arXiv subjects

James Booth

Publications and source records attributed to James Booth.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Geospatial Diffusion-based Evolution Synthesis (GeoDES) for Storm-Centered Weather Augmentation

While machine learning-based weather models hold significant promise, they struggle to predict the detailed structure of large-scale weather systems such as cyclonic storms. Regional models are constrained by limited historical records within fixed geographic boundaries, while global models are computationally expensive and often operate at resolutions too coarse to capture fine-grained storm dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Geospatial Diffusion-based Evolution Synthesis (GeoDES) model, a custom image-to-video diffusion model. By focusing generation strictly on the evolving storm structure, GeoDES synthesizes physically consistent, high-fidelity weather events suitable for stress-testing forecast models and expanding meteorological datasets. Evaluations demonstrate that GeoDES outperforms prior methods on key metrics, achieving $52\%$ lower Peak Vorticity Error and $8\%$ higher Anomaly Correlation Coefficient than the next strongest methods on the North Atlantic test set.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

An Integrated Forecasting Prototype for Emergency Department Boarding Time to Support Proactive Operational Decision Making

Overcrowding in emergency departments (ED) remains a persistent operational challenge worldwide, causing delays in care delivery and downstream congestion. ED boarding time, defined as the duration admitted patients remain in the ED while awaiting inpatient bed placement, is a key indicator of this congestion. Predicting ED boarding time in advance enables proactive operational decision making before congestion escalates. We developed and evaluated a multi-horizon time series forecasting framework to predict ED boarding time at 6, 8, 10, 12, and 24-hour horizons. Real-world data from a university-affiliated urban hospital in the United States were utilized and integrated with external contextual data sources, including weather, holidays, and major local events. Decomposition-based Linear (DLinear) and Normalization-based Linear (NLinear) time series forecasting deep learning models showed superior performance across multiple horizons. Models were also evaluated under extreme congestion scenarios characterized by elevated boarding times. In addition, a Machine Learning Operations (MLOps) web application prototype was developed to support translation of the forecasting framework into practice through integrated data ingestion, forecast visualization, experimentation, and retraining.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Fairness Constraints in High-Dimensional Generalized Linear Models

Most fairness-aware learning methods assume that sensitive attributes are observed, an assumption that may fail due to privacy, legal, or data-collection constraints. We develop a framework for fairness-aware generalized linear models when the sensitive attribute is latent, possibly multi-category, and the predictors may be high-dimensional. Candidate proxy variables are modeled using Gaussian mixtures for continuous predictors and product-multinomial mixtures for categorical predictors. The resulting posterior group-membership probabilities are used to residualize the predictors and reduce their association with the latent sensitive structure. For continuous outcomes, we use constrained least squares to limit the contribution of the estimated sensitive attribute to prediction variability. For binary outcomes, we use penalized logistic regression to reduce dependence between predicted probabilities and estimated group membership. In high-dimensional settings, the procedure is combined with SEMMS variable selection to obtain sparse models. We establish identifiability and latent-class recovery results for Gaussian and categorical mixtures and derive expressions that quantify the loss of predictive power after residualization.Simulations and real-data applications demonstrate favorable accuracy-fairness performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Large-scale Codec Avatars: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Large-scale Avatar Pretraining

High-quality 3D avatar modeling faces a critical trade-off between fidelity and generalization. On the one hand, multi-view studio data enables high-fidelity modeling of humans with precise control over expressions and poses, but it struggles to generalize to real-world data due to limited scale and the domain gap between the studio environment and the real world. On the other hand, recent large-scale avatar models trained on millions of in-the-wild samples show promise for generalization across a wide range of identities, yet the resulting avatars are often of low-quality due to inherent 3D ambiguities. To address this, we present Large-Scale Codec Avatars (LCA), a high-fidelity, full-body 3D avatar model that generalizes to world-scale populations in a feedforward manner, enabling efficient inference. Inspired by the success of large language models and vision foundation models, we present, for the first time, a pre/post-training paradigm for 3D avatar modeling at scale: we pretrain on 1M in-the-wild videos to learn broad priors over appearance and geometry, then post-train on high-quality curated data to enhance expressivity and fidelity. LCA generalizes across hair styles, clothing, and demographics while providing precise, fine-grained facial expressions and finger-level articulation control, with strong identity preservation. Notably, we observe emergent generalization to relightability and loose garment support to unconstrained inputs, and zero-shot robustness to stylized imagery, despite the absence of direct supervision.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Deep Learning-Based Forecasting of Boarding Patient Counts to Address ED Overcrowding

