arXiv subjects

Jacob R. Gardner

Publications and source records attributed to Jacob R. Gardner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Electron-affinity difference distributions as an organizing principle for superconductivity, enabling the discovery of PtPb$_3$Bi

Predicting the superconducting transition temperature ($T_c$) from crystal structure and composition remains a central challenge in condensed-matter physics, reflecting the absence of a broadly predictive framework connecting microscopic bonding to macroscopic quantum behavior. Here, we introduce $\mathcal{GP}$-$T_c$, an interpretable, structure- and chemistry-aware Gaussian process model that enables uncertainty-quantified $T_c$ prediction from experimentally accessible inputs. By encoding local bonding environments as graphlet histograms, we find that the predictive space collapses to a compact set of descriptors: the distribution of electron-affinity (EA) differences between neighboring atoms, together with interatomic distances and simple elemental features, suffices to predict $T_c$ across disparate superconducting families---identifying an overlooked chemical control parameter that underscores the essential role of local structure beyond composition-only approaches. Our results demonstrate that the EA differences serves as an accessible window into electronic structure providing a mechanism-agnostic physical basis that captures $T_c$ across conventional and unconventional families, including doped charge transfer insulators. $\mathcal{GP}$-$T_c$ reproduces the experimentally reported $T_c$ range of the infinite-layer nickelate Nd$_{0.8}$Sr$_{0.2}$NiO$_2$, and we predict and experimentally confirm superconductivity in stoichiometric PtPb$_3$Bi ($T_c \approx 3$~K). To facilitate broad community use, $\mathcal{GP}$-$T_c$ is made available through a web interface for crystal-structure-based prediction, and the same framework identifies additional high-priority superconducting candidates---including SrNiO$_2$ and K(PRh)$_2$---that provide concrete targets for ongoing and future experimental exploration.

cond-mat.supr-con↗

arXiv2026

Self-Driving Datasets: From 20 Million Papers to Nuanced Biomedical Knowledge at Scale

Manually curated biomedical repositories -- spanning bioactivity, genomics, and chemistry -- are expensive to maintain, lag behind primary literature, and discard experimental context, obscuring nuances needed to assess data correctness and coverage. We show that PubMed itself can be autonomously and cost-effectively turned into structured datasets that are larger, more nuanced, and more accurate than the curated databases they replace. We present three coupled contributions: (1) an LLM-based entity-tagging pipeline, grounded in nine biomedical ontologies, that tags 4.5B entities across 19 categories in a 22.5M-paper, 2.5T-token PubMed corpus; (2) hybrid sparse-dense retrieval supporting entity-filtered semantic queries over the tagged corpus; and (3) Starling, a multi-agent deep research system that, given only a natural-language task description, designs precision- and recall-targeted retrieval filters, induces an extraction schema, and emits structured records with nuance-rich fields and supporting passages. Across six tasks -- blood-brain barrier permeability, oral bioavailability, acute toxicity (LD50), gene-disease associations, protein subcellular localization, and chemical reactions -- Starling produces ~6.3M records (91K-3M per task); several are, to our knowledge, the largest public datasets for their property. Frontier-model rejection of our extractions is 0.6-7.7% across tasks, far below error rates we measure on widely used curated counterparts (e.g., 16.5% on BBB_Martins, 7.3% on Bioavailability_Ma). Beyond scale and accuracy, the supporting passages carry nuance tabular databases discard -- e.g., oral bioavailability may depend on fed vs. fasted state. Together, the corpus, retrieval, and agent establish a foundation for AI-driven therapeutic design. Code and datasets: https://github.com/starling-labs/starling.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Stochastic Gradient Variational Inference with Price's Gradient Estimator from Bures-Wasserstein to Parameter Space

For approximating a target distribution given only its unnormalized log-density, stochastic gradient-based variational inference (VI) algorithms are a popular approach. For example, Wasserstein VI (WVI) and black-box VI (BBVI) perform gradient descent in measure space (Bures-Wasserstein space) and parameter space, respectively. Previously, for the Gaussian variational family, convergence guarantees for WVI have shown superiority over existing results for black-box VI with the reparametrization gradient, suggesting the measure space approach might provide some unique benefits. In this work, however, we close this gap by obtaining identical state-of-the-art iteration complexity guarantees for both. In particular, we identify that WVI's superiority stems from the specific gradient estimator it uses, which BBVI can also leverage with minor modifications. The estimator in question is usually associated with Price's theorem and utilizes second-order information (Hessians) of the target log-density. We will refer to this as Price's gradient. On the flip side, WVI can be made more widely applicable by using the reparametrization gradient, which requires only gradients of the log-density. We empirically demonstrate that the use of Price's gradient is the major source of performance improvement.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Purely Agent-Driven Black-Box Optimization for Biological Design

