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Jairo Fuquene

Publications and source records attributed to Jairo Fuquene.

7 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2019

An alternative for the average income estimation using small area methods

The average household income is one of the most important indexes for decision making and the modelling of economic inequity and poverty. In this work we propose a practical procedure to estimate the average income using small area methods. We illustrate our proposal using information from a multipurpose survey and suitable economic and demographic variables such as the multidimensional poverty and the valorization indexes and the official population projections. We find that the standard relative errors for the income average estimates improve substantially when the proposed methodology is implemented.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2019

Prevalence of international migration: an alternative for small area estimation

This paper introduces an alternative procedure for estimating the prevalence of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The new methodology uses the empirical best linear unbiased predictor based on a Fay-Herriot model with target and auxiliary variables available from census studies and from the Demographic and Health Survey. The proposed alternative produces prevalence estimates which are consistent with sample sizes and demographic dynamics in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered as reliable.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2015

A Robust Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model for Latin-American Economic Time Series: "The Mexico and Puerto Rico Cases"

The traditional time series methodology requires at least a preliminary transformation of the data to get stationarity. On the other hand, Robust Bayesian Dynamic Models (RBDMs) do not assume a regular pattern or stability of the underlying system but can include points of statement breaks. In this paper we use RBDMs in order to account possible outliers and structural breaks in Latin-American economic time series. We work with important economic time series from Puerto Rico and Mexico. We show by using a random walk model how RBDMs can be applied for detecting historic changes in the economic inflation of Mexico. Also, we model the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Economic Activity Index (EAI) and the total number of employments (TNE) economic time series in Puerto Rico using local linear trend and seasonal RBDMs with observational and states variances. The results illustrate how the model accounts the structural breaks for the historic recession periods in Puerto Rico.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2013

A Semiparametric Bayesian Extreme Value Model Using a Dirichlet Process Mixture of Gamma Densities

In this paper we propose a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the bulk part below threshold and a generalized Pareto density in the tail for extreme value estimation. The proposed model is simple and flexible allowing us posterior density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles. The model works well even for small sample sizes and in the absence of prior information. We evaluate the performance of the proposed model through a simulation study. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a real environmental data.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2013

A Semiparametric Bayesian Approach for Extreme Values Using Dirichlet Process Mixture of Gamma and Generalized Pareto Densities

For extreme value estimation we propose to use a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the center and generalized Pareto densities for the tails. Due to the randomness in the center and a heavy tailed density in the tails density estimation and posterior inference for high quantiles are possible. The approach can be used in a "default" manner on the positive reals because it works when prior information is unavailable. The proposed model can be easy to implement and a sensitivity analysis is provided. We applied the proposed model for simulated and real data sets.

stat.ME↗
arXiv2012

Heavy tailed priors: an alternative to non-informative priors in the estimation of proportions on small areas

We explore the Cauchy and a new heavy tailed (Fuquene, Perez and Pericchi (2011)) priors to estimate proportions on small areas. Hierarchical models and the Binomial likelihood in the exponential family form are used. We believe that the heavy tailed priors in survey sampling settings could be more effective than the choice of noninformative priors to eliminate antipathy towards methods that involve subjective elements or assumptions. To illustrate the robust Bayesian approach, we apply this methodology in a popular example: "the clement problem". Finally, we recommend to use the Cauchy prior in absence or presence of outliers within the small areas and the Fuquene et al. (2011) prior when the outlier is a particular small area.

stat.ME↗