This study presents a deep learning-based framework for predicting emergency department (ED) boarding counts six hours in advance using only operational and contextual data, without patient-level information. Data from ED tracking systems, inpatient census, weather, holidays, and local events were aggregated hourly and processed with comprehensive feature engineering. The mean ED boarding count was 28.7 (standard deviation = 11.2). Multiple deep learning models, including ResNetPlus, TSTPlus, and TSiTPlus, were trained and optimized using Optuna, with TSTPlus achieving the best results (mean absolute error = 4.30, mean squared error = 29.47, R2 = 0.79). The framework accurately forecasted boarding counts, including during extreme periods, and demonstrated that broader input features improve predictive accuracy. This approach supports proactive hospital management and offers a practical method for mitigating ED overcrowding.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Assessing the Impact of External and Internal Factors on Emergency Department Overcrowding

Study Objective: To analyze the factors influencing Emergency Department (ED) overcrowding by examining the impacts of operational, environmental, and external variables, including weather conditions and football games. Methods: This study integrates ED tracking and hospital census data from a southeastern U.S. academic medical center (2019-2023) with data from external sources, including weather, football events, and federal holidays. The dependent variable is the hourly waiting count in the ED. Seven regression models were developed to assess the effects of different predictors such as weather conditions, hospital census, federal holidays, and football games across different timestamps. Results: Some weather conditions significantly increased ED crowding in the Baseline Model, while federal holidays and weekends consistently reduced waiting counts. Boarding count positively correlated with ED crowding when they are concurrent, but earlier boarding count (3-6 hours before) showed significant negative associations, reducing subsequent waiting counts. Hospital census exhibited a negative association in the Baseline Model but shifted to a positive effect in other models, reflecting its time-dependent influence on ED operations. Football games 12 hours before significantly increased waiting counts, while games 12 and 24 hours after had no significant effects. Conclusion: This study highlights the importance of incorporating both operational and non-operational factors (e.g., weather) to understand ED patient flow. Identifying robust predictors such as weather, federal holidays, boarding count, and hospital census can inform dynamic resource allocation strategies to mitigate ED overcrowding effectively.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

An Artificial Intelligence-Based Framework for Predicting Emergency Department Overcrowding: Development and Evaluation Study

Background: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding remains a major challenge, causing delays in care and increased operational strain. Hospital management often reacts to congestion after it occurs. Machine learning predictive modeling offers a proactive approach by forecasting patient flow metrics, such as waiting count, to improve resource planning and hospital efficiency. Objective: This study develops machine learning models to predict ED waiting room occupancy at two time scales. The hourly model forecasts the waiting count six hours ahead (e.g., a 1 PM prediction for 7 PM), while the daily model estimates the average waiting count for the next 24 hours (e.g., a 5 PM prediction for the following day's average). These tools support staffing decisions and enable earlier interventions to reduce overcrowding. Methods: Data from a partner hospital's ED in the southeastern United States were used, integrating internal metrics and external features. Eleven machine learning algorithms, including traditional and deep learning models, were trained and evaluated. Feature combinations were optimized, and performance was assessed across varying patient volumes and hours. Results: TSiTPlus achieved the best hourly prediction (MAE: 4.19, MSE: 29.32). The mean hourly waiting count was 18.11, with a standard deviation of 9.77. Accuracy varied by hour, with MAEs ranging from 2.45 (11 PM) to 5.45 (8 PM). Extreme case analysis at one, two, and three standard deviations above the mean showed MAEs of 6.16, 10.16, and 15.59, respectively. For daily predictions, XCMPlus performed best (MAE: 2.00, MSE: 6.64), with a daily mean of 18.11 and standard deviation of 4.51. Conclusions: These models accurately forecast ED waiting room occupancy and support proactive resource allocation. Their implementation has the potential to improve patient flow and reduce overcrowding in emergency care settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Mixed Effect Modeling and Variable Selection for Quantile Regression

