arXiv subjects

Jacob L. Bean

Publications and source records attributed to Jacob L. Bean.

At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Transits of Known Planets Orbiting a Naked-Eye Star

Some of the most scientifically valuable transiting planets are those that were already known from radial velocity (RV) surveys. This is primarily because their orbits are well characterized and they preferentially orbit bright stars that are the targets of RV surveys. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ({\it TESS}) provides an opportunity to survey most of the known exoplanet systems in a systematic fashion to detect possible transits of their planets. HD~136352 (Nu$^2$~Lupi) is a naked-eye ($V = 5.78$) G-type main-sequence star that was discovered to host three planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6, and 108.1 days via RV monitoring with the HARPS spectrograph. We present the detection and characterization of transits for the two inner planets of the HD~136352 system, revealing radii of $1.482^{+0.058}_{-0.056}$~$R_\oplus$ and $2.608^{+0.078}_{-0.077}$~$R_\oplus$ for planets b and c, respectively. We combine new HARPS observations with RV data from Keck/HIRES and the AAT, along with {\it TESS} photometry from Sector 12, to perform a complete analysis of the system parameters. The combined data analysis results in extracted bulk density values of $ρ_b = 7.8^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$~gcm$^{-3}$ and $ρ_c = 3.50^{+0.41}_{-0.36}$~gcm$^{-3}$ for planets b and c, respectively, thus placing them on either side of the radius valley. The combination of the multi-transiting planet system, the bright host star, and the diversity of planetary interiors and atmospheres means this will likely become a cornerstone system for atmospheric and orbital characterization of small worlds.

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arXiv2020

A transition between the hot and the ultra-hot Jupiter atmospheres

[Abridged] A key hypothesis in the field of exoplanet atmospheres is the trend of atmospheric thermal structure with planetary equilibrium temperature. We explore this trend and report here the first statistical detection of a transition in the near-infrared (NIR) atmospheric emission between hot and ultra-hot Jupiters. We measure this transition using secondary eclipse observations and interpret this phenomenon as changes in atmospheric properties, and more specifically in terms of transition from non-inverted to inverted thermal profiles. We examine a sample of 78 hot Jupiters with secondary eclipse measurements at 3.6 μm and 4.5 μm measured with Spitzer Infrared Array Camera (IRAC). We measure the deviation of the data from the blackbody, which we define as the difference between the observed 4.5 μm eclipse depth and that expected at this wavelength based on the brightness temperature measured at 3.6 μm. We study how the deviation between 3.6 and 4.5 μm changes with theoretical predictions with equilibrium temperature and incoming stellar irradiation. We reveal a clear transition in the observed emission spectra of the hot Jupiter population at 1660 +/- 100 K in the zero albedo, full redistribution equilibrium temperature. We find the hotter exoplanets have even hotter daysides at 4.5 μm compared to 3.6 μm, which manifests as an exponential increase in the emitted power of the planets with stellar insolation. We propose that the measured transition is a result of seeing carbon monoxide in emission due to the formation of temperature inversions in the atmospheres of the hottest planets. These thermal inversions could be caused by the presence of atomic and molecular species with high opacities in the optical and/or the lack of cooling species. We find that the population of hot Jupiters statistically disfavors high C/O planets (C/O>= 0.85).

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arXiv2020

Exploring the atmospheric dynamics of the extreme ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b using TESS photometry

We carry out a phase-curve analysis of the KELT-9 system using photometric observations from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The measured secondary eclipse depth and peak-to-peak atmospheric brightness modulation are $650^{+14}_{-15}$ ppm and $566\pm16$ ppm, respectively. The planet's brightness variation reaches maximum $31\pm5$ minutes before the midpoint of the secondary eclipse, indicating a $5\overset{\circ}{.}2\pm0\overset{\circ}{.}9$ eastward shift in the dayside hot spot from the substellar point. We also detect stellar pulsations on KELT-9 with a period of $7.58695\pm0.00091$ hours. The dayside emission of KELT-9b in the TESS bandpass is consistent with a blackbody brightness temperature of $4600\pm100$ K. The corresponding nightside brightness temperature is $3040\pm100$ K, comparable to the dayside temperatures of the hottest known exoplanets. In addition, we detect a significant phase-curve signal at the first harmonic of the orbital frequency and a marginal signal at the second harmonic. While the amplitude of the first harmonic component is consistent with the predicted ellipsoidal distortion modulation assuming equilibrium tides, the phase of this photometric variation is shifted relative to the expectation. Placing KELT-9b in the context of other exoplanets with phase-curve observations, we find that the elevated nightside temperature and relatively low day-night temperature contrast agree with the predictions of atmospheric models that include H$_{2}$ dissociation and recombination. The nightside temperature of KELT-9b implies an atmospheric composition containing about 50% molecular and 50% atomic hydrogen at 0.1 bar, a nightside emission spectrum that deviates significantly from a blackbody, and a 0.5-2.0 $μ$m transmission spectrum that is featureless at low resolution.

