arXiv subjects

Jack Heinzel

Publications and source records attributed to Jack Heinzel.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Binary-black hole spin population results may be driven by prior degeneracies

Gravitational waves carry information on the spins of merging binary-black holes. The orientations of their spins relative to their orbits ("tilts")---while challenging to measure---differentiate the astrophysical formation mechanisms by which merging black hole binaries may form. Multiple analyses have reported tentative evidence that black hole spins are preferentially oriented in the plane of the binary orbit. We show that these results are likely extrapolated from more easily measurable "effective spin" parameters which characterize the gravitational-wave inspiral of black hole binaries but may not uniquely constrain their astrophysical formation. In particular, we reproduce a peak in the spin tilt distribution with information about the marginal effective spin distributions alone. We propose a geometric picture to compare constraints on effective spins to standard population modeling assumptions, suggesting that current inferences of a preferred spin orientation are spurious.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

Evidence for additional structure in the effective spin distribution hints at multiple formation pathways in GWTC-5.0

The distribution of the effective inspiral spin ($\chi_\mathrm{eff}$) of the binary black holes detected by LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA can shed light on their formation pathways. We analyze the GWTC-5.0 dataset with two models-one flexible, one fully parametric-that jointly describe $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ and primary mass. We clarify that the previously-reported skewness in the $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ distribution is better understood as additional structure beyond a non-skewed Gaussian bulk centered at small $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$. This additional structure extends to larger $|\chi_\mathrm{eff}|$, a result previously reported using GWTC-4.0 data. We measure the asymmetry of the distribution of $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ outside the Gaussian bulk from the data. With both the parametric and the flexible analyses, we find suggestive evidence for a mass-dependent excess of positive $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ over negative ones outside the Gaussian bulk. We find only a mild statistical preference for a negative $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ component outside the Gaussian bulk. This preference is highest at $m_1 \in [47,65]\,M_\odot$, with $13\text{:}1$ odds. Excluding the event GW191109, whose data have known data-quality issues, reduces these odds to $5\text{:}1$. If $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$ outside the Gaussian bulk are produced by hierarchical mergers-as has been suggested-then a fraction of those mergers may be produced in environments that can generate a surplus of binaries with positive $\chi_\mathrm{eff}$, such as the disks of active galactic nuclei.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves

Pair-instability supernovae leave behind no compact remnants, resulting in a predicted gap in the distribution of stellar black-hole masses. Gravitational waves from binary black-hole mergers probe the relevant mass range and analyses of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog (GWTC-4) indicate a possible mass cutoff at $40$-$50\,M_\odot$. However, the robustness of this result remains unclear. To this end, using full Bayesian parameter estimation, we simulate gravitational-wave catalogs with and without such a mass cutoff, then test whether its presence or absence is correctly inferred with parametric population models. For catalogs similar to GWTC-4, confident identification of a cutoff is not guaranteed, but the best constraints among our simulations are compatible with results from GWTC-4 when the model includes a cutoff. Conversely, spurious identification of a cutoff is unlikely. For catalogs expected by the end of the O4 observing run, uncertainty in the cutoff mass is reduced by $\gtrsim20\,\%$, but a cutoff at 40-50$M_\odot$ yields only a lower bound on the $^{12}\mathrm{C}(\alpha,\gamma)^{16}\mathrm{O}$ reaction rate, our most stringent constraints on the S-factor at $300\,\mathrm{keV}$ being $S_{300}\gtrsim125\,\mathrm{keV}\,\mathrm{b}$ at $90\,\%$ credibility. Relative uncertainties on the Hubble parameter $H_0$ from gravitational-wave data alone can still be up to $100\,\%$. We also analyze GWTC-4 with the nonparametric PixelPop population model, finding that some mass features are more prominent than in parametric models but a sharp cutoff is not required. However, the parametric model passes a likelihood-based predictive test in GWTC-4 and the PixelPop results are consistent with those from our simulated catalogs with a cutoff. Such tests are necessary to make astrophysical claims from gravitational-wave catalogs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Reducing systematic uncertainties in gravitational-wave population analyses by increasing the detection threshold

