arXiv subjects

Jake Taylor

Publications and source records attributed to Jake Taylor.

66 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

How Does Thermal Scattering Shape the Infrared Spectra of Cloudy Exoplanets? A Theoretical Framework and Consequences for Atmospheric Retrievals in the JWST era

Observational studies of exoplanets are suggestive of a ubiquitous presence of clouds. The current modelling techniques used in emission to account for the clouds tend to require prior knowledge of the cloud condensing species and often do not consider the scattering effects of the cloud. We explore the effects that thermal scattering has on the emission spectra by modelling a suite of hot Jupiter atmospheres with varying cloud single-scattering albedos (SSAs) and temperature profiles. We examine cases ranging from simple isothermal conditions to more complex structures and physically driven cloud modelling. We show that scattering from nightside clouds would lead to brightness temperatures that are cooler than the real atmospheric temperature if scattering is unaccounted for. We show that scattering can produce spectral signatures in the emission spectrum even for isothermal atmospheres. We identify the retrieval degeneracies and biases that arise in the context of simulated JWST spectra when the scattering from the clouds dominates the spectral shape. Finally, we propose a novel method of fitting the SSA spectrum of the cloud in emission retrievals, using a technique that does not require any prior knowledge of the cloud chemical or physical properties.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

Time Series Anomaly Detection with label-free Model Selection

Anomaly detection for time-series data becomes an essential task for many data-driven applications fueled with an abundance of data and out-of-the-box machine-learning algorithms. In many real-world settings, developing a reliable anomaly model is highly challenging due to insufficient anomaly labels and the prohibitively expensive cost of obtaining anomaly examples. It imposes a significant bottleneck to evaluate model quality for model selection and parameter tuning reliably. As a result, many existing anomaly detection algorithms fail to show their promised performance after deployment. In this paper, we propose LaF-AD, a novel anomaly detection algorithm with label-free model selection for unlabeled times-series data. Our proposed algorithm performs a fully unsupervised ensemble learning across a large number of candidate parametric models. We develop a model variance metric that quantifies the sensitivity of anomaly probability with a bootstrapping method. Then it makes a collective decision for anomaly events by model learners using the model variance. Our algorithm is easily parallelizable, more robust for ill-conditioned and seasonal data, and highly scalable for a large number of anomaly models. We evaluate our algorithm against other state-of-the-art methods on a synthetic domain and a benchmark public data set.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Planet Hunters TESS III: two transiting planets around the bright G dwarf HD 152843

We report on the discovery and validation of a two-planet system around a bright (V = 8.85 mag) early G dwarf (1.43 $R_{\odot}$, 1.15 $M_{\odot}$, TOI 2319) using data from NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Three transit events from two planets were detected by citizen scientists in the month-long TESS light curve (sector 25), as part of the Planet Hunters TESS project. Modelling of the transits yields an orbital period of \Pb\ and radius of $3.41 _{ - 0.12 } ^ { + 0.14 }$ $R_{\oplus}$ for the inner planet, and a period in the range 19.26-35 days and a radius of $5.83 _{ - 0.14 } ^ { + 0.14 }$ $R_{\oplus}$ for the outer planet, which was only seen to transit once. Each signal was independently statistically validated, taking into consideration the TESS light curve as well as the ground-based spectroscopic follow-up observations. Radial velocities from HARPS-N and EXPRES yield a tentative detection of planet b, whose mass we estimate to be $11.56 _{ - 6.14 } ^ { + 6.58 }$ $M_{\oplus}$, and allow us to place an upper limit of $27.5$ $M_{\oplus}$ (99 per cent confidence) on the mass of planet c. Due to the brightness of the host star and the strong likelihood of an extended H/He atmosphere on both planets, this system offers excellent prospects for atmospheric characterisation and comparative planetology.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

HST PanCET Program: A Complete Near-UV to Infrared Transmission Spectrum for the Hot Jupiter WASP-79b

We present a new optical transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-79b. We observed three transits with the STIS instrument mounted on HST, spanning 0.3 - 1.0 um. Combining these transits with previous observations, we construct a complete 0.3 - 5.0 um transmission spectrum of WASP-79b. Both HST and ground-based observations show decreasing transit depths towards blue wavelengths, contrary to expectations from Rayleigh scattering or hazes. We infer atmospheric and stellar properties from the full near-UV to infrared transmission spectrum of WASP-79b using three independent retrieval codes, all of which yield consistent results. Our retrievals confirm previous detections of H$_{2}$O (at 4.0$σ$ confidence), while providing moderate evidence of H$^{-}$ bound-free opacity (3.3$σ$) and strong evidence of stellar contamination from unocculted faculae (4.7$σ$). The retrieved H$_{2}$O abundance ($\sim$ 1$\%$) suggests a super-stellar atmospheric metallicity, though stellar or sub-stellar abundances remain consistent with present observations (O/H = 0.3 - 34$\times$ stellar). All three retrieval codes obtain a precise H$^{-}$ abundance constraint: log(X$_{\rm{H^{-}}}$) $\approx$ -8.0 $\pm$ 0.7. The potential presence of H$^{-}$ suggests that JWST observations may be sensitive to ionic chemistry in the atmosphere of WASP-79b. The inferred faculae are $\sim$ 500 K hotter than the stellar photosphere, covering $\sim$ 15$\%$ of the stellar surface. Our analysis underscores the importance of observing UV - optical transmission spectra in order to disentangle the influence of unocculted stellar heterogeneities from planetary transmission spectra.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