Many key challenges in biological design -- such as small-molecule drug discovery, antimicrobial peptide development, and protein engineering -- can be framed as black-box optimization over vast, complex structured spaces. Existing methods rely mainly on raw structural data and struggle to exploit the rich scientific literature. While large language models (LLMs) have been added to these pipelines, they have been confined to narrow roles within structure-centered optimizers. We instead cast biological black-box optimization as an agent-driven, language-based reasoning process. We introduce Purely Agent-driven BLack-box Optimization (PABLO), a hierarchical agentic system that uses scientific LLMs pretrained on chemistry and biology literature to generate and iteratively refine biological candidates. On both the standard GuacaMol molecular design and antimicrobial peptide optimization tasks, PABLO achieves state-of-the-art performance, substantially improving sample efficiency and final objective values over established baselines. Compared to prior optimization methods that incorporate LLMs, PABLO achieves competitive token usage per run despite relying on LLMs throughout the optimization loop. Beyond raw performance, the agentic formulation offers key advantages for realistic design: it naturally incorporates semantic task descriptions, retrieval-augmented domain knowledge, and complex constraints. In follow-up in vitro validation, PABLO-optimized peptides showed strong activity against drug-resistant pathogens, underscoring the practical potential of PABLO for therapeutic discovery.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

We Still Don't Understand High-Dimensional Bayesian Optimization

Existing high-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) methods aim to overcome the curse of dimensionality by carefully encoding structural assumptions, from locality to sparsity to smoothness, into the optimization procedure. Surprisingly, we demonstrate that these approaches are outperformed by arguably the simplest method imaginable: Bayesian linear regression. After applying a geometric transformation to avoid boundary-seeking behavior, Gaussian processes with linear kernels match state-of-the-art performance on tasks with 60- to 6,000-dimensional search spaces. Linear models offer numerous advantages over their non-parametric counterparts: they afford closed-form sampling and their computation scales linearly with data, a fact we exploit on molecular optimization tasks with >20,000 observations. Coupled with empirical analyses, our results suggest the need to depart from past intuitions about BO methods in high-dimensions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Adversarial Query Synthesis via Bayesian Optimization

Benchmark workloads are extremely important to the database management research community, especially as more machine learning components are integrated into database systems. Here, we propose a Bayesian optimization technique to automatically search for difficult benchmark queries, significantly reducing the amount of manual effort usually required. In preliminary experiments, we show that our approach can generate queries with more than double the optimization headroom compared to existing benchmarks.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2026

Knowledge Gradient for Preference Learning

The knowledge gradient is a popular acquisition function in Bayesian optimization (BO) for optimizing black-box objectives with noisy function evaluations. Many practical settings, however, allow only pairwise comparison queries, yielding a preferential BO problem where direct function evaluations are unavailable. Extending the knowledge gradient to preferential BO is hindered by its computational challenge. At its core, the look-ahead step in the preferential setting requires computing a non-Gaussian posterior, which was previously considered intractable. In this paper, we address this challenge by deriving an exact and analytical knowledge gradient for preferential BO. We show that the exact knowledge gradient performs strongly on a suite of benchmark problems, often outperforming existing acquisition functions. In addition, we also present a case study illustrating the limitation of the knowledge gradient in certain scenarios.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Tuning Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers via Greedy Incremental Divergence Minimization

The performance of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers heavily depends on the tuning of the Markov kernels used in the path proposal. For SMC samplers with unadjusted Markov kernels, standard tuning objectives, such as the Metropolis-Hastings acceptance rate or the expected-squared jump distance, are no longer applicable. While stochastic gradient-based end-to-end optimization has been explored for tuning SMC samplers, they often incur excessive training costs, even for tuning just the kernel step sizes. In this work, we propose a general adaptation framework for tuning the Markov kernels in SMC samplers by minimizing the incremental Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the proposal and target paths. For step size tuning, we provide a gradient- and tuning-free algorithm that is generally applicable for kernels such as Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC). We further demonstrate the utility of our approach by providing a tailored scheme for tuning kinetic LMC used in SMC samplers. Our implementations are able to obtain a full schedule of tuned parameters at the cost of a few vanilla SMC runs, which is a fraction of gradient-based approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Provably Scalable Black-Box Variational Inference with Structured Variational Families

Variational families with full-rank covariance approximations are known not to work well in black-box variational inference (BBVI), both empirically and theoretically. In fact, recent computational complexity results for BBVI have established that full-rank variational families scale poorly with the dimensionality of the problem compared to e.g. mean-field families. This is particularly critical to hierarchical Bayesian models with local variables; their dimensionality increases with the size of the datasets. Consequently, one gets an iteration complexity with an explicit $\mathcal{O}(N^2)$ dependence on the dataset size $N$. In this paper, we explore a theoretical middle ground between mean-field variational families and full-rank families: structured variational families. We rigorously prove that certain scale matrix structures can achieve a better iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}\left(N\right)$, implying better scaling with respect to $N$. We empirically verify our theoretical results on large-scale hierarchical models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Linear Convergence of Black-Box Variational Inference: Should We Stick the Landing?

