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Jagdish Gnawali

Publications and source records attributed to Jagdish Gnawali.

5 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Innovative Extensions to Option Pricing: Asymmetric Brownian Motion and Random Walk Approaches

Classical option pricing models, such as Bachelier and Black--Scholes--Merton, postulate symmetric Brownian diffusion, which limits their capacity to reflect empirical phenomena including return skewness, heavy tails, and volatility asymmetry. This paper develops an innovative extension: the Geometric Asymmetric Brownian Motion (GABM), unifying asymmetric Brownian motion and random walk methodologies within the Bachelier--Black--Scholes--Merton framework. The approach harnesses the Cherny--Shiryaev--Yor invariance principle (CSYIP) to define asymmetric random walk integrals, where local time at the origin generates skewness and state-dependent risk. Closed-form option pricing formulas are derived, and a discrete-time binomial tree algorithm is constructed and shown to converge rigorously to the GABM limit. By incorporating a smoothed functional form based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution, the model allows for flexible, state-dependent volatility calibration. Numerical experiments demonstrate the resulting option price and implied volatility surfaces, highlighting the framework's enhanced ability to capture persistent market asymmetry and complex risk behaviors observed in empirical data.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2025

Implied Probabilities and Volatility in Credit Risk: A Merton-Based Approach with Binomial Trees

We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm's asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages: first, we calibrate the asset volatility using the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) formula; second, we recover implied mean return and probability surfaces under the physical measure. To achieve this, we construct a recombining binomial tree under the real-world (natural) measure, assuming a fixed initial asset value. The volatility input is taken from a specific region of the implied volatility surface - based on moneyness and maturity - which then informs the calibration of drift and probability. A novel mapping is established between risk-neutral and physical parameters, enabling construction of implied surfaces that reflect the market's credit expectations and offer practical tools for stress testing and credit risk analysis.

q-fin.RM↗
arXiv2024

Hedging via Perpetual Derivatives: Trinomial Option Pricing and Implied Parameter Surface Analysis

We introduce a fairly general, recombining trinomial tree model in the natural world. Market-completeness is ensured by considering a market consisting of two risky assets, a riskless asset, and a European option. The two risky assets consist of a stock and a perpetual derivative of that stock. The option has the stock and its derivative as its underlying. Using a replicating portfolio, we develop prices for European options and generate the unique relationships between the risk-neutral and real-world parameters of the model. We discuss calibration of the model to empirical data in the cases in which the risky asset returns are treated as either arithmetic or logarithmic. From historical price and call option data for select large cap stocks, we develop implied parameter surfaces for the real-world parameters in the model.

q-fin.MF↗
arXiv2024

Dynamic Asset Pricing in a Unified Bachelier-Black-Scholes-Merton Model

We present a unified, market-complete model that integrates both the Bachelier and Black-Scholes-Merton frameworks for asset pricing. The model allows for the study, within a unified framework, of asset pricing in a natural world that experiences the possibility of negative security prices or riskless rates. In contrast to classical Black-Scholes-Merton, we show that option pricing in the unified model displays a difference depending on whether the replicating, self-financing portfolio uses riskless bonds or a single riskless bank account. We derive option price formulas and extend our analysis to the term structure of interest rates by deriving the pricing of zero-coupon bonds, forward contracts, and futures contracts. We identify a necessary condition for the unified model to support a perpetual derivative. Discrete binomial pricing under the unified model is also developed. In every scenario analyzed, we show that the unified model simplifies to the standard Black-Scholes-Merton pricing under specific limits and provides pricing in the Bachelier model limit. We note that the Bachelier limit within the unified model allows for positive riskless rates. The unified model prompts us to speculate on the possibility of a mixed multiplicative and additive deflator model for risk-neutral option pricing.

q-fin.MF↗