From catalogs of gravitational-wave transients, the population-level properties of their sources and the formation channels of merging compact binaries can be constrained. However, astrophysical conclusions can be biased by misspecification or misestimation of the population likelihood. Despite detection thresholds on the false-alarm rate (FAR) or signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the current catalog is likely contaminated by noise transients. Further, computing the population likelihood becomes less accurate as the catalog grows. Current methods to address these challenges often scale poorly with the number of events and potentially become infeasible for future catalogs. Here, we evaluate a simple remedy: increasing the significance threshold for including events in population analyses. To determine the efficacy of this approach, we analyze simulated catalogs of up to 1600 gravitational-wave signals from black-hole mergers using full Bayesian parameter estimation with current detector sensitivities. We show that the growth in statistical uncertainty about the black-hole population, as we analyze fewer events but with higher SNR, depends on the source parameters of interest. When the SNR threshold is raised from 11 to 15---reducing our catalog size by two--thirds---we find that statistical uncertainties on the mass distribution only grow by a few 10% and constraints on the spin distribution are essentially unchanged; meanwhile, uncertainties on the high-redshift cosmic merger rate more than double. Simultaneously, numerical uncertainty in the estimate of the population likelihood more than halves, allowing us to ensure unbiased inference without additional computational expense. Our results demonstrate that focusing on higher-significance events is an effective way to facilitate robust astrophysical inference with growing gravitational-wave catalogs.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2025

When (not) to trust Monte Carlo approximations for hierarchical Bayesian inference

The coming years of gravitational wave astrophysics promises thousands of new detections, which can unlock fundamental scientific insights if the information in each observation can be properly synthesized into a coherent picture. State-of-the-art approaches often accomplish this with hierarchical Bayesian inference. However, this typically relies on Monte Carlo approximations that are already very expensive in current data, and may become prohibitively so in the future. In this paper we show how this process can be understood from a first-principles statistical approach. We derive an error estimator $\hat{E}$ for quantifying the amount of information that is lost due to the Monte Carlo approximation and recommend that this error is limited to no more than $\hat{E} \lesssim 0.2$ bits for reliable inference. We also show that the hierarchical likelihood estimator is biased but may be corrected. Finally, we show some practical examples for inference on synthetic gravitational-wave population inference, demonstrating that simple models with strong assumptions can be much more stable to Monte Carlo uncertainty than those with weaker assumptions. We also provide a \texttt{pip}-installable package \texttt{population-error} with which analysts can calculate the error statistics $\hat{E}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Evidence of the pair instability gap from black hole masses

Stellar theory predicts a forbidden range of black-hole masses between ${\sim}50$--$130\,M_\odot$ due to pair-instability supernovae, but evidence for such a gap in the mass distribution from gravitational-wave astronomy has proved elusive. Early hints of a cutoff in black-hole masses at ${\sim} 45\,M_\odot$ disappeared with the subsequent discovery of more massive binary black holes. Here, we report evidence of the pair-instability gap in LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's fourth gravitational wave transient catalog (GWTC-4), with a lower boundary of $44_{-4}^{+5} M_\odot$ (90\% credibility). While the gap is not present in the distribution of \textit{primary} masses $m_1$ (the bigger of the two black holes in a binary system), it appears unambiguously in the distribution of \textit{secondary} masses $m_2$, where $m_2 \leq m_1$. The location of the gap lines up well with a previously identified transition in the binary black-hole spin distribution; binaries with primary components in the gap tend to spin more rapidly than those below the gap. We interpret these findings as evidence for a subpopulation of hierarchical mergers: binaries where the primary component is the product of a previous black-hole merger and thus populates the gap. Our measurement of the location of the pair-instability gap constrains the $S$-factor for $^{12}\rm{C}(\alpha,\gamma)^{16}\rm{O}$ at 300keV to $260_{-108}^{+190}$ keV barns.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Nowhere left to hide: revealing realistic gravitational-wave populations in high dimensions and high resolution with PixelPop

The origins of merging compact binaries observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors remain uncertain, with multiple astrophysical channels possibly contributing to the merger rate. Formation processes can imprint nontrivial correlations in the underlying distribution of source properties, but current understanding of the overall population relies heavily on simplified and uncorrelated parametric models. In this work, we use PixelPop-a high-resolution Bayesian nonparametric model with minimal assumptions-to analyze multidimensional correlations in the astrophysical distribution of masses, spins, and redshifts of black-hole mergers from mock gravitational-wave catalogs constructed using population-synthesis simulations. With full parameter estimation on 400 detections at current sensitivities, we show explicitly that neglecting population-level correlations biases inference. In contrast, modeling all significant correlations with PixelPop allows us to correctly measure the astrophysical merger rate across all source parameters. We then propose a nonparametric method to distinguish between different formation channels by comparing the PixelPop results back to astrophysical simulations. For our simulated catalog, we find that only formation channels with significantly different physical processes are distinguishable, whereas channels that share evolutionary stages are not. Given the substantial uncertainties in source formation, our results highlight the necessity of multidimensional astrophysics-agnostic models like PixelPop for robust interpretation of gravitational-wave catalogs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

PixelPop: High Resolution Nonparameteric Inference of Gravitational-Wave Populations in Multiple Dimensions