We prove that black-box variational inference (BBVI) with control variates, particularly the sticking-the-landing (STL) estimator, converges at a geometric (traditionally called "linear") rate under perfect variational family specification. In particular, we prove a quadratic bound on the gradient variance of the STL estimator, one which encompasses misspecified variational families. Combined with previous works on the quadratic variance condition, this directly implies convergence of BBVI with the use of projected stochastic gradient descent. For the projection operator, we consider a domain with triangular scale matrices, which the projection onto is computable in $Θ(d)$ time, where $d$ is the dimensionality of the target posterior. We also improve existing analysis on the regular closed-form entropy gradient estimators, which enables comparison against the STL estimator, providing explicit non-asymptotic complexity guarantees for both.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Covering Multiple Objectives with a Small Set of Solutions Using Bayesian Optimization

In multi-objective black-box optimization, the goal is typically to find solutions that optimize a set of $T$ black-box objective functions, $f_1, \ldots f_T$, simultaneously. Traditional approaches often seek a single Pareto-optimal set that balances trade-offs among all objectives. In contrast, we consider a problem setting that departs from this paradigm: finding a small set of $K < T$ solutions, that collectively "cover" the $T$ objectives. A set of solutions is defined as "covering" if, for each objective $f_1, \ldots f_T$, there is at least one good solution. A motivating example for this problem setting occurs in drug design. For example, we may have $T$ pathogens and aim to identify a set of $K < T$ antibiotics such that at least one antibiotic can be used to treat each pathogen. This problem, known as coverage optimization, has yet to be tackled with the Bayesian optimization (BO) framework. To fill this void, we develop Multi-Objective Coverage Bayesian Optimization (MOCOBO), a BO algorithm for solving coverage optimization. Our approach is based on a new acquisition function reminiscent of expected improvement in the vanilla BO setup. We demonstrate the performance of our method on high-dimensional black-box optimization tasks, including applications in peptide and molecular design. Results show that the coverage of the $K < T$ solutions found by MOCOBO matches or nearly matches the coverage of $T$ solutions obtained by optimizing each objective individually. Furthermore, in in vitro experiments, the peptides found by MOCOBO exhibited high potency against drug-resistant pathogens, further demonstrating the potential of MOCOBO for drug discovery. All of our code is publicly available at the following link: https://github.com/nataliemaus/mocobo.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Nearly Dimension-Independent Convergence of Mean-Field Black-Box Variational Inference

We prove that, given a mean-field location-scale variational family, black-box variational inference (BBVI) with the reparametrization gradient converges at a rate that is nearly independent of explicit dimension dependence. Specifically, for a $d$-dimensional strongly log-concave and log-smooth target, the number of iterations for BBVI with a sub-Gaussian family to obtain a solution $ε$-close to the global optimum has a dimension dependence of $\mathrm{O}(\log d)$. This is a significant improvement over the $\mathrm{O}(d)$ dependence of full-rank location-scale families. For heavy-tailed families, we prove a weaker $\mathrm{O}(d^{2/k})$ dependence, where $k$ is the number of finite moments of the family. Additionally, if the Hessian of the target log-density is constant, the complexity is free of any explicit dimension dependence. We also prove that our bound on the gradient variance, which is key to our result, cannot be improved using only spectral bounds on the Hessian of the target log-density.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

A Dataset for Distilling Knowledge Priors from Literature for Therapeutic Design

AI-driven discovery can greatly reduce design time and enhance new therapeutics' effectiveness. Models using simulators explore broad design spaces but risk violating implicit constraints due to a lack of experimental priors. For example, in a new analysis we performed on a diverse set of models on the GuacaMol benchmark using supervised classifiers, over 60\% of molecules proposed had high probability of being mutagenic. In this work, we introduce Medex, a dataset of priors for design problems extracted from literature describing compounds used in lab settings. It is constructed with LLM pipelines for discovering therapeutic entities in relevant paragraphs and summarizing information in concise fair-use facts. Medex consists of 32.3 million pairs of natural language facts, and appropriate entity representations (i.e. SMILES or refseq IDs). To demonstrate the potential of the data, we train LLM, CLIP, and LLava architectures to reason jointly about text and design targets and evaluate on tasks from the Therapeutic Data Commons (TDC). Medex is highly effective for creating models with strong priors: in supervised prediction problems that use our data as pretraining, our best models with 15M learnable parameters outperform larger 2B TxGemma on both regression and classification TDC tasks, and perform comparably to 9B models on average. Models built with Medex can be used as constraints while optimizing for novel molecules in GuacaMol, resulting in proposals that are safer and nearly as effective. We release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/medexanon/Medex, and will provide expanded versions as available literature grows.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Computation-Aware Gaussian Processes: Model Selection And Linear-Time Inference