A survey of exoplanet phase curves with Ariel

The ESA-Ariel mission will include a tier dedicated to exoplanet phase curves corresponding to ~10% of the science time. We present here the current observing strategy for studying exoplanet phase curves with Ariel. We define science questions, requirements and a list of potential targets. We also estimate the precision of phase curve reconstruction and atmospheric retrieval using simulated phase curves. Based on this work, we found that full-orbit phase variations for 35-40 exoplanets could be observed during the 3.5-yr mission. This statistical sample would provide key constraints on atmospheric dynamics, composition, thermal structure and clouds of warm exoplanets, complementary to the scientific yield from spectroscopic transits/eclipses measurements.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

ARES I: WASP-76 b, A Tale of Two HST Spectra

We analyse the transmission and emission spectra of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b, observed with the G141 grism of the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). We reduce and fit the raw data for each observation using the open-source software Iraclis before performing a fully Bayesian retrieval using the publicly available analysis suite TauRex 3. Previous studies of the WFC3 transmission spectra of WASP-76 b found hints of titanium oxide (TiO) and vanadium oxide (VO) or non-grey clouds. Accounting for a fainter stellar companion to WASP-76, we reanalyse this data and show that removing the effects of this background star changes the slope of the spectrum, resulting in these visible absorbers no longer being detected, eliminating the need for a non-grey cloud model to adequately fit the data but maintaining the strong water feature previously seen. However, our analysis of the emission spectrum suggests the presence of TiO and an atmospheric thermal inversion, along with a significant amount of water. Given the brightness of the host star and the size of the atmospheric features, WASP-76 b is an excellent target for further characterisation with HST, or with future facilities, to better understand the nature of its atmosphere, to confirm the presence of TiO and to search for other optical absorbers.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Original Research By Young Twinkle Students (ORBYTS): Ephemeris Refinement of Transiting Exoplanets

We report follow-up observations of transiting exoplanets that have either large uncertainties (>10 minutes) in their transit times or have not been observed for over three years. A fully robotic ground-based telescope network, observations from citizen astronomers and data from TESS have been used to study eight planets, refining their ephemeris and orbital data. Such follow-up observations are key for ensuring accurate transit times for upcoming ground and space-based telescopes which may seek to characterise the atmospheres of these planets. We find deviations from the expected transit time for all planets, with transits occurring outside the 1 sigma uncertainties for seven planets. Using the newly acquired observations, we subsequently refine their periods and reduce the current predicted ephemeris uncertainties to 0.28 - 4.01 minutes. A significant portion of this work has been completed by students at two high schools in London as part of the Original Research By Young Twinkle Students (ORBYTS) programme.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2020

Understanding and Mitigating Biases when Studying Inhomogeneous Emission Spectra with JWST

Exoplanet emission spectra are often modelled assuming that the hemisphere observed is well represented by a horizontally homogenised atmosphere. However this approximation will likely fail for planets with a large temperature contrast in the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) era, potentially leading to erroneous interpretations of spectra. We first develop an analytic formulation to quantify the signal-to-noise ratio and wavelength coverage necessary to disentangle temperature inhomogeneities from a hemispherically averaged spectrum. We find that for a given signal-to-noise ratio, observations at shorter wavelengths are better at detecting the presence of inhomogeneities. We then determine why the presence of an inhomogeneous thermal structure can lead to spurious molecular detections when assuming a fully homogenised planet in the retrieval process. Finally, we quantify more precisely the potential biases by modelling a suite of hot Jupiter spectra, varying the spatial contributions of a hot and a cold region, as would be observed by the different instruments of JWST/NIRSpec. We then retrieve the abundances and temperature profiles from the synthetic observations. We find that in most cases, assuming a homogeneous thermal structure when retrieving the atmospheric chemistry leads to biased results, and spurious molecular detection. Explicitly modelling the data using two profiles avoids these biases, and is statistically supported provided the wavelength coverage is wide enough, and crucially also spanning shorter wavelengths. For the high contrast used here, a single profile with a dilution factor performs as well as the two-profile case, with only one additional parameter compared to the 1-D approach.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

2.5-D retrieval of atmospheric properties from exoplanet phase curves: Application to WASP-43b observations

