arXiv subjects

James Evans

Publications and source records attributed to James Evans.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Language Model Perplexity Predicts Scientific Surprise and Transformative Impact

Scientific breakthroughs typically emerge through the surprising violation of established research ideas, yet quantifying surprise has remained elusive because it requires a coherent model of all contemporary scientific worldviews. Deep neural networks like large language models (LLMs) are arbitrary function approximators tuned to consistently expect the expressions and ideas on which they were trained and those semantically nearby. This suggests that as LLMs improve at generating plausible text, so the perplexity or improbability a text sequence would be generated by them should come to better predict scientific surprise and disruptive importance. Analyzing over 2 million papers across multiple disciplines published immediately following the training of 5 prominent open LLMs, here we show that higher perplexity scores systematically predict papers that receive more variable review ratings, longer editorial delays, and greater reviewer uncertainty. The most perplexing papers exhibit bimodal outcomes: disproportionately represented among the most celebrated scientific achievements and also the most discounted. High-perplexity papers tend to be published in journals with more variable impact factors and receive fewer short-term citations but in prestigious venues that bet on long-term impact. They also generate more interdisciplinary engagement portending long-term influence, and are more likely to have been supported by speculative funders like DARPA versus the NIH. Interestingly, we find the opposite pattern for humanities research, where the least surprising work is the most celebrated and cited. Our findings reveal that computational measures of corpus-wide linguistic surprise can forecast the reception and ultimate influence of scientific ideas, offering a scalable approach to recognize and generate potentially transformative research that challenge conventional scientific thinking.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Subjective Perspectives within Learned Representations Predict High-Impact Innovation

Existing studies of innovation emphasize the power of social structures to shape innovation capacity. Emerging machine learning approaches, however, enable us to model innovators' personal perspectives and interpersonal innovation opportunities as a function of their prior experience. We theorize and then quantify subjective perspectives and their interaction based on innovator positions within the geometric space of concepts inscribed by dynamic machine-learned language representations. Using data on millions of scientists, inventors, screenplay writers, entrepreneurs, and Wikipedia contributors across their respective creative domains, here we show that measured subjective perspectives predict which ideas individuals and groups will creatively attend to and successfully combine in the future. Across all cases and time periods we examine, when perspective diversity is decomposed as the difference between collaborators' perspectives on their creation, and background diversity as the difference between their experiences, the former consistently anticipates creative achievement while the latter portends its opposite. We analyze a natural experiment and simulate creative collaborations between AI agents designed with various perspective and background diversity, which support our observational findings. We explore mechanisms underlying these findings and identify how successful collaborators leverage common language to weave together diverse experiences obtained through trajectories of prior work. These perspectives converge and provoke one another to innovate. We examine the significance of these findings for team formation and research policy.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

LLM Social Simulations Are a Promising Research Method

Accurate and verifiable large language model (LLM) simulations of human research subjects promise an accessible data source for understanding human behavior and training new AI systems. However, results to date have been limited, and few social scientists have adopted this method. In this position paper, we argue that the promise of LLM social simulations can be achieved by addressing five tractable challenges. We ground our argument in a review of empirical comparisons between LLMs and human research subjects, commentaries on the topic, and related work. We identify promising directions, including context-rich prompting and fine-tuning with social science datasets. We believe that LLM social simulations can already be used for pilot and exploratory studies, and more widespread use may soon be possible with rapidly advancing LLM capabilities. Researchers should prioritize developing conceptual models and iterative evaluations to make the best use of new AI systems.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Advancing the Scientific Method with Large Language Models: From Hypothesis to Discovery

With recent Nobel Prizes recognising AI contributions to science, Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming scientific research by enhancing productivity and reshaping the scientific method. LLMs are now involved in experimental design, data analysis, and workflows, particularly in chemistry and biology. However, challenges such as hallucinations and reliability persist. In this contribution, we review how Large Language Models (LLMs) are redefining the scientific method and explore their potential applications across different stages of the scientific cycle, from hypothesis testing to discovery. We conclude that, for LLMs to serve as relevant and effective creative engines and productivity enhancers, their deep integration into all steps of the scientific process should be pursued in collaboration and alignment with human scientific goals, with clear evaluation metrics. The transition to AI-driven science raises ethical questions about creativity, oversight, and responsibility. With careful guidance, LLMs could evolve into creative engines, driving transformative breakthroughs across scientific disciplines responsibly and effectively. However, the scientific community must also decide how much it leaves to LLMs to drive science, even when associations with 'reasoning', mostly currently undeserved, are made in exchange for the potential to explore hypothesis and solution regions that might otherwise remain unexplored by human exploration alone.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Big Data and the Computational Social Science of Entrepreneurship and Innovation

