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Jaakko Pere

Publications and source records attributed to Jaakko Pere.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Stationary subspace analysis for spatial data

Stationary subspace analysis (SSA) is a blind source separation framework that decomposes linearly mixed multivariate data into stationary and nonstationary components. We extend SSA to spatially indexed data by introducing spatial stationary subspace analysis (spSSA), which explicitly accounts for spatial dependence. We propose three estimation procedures for the unmixing matrix based on first- and second-order spatial statistics. Each procedure targets a different type of nonstationarity and can be formulated as the solution to a generalized eigenvalue problem. To address situations where multiple forms of nonstationarity are present simultaneously, we combine the three procedures using approximate joint diagonalization. Simulation studies demonstrate that this combined approach yields superior separation performance. When the dimension of the nonstationary subspace is known, the proposed methods reliably recover the latent stationary and nonstationary components. However, determining this dimension remains a fundamental challenge in SSA, for which no generally accepted solution currently exists. Building on our estimation procedures, we propose a novel data augmentation approach to estimate the dimension of the nonstationary subspace and demonstrate its effectiveness through simulation studies. The proposed methodology is easily transferable to time series settings, making it of broader methodological interest.

stat.ME

Moment Estimator-Based Extreme Quantile Estimation with Erroneous Observations: Application to Elliptical Extreme Quantile Region Estimation

In many application areas of extreme value theory, the variables of interest are not directly observable but instead contain errors. In this article, we quantify the effect of these errors in moment-based extreme value index estimation, and in corresponding extreme quantile estimation. We consider all, short-, light-, and heavy-tailed distributions. In particular, we derive conditions under which the error is asymptotically negligible. As an application, we consider affine equivariant extreme quantile region estimation under multivariate elliptical distributions.

math.ST

Zombie Epidemic -- on Modeling the Effect of Interventions

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need of studying extreme, life-threatening phenomena in advance. In this article, a zombie epidemic in Uusimaa region in Finland is modeled. A stochastic agent based simulation model is proposed and extensive simulations are conducted for this purpose. The model utilizes knowledge on defensive human behavior during crises. Studying the effects of a hypothetical zombie attack resembles examining the spread of deadly diseases and of rumors. A zombie attack is simulated in the most densely populated region in Finland. The region's exact population densities over its rasterized geographical map are utilized. Furthermore, the simulations are used to study the effect of implementing a (strict or partial) quarantine area in the epicenter. Computationally efficient Scala codes and video animations of the simulated epidemics are provided. The main findings emphasize the importance of implementing very strict measures, without delay, to stop the outbreak.

stat.AP

On the Impact of Approximation Errors on Extreme Quantile Estimation with Applications to Functional Data Analysis

We study the effect of approximation errors in assessing the extreme behavior of heavy-tailed random objects. We give conditions for the approximation error such that the standard asymptotic results hold for the classical Hill estimator and the corresponding extreme quantile estimator. As an application, we consider the effect of discretization errors in the computation of the $L^p$-norms related to functional data. We approximate the norms both with Riemann sums and with Monte Carlo integration. We quantify connections between the number of observed functions, the number of discretization points, and the regularity of the underlying functions. In addition, we derive a new concentration inequality for order statistics. This, to the best of our knowledge, is the first Chernoff-type concentration inequality for order statistics presented in the literature that provides an explicit rate at which the ratio between order statistics and tail quantile function converges to one. In our application, the bound is used to provide concentration inequalities measuring the distance between the Hill estimator based on approximated norms and the one based on the true ones.

math.ST