arXiv subjects

Jackson Fogelquist

Publications and source records attributed to Jackson Fogelquist.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Accelerating Bayesian Optimization for Nonlinear State-Space System Identification with Application to Lithium-Ion Batteries

This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) to address this problem by leveraging its derivative-free global search capability enabled by surrogate modeling of the likelihood function. Despite these advantages, standard BayesOpt often suffers from slow convergence, high computational cost, and practical difficulty in attaining global optima under limited computational budgets, especially for high-dimensional nonlinear models with many unknown parameters. To overcome these limitations, we propose an accelerated BayesOpt framework that integrates BayesOpt with the Nelder--Mead method. Heuristics-based, the Nelder--Mead method provides fast local search, thereby assisting BayesOpt when the surrogate model lacks fidelity or when over-exploration occurs in broad parameter spaces. The proposed framework incorporates a principled strategy to coordinate the two methods, effectively combining their complementary strengths. The resulting hybrid approach significantly improves both convergence speed and computational efficiency while maintaining strong global search performance. In addition, we leverage an implicit particle filtering method to enable accurate and efficient likelihood evaluation. We validate the proposed framework on the identification of the BattX model for lithium-ion batteries, which features ten state dimensions, 18 unknown parameters, and strong nonlinearity. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach as well as its advantages over alternative methods.

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arXiv2025

Machine Learning Detection of Lithium Plating in Lithium-ion Cells: A Gaussian Process Approach

Lithium plating during fast charging is a critical degradation mechanism that accelerates capacity fade and can trigger catastrophic safety failures. Recent work has shown that plating onset can manifest in incremental-capacity analysis as an additional high-voltage feature above 4.0 V, often appearing as a secondary peak or shoulder distinct from the main intercalation peak complex; however, conventional methods for computing dQ/dV rely on finite differencing with filtering, which amplifies sensor noise and introduces bias in feature location. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian Process (GP) framework for lithium plating detection by directly modeling the charge-voltage relationship Q(V) as a stochastic process with calibrated uncertainty. Leveraging the property that derivatives of GPs remain GPs, we infer dQ/dV analytically and probabilistically from the posterior, enabling robust detection without ad hoc smoothing. The framework provides three key benefits: (i) noise-aware inference with hyperparameters learned from data, (ii) closed-form derivatives with credible intervals for uncertainty quantification, and (iii) scalability to online variants suitable for embedded BMS. Experimental validation on Li-ion coin cells across a range of C-rates (0.2C-1C) and temperatures (0-40$^\circ$C) demonstrates that the GP-based method reliably resolves distinct high-voltage secondary peak features under low-temperature, high-rate charging, while correctly reporting no features in non-plating cases. The concurrence of GP-identified differential features, reduced charge throughput, capacity fade measured via reference performance tests, and post-mortem microscopy confirmation supports the interpretation of these signatures as plating-related, establishing a practical pathway for real-time lithium plating detection.

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arXiv2025

Joint Parameterization of Hybrid Physics-Based and Machine Learning Li-Ion Battery Model

Electrochemical hybrid battery models have major potential to enable advanced physics-based control, diagnostic, and prognostic features for next-generation lithium-ion battery management systems. This is due to the physical significance of the electrochemical model, which is complemented by a machine learning model that compensates for output prediction errors caused by system uncertainties. While hybrid models have demonstrated robust output prediction performance under large system uncertainties, they are highly susceptible to the influence of uncertainties during parameter identification, which can compromise the physical significance of the model. To address this challenge, we present a parameter estimation framework that explicitly considers system uncertainties through a discrepancy function. The approach also incorporates a downsampling procedure to address the computational barriers associated with large time-series data sets, as are typical in the battery domain. The framework was validated in simulation, yielding several mean parameter estimation errors that were one order of magnitude smaller than those of the conventional least squares approach. While developed for the high-uncertainty, electrochemical hybrid modeling context, the estimation framework is applicable to all models and is presented in a generalized form.

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arXiv2025

Robust Estimation of Battery State of Health Using Reference Voltage Trajectory

Accurate estimation of state of health (SOH) is critical for battery applications. Current model-based SOH estimation methods typically rely on low C-rate constant current tests to extract health parameters like solid phase volume fraction and lithium-ion stoichiometry, which are often impractical in real-world scenarios due to time and operational constraints. Additionally, these methods are susceptible to modeling uncertainties that can significantly degrade the estimation accuracy, especially when jointly estimating multiple parameters. In this paper, we present a novel reference voltage-based method for robust battery SOH estimation. This method utilizes the voltage response of a battery under a predefined current excitation at the beginning of life (BOL) as a reference to compensate for modeling uncertainty. As the battery degrades, the same excitation is applied to generate the voltage response, which is compared with the BOL trajectory to estimate the key health parameters accurately. The current excitation is optimally designed using the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to maximize the information content of the target parameters. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed method significantly improves parameter estimation accuracy under different degradation levels, compared to conventional methods relying only on direct voltage measurements. Furthermore, our method jointly estimates four key SOH parameters in only 10 minutes, making it practical for real-world battery health diagnostics, e.g., fast testing to enable battery repurposing.

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