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arXiv2020

Flare Statistics for Young Stars from a Convolutional Neural Network Analysis of $\textit{TESS}$ Data

All-sky photometric time-series missions have allowed for the monitoring of thousands of young ($t_{\rm age} < 800$Myr) to understand the evolution of stellar activity. Here we developed a convolutional neural network (CNN), $\texttt{stella}$, specifically trained to find flares in $\textit{Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite}$ ($\textit{TESS}$) short-cadence data. We applied the network to 3200 young stars to evaluate flare rates as a function of age and spectral type. The CNN takes a few seconds to identify flares on a single light curve. We also measured rotation periods for 1500 of our targets and find that flares of all amplitudes are present across all spot phases, suggesting high spot coverage across the entire surface. Additionally, flare rates and amplitudes decrease for stars $t_{\rm age} > 50$Myr across all temperatures $T_{\rm eff} \geq 4000$K, while stars from $2300 \leq T_{\rm eff} < 4000$K show no evolution across 800 Myr. Stars of $T_{\rm eff} \leq 4000$K also show higher flare rates and amplitudes across all ages. We investigate the effects of high flare rates on photoevaporative atmospheric mass loss for young planets. In the presence of flares, planets lose 4-7% more atmosphere over the first 1 Gyr. $\texttt{stella}$ is an open-source Python tool-kit hosted on GitHub and PyPI.

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arXiv2020

A super-Earth and two sub-Neptunes transiting the nearby and quiet M dwarf TOI-270

We report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite discovery of three small planets transiting one of the nearest and brightest M dwarf hosts to date, TOI-270 (TIC 259377017; K-mag 8.3; 22.5 parsec). The M3V-type star is transited by the super-Earth-sized TOI-270 b (1.247+0.089-0.083 R_earth) and the sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets TOI-270 c (2.42+-0.13 R_earth) and TOI-270 d (2.13+-0.12 R_earth). The planets orbit close to a mean-motion resonant chain, with periods (3.36, 5.66, and 11.38 days) near ratios of small integers (5:3 and 2:1). TOI-270 is a prime target for future studies since: 1) its near-resonance allows detecting transit timing variations for precise mass measurements and dynamical studies; 2) its brightness enables independent radial velocity mass measurements; 3) the outer planets are ideal for atmospheric characterisation via transmission spectroscopy; and 4) the quiet star enables future searches for habitable zone planets. Altogether, very few systems with small, temperate exoplanets are as suitable for such complementary and detailed characterisation as TOI-270.

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arXiv2020

Smaller than expected bright-spot offsets in Spitzer phase curves of the hot Jupiter Qatar-1b

We present \textit{Spitzer} full-orbit thermal phase curves of the hot Jupiter Qatar-1b, a planet with the same equilibrium temperature---and intermediate surface gravity and orbital period---as the well-studied planets HD 209458b and WASP-43b. We measure secondary eclipse of $0.21 \pm 0.02 \%$ at $3.6~μ$m and $0.30 \pm 0.02 \%$ at $4.5~μ$m, corresponding to dayside brightness temperatures of $1542^{+32}_{-31}$~K and $1557^{+35}_{-36}$~K, respectively, consistent with a vertically isothermal dayside. The respective nightside brightness temperatures are $1117^{+76}_{-71}$~K and $1167^{+69}_{-74}$~K, in line with a trend that hot Jupiters all have similar nightside temperatures. We infer a Bond albedo of $0.12_{-0.16}^{+0.14}$ and a moderate day-night heat recirculation efficiency, similar to HD 209458b. General circulation models for HD 209458b and WASP-43b predict that their bright-spots should be shifted east of the substellar point by tens of degrees, and these predictions were previously confirmed with \textit{Spitzer} full-orbit phase curve observations. The phase curves of Qatar-1b are likewise expected to exhibit eastward offsets. Instead, the observed phase curves are consistent with no offset: $11^{\circ}\pm 7^{\circ}$ at $3.6~μ$m and $-4^{\circ}\pm 7^{\circ}$ at $4.5~μ$m. The discrepancy in circulation patterns between these three otherwise similar planets points to the importance of secondary parameters like rotation rate and surface gravity, and the presence or absence of clouds, in determining atmospheric conditions on hot Jupiters.