The origins of merging compact binaries observed by gravitational-wave detectors remains highly uncertain. Several astrophysical channels may contribute to the overall merger rate, with distinct formation processes imprinted on the structure and correlations in the underlying distributions of binary source parameters. In the absence of confident theoretical models, the current understanding of this population mostly relies on simple parametric models that make strong assumptions and are prone to misspecification. Recent work has made progress using more flexible nonparametric models, but detailed measurement of the multidimensional population remains challenging. In pursuit of this, we present PixelPop-a high resolution Bayesian nonparametric model to infer joint distributions and parameter correlations with minimal assumptions. PixelPop densely bins the joint parameter space and directly infers the merger rate in each bin, assuming only that bins are coupled to their nearest neighbors. We demonstrate this method on mock populations with and without bivariate source correlations, employing several statistical metrics for information gain and correlation significance to quantify our nonparametric results. We show that PixelPop correctly recovers the true populations within posterior uncertainties and offers a conservative assessment of population-level features and parameter correlations. Its flexibility and tractability make it a useful data-driven tool to probe gravitational-wave populations in multiple dimensions.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Nonparametric analysis of correlations in the binary black hole population with LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data

Formation channels of merging compact binaries imprint themselves on the distributions and correlations of their source parameters, but current understanding of this population is hindered by simplified parametric models. We overcome such limitations using PixelPop [Heinzel et al. (2025)]-our Bayesian nonparametric multidimensional population model. We analyze data from the first three LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs and make high resolution, minimally modeled measurements of the pairwise distributions of binary black hole masses, redshifts, and spins. We find no evidence that the mass spectrum evolves over redshift and show that such measurements are fundamentally limited by the detector horizon. We find support for correlations of the spin distribution with binary mass ratio and redshift, but at reduced significance compared to overly constraining parametric models. Confident data-driven conclusions about population-level correlations with flexible models like PixelPop will require more informative gravitational-wave catalogs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

An updated nuclear-physics and multi-messenger astrophysics framework for binary neutron star mergers

The multi-messenger detection of the gravitational-wave signal GW170817, the corresponding kilonova AT2017gfo and the short gamma-ray burst GRB170817A, as well as the observed afterglow has delivered a scientific breakthrough. For an accurate interpretation of all these different messengers, one requires robust theoretical models that describe the emitted gravitational-wave, the electromagnetic emission, and dense matter reliably. In addition, one needs efficient and accurate computational tools to ensure a correct cross-correlation between the models and the observational data. For this purpose, we have developed the Nuclear-physics and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics framework NMMA. The code allows incorporation of nuclear-physics constraints at low densities as well as X-ray and radio observations of isolated neutron stars. In previous works, the NMMA code has allowed us to constrain the equation of state of supranuclear dense matter, to measure the Hubble constant, and to compare dense-matter physics probed in neutron-star mergers and in heavy-ion collisions, and to classify electromagnetic observations and perform model selection. Here, we show an extension of the NMMA code as a first attempt of analyzing the gravitational-wave signal, the kilonova, and the gamma-ray burst afterglow simultaneously. Incorporating all available information, we estimate the radius of a $1.4M_\odot$ neutron star to be $R=11.98^{+0.35}_{-0.40}$km.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Probing Correlations in the Binary Black Hole Population with Flexible Models

The astrophysical formation channels of binary black hole systems predict correlations between their mass, spin, and redshift distributions, which can be probed with gravitational-wave observations. Population-level analysis of the latest LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog of binary black hole mergers has identified evidence for such correlations assuming linear evolution of the mean and width of the effective spin distribution as a function of the binary mass ratio and merger redshift. However, the complex astrophysical processes at play in compact binary formation do not necessarily predict linear relationships between the distributions of these parameters. In this work, we relax the assumption of linearity and instead search for correlations using a more flexible cubic spline model. Our results suggest a nonlinear correlation between the width of the effective spin distribution and redshift. We also show that the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra collaborations may find convincing Bayesian evidence for nonlinear correlations by the end of the fourth observing run, O4. This highlights the valuable role of flexible models in population analyses of compact-object binaries in the era of growing catalogs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

Inferring the Astrophysical Population of Gravitational Wave Sources in the Presence of Noise Transients

The global network of interferometric gravitational wave (GW) observatories (LIGO, Virgo, KAGRA) has detected and characterized nearly 100 mergers of binary compact objects. However, many more real GWs are lurking sub-threshold, which need to be sifted from terrestrial-origin noise triggers (known as glitches). Because glitches are not due to astrophysical phenomena, inference on the glitch under the assumption it has an astrophysical source (e.g. binary black hole coalescence) results in source parameters that are inconsistent with what is known about the astrophysical population. In this work, we show how one can extract unbiased population constraints from a catalog of both real GW events and glitch contaminants by performing Bayesian inference on their source populations simultaneously. In this paper, we assume glitches come from a specific class with a well-characterized effective population (blip glitches). We also calculate posteriors on the probability of each event in the catalog belonging to the astrophysical or glitch class, and obtain posteriors on the number of astrophysical events in the catalog, finding it to be consistent with the actual number of events included.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2021