As large-scale social data explode and machine-learning methods evolve, scholars of entrepreneurship and innovation face new research opportunities but also unique challenges. This chapter discusses the difficulties of leveraging large-scale data to identify technological and commercial novelty, document new venture origins, and forecast competition between new technologies and commercial forms. It suggests how scholars can take advantage of new text, network, image, audio, and video data in two distinct ways that advance innovation and entrepreneurship research. First, machine-learning models, combined with large-scale data, enable the construction of precision measurements that function as system-level observatories of innovation and entrepreneurship across human societies. Second, new artificial intelligence models fueled by big data generate 'digital doubles' of technology and business, forming laboratories for virtual experimentation about innovation and entrepreneurship processes and policies. The chapter argues for the advancement of theory development and testing in entrepreneurship and innovation by coupling big data with big models.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Synthesis of innovation and obsolescence

Innovation and obsolescence describe the dynamics of ever-churning social and biological systems, from the development of economic markets to scientific and technological progress to biological evolution. They have been widely discussed, but in isolation, leading to fragmented modeling of their dynamics. This poses a problem for connecting and building on what we know about their shared mechanisms. Here we collectively propose a conceptual and mathematical framework to transcend field boundaries and to explore unifying theoretical frameworks and open challenges. We ring an optimistic note for weaving together disparate threads with key ideas from the wide and largely disconnected literature by focusing on the duality of innovation and obsolescence and by proposing a mathematical framework to unify the metaphors between constitutive elements.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Localized Cultural Knowledge is Conserved and Controllable in Large Language Models

Just as humans display language patterns influenced by their native tongue when speaking new languages, LLMs often default to English-centric responses even when generating in other languages. Nevertheless, we observe that local cultural information persists within the models and can be readily activated for cultural customization. We first demonstrate that explicitly providing cultural context in prompts significantly improves the models' ability to generate culturally localized responses. We term the disparity in model performance with versus without explicit cultural context the explicit-implicit localization gap, indicating that while cultural knowledge exists within LLMs, it may not naturally surface in multilingual interactions if cultural context is not explicitly provided. Despite the explicit prompting benefit, however, the answers reduce in diversity and tend toward stereotypes. Second, we identify an explicit cultural customization vector, conserved across all non-English languages we explore, which enables LLMs to be steered from the synthetic English cultural world-model toward each non-English cultural world. Steered responses retain the diversity of implicit prompting and reduce stereotypes to dramatically improve the potential for customization. We discuss the implications of explicit cultural customization for understanding the conservation of alternative cultural world models within LLMs, and their controllable utility for translation, cultural customization, and the possibility of making the explicit implicit through soft control for expanded LLM function and appeal.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Linear Representations of Political Perspective Emerge in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated the ability to generate text that realistically reflects a range of different subjective human perspectives. This paper studies how LLMs are seemingly able to reflect more liberal versus more conservative viewpoints among other political perspectives in American politics. We show that LLMs possess linear representations of political perspectives within activation space, wherein more similar perspectives are represented closer together. To do so, we probe the attention heads across the layers of three open transformer-based LLMs (Llama-2-7b-chat, Mistral-7b-instruct, Vicuna-7b). We first prompt models to generate text from the perspectives of different U.S. lawmakers. We then identify sets of attention heads whose activations linearly predict those lawmakers' DW-NOMINATE scores, a widely-used and validated measure of political ideology. We find that highly predictive heads are primarily located in the middle layers, often speculated to encode high-level concepts and tasks. Using probes only trained to predict lawmakers' ideology, we then show that the same probes can predict measures of news outlets' slant from the activations of models prompted to simulate text from those news outlets. These linear probes allow us to visualize, interpret, and monitor ideological stances implicitly adopted by an LLM as it generates open-ended responses. Finally, we demonstrate that by applying linear interventions to these attention heads, we can steer the model outputs toward a more liberal or conservative stance. Overall, our research suggests that LLMs possess a high-level linear representation of American political ideology and that by leveraging recent advances in mechanistic interpretability, we can identify, monitor, and steer the subjective perspective underlying generated text.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Differential impact from individual versus collective misinformation tagging on the diversity of Twitter (X) information engagement and mobility

Fears about the destabilizing impact of misinformation online have motivated individuals and platforms to respond. Individuals have increasingly challenged others' online claims with fact-checks in pursuit of a healthier information ecosystem and to break down echo chambers of self-reinforcing opinion. Using Twitter (now X) data, here we show the consequences of individual misinformation tagging: tagged posters had explored novel political information and expanded topical interests immediately prior, but being tagged caused posters to retreat into information bubbles. These unintended consequences were softened by a collective verification system for misinformation moderation. In Twitter's new feature, Community Notes, misinformation tagging was peer-reviewed by other fact-checkers before revelation to the poster. With collective misinformation tagging, posters were less likely to retreat from diverse information engagement. Detailed comparison demonstrated differences in toxicity, sentiment, readability, and delay in individual versus collective misinformation tagging messages. These findings provide evidence for differential impacts from individual versus collective moderation strategies on the diversity of information engagement and mobility across the information ecosystem.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2024