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arXiv2020

Global Chemistry and Thermal Structure Models for the Hot Jupiter WASP-43b and Predictions for JWST

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to revolutionize the field of exoplanets. The broad wavelength coverage and the high sensitivity of its instruments will allow characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres with unprecedented precision. Following the Call for the Cycle 1 Early Release Science Program, the Transiting Exoplanet Community was awarded time to observe several targets, including WASP-43b. The atmosphere of this hot Jupiter has been intensively observed but still harbors some mysteries, especially concerning the day-night temperature gradient, the efficiency of the atmospheric circulation, and the presence of nightside clouds. We will constrain these properties by observing a full orbit of the planet and extracting its spectroscopic phase curve in the 5--12 $μ$m range with JWST/MIRI. To prepare for these observations, we performed an extensive modeling work with various codes: radiative transfer, chemical kinetics, cloud microphysics, global circulation models, JWST simulators, and spectral retrieval. Our JWST simulations show that we should achieve a precision of 210 ppm per 0.1 $μ$m spectral bin on average, which will allow us to measure the variations of the spectrum in longitude and measure the night-side emission spectrum for the first time. If the atmosphere of WASP-43b is clear, our observations will permit us to determine if its atmosphere has an equilibrium or disequilibrium chemical composition, providing eventually the first conclusive evidence of chemical quenching in a hot Jupiter atmosphere. If the atmosphere is cloudy, a careful retrieval analysis will allow us to identify the cloud composition.

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arXiv2020

Evidence for H$_{2}$ Dissociation and Recombination Heat Transport in the Atmosphere of KELT-9b

Phase curve observations provide an opportunity to study the full energy budgets of exoplanets by quantifying the amount of heat redistributed from their daysides to their nightsides. Theories explaining the properties of phase curves for hot Jupiters have focused on the balance between radiation and dynamics as the primary parameter controlling heat redistribution. However, recent phase curves have shown deviations from the trends that emerge from this theory, which has led to work on additional processes that may affect hot Jupiter energy budgets. One such process, molecular hydrogen dissociation and recombination, can enhance energy redistribution on ultra-hot Jupiters with temperatures above $\sim2000$ K. In order to study the impact of H$_{2}$ dissociation on ultra-hot Jupiters, we present a phase curve of KELT-9b observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope at 4.5 $μ$m. KELT-9b is the hottest known transiting planet, with a 4.5-$μ$m dayside brightness temperature of $4566^{+140}_{-136}$ K and a nightside temperature of $2556^{+101}_{-97}$ K. We observe a phase curve amplitude of $0.609 \pm 0.020$ and a hot spot offset of $18.7^{+2.1}_{-2.3}$ degrees. The observed amplitude is too small to be explained by a simple balance between radiation and advection. General circulation models (GCMs) and an energy balance model that include the effects of H$_{2}$ dissociation and recombination provide a better match to the data. The GCMs, however, predict a maximum hot spot offset of $5$ degrees, which disagrees with our observations at $>5σ$ confidence. This discrepancy may be due to magnetic effects in the planet's highly ionized atmosphere.