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the form of computational uncertainty, which enables -- at the cost of quadratic complexity -- an explicit tradeoff between computation and precision. Here we extend this development to model selection, which requires significant enhancements to the existing approach, including linear-time scaling in the size of the dataset. We propose a novel training loss for hyperparameter optimization and demonstrate empirically that the resulting method can outperform SGPR, CGGP and SVGP, state-of-the-art methods for GP model selection, on medium to large-scale datasets. Our experiments show that model selection for computation-aware GPs trained on 1.8 million data points can be done within a few hours on a single GPU. As a result of this work, Gaussian processes can be trained on large-scale datasets without significantly compromising their ability to quantify uncertainty -- a fundamental prerequisite for optimal decision-making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Large Scale Multi-Task Bayesian Optimization with Large Language Models

In multi-task Bayesian optimization, the goal is to leverage experience from optimizing existing tasks to improve the efficiency of optimizing new ones. While approaches using multi-task Gaussian processes or deep kernel transfer exist, the performance improvement is marginal when scaling beyond a moderate number of tasks. We introduce a novel approach leveraging large language models (LLMs) to learn from, and improve upon, previous optimization trajectories, scaling to approximately 1500 distinct tasks. Specifically, we propose a feedback loop in which an LLM is fine-tuned on the high quality solutions to specific tasks found by Bayesian optimization (BO). This LLM is then used to generate initialization points for future BO searches for new tasks. The trajectories of these new searches provide additional training data for fine-tuning the LLM, completing the loop. We evaluate our method on two distinct domains: database query optimization and antimicrobial peptide design. Results demonstrate that our approach creates a positive feedback loop, where the LLM's generated initializations gradually improve, leading to better optimization performance. As this feedback loop continues, we find that the LLM is eventually able to generate solutions to new tasks in just a few shots that are better than the solutions produced by "from scratch" by Bayesian optimization while simultaneously requiring significantly fewer oracle calls.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Approximation-Aware Bayesian Optimization

High-dimensional Bayesian optimization (BO) tasks such as molecular design often require 10,000 function evaluations before obtaining meaningful results. While methods like sparse variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) reduce computational requirements in these settings, the underlying approximations result in suboptimal data acquisitions that slow the progress of optimization. In this paper we modify SVGPs to better align with the goals of BO: targeting informed data acquisition rather than global posterior fidelity. Using the framework of utility-calibrated variational inference, we unify GP approximation and data acquisition into a joint optimization problem, thereby ensuring optimal decisions under a limited computational budget. Our approach can be used with any decision-theoretic acquisition function and is compatible with trust region methods like TuRBO. We derive efficient joint objectives for the expected improvement and knowledge gradient acquisition functions in both the standard and batch BO settings. Our approach outperforms standard SVGPs on high-dimensional benchmark tasks in control and molecular design.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Demystifying SGD with Doubly Stochastic Gradients

Optimization objectives in the form of a sum of intractable expectations are rising in importance (e.g., diffusion models, variational autoencoders, and many more), a setting also known as "finite sum with infinite data." For these problems, a popular strategy is to employ SGD with doubly stochastic gradients (doubly SGD): the expectations are estimated using the gradient estimator of each component, while the sum is estimated by subsampling over these estimators. Despite its popularity, little is known about the convergence properties of doubly SGD, except under strong assumptions such as bounded variance. In this work, we establish the convergence of doubly SGD with independent minibatching and random reshuffling under general conditions, which encompasses dependent component gradient estimators. In particular, for dependent estimators, our analysis allows fined-grained analysis of the effect correlations. As a result, under a per-iteration computational budget of $b \times m$, where $b$ is the minibatch size and $m$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples, our analysis suggests where one should invest most of the budget in general. Furthermore, we prove that random reshuffling (RR) improves the complexity dependence on the subsampling noise.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Learned Offline Query Planning via Bayesian Optimization

Analytics database workloads often contain queries that are executed repeatedly. Existing optimization techniques generally prioritize keeping optimization cost low, normally well below the time it takes to execute a single instance of a query. If a given query is going to be executed thousands of times, could it be worth investing significantly more optimization time? In contrast to traditional online query optimizers, we propose an offline query optimizer that searches a wide variety of plans and incorporates query execution as a primitive. Our offline query optimizer combines variational auto-encoders with Bayesian optimization to find optimized plans for a given query. We compare our technique to the optimal plans possible with PostgreSQL and recent RL-based systems over several datasets, and show that our technique finds faster query plans.

cs.DB↗