Hidden Persuaders: LLMs' Political Leaning and Their Influence on Voters

How could LLMs influence our democracy? We investigate LLMs' political leanings and the potential influence of LLMs on voters by conducting multiple experiments in a U.S. presidential election context. Through a voting simulation, we first demonstrate 18 open- and closed-weight LLMs' political preference for a Democratic nominee over a Republican nominee. We show how this leaning towards the Democratic nominee becomes more pronounced in instruction-tuned models compared to their base versions by analyzing their responses to candidate-policy related questions. We further explore the potential impact of LLMs on voter choice by conducting an experiment with 935 U.S. registered voters. During the experiments, participants interacted with LLMs (Claude-3, Llama-3, and GPT-4) over five exchanges. The experiment results show a shift in voter choices towards the Democratic nominee following LLM interaction, widening the voting margin from 0.7% to 4.6%, even though LLMs were not asked to persuade users to support the Democratic nominee during the discourse. This effect is larger than many previous studies on the persuasiveness of political campaigns, which have shown minimal effects in presidential elections. Many users also expressed a desire for further political interaction with LLMs. Which aspects of LLM interactions drove these shifts in voter choice requires further study. Lastly, we explore how a safety method can make LLMs more politically neutral, while raising the question of whether such neutrality is truly the path forward.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Can Large Language Model Agents Simulate Human Trust Behavior?

Large Language Model (LLM) agents have been increasingly adopted as simulation tools to model humans in social science and role-playing applications. However, one fundamental question remains: can LLM agents really simulate human behavior? In this paper, we focus on one critical and elemental behavior in human interactions, trust, and investigate whether LLM agents can simulate human trust behavior. We first find that LLM agents generally exhibit trust behavior, referred to as agent trust, under the framework of Trust Games, which are widely recognized in behavioral economics. Then, we discover that GPT-4 agents manifest high behavioral alignment with humans in terms of trust behavior, indicating the feasibility of simulating human trust behavior with LLM agents. In addition, we probe the biases of agent trust and differences in agent trust towards other LLM agents and humans. We also explore the intrinsic properties of agent trust under conditions including external manipulations and advanced reasoning strategies. Our study provides new insights into the behaviors of LLM agents and the fundamental analogy between LLMs and humans beyond value alignment. We further illustrate broader implications of our discoveries for applications where trust is paramount.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Computational Life: How Well-formed, Self-replicating Programs Emerge from Simple Interaction

The fields of Origin of Life and Artificial Life both question what life is and how it emerges from a distinct set of "pre-life" dynamics. One common feature of most substrates where life emerges is a marked shift in dynamics when self-replication appears. While there are some hypotheses regarding how self-replicators arose in nature, we know very little about the general dynamics, computational principles, and necessary conditions for self-replicators to emerge. This is especially true on "computational substrates" where interactions involve logical, mathematical, or programming rules. In this paper we take a step towards understanding how self-replicators arise by studying several computational substrates based on various simple programming languages and machine instruction sets. We show that when random, non self-replicating programs are placed in an environment lacking any explicit fitness landscape, self-replicators tend to arise. We demonstrate how this occurs due to random interactions and self-modification, and can happen with and without background random mutations. We also show how increasingly complex dynamics continue to emerge following the rise of self-replicators. Finally, we show a counterexample of a minimalistic programming language where self-replicators are possible, but so far have not been observed to arise.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2024

Evolving AI Collectives to Enhance Human Diversity and Enable Self-Regulation

Large language model behavior is shaped by the language of those with whom they interact. This capacity and their increasing prevalence online portend that they will intentionally or unintentionally "program" one another and form emergent AI subjectivities, relationships, and collectives. Here, we call upon the research community to investigate these "societies" of interacting artificial intelligences to increase their rewards and reduce their risks for human society and the health of online environments. We use a small "community" of models and their evolving outputs to illustrate how such emergent, decentralized AI collectives can spontaneously expand the bounds of human diversity and reduce the risk of toxic, anti-social behavior online. Finally, we discuss opportunities for AI cross-moderation and address ethical issues and design challenges associated with creating and maintaining free-formed AI collectives.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