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arXiv2019

Analyzing Atmospheric Temperature Profiles and Spectra of M dwarf Rocky Planets

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will open up the possibility of comprehensively measuring the emission spectra of rocky exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs to detect and characterize their atmospheres. In preparation for this opportunity, we present model atmospheres for three M-dwarf planets particularly amenable to secondary eclipse spectroscopy -- TRAPPIST-1b, GJ 1132b, and LHS 3844b. Using three limiting cases of candidate atmospheric compositions (pure H2O, pure CO2 and solar abundances) we calculate temperature-pressure profiles and emission and reflection spectra in radiative-convective equilibrium, including the effects of a solid surface. We find that the atmospheric radiative transfer is significantly influenced by the cool M-star irradiation; H2O and CO2 absorption bands in the near-infrared are strong enough to absorb a sizeable fraction of the incoming stellar light at low pressures, which leads to temperature inversions in the upper atmosphere. The non-gray band structure of gaseous opacities in the infrared is hereby an important factor. Opacity windows are muted at higher atmospheric temperatures, so we expect temperature inversions to be common only for sufficiently cool planets. We also find that pure CO2 atmospheres exhibit lower overall temperatures and stronger reflection spectra compared to models of the other two compositions. We estimate that for GJ 1132b and LHS 3844b we should be able to distinguish between different atmospheric compositions with JWST. The emission lines from the predicted temperature inversions are currently hard to measure, but high resolution spectroscopy with future Extremely Large Telescopes may be able to detect them.

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arXiv2019

Identifying Atmospheres on Rocky Exoplanets Through Inferred High Albedo

The upcoming launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) means that we will soon have the capability to characterize the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets. However, it is still unknown whether such planets orbiting close to M dwarf stars can retain their atmospheres, or whether high-energy irradiation from the star will strip the gaseous envelopes from these objects. We present a new method to detect an atmosphere on a synchronously rotating rocky exoplanet around a K/M dwarf, by using thermal emission during secondary eclipse to infer a high dayside albedo that could only be explained by bright clouds. Based on calculations for plausible surface conditions, we conclude that a high albedo could be unambiguously interpreted as a signal of an atmosphere for planets with substellar temperatures of $T_{sub}=$ 410-1250 K. This range corresponds to equilibrium temperatures of $T_{eq}=$ 300-880 K. We compare the inferred albedos of eight possible planet surface compositions to cloud albedo calculations. We determine that a layer of clouds with optical depths greater than $τ=0.5$-$7$, would have high enough albedos to be distinguishable from a bare rock surface. This method of detecting an atmosphere on a rocky planet is complementary to existing methods for detecting atmospheres, because it provides a way to detect atmospheres with pressures below 1 bar (e.g. Mars), which are too tenuous to transport significant heat but thick enough to host high-albedo clouds.

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arXiv2019

A Hubble PanCET Study of HAT-P-11b: A Cloudy Neptune with a Low Atmospheric Metallicity

We present the first comprehensive look at the $0.35-5$ $μ$m transmission spectrum of the warm ($\sim 800$ K) Neptune HAT-P-11b derived from thirteen individual transits observed using the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes. Along with the previously published molecular absorption feature in the $1.1-1.7$ $μ$m bandpass, we detect a distinct absorption feature at 1.15 $μ$m and a weak feature at 0.95 $μ$m, indicating the presence of water and/or methane with a combined significance of 4.4 $σ$. We find that this planet's nearly flat optical transmission spectrum and attenuated near-infrared molecular absorption features are best-matched by models incorporating a high-altitude cloud layer. Atmospheric retrievals using the combined $0.35-1.7$ $μ$m HST transmission spectrum yield strong constraints on atmospheric cloud-top pressure and metallicity, but we are unable to match the relatively shallow Spitzer transit depths without under-predicting the strength of the near-infrared molecular absorption bands. HAT-P-11b's HST transmission spectrum is well-matched by predictions from our microphysical cloud models. Both forward models and retrievals indicate that HAT-P-11b most likely has a relatively low atmospheric metallicity ($<4.6 \; Z_{\odot}$ and $<86 \; Z_{\odot}$ at the $2 σ$ and $3 σ$ levels respectively), in contrast to the expected trend based on the solar system planets. Our work also demonstrates that the wide wavelength coverage provided by the addition of the HST STIS data is critical for making these inferences.

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arXiv2019

Ground-based optical transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-1b

Time-series spectrophotometric studies of exoplanets during transit using ground-based facilities are a promising approach to characterize their atmospheric compositions. We aim to investigate the transit spectrum of the hot Jupiter HAT-P-1b. We compare our results to those obtained at similar wavelengths by previous space-based observations. We observed two transits of HAT-P-1b with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) instrument on the Gemini North telescope using two instrument modes covering the 320 - 800 nm and 520 - 950 nm wavelength ranges. We used time-series spectrophotometry to construct transit light curves in individual wavelength bins and measure the transit depths in each bin. We accounted for systematic effects. We addressed potential photometric variability due to magnetic spots in the planet's host star with long-term photometric monitoring. We find that the resulting transit spectrum is consistent with previous Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations. We compare our observations to transit spectroscopy models that marginally favor a clear atmosphere. However, the observations are also consistent with a flat spectrum, indicating high-altitude clouds. We do not detect the Na resonance absorption line (589 nm), and our observations do not have sufficient precision to study the resonance line of K at 770 nm. We show that even a single Gemini/GMOS transit can provide constraining power on the properties of the atmosphere of HAT-P-1b to a level comparable to that of HST transit studies in the optical when the observing conditions and target and reference star combination are suitable. Our 520 - 950 nm observations reach a precision comparable to that of HST transit spectra in a similar wavelength range of the same hot Jupiter, HAT-P-1b. However, our GMOS transit between 320 - 800 nm suffers from strong systematic effects and yields larger uncertainties.