We present a novel retrieval technique that attempts to model phase curve observations of exoplanets more realistically and reliably, which we call the 2.5-dimension (2.5-D) approach. In our 2.5-D approach we retrieve the vertical temperature profile and mean gaseous abundance of a planet at all longitudes and latitudes \textbf{simultaneously}, assuming that the temperature or composition, $x$, at a particular longitude and latitude $(Λ,Φ)$ is given by $x(Λ,Φ) = \bar{x} + (x(Λ,0) - \bar{x})\cos^nΦ$, where $\bar{x}$ is the mean of the morning and evening terminator values of $x(Λ,0)$, and $n$ is an assumed coefficient. We compare our new 2.5-D scheme with the more traditional 1-D approach, which assumes the same temperature profile and gaseous abundances at all points on the visible disc of a planet for each individual phase observation, using a set of synthetic phase curves generated from a GCM-based simulation. We find that our 2.5-D model fits these data more realistically than the 1-D approach, confining the hotter regions of the planet more closely to the dayside. We then apply both models to WASP-43b phase curve observations of HST/WFC3 and Spitzer/IRAC. We find that the dayside of WASP-43b is apparently much hotter than the nightside and show that this could be explained by the presence of a thick cloud on the nightside with a cloud top at pressure $< 0.2$ bar. We further show that while the mole fraction of water vapour is reasonably well constrained to $(1-10)\times10^{-4}$, the abundance of CO is very difficult to constrain with these data since it is degenerate with temperature and prone to possible systematic radiometric differences between the HST/WFC3 and Spitzer/IRAC observations. Hence, it is difficult to reliably constrain C/O.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Exoplanetary Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer with Correlated-k I. Benchmarking Transit and Emission Observables

Current observational data of exoplanets are providing increasing detail of their 3D atmospheric structures. As characterisation efforts expand in scope, the need to develop consistent 3D radiative-transfer methods becomes more pertinent as the complex atmospheric properties of exoplanets are required to be modelled together consistently. We aim to compare the transmission and emission spectra results of a 3D Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer (MCRT) model to contemporary radiative-transfer suites. We perform several benchmarking tests of a MCRT code, Cloudy Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer (CMCRT), to transmission and emission spectra model output. We add flexibility to the model through the use of k-distribution tables as input opacities. We present a hybrid MCRT and ray tracing methodology for the calculation of transmission spectra with a multiple scattering component. CMCRT compares well to the transmission spectra benchmarks at the 10s of ppm level. Emission spectra benchmarks are consistent to within 10% of the 1D models. We suggest that differences in the benchmark results are likely caused by geometric effects between plane-parallel and spherical models. In a practical application, we post-process a cloudy 3DHD 189733b GCM model and compare to available observational data. Our results suggest the core methodology and algorithms of CMCRT produce consistent results to contemporary radiative transfer suites. 3D MCRT methods are highly suitable for detailed post-processing of cloudy and non-cloudy 1D and 3D exoplanet atmosphere simulations in instances where atmospheric inhomogeneities, significant limb effects/geometry or multiple scattering components are important considerations.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

The Need for Laboratory Measurements and Ab Initio Studies to Aid Understanding of Exoplanetary Atmospheres

We are now on a clear trajectory for improvements in exoplanet observations that will revolutionize our ability to characterize their atmospheric structure, composition, and circulation, from gas giants to rocky planets. However, exoplanet atmospheric models capable of interpreting the upcoming observations are often limited by insufficiencies in the laboratory and theoretical data that serve as critical inputs to atmospheric physical and chemical tools. Here we provide an up-to-date and condensed description of areas where laboratory and/or ab initio investigations could fill critical gaps in our ability to model exoplanet atmospheric opacities, clouds, and chemistry, building off a larger 2016 white paper, and endorsed by the NAS Exoplanet Science Strategy report. Now is the ideal time for progress in these areas, but this progress requires better access to, understanding of, and training in the production of spectroscopic data as well as a better insight into chemical reaction kinetics both thermal and radiation-induced at a broad range of temperatures. Given that most published efforts have emphasized relatively Earth-like conditions, we can expect significant and enlightening discoveries as emphasis moves to the exotic atmospheres of exoplanets.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

The Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science Program for JWST

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) presents the opportunity to transform our understanding of planets and the origins of life by revealing the atmospheric compositions, structures, and dynamics of transiting exoplanets in unprecedented detail. However, the high-precision, time-series observations required for such investigations have unique technical challenges, and prior experience with other facilities indicates that there will be a steep learning curve when JWST becomes operational. In this paper we describe the science objectives and detailed plans of the Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science (ERS) Program, which is a recently approved program for JWST observations early in Cycle 1. The goal of this project, for which the obtained data will have no exclusive access period, is to accelerate the acquisition and diffusion of technical expertise for transiting exoplanet observations with JWST, while also providing a compelling set of representative datasets that will enable immediate scientific breakthroughs. The Transiting Exoplanet Community ERS Program will exercise the time-series modes of all four JWST instruments that have been identified as the consensus highest priorities, observe the full suite of transiting planet characterization geometries (transits, eclipses, and phase curves), and target planets with host stars that span an illustrative range of brightnesses. The observations in this program were defined through an inclusive and transparent process that had participation from JWST instrument experts and international leaders in transiting exoplanet studies. Community engagement in the project will be centered on a two-phase Data Challenge that culminates with the delivery of planetary spectra, time-series instrument performance reports, and open-source data analysis toolkits in time to inform the agenda for Cycle 2 of the JWST mission.

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