arXiv subjects

Jaehyeok Shin

Publications and source records attributed to Jaehyeok Shin.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

E-detectors: a nonparametric framework for sequential change detection

Sequential change detection is a classical problem with a variety of applications. However, the majority of prior work has been parametric, for example, focusing on exponential families. We develop a fundamentally new and general framework for sequential change detection when the pre- and post-change distributions are nonparametrically specified (and thus composite). Our procedures come with clean, nonasymptotic bounds on the average run length (frequency of false alarms). In certain nonparametric cases (like sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential), we also provide near-optimal bounds on the detection delay following a changepoint. The primary technical tool that we introduce is called an \emph{e-detector}, which is composed of sums of e-processes -- a fundamental generalization of nonnegative supermartingales -- that are started at consecutive times. We first introduce simple Shiryaev-Roberts and CUSUM-style e-detectors, and then show how to design their mixtures in order to achieve both statistical and computational efficiency. Our e-detector framework can be instantiated to recover classical likelihood-based procedures for parametric problems, as well as yielding the first change detection method for many nonparametric problems. As a running example, we tackle the problem of detecting changes in the mean of a bounded random variable without i.i.d. assumptions, with an application to tracking the performance of a basketball team over multiple seasons.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Nonparametric iterated-logarithm extensions of the sequential generalized likelihood ratio test

We develop a nonparametric extension of the sequential generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) test and corresponding time-uniform confidence sequences for the mean of a univariate distribution. By utilizing a geometric interpretation of the GLR statistic, we derive a simple analytic upper bound on the probability that it exceeds any prespecified boundary; these are intractable to approximate via simulations due to infinite horizon of the tests and the composite nonparametric nulls under consideration. Using time-uniform boundary-crossing inequalities, we carry out a unified nonasymptotic analysis of expected sample sizes of one-sided and open-ended tests over nonparametric classes of distributions (including sub-Gaussian, sub-exponential, sub-gamma, and exponential families). Finally, we present a flexible and practical method to construct time-uniform confidence sequences that are easily tunable to be uniformly close to the pointwise Chernoff bound over any target time interval.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

On the bias, risk and consistency of sample means in multi-armed bandits

The sample mean is among the most well studied estimators in statistics, having many desirable properties such as unbiasedness and consistency. However, when analyzing data collected using a multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiment, the sample mean is biased and much remains to be understood about its properties. For example, when is it consistent, how large is its bias, and can we bound its mean squared error? This paper delivers a thorough and systematic treatment of the bias, risk and consistency of MAB sample means. Specifically, we identify four distinct sources of selection bias (sampling, stopping, choosing and rewinding) and analyze them both separately and together. We further demonstrate that a new notion of \emph{effective sample size} can be used to bound the risk of the sample mean under suitable loss functions. We present several carefully designed examples to provide intuition on the different sources of selection bias we study. Our treatment is nonparametric and algorithm-agnostic, meaning that it is not tied to a specific algorithm or goal. In a nutshell, our proofs combine variational representations of information-theoretic divergences with new martingale concentration inequalities.

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arXiv2021

On conditional versus marginal bias in multi-armed bandits

The bias of the sample means of the arms in multi-armed bandits is an important issue in adaptive data analysis that has recently received considerable attention in the literature. Existing results relate in precise ways the sign and magnitude of the bias to various sources of data adaptivity, but do not apply to the conditional inference setting in which the sample means are computed only if some specific conditions are satisfied. In this paper, we characterize the sign of the conditional bias of monotone functions of the rewards, including the sample mean. Our results hold for arbitrary conditioning events and leverage natural monotonicity properties of the data collection policy. We further demonstrate, through several examples from sequential testing and best arm identification, that the sign of the conditional and marginal bias of the sample mean of an arm can be different, depending on the conditioning event. Our analysis offers new and interesting perspectives on the subtleties of assessing the bias in data adaptive settings.

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arXiv2020

Homotopy Reconstruction via the Cech Complex and the Vietoris-Rips Complex

We derive conditions under which the reconstruction of a target space is topologically correct via the Čech complex or the Vietoris-Rips complex obtained from possibly noisy point cloud data. We provide two novel theoretical results. First, we describe sufficient conditions under which any non-empty intersection of finitely many Euclidean balls intersected with a positive reach set is contractible, so that the Nerve theorem applies for the restricted Čech complex. Second, we demonstrate the homotopy equivalence of a positive $μ$-reach set and its offsets. Applying these results to the restricted Čech complex and using the interleaving relations with the Čech complex (or the Vietoris-Rips complex), we formulate conditions guaranteeing that the target space is homotopy equivalent to the Čech complex (or the Vietoris-Rips complex), in terms of the $μ$-reach. Our results sharpen existing results.

math.AT↗

arXiv2019

Uniform Convergence Rate of the Kernel Density Estimator Adaptive to Intrinsic Volume Dimension

We derive concentration inequalities for the supremum norm of the difference between a kernel density estimator (KDE) and its point-wise expectation that hold uniformly over the selection of the bandwidth and under weaker conditions on the kernel and the data generating distribution than previously used in the literature. We first propose a novel concept, called the volume dimension, to measure the intrinsic dimension of the support of a probability distribution based on the rates of decay of the probability of vanishing Euclidean balls. Our bounds depend on the volume dimension and generalize the existing bounds derived in the literature. In particular, when the data-generating distribution has a bounded Lebesgue density or is supported on a sufficiently well-behaved lower-dimensional manifold, our bound recovers the same convergence rate depending on the intrinsic dimension of the support as ones known in the literature. At the same time, our results apply to more general cases, such as the ones of distribution with unbounded densities or supported on a mixture of manifolds with different dimensions. Analogous bounds are derived for the derivative of the KDE, of any order. Our results are generally applicable but are especially useful for problems in geometric inference and topological data analysis, including level set estimation, density-based clustering, modal clustering and mode hunting, ridge estimation and persistent homology.

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arXiv2019

Predictive clustering

We show how to convert any clustering into a prediction set. This has the effect of converting the clustering into a (possibly overlapping) union of spheres or ellipsoids. The tuning parameters can be chosen to minimize the size of the prediction set. When applied to k-means clustering, this method solves several problems: the method tells us how to choose k, how to merge clusters and how to replace the Voronoi partition with more natural shapes. We show that the same reasoning can be applied to other clustering methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Are sample means in multi-armed bandits positively or negatively biased?

It is well known that in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB), the sample mean of an arm is typically not an unbiased estimator of its true mean. In this paper, we decouple three different sources of this selection bias: adaptive \emph{sampling} of arms, adaptive \emph{stopping} of the experiment, and adaptively \emph{choosing} which arm to study. Through a new notion called ``optimism'' that captures certain natural monotonic behaviors of algorithms, we provide a clean and unified analysis of how optimistic rules affect the sign of the bias. The main takeaway message is that optimistic sampling induces a negative bias, but optimistic stopping and optimistic choosing both induce a positive bias. These results are derived in a general stochastic MAB setup that is entirely agnostic to the final aim of the experiment (regret minimization or best-arm identification or anything else). We provide examples of optimistic rules of each type, demonstrate that simulations confirm our theoretical predictions, and pose some natural but hard open problems.

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