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arXiv2019

TESS Asteroseismology of the known red-giant host stars HD 212771 and HD 203949

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is performing a near all-sky survey for planets that transit bright stars. In addition, its excellent photometric precision enables asteroseismology of solar-type and red-giant stars, which exhibit convection-driven, solar-like oscillations. Simulations predict that TESS will detect solar-like oscillations in nearly 100 stars already known to host planets. In this paper, we present an asteroseismic analysis of the known red-giant host stars HD 212771 and HD 203949, both systems having a long-period planet detected through radial velocities. These are the first detections of oscillations in previously known exoplanet-host stars by TESS, further showcasing the mission's potential to conduct asteroseismology of red-giant stars. We estimate the fundamental properties of both stars through a grid-based modeling approach that uses global asteroseismic parameters as input. We discuss the evolutionary state of HD 203949 in depth and note the large discrepancy between its asteroseismic mass ($M_\ast = 1.23 \pm 0.15\,{\rm M}_\odot$ if on the red-giant branch or $M_\ast = 1.00 \pm 0.16\,{\rm M}_\odot$ if in the clump) and the mass quoted in the discovery paper ($M_\ast = 2.1 \pm 0.1\,{\rm M}_\odot$), implying a change $>30\,\%$ in the planet's mass. Assuming HD 203949 to be in the clump, we investigate the planet's past orbital evolution and discuss how it could have avoided engulfment at the tip of the red-giant branch. Finally, HD 212771 was observed by K2 during its Campaign 3, thus allowing for a preliminary comparison of the asteroseismic performances of TESS and K2. We estimate the ratio of the observed oscillation amplitudes for this star to be $A_{\rm max}^{\rm TESS}/A_{\rm max}^{\rm K2} = 0.75 \pm 0.14$, consistent with the expected ratio of $\sim0.85$ due to the redder bandpass of TESS.

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arXiv2019

Identifying Candidate Atmospheres on Rocky M dwarf Planets via Eclipse Photometry

Most rocky planets in the galaxy orbit a cool host star, and there is large uncertainty among theoretical models whether these planets can retain an atmosphere. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) might be able to settle this question empirically, but most proposals for doing so require large observational effort because they are based on spectroscopy. Here we show that infrared photometry of secondary eclipses could quickly identify "candidate" atmospheres, by searching for rocky planets with atmospheres thick enough that atmospheric heat transport noticeably reduces their dayside thermal emission compared to that of a bare rock. For a planet amenable to atmospheric follow-up, we find that JWST should be able to confidently detect the heat redistribution signal of an O(1) bar atmosphere with one to two eclipses. One to two eclipses is generally much less than the effort needed to infer an atmosphere via transmission or emission spectroscopy. Candidate atmospheres can be further validated via follow-up spectroscopy or phase curves. In addition, because this technique is fast it could enable a first atmospheric survey of rocky exoplanets with JWST. We estimate that the TESS mission will find ~100 planets that are too hot to be habitable but that can be quickly probed via eclipse photometry. Knowing whether hot, rocky planets around M dwarfs have atmospheres is important not only for understanding the evolution of uninhabitable worlds: if atmospheres are common on hot planets, then cooler, potentially habitable planets around M dwarfs are also likely to have atmospheres.