The Paradox of Collective Certainty in Science

We explore a paradox of collective action and certainty in science wherein the more scientists research together, the less that work contributes to the value of their collective certainty. When scientists address similar problems and share data, methods, and collaborators, their understanding of and trust in their colleagues' research rises, a quality required for scientific advance. This increases the positive reinforcement scientists receive for shared beliefs as they become more dependent on their colleagues' knowledge, interests, and findings. This collective action increases the potential for scientists to reside in epistemic ''bubbles'' that limit their capacity to make new discoveries or have their discoveries generalize. In short, as scientists grow closer, their experience of scientific validity rises as the likelihood of genuine replication falls, creating a trade-off between certainty and truth.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

China's Rising Leadership in Global Science

Major shifts in the global system of science and technology are destabilizing the global status order and demonstrating the capacity for emerging countries like China and India to exert greater influence. In order to measure changes in the global scientific system, we develop a framework to assess the hierarchical position of countries in the international scientific collaboration network. Using a machine-learning model to identify the leaders of 5,966,623 scientific teams that collaborated across international borders, we show that Chinese scientists substantially narrowed their leadership deficit with scientists from the US, UK, and EU between 1990 and 2023 in absolute terms. Consequently, China and the US are on track to reach an equal number of team leaders engaged in bilateral collaborations between 2027 and 2028. Nevertheless, Chinese progress has been considerably slower in per-collaborator terms: after adjusting for the number of non-leaders from each country, our models do not predict parity between the US and China until after 2087. These dynamics extend to 11 critical technology areas central to ongoing diplomacy between the two nations, such AI, Semiconductors, and Advanced Communications, and to China's scientific leadership with respect to the European Union and the United Kingdom. Thus, while China's elite scientists are achieving leadership in the international scientific community, China's scientific enterprise continues to face developmental constraints. We conclude by reviewing several steps that Chinese science is taking to overcome these constraints, by increasing its engagement in scientific training and research in signatory nations to the Belt and Road Initiative.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Being Together in Place as a Catalyst for Scientific Advance

The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated social distancing at every level of society, including universities and research institutes, raising essential questions concerning the continuing importance of physical proximity for scientific and scholarly advance. Using customized author surveys about the intellectual influence of referenced work on scientists' own papers, combined with precise measures of geographical and semantic distance between focal and referenced works, we find that being at the same institution is strongly associated with intellectual influence on scientists' and scholars' published work. However, this influence increases with intellectual distance: the more different the referenced work done by colleagues at one's institution, the more influential it is on one's own. Universities worldwide constitute places where people doing very different work engage in sustained interactions through departments, committees, seminars, and communities. These interactions come to uniquely influence their published research, suggesting the need to replace rather than displace diverse engagements for sustainable advance.

cs.DL↗

arXiv2023

The Future of Fundamental Science Led by Generative Closed-Loop Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in machine learning and AI, including Generative AI and LLMs, are disrupting technological innovation, product development, and society as a whole. AI's contribution to technology can come from multiple approaches that require access to large training data sets and clear performance evaluation criteria, ranging from pattern recognition and classification to generative models. Yet, AI has contributed less to fundamental science in part because large data sets of high-quality data for scientific practice and model discovery are more difficult to access. Generative AI, in general, and Large Language Models in particular, may represent an opportunity to augment and accelerate the scientific discovery of fundamental deep science with quantitative models. Here we explore and investigate aspects of an AI-driven, automated, closed-loop approach to scientific discovery, including self-driven hypothesis generation and open-ended autonomous exploration of the hypothesis space. Integrating AI-driven automation into the practice of science would mitigate current problems, including the replication of findings, systematic production of data, and ultimately democratisation of the scientific process. Realising these possibilities requires a vision for augmented AI coupled with a diversity of AI approaches able to deal with fundamental aspects of causality analysis and model discovery while enabling unbiased search across the space of putative explanations. These advances hold the promise to unleash AI's potential for searching and discovering the fundamental structure of our world beyond what human scientists have been able to achieve. Such a vision would push the boundaries of new fundamental science rather than automatize current workflows and instead open doors for technological innovation to tackle some of the greatest challenges facing humanity today.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Spectral theory of regular sequences: parametrisation and spectral characterisation

We extend the existence of ghost measures beyond nonnegative primitive regular sequences to a large class of nonnegative real-valued regular sequences. In the general case, where the ghost measure is not unique, we show that they can be parametrised by a compact abelian group. For a subclass of these measures, by replacing primitivity with a commutativity condition, we show that these measures have an infinite convolution structure similar to Bernoulli convolutions. Using this structure, we show that these ghost measures have pure spectral type. Further, we provide results towards a classification of the spectral type based on inequalities involving the spectral radius, joint spectral radius, and Lyapunov exponent of the underlying set of matrices. In the case that the underlying measure is pure point, we show that the support of the measure must be a subset of the rational numbers, a result that resolves a new case of the finiteness conjecture.

math.NT↗