It is known that the estimating equations for quantile regression (QR) can be solved using an EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent generalized inverse-Gaussian variables. This fact is exploited here to extend QR to allow for random effects in the linear predictor. Convergence of the algorithm in this setting is established by showing that it is a generalized alternating minimization (GAM) procedure. Another modification of the EM algorithm also allows us to adapt a recently proposed method for variable selection in mean regression models to the QR setting. Simulations show the resulting method significantly outperforms variable selection in QR models using the lasso penalty. Applications to real data include a frailty QR analysis of hospital stays, and variable selection for age at onset of lung cancer and for riboflavin production rate using high-dimensional gene expression arrays for prediction.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

A Scalable Empirical Bayes Approach to Variable Selection in Generalized Linear Models

A new empirical Bayes approach to variable selection in the context of generalized linear models is developed. The proposed algorithm scales to situations in which the number of putative explanatory variables is very large, possibly much larger than the number of responses. The coefficients in the linear predictor are modeled as a three-component mixture allowing the explanatory variables to have a random positive effect on the response, a random negative effect, or no effect. A key assumption is that only a small (but unknown) fraction of the candidate variables have a non-zero effect. This assumption, in addition to treating the coefficients as random effects facilitates an approach that is computationally efficient. In particular, the number of parameters that have to be estimated is small, and remains constant regardless of the number of explanatory variables. The model parameters are estimated using a Generalized Alternating Maximization algorithm which is scalable, and leads to significantly faster convergence compared with simulation-based fully Bayesian methods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2017

3D Face Morphable Models "In-the-Wild"

3D Morphable Models (3DMMs) are powerful statistical models of 3D facial shape and texture, and among the state-of-the-art methods for reconstructing facial shape from single images. With the advent of new 3D sensors, many 3D facial datasets have been collected containing both neutral as well as expressive faces. However, all datasets are captured under controlled conditions. Thus, even though powerful 3D facial shape models can be learnt from such data, it is difficult to build statistical texture models that are sufficient to reconstruct faces captured in unconstrained conditions ("in-the-wild"). In this paper, we propose the first, to the best of our knowledge, "in-the-wild" 3DMM by combining a powerful statistical model of facial shape, which describes both identity and expression, with an "in-the-wild" texture model. We show that the employment of such an "in-the-wild" texture model greatly simplifies the fitting procedure, because there is no need to optimize with regards to the illumination parameters. Furthermore, we propose a new fast algorithm for fitting the 3DMM in arbitrary images. Finally, we have captured the first 3D facial database with relatively unconstrained conditions and report quantitative evaluations with state-of-the-art performance. Complementary qualitative reconstruction results are demonstrated on standard "in-the-wild" facial databases. An open source implementation of our technique is released as part of the Menpo Project.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2014

Penalized versus constrained generalized eigenvalue problems

We investigate the difference between using an $\ell_1$ penalty versus an $\ell_1$ constraint in generalized eigenvalue problems, such as principal component analysis and discriminant analysis. Our main finding is that an $\ell_1$ penalty may fail to provide very sparse solutions; a severe disadvantage for variable selection that can be remedied by using an $\ell_1$ constraint. Our claims are supported both by empirical evidence and theoretical analysis. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of an $\ell_1$ constraint in the context of discriminant analysis and principal component analysis.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2011

Laplace Approximated EM Microarray Analysis: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Comparative Microarray Experiments

A two-groups mixed-effects model for the comparison of (normalized) microarray data from two treatment groups is considered. Most competing parametric methods that have appeared in the literature are obtained as special cases or by minor modification of the proposed model. Approximate maximum likelihood fitting is accomplished via a fast and scalable algorithm, which we call LEMMA (Laplace approximated EM Microarray Analysis). The posterior odds of treatment $\times$ gene interactions, derived from the model, involve shrinkage estimates of both the interactions and of the gene specific error variances. Genes are classified as being associated with treatment based on the posterior odds and the local false discovery rate (f.d.r.) with a fixed cutoff. Our model-based approach also allows one to declare the non-null status of a gene by controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). It is shown in a detailed simulation study that the approach outperforms well-known competitors. We also apply the proposed methodology to two previously analyzed microarray examples. Extensions of the proposed method to paired treatments and multiple treatments are also discussed.

stat.ME↗