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arXiv2019

eleanor: An open-source tool for extracting light curves from the TESS Full-Frame Images

During its two year prime mission the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will perform a time-series photometric survey covering over 80% of the sky. This survey comprises observations of 26 24 x 96 degree sectors that are each monitored continuously for approximately 27 days. The main goal of TESS is to find transiting planets around 200,000 pre-selected stars for which fixed aperture photometry is recorded every two minutes. However, TESS is also recording and delivering Full-Frame Images (FFIs) of each detector at a 30 minute cadence. We have created an open-source tool, eleanor, to produce light curves for objects in the TESS FFIs. Here, we describe the methods used in eleanor to produce light curves that are optimized for planet searches. The tool performs background subtraction, aperture and PSF photometry, decorrelation of instrument systematics, and cotrending using principal component analysis. We recover known transiting exoplanets in the FFIs to validate the pipeline and perform a limited search for new planet candidates in Sector 1. Our tests indicate that eleanor produces light curves with significantly less scatter than other tools that have been used in the literature. Cadence-stacked images, and raw and detrended eleanor light curves for each analyzed star will be hosted on MAST, with planet candidates on ExoFOP-TESS as Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs). This work confirms the promise that the TESS FFIs will enable the detection of thousands of new exoplanets and a broad range of time domain astrophysics.

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arXiv2019

The Revised TESS Input Catalog and Candidate Target List

We describe the catalogs assembled and the algorithms used to populate the revised TESS Input Catalog (TIC), based on the incorporation of the Gaia second data release. We also describe a revised ranking system for prioritizing stars for 2-minute cadence observations, and assemble a revised Candidate Target List (CTL) using that ranking. The TIC is available on the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes (MAST) server, and an enhanced CTL is available through the Filtergraph data visualization portal system at the URL http://filtergraph.vanderbilt.edu/tess_ctl.

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arXiv2019

Climate of an Ultra hot Jupiter: Spectroscopic phase curve of WASP-18b with HST/WFC3

We present the analysis of a full-orbit, spectroscopic phase curve of the ultra hot Jupiter WASP-18b, obtained with the Wide Field Camera 3 aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. We measure the planet's normalized day-night contrast as >0.96 in luminosity: the disk-integrated dayside emission from the planet is at 964+-25 ppm, corresponding to 2894+-30 K, and we place an upper limit on the nightside emission of <32ppm or 1430K at the 3-sigma level. We also find that the peak of the phase curve exhibits a small, but significant offset in brightness of 4.5+-0.5 degrees eastward. We compare the extracted phase curve and phase resolved spectra to 3D Global Circulation Models and find that broadly the data can be well reproduced by some of these models. We find from this comparison several constraints on the atmospheric properties of the planet. Firstly we find that we need efficient drag to explain the very inefficient day-night re-circulation observed. We demonstrate that this drag could be due to Lorentz-force drag by a magnetic field as weak as 10 Gauss. Secondly, we show that a high metallicity is not required to match the large day-night temperature contrast. In fact, the effect of metallicity on the phase curve is different from cooler gas-giant counterparts, due to the high-temperature chemistry in WASP-18b's atmosphere. Additionally, we compare the current UHJ spectroscopic phase curves, WASP-18b and WASP-103b, and show that these two planets provide a consistent picture with remarkable similarities in their measured and inferred properties. However, key differences in these properties, such as their brightness offsets and radius anomalies, suggest that UHJ could be used to separate between competing theories for the inflation of gas-giant planets.

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arXiv2019

A Statistical Comparative Planetology Approach to Maximize the Scientific Return of Future Exoplanet Characterization Efforts

Provided that sufficient resources are deployed, we can look forward to an extraordinary future in which we will characterize potentially habitable planets. Until now, we have had to base interpretations of observations on habitability hypotheses that have remained untested. To test these theories observationally, we propose a statistical comparative planetology approach to questions of planetary habitability. The key objective of this approach will be to make quick and cheap measurements of critical planetary characteristics on a large sample of exoplanets, exploiting statistical marginalization to answer broad habitability questions. This relaxes the requirement of obtaining multiple types of data for a given planet, as it allows us to test a given hypothesis from only one type of measurement using the power of an ensemble. This approach contrasts with a "systems science" approach, where a few planets would be extensively studied with many types of measurements. A systems science approach is associated with a number of difficulties which may limit overall scientific return, including: the limited spectral coverage and noise of instruments, the diversity of exoplanets, and the extensive list of potential false negatives and false positives. A statistical approach could also be complementary to a systems science framework by providing context to interpret extensive measurements on planets of particular interest. We strongly recommend future missions with a focus on exoplanet characterization, and with the capability to study large numbers of planets in a homogenous way, rather than exclusively small, intense studies directed at a small sample of planets.

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