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Jam Kraprayoon

Publications and source records attributed to Jam Kraprayoon.

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Detecting Offensive Cyber Agents: A Detection-in-Depth Approach

Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents can now orchestrate cyberattacks. This development is already increasing the speed and scale of cyber attacks, decreasing attack costs, and improving the operational autonomy of cyber capabilities. To defend against these emerging threats, actors must first develop the capability to detect them. This report frames the offensive cyber agent detection challenge by outlining the coming detection gap between offensive cyber agents and traditional cyber capabilities; introducing detection-in-depth, a strategic framework to guide policymakers and defenders responding to this detection gap; and presents five actionable detection mechanisms to support policymakers, industry, and defenders when putting this strategic framework into practice. These include (1) Agent Identifiers for Critical Infrastructure,(2) Agent Honeypots; (3) AI-Automated Alert Analysis and Triage: systems that use AI to filter, prioritize, and interpret the growing volume of detection signals expected from autonomous cyber operations; (4) An Agentic Security Alert Standard: A reporting standard model that providers can use to communicate agentic threats, improving the speed, consistency, and actionability of reports; (5) An Agentic Cybersecurity Exchange (ACE): an institution modeled on the Global Signal Exchange that brings together model and cloud providers to detect offensive cyber agent threats at their origin point and coordinate ecosystem-wide agentic threat disruption.

cs.CY

Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents: Anticipating Capabilities, Tactics, and Strategic Implications

This report introduces the concept of "Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents" (HACCAs), AI systems capable of autonomously conducting multi-stage cyber campaigns at a level comparable to today's top criminal hacking groups or state-affiliated threat actors, and analyzes the security implications of their emergence. The report: (1) Defines what HACCAs are and forecasts when they might arrive, establishing a clear framework for an autonomous cyber agent that can operate across the full attack lifecycle without meaningful human direction; (2) Identifies five core operational tactics, detailing how HACCAs could sustain themselves in the wild, from autonomous infrastructure setup and credential harvesting to detection evasion and adaptive shutdown avoidance; (3) Analyzes the strategic implications, including how HACCAs could intensify interstate cyber competition, lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated operations, and proliferate advanced offensive capabilities to criminal groups and less-resourced state actors; (4) Flags two tail risks that deserve serious attention: the potential for autonomous cyber operations to trigger inadvertent cyber-nuclear escalation, and the possibility of sustained loss of control over rogue HACCA deployments; (5) Proposes seven policy recommendations across three goals: understanding the emerging threat, defending against HACCAs, and ensuring their responsible development and deployment.

cs.CY

Asymmetry by Design: Boosting Cyber Defenders with Differential Access to AI

As AI-enabled cyber capabilities become more advanced, we propose "differential access" as a strategy to tilt the cybersecurity balance toward defense by shaping access to these capabilities. We introduce three possible approaches that form a continuum, becoming progressively more restrictive for higher-risk capabilities: Promote Access, Manage Access, and Deny by Default. However, a key principle across all approaches is the need to prioritize defender access, even in the most restrictive scenarios, so that defenders can prepare for adversaries gaining access to similar capabilities. This report provides a process to help frontier AI developers choose and implement one of the three differential access approaches, including considerations based on a model's cyber capabilities, a defender's maturity and role, and strategic and technical implementation details. We also present four example schemes for defenders to reference, demonstrating how differential access provides value across various capability and defender levels, and suggest directions for further research.

cs.CR

Expert Survey: AI Reliability & Security Research Priorities

Our survey of 53 specialists across 105 AI reliability and security research areas identifies the most promising research prospects to guide strategic AI R&D investment. As companies are seeking to develop AI systems with broadly human-level capabilities, research on reliability and security is urgently needed to ensure AI's benefits can be safely and broadly realized and prevent severe harms. This study is the first to quantify expert priorities across a comprehensive taxonomy of AI safety and security research directions and to produce a data-driven ranking of their potential impact. These rankings may support evidence-based decisions about how to effectively deploy resources toward AI reliability and security research.

cs.CY

AI Agent Governance: A Field Guide

This report serves as an accessible guide to the emerging field of AI agent governance. Agents - AI systems that can autonomously achieve goals in the world, with little to no explicit human instruction about how to do so - are a major focus of leading tech companies, AI start-ups, and investors. If these development efforts are successful, some industry leaders claim we could soon see a world where millions or billions of agents autonomously perform complex tasks across society. Society is largely unprepared for this development. A future where capable agents are deployed en masse could see transformative benefits to society but also profound and novel risks. Currently, the exploration of agent governance questions and the development of associated interventions remain in their infancy. Only a few researchers, primarily in civil society organizations, public research institutes, and frontier AI companies, are actively working on these challenges.

cs.CY

Coordinated Disclosure of Dual-Use Capabilities: An Early Warning System for Advanced AI

Advanced AI systems may be developed which exhibit capabilities that present significant risks to public safety or security. They may also exhibit capabilities that may be applied defensively in a wide set of domains, including (but not limited to) developing societal resilience against AI threats. We propose Coordinated Disclosure of Dual-Use Capabilities (CDDC) as a process to guide early information-sharing between advanced AI developers, US government agencies, and other private sector actors about these capabilities. The process centers around an information clearinghouse (the "coordinator") which receives evidence of dual-use capabilities from finders via mandatory and/or voluntary reporting pathways, and passes noteworthy reports to defenders for follow-up (i.e., further analysis and response). This aims to provide the US government, dual-use foundation model developers, and other actors with an overview of AI capabilities that could significantly impact public safety and security, as well as maximal time to respond.

cs.CY