-uncertainty occultations by outer solar system objects. Adopting circular models for the object profiles, we derive a radius $r=16^{+2}_{-1}$km and a geometric albedo $p_V=0.13^{+0.015}_{-0.024}$ for 2014 YY$_{49}$, and a radius $r=66 ^{+5}_{-5}$km and geometric albedo $p_V = 0.045^{+0.006}_{-0.008}$ for 2013 NL$_{24}$. To the precision of these measurements, no atmosphere or rings are detected for either object. The two objects measured here are among the smallest distant objects measured with the stellar occultation technique. In addition to these geometric constraints, the occultation measurements provide astrometric constraints for these two centaurs at a higher precision than has been feasible by direct imaging. To supplement the occultation results, we also present an analysis of color photometry from the Pan-STARRS surveys to constrain the rotational light curve amplitudes and spectral colors of these two centaurs. We recommend that future work focus on photometry to more deliberately constrain the objects' colors and light curve amplitudes, and on follow-on occultation efforts informed by this astrometry.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

A Single-chord Stellar Occultation by the Extreme Trans-Neptunian Object (541132) Leleākūhonua

A stellar occultation by the extreme large-perihelion trans-Neptunian object (541132) Leleākūhonua (also known by the provisional designation of 2015 TG387) was predicted by the Lucky Star project and observed with the Research and Education Collaborative Occultation Network on 2018 October 20 UT. A single detection and a nearby nondetection provide constraints for the size and albedo. When a circular profile is assumed, the radius is $r={110}_{-10}^{+14}$ km, corresponding to a geometric albedo ${p}_{V}={0.21}_{-0.05}^{+0.03}$, for an adopted absolute magnitude of H V = 5.6, typical of other objects in dynamically similar orbits. The occultation also provides a high-precision astrometric constraint.

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