On the nature of GW190814 and its impact on the understanding of supranuclear matter

The observation of a compact object with a mass of $2.50-2.67M_{\odot}$ on August 14, 2019, by the LIGO Scientific and Virgo collaborations (LVC) has the potential to improve our understanding of the supranuclear equation of state. While the gravitational-wave analysis of the LVC suggests that GW190814 likely was a binary black hole system, the secondary component could also have been the heaviest neutron star observed to date. We use our previously derived nuclear-physics-multimessenger astrophysics framework to address the nature of this object. Based on our findings, we determine GW190814 to be a binary black hole merger with a probability of $>99.9\%$. Even if we weaken previously employed constraints on the maximum mass of neutron stars, the probability of a binary black hole origin is still $\sim 81\%$. Furthermore, we study the impact that this observation has on our understanding of the nuclear equation of state by analyzing the allowed region in the mass-radius diagram of neutron stars for both a binary black hole or neutron star--black hole scenario. We find that the unlikely scenario in which the secondary object was a neutron star requires rather stiff equations of state with a maximum speed of sound $c_s\geq \sqrt{0.6}$ times the speed of light, while the binary black hole scenario does not offer any new insight.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Multi-messenger constraints on the neutron-star equation of state and the Hubble constant

Observations of neutron-star mergers based on distinct messengers, including gravitational waves and electromagnetic signals, can be used to study the behavior of matter denser than an atomic nucleus, and to measure the expansion rate of the Universe described by the Hubble constant. We perform a joint analysis of the gravitational-wave signal GW170817 with its electromagnetic counterparts AT2017gfo and GRB170817A, and the gravitational-wave signal GW190425, both originating from neutron-star mergers. We combine these with previous measurements of pulsars using X-ray and radio observations, and nuclear-theory computations using chiral effective field theory to constrain the neutron-star equation of state. We find that the radius of a $1.4$ solar mass neutron star is $11.75^{+0.86}_{-0.81}\ \rm km$ at $90\%$ confidence and the Hubble constant is $66.2^{+4.4}_{-4.2}\ \rm km \,Mpc^{-1}\, s^{-1}$ at $1σ$ uncertainty.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Measuring the Hubble Constant with a sample of kilonovae

Kilonovae produced by the coalescence of compact binaries with at least one neutron star are promising standard sirens for an independent measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). Through their detection via follow-up of gravitational-wave (GW), short gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs) or optical surveys, a large sample of kilonovae (even without GW data) can be used for $H_0$ contraints. Here, we show measurement of $H_0$ using light curves associated with four sGRBs, assuming these are attributable to kilonovae, combined with GW170817. Including a systematic uncertainty on the models that is as large as the statistical ones, we find $H_0 = 73.8^{+6.3}_{-5.8}$\,$\mathrm{km}$ $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and $H_0 = 71.2^{+3.2}_{-3.1}$\,$\mathrm{km}$ $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for two different kilonova models that are consistent with the local and inverse-distance ladder measurements. For a given model, this measurement is about a factor of 2-3 more precise than the standard-siren measurement for GW170817 using only GWs.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

On standardizing kilonovae and their use as standard candles to measure the Hubble constant

The detection of GW170817 is revolutionizing many areas of astrophysics with the joint observation of gravitational waves and electromagnetic emissions. These multi-messenger events provide a new approach to determine the Hubble constant, thus, they are a promising candidate for mitigating the tension between measurements of Type Ia supernovae via the local distance ladder and the Cosmic Microwave Background. In addition to the "standard siren" provided by the gravitational-wave measurement, the kilonova itself has characteristics that allow to improve existing measurements or to perform yet another, independent measurement of the Hubble constant without gravitational-wave information. Here, we employ standardization techniques borrowed from the type-Ia community and apply them to kilonovae, not using any information from the gravitational-wave signal. We use two versions of this technique, one derived from direct observables measured from the lightcurve, and the other based on inferred ejecta parameters, e.g., mass, velocity, and composition, for two different models. These lead to Hubble Constant measurements of $H_0 = 109^{+49}_{-35}$\,km $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for the measured analysis, and $H_0 = 85^{+22}_{-17}$\,km $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ and $H_0 = 79^{+23}_{-15}$\,km $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for the inferred analyses. This measurement has error bars within ~$\sim$\,2 to the gravitational-wave measurements ($H_0=74^{+16}_{-8}$\,km $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ $\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$), showing its promise as an independent constraint on $H_0$.

astro